Quote :

"It reiterates the point earlier that we can either get Mubarak, who doesn’t seem like the nicest guy, or the Muslim Brotherhood, which would be a few steps backwards."

That's only going to be the case if the transition is immediate and disorderly. If elections are announced and a wide range of parties are allowed to participate, it is possible that the liberal groups long crushed by Mubarak's regime will out perform the Brotherhood.

[Edited on January 30, 2011 at 12:59 PM. Reason : ]

1/30/2011 12:47:18 PM

^ The article seems to say though that because the muslim brotherhood has been the only real opposition, other “political parties” haven’t been allowed to flourish, and they would have a very significant advantage.

Just because an election is “free” and “open” doesn’t really mean anything. We have free and open elections, and the libertarians/greens/whoever are still squeezed out by democrats and republicans.

1/30/2011 5:02:07 PM

^ You have it backwards; the Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed in Egypt for the past 30 years, while other opposition groups such as the April 6th movement have flourished.

The Muslim Brotherhood wasn't even involved in the protests until Friday, and they have recognized ElBaradei as the leader and chief negotiator in opposition to Mubarak's rule. They realize the need to put political reform before religious squabbles at this time.


[Edited on January 30, 2011 at 9:14 PM. Reason : 2]

1/30/2011 9:07:42 PM

^ i'm not saying you're wrong, but where are you getting that information from? The LA Times has this to say:

Quote :

"Egypt has a powerful military that has kept the ruling party in place for more than 30 years. Its largest and best-organized opposition group is the banned Muslim Brotherhood. In this environment, other opposition groups have not been able to develop, and that absence could make a democratic transition difficult."

1/30/2011 10:55:06 PM

I disagree. In Egypt, military service is mandatory regardless of loyalty. As such, it is the party run ultra-political police force which maintains the regime. The protesting Egyptians honestly believe the military will side with them. Anecdotal, it even seems to be the case. One army officer proclaimed that they would join the protesters if they were given orders to shoot at the protesters.

Quote :

"If Robb's scenario turns out to be true, Egypt has inverted the Hobbesian story of the state: The police are spreading disorder and the voluntary sector is containing it."

1/30/2011 11:46:42 PM

There is a history throughout the Muslim world -- and within Egypt itself -- of the military being the only institution with broad enough legitimacy to take over after a shitty government. Typically, the military doesn't do a half-bad job (at least compared with the predecessor)...but a military government also won't work in the long run and has a tendency to lose ground, over time, to Islamist groups.

I think it's close to a given that the Egyptian Army takes over. ElBaradei has a high degree of popularity, but doesn't lead an organized political group. The Brotherhood, meanwhile, has had its organization capacity suppressed for decades and generally only represents a minority of the people. The armed forces have the power and legitimacy to take over and form an "interim" government.

What happens at that point is crucial. Either they set up a competent system for elections, or they hold onto the country. Both have their risks.

1/31/2011 12:02:22 AM

Nothing I like more than democratically-elected radical muslims

1/31/2011 12:46:48 AM

I have met hundreds of Egyptians in my life, and of those only about 10% would seem to be the type who would vote for the Brotherhood. Granted, most of the people I have met have been from the middle and upper-middle classes, mostly professionals such as engineers, professors, managers, and doctors (and "executive assistants"). Looking at such socioeconomic classes, I would say the Brotherhood would lose in any election.

However, the majority of people are poor, living in small towns and villages. They are also probably more religious than city-dwelling professionals, but I do wonder if a significant number of them are religious enough to vote for the Brotherhood.

Either way, though, democracy is democracy, and it should be for every people and nation. Saying that countries where there is a chance of religious groups winning elections shouldn't have democracies and should be kept under secular/military dictatorships/kings, is hypocritical.

The people have to sort out who they want ruling them. If an Islamic party wins and the country suffers because of it, they will be booted out within the next couple of rounds.

1/31/2011 5:19:18 AM

Quote :

"Either way, though, democracy is democracy, and it should be for every people and nation. Saying that countries where there is a chance of religious groups winning elections shouldn't have democracies and should be kept under secular/military dictatorships/kings, is hypocritical. "

Hey man its been the American foreign policy for the last 50 years. We like to pretend we are the shining beacons of democracy who enjoy spreading the seeds of freedom throughout the world.
Realistically we are more than happy to support authoritarian regimes with friendly political and business relations, rather than let an anti-US secular or religious fundamentalist government take hold even if such government are elected democratically.

1/31/2011 8:10:16 AM

wow, Al Jazeera is painting a picture of a... rather upset crowd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzLBCV-cwjg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YkZNYuIQwI

I don't know if I have seen images of a crowd this upset before. And their message is quite clear of "we hate you Mabarak, leave". I imagine the French Revolution would have looked pretty similar to this.

