2 Pages

still no Greensboro

12/9/2009 8:46:36 PM

Quote :

"Greensboro? Anyone? HELLOOOOOOOO?"

Sorry, I had to get dinner. But from what I saw on the not to be wholly trusted USAToday weather forecast map thingy had GSO getting wintery precip. Let me check some things and I will be able to give you a much better answer.

12/9/2009 8:50:22 PM

Greensboro may see some snow / freezing rain Saturday, but it shouldn't amount to too much.

12/10/2009 5:13:57 AM

I wouldn't worry too much about it in Greensboro. But then again I have to work so you can expect snow, ice pellets (sleet), freezing rain all interchanging at various intervals.

12/10/2009 6:45:43 AM

I am awaiting this mornings 12z run to see if there are any changes but my thinking is as follows (primarily based on last night's 0z run as of now). It appears the GFS is not handling the position of the parent high and moving it off shore instead of following the best confluence. I would be more in line with the CMC model's positioning which would keep it onshore. This would mean a better CAD wedge that would be able to be sustained for a longer period of time. GFS is also not showing much in the way of evaporative cooling with precip. onset which is bs considering the dewpoint depressions expected. In general it is a not a good model for cold air damming events anyway and often erodes the wedge too quickly. So with this in mind, despite the delay in precip. onset as compared to earlier model runs, I feel it is possible sleet/freezing rain will break out in north GA and interior SC later on saturday evening. In NC precip arrives overnight into early sunday morning. I feel sleet could also be seen from RDU west with perhaps even a few snowflakes mixed in over the triad and NW piedmont. The limiting factor at the start in NC may be limited QPF. In NC this mix will transition to more of a freezing rain scenario primarily west of the triangle and into the triad. There could be some ice accretion (glazing) in the piedmont southward into upstate SC. Eventually this probably will transition to plain rain as freezing rain is a self limiting process without constant Cold Air Advection. So if CAA is not sustaining the wedge the latent heat release from the glazing would push surface temps over freezing. It is important to note that this prediction would be one of low confidence right now based on how the models have been doing thus far with the system and the fact it is possible winter weather in NC (which is always a challenge). For winter weather fans this would be my most optimistic prediction if you want to see frozen precip.

12/10/2009 10:22:51 AM

ENTER key

12/10/2009 11:02:57 AM

^^I am not reading that shit.

12/10/2009 11:06:36 AM

^^ You wouldn't want to strain yourself now

12/10/2009 12:38:38 PM

lol, jesus dude.

PARAGRAPHS

12/10/2009 12:57:05 PM

12/10/2009 2:07:15 PM

Ok I got the memo. It won't happen again lol. I was writing this much like the NWS discussions appear (which don't pay too much attention to paragraphs in each section).

12/10/2009 5:31:33 PM

Thanks for the book report on 50 pages at SEWX forums.

12/10/2009 10:08:20 PM

lol

new graduate info dump

12/11/2009 5:47:23 AM

That's one of the benefits of this school that I don't think others here realize. Us, UNC-Asheville and now A&T in Greensboro offer a major in meteorology in this state.

12/11/2009 6:49:09 AM

Phelps do you post on those forums? Anyway I do post on easternuswx forums and I do talk with other meteorologists there so yes I do take what they say seriously. Many of them have years of experience that I can learn a hell of alot from. Alot of what I wrote was my own interpretation of the model runs but but I agreed with their thinking on the models poor handling of the parent high and did mention that.

*enter key used here*

As it stands this morning in short I think the triangle may see a brief period of frozen precip (sleet and freezing rain) very early on Sunday morning before becoming just a crappy cold rain ending Sunday afternoon.

*holy crap I am really liking this enter key thing. It is used here again!*

For Greensboro and the triad the transition to plain rain may take a little longer and there could be some minor glazing at the onset. They may even see some snowflakes mix in at the VERY beginning. E

*One more time because it so much fun using this newly found key*

There are still plenty of things that can throw a wrench into the forecast since CAD events are generally poorly handled by the models. Alot will depend on precip. rates and just how fast the mid levels are really able to warm up. The overall point is if you want snow this isn't really the storm for you.

12/11/2009 10:35:52 AM

ok nerds, snow or no this weekend?

thumper is predicting 6 inches

[Edited on December 15, 2009 at 1:09 PM. Reason : a]

12/15/2009 1:06:22 PM

i was predicting 6 inches of something else

12/15/2009 1:10:39 PM

WE WILL HAVE NO DISCUSSIONS OF THAT SORT IN THE LOUNGE

12/15/2009 1:11:39 PM

you started it

and for the record, my office meteorologist said if things don't change then some models are showing 6 inches of snow this weekend in the Raleigh area. of course, you can't predict anything that far out, which is why I WASN'T GONNA SAY NOTHIN.