As I understand it, commentators were not entirely sure if he would step down or not, but really.. if I were him, I would be as far away as I could get by now. Man, screw leading a nation, I would want to keep my F-ing head.

1/31/2011 9:02:48 AM

Quote :

"Either way, though, democracy is democracy, and it should be for every people and nation. Saying that countries where there is a chance of religious groups winning elections shouldn't have democracies and should be kept under secular/military dictatorships/kings, is hypocritical. "

So young and naive…

Democracy, for the most part, is just a guise for the already rich and powerful entrenched entities to keep and maintain power. They make you think its what the people voted for so you blame yourself when things go wrong. This has how it’s been since the time of Plato, this is how it works in the US, and it’s even worse in less developed countries (where people are easier to manipulate).

There is no inherent virtue to democracy, the virtue comes from the middle class seizing a strong voice. The Internet helps this, but outside of that, it doesn’t look like this exists so far in Egypt from what I can tell.

1/31/2011 9:27:09 AM

from within the country, an investment advisor

Quote :

"There is more to the picture than meets the eye - it appears that there is an internal power struggle between the Interior Ministry that controls the police, and the army. Fearing that the police (and their power) was being sidelined, the Interior Minister ordered them off the streets, sending an implicit message that the cost of undermining the internal security forces would be a breakdown of law-and-order. This scenario seems to have played out; it appears that there is now coordination between the Egyptian military and internal security forces, and it may be that the protests are showing early signs of dwindling. The political landscape is one with Mubarak and al-Adly, hanging on to power and the opposition consisting of different constituencies. The opposition is unified in its opposition to both Mubarak and al-Adly, but divided on almost anything else. El Baradei's secular stance is very different from the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamist platform - which is one reason why no leader has emerged to take control of the demonstrations. Although nobody knows what tomorrow (literally) will bring, there are a couple of distinct outcomes possible - the regime might survive with Mubarak in or out of the picture, elections are forced and El Baradei is chosen and Egypt moves to a democratic model from a statist one established by Naseer, elections are forced and the Muslim Brotherhood moves the country in an Islamist-led direction, or the county falls into chaos. At this point, the demonstrators hope for an alliance with the military to usher in a post-Mubarak era, may be further away than it looked Friday and Saturday. My guess, not forecast, is that one of the first two options are most likely to occur.....but time will tell. Markets will be impacted by this instability - and globalization will send ripple effects to portfolios the world over. In situations such as these, traditionally "local" interest rates have risen reflecting uncertainty, and money flows have migrated to safe-haven assets including real assets such as oil, gold and the US Dollar. "

1/31/2011 9:44:23 AM

The rich and powerful can gain ground in times of prosperity and stability. In times of turmoil... it's really not the 'entrenched' that gain control (although it could be), I mean, it's often the revolutionaries, who often then go on to become the next oppressive leaders.

moron's account only works for a small window into society. We all know that power and corruption go together. If stuff hasn't changed particularly recently, it's not hard to say that power and corruption are both feeding back into itself within a democratic system. I could be wrong, but I believe that a cycle generally starts with power - then comes along corruption.

A distrust of the 'entrenched' may be a well-placed reason to be suspicious of the brotherhood. Granted, I don't know enough about them to say. But the big angry mob of people on the streets of Cairo were pretty clear about their demands. They want free elections, and one would assume, whatever comes as a result of them.

While they might like to think so, the rich and powerful today do not have poop made of gold. They're people no different from you or I. The constant culprit is not any group of people, it's human nature.

1/31/2011 9:49:01 AM

Quote :

"The article seems to say though that because the muslim brotherhood has been the only real opposition, other “political parties” haven’t been allowed to flourish, and they would have a very significant advantage."

The Muslim Brother is certainly the most organized at the moment. But it doesn't - at least from everything I've read - enjoy strong support from the majority of Egyptians. That's why I said the speed with which this transition occurs will be important. If elections are scheduled a long enough time in advance (if at all), then other secular, liberal, moderately religious parties will enter the playing field. You'll probably also see parties and candidates with strong military or bureaucratic backgrounds challenging the Brotherhood's candidates, who we have no reason to think will be particularly great at campaigning (though they might).

1/31/2011 10:14:49 AM

Quote :

"So young and naive… Democracy, for the most part, is just a guise for the already rich and powerful entrenched entities to keep and maintain power. They make you think its what the people voted for so you blame yourself when things go wrong. This has how it’s been since the time of Plato, this is how it works in the US, and it’s even worse in less developed countries (where people are easier to manipulate). There is no inherent virtue to democracy, the virtue comes from the middle class seizing a strong voice. The Internet helps this, but outside of that, it doesn’t look like this exists so far in Egypt from what I can tell."

There is no need to patronize me.

I presented a practical solution; you just gave theory. Yes, I know that democracy is not the best form of government, but it's the best we as humans know and have.