[Edited on December 15, 2009 at 1:12 PM. Reason : .]

12/15/2009 1:11:54 PM

Predictions of that magnitude are sure to land Fishel in the Fountain.

12/15/2009 1:24:49 PM

this kid has been out of NCSU meteorology school for 2 years at most

12/15/2009 1:25:47 PM

yes to snow plz

12/15/2009 1:25:53 PM

BULLSHIT!! its not even going to get below freezing this weekend.

12/15/2009 1:26:33 PM

there's like 8 models he looks at. 2 of them are predicting 6" and 11". he thinks it's nuts too. but THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE!!!

12/15/2009 1:27:38 PM

you should be spanked for spewing such dribble

12/15/2009 1:28:51 PM

how about you spank me when we get snow?

i mean, yeah sure, whatever dude.

12/15/2009 1:29:46 PM

not a damn thing is going to happen this weekend.

12/15/2009 4:41:01 PM

^

12/15/2009 4:43:31 PM

YOU JUST WAIT!!!!!

12/15/2009 5:24:15 PM

Models are trending towards a winter weather event. If you take today's models at face value, it will be both cold enough and wet enough to get anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow across the state.

We'll see.

And who the heck is ^ your office meteorologist? I probably taught him/her.



[Edited on December 15, 2009 at 7:55 PM. Reason : ehhhhhh]

12/15/2009 7:53:27 PM

i don’t know if meteorologists are still saying this, but a couple of years ago at least, they kept pointing out how for North Carolina, the models were piss-poor when considering snow.

12/15/2009 7:55:11 PM

Here you go. I'm sure nothing with the weather will change in 5 days. Everything will go down EXACTLY like this map says.

12/15/2009 9:33:26 PM

Nothing would make me happier than a lot of snow. But I'm don't believe it'll happen.

12/15/2009 10:34:10 PM

I like how the snow there is just over NC.

It’s like someone is screwing with the entire state.

12/15/2009 10:37:27 PM

Huffman had some good discussion about this.

http://www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m12d15-Wintery-weather-a-possibility-this-weekend-in-North-Carolina

[Edited on December 15, 2009 at 11:13 PM. Reason : .]

12/15/2009 11:13:10 PM

I don't know whether to hope for snow this weekend or not.

12/15/2009 11:40:17 PM

ITS MILLER TIME

Quote :

"i don’t know if meteorologists are still saying this, but a couple of years ago at least, they kept pointing out how for North Carolina, the models were piss-poor when considering snow. "

ya cyclones always hit the mountain of cold air and "jump it" redevloping over the ocean and racing the moisture away. You essentially see storms "teleport" past central north carolina.

12/15/2009 11:44:44 PM

any updates today?

12/16/2009 10:53:32 AM

my guy is at lunch (he works 5a to 1p so he takes lunch early)

i'll ask when he gets back

12/16/2009 10:56:09 AM

straight from the horse's mouth:

Quote :

"It looks like it may start a little earlier, so Friday afternoon starting out as rain then changing over to snow Friday night. If the models are correct we could see up to around 5 or 6 inches."

12/16/2009 11:34:30 AM

time to go get milk, bread, eggs, and beer

12/16/2009 12:04:39 PM

Quote :

"time to go get milk, bread, eggs, and beer"

fixed

12/16/2009 12:14:08 PM

it's not going to get cold enough on Friday for the ground to freeze. any snow that could potentially fall wouldn't stick anyway

12/16/2009 12:54:18 PM

^^truer words have never been spoken.

[Edited on December 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM. Reason : as long as it collects on cars, that's enough for a snowball fight!]

12/16/2009 12:55:02 PM

Quote :

"it's not going to get cold enough on Friday for the ground to freeze. any snow that could potentially fall wouldn't stick anyway "

Yes, it could.

12/16/2009 7:33:57 PM

i refuse to say I TOLD YOU SO until there's powder on the ground

12/16/2009 7:47:31 PM

I wish I didnt know about this, cause everytime I hear its going to snow, it never does . and when I never hear about it and just look out the window at 3am is when it actually snows

12/16/2009 7:48:54 PM

I would love for it to snow, but it isn't gonna happen

12/16/2009 7:56:17 PM

thats the great thing about miller time. you could get all rain or you could get two feet of snow. anything in between is fair game.

12/16/2009 8:01:03 PM

if it does anything at least exams will be over with

12/16/2009 8:45:14 PM