After all your educational paragraphs, tell me, what's your solution for the Egyptian problem (and other Arab/Muslim countries) right now? Continue with the dictatorship? If not, then how do you propose selecting a new leader?

1/31/2011 12:23:10 PM

Quote :

"If not, then how do you propose selecting a new leader?"

Is there a good reason you're discounting the possibility of fair and open elections, or did I miss something?

Normally I wouldn't be so optimistic about the prospect of pragmatically holding such elections, but considering that the streets are filled with an angry mob asking for this exact thing... I'd say they got a good shot.

1/31/2011 12:36:19 PM

Just in case someone debates the existence of clear demands:

1/31/2011 1:02:10 PM

Quote :

"Is there a good reason you're discounting the possibility of fair and open elections, or did I miss something?"

Yes, you missed something.

That's exactly what I am saying should happen. Read moron's post (he quotes my post in it) after your post with the youtube links. He is saying democracy is not good.

1/31/2011 1:47:45 PM

I think the American view on these uprisings is somewhat skewed, as it is with most foreign policy matters.

For one, what we've seen in Tunisia and Egypt, and what we will see in other areas, is food inflation, commonly being referred to as "agflation." Many of us have referred to "capital flows" - the tendency of newly created money to take the path of least resistance, meaning money flows to emerging markets. In this sense, the food revolutions we're seeing in the Arab world - and I do expect this to spread to other countries in 2011 - are a direct result of actions taken by the Federal Reserve. When I talk about monetizing bad debt at the expense of emerging markets, this is what I'm talking about, and if anyone here considers themselves to be a worldly, enlightened, compassionate "liberal," you should take what I'm saying seriously, as the policies of our government have real, human consequences in other parts of the world. Jim Rogers and other commodity experts have been predicting a food crisis in 2011, and I think we're seeing the start of it.

Taken from http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Egypt-Tunisia-usher-new-era-tele-844219926.html?x=0&.v=1:

Quote :

"The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its global food index has surpassed the all-time high of 2008, both in nominal and real terms. The cereals index has risen 39pc in the last year, the oil and fats index 55pc."

Indeed, inflation is here, and Ph.D. economists in the United States insist that deflation is the real threat, the rest of the world is quickly recognizing what some of us already have.

Additionally, we should think about how the Egyptians might feel about the United States. In fact, we give Egypt quite a bit of foreign aid every year (around 2 billion), and about 75% of that goes towards the military and military equipment - the same equipment being used to shoot down Egyptian protesters in the street. Just another opportunity to think about what your tax money goes towards.

[Edited on January 31, 2011 at 5:17 PM. Reason : ]

1/31/2011 5:15:03 PM

You really can make any thread about the federal reserve and US taxes, I mean, except for ones specifically about that topic, you wisely avoid them as they would require you to explain the stupid shit you post.

1/31/2011 6:12:22 PM

Meanwhile, hardly anyone bothers responding to your stupid shit these days. We've all seen the mental gymnastics you're willing to do to maintain "correctness," and it just isn't worth the time.

1/31/2011 6:27:15 PM

u mad bro?

1/31/2011 6:41:01 PM

You're the one whining, not me. There's literally nothing you could say to me on here that could anger me. That's why you're the one constantly hurling middle school insults, while I'm the one focusing on the argument. In short, u mad, and we all get a good laugh out of it.

1/31/2011 6:48:51 PM

if i posted on TSB enough to know any of your personalities, I would take this opportunity to make cracks at your expense. But I do not.

1/31/2011 8:34:58 PM

I generally come off as a pretentious know-it-all who will belabor any point until it has little to do with the original argument, and destroyer is a former libertarian who is on a swift decline into anarcho-capitalistic lunacy, if that helps you out.

[Edited on January 31, 2011 at 9:05 PM. Reason : ]

1/31/2011 9:03:17 PM

1/31/2011 10:09:32 PM

I'm a little disturbed that our news media is giving the muslim brotherhood more legitimacy than they deserve just to draw eyes of viewers.

1/31/2011 11:54:16 PM

http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201101310057

Quote :

"On O'Reilly, Beck Says Egyptian Unrest "Is Being Orchestrated By The Marxist Communists" And The Muslim Brotherhood"

2/1/2011 4:57:17 AM

Add Jordan to the list. This is getting awesome.

Quote :

"Jordan’s King Dismisses Cabinet"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/02/world/middleeast/02jordan.html

2/1/2011 10:14:14 AM

Huckabee's thoughts. Its great that have to introduce him as Huckabee of Huckabee (his show).

2/2/2011 3:22:02 AM

It's often pointed out that some on the Christian Right think of US foreign policy through the lens of some crackpot theory about Jews, Israel, and the End Times. Mike Huckabee is probably the most prominent member of this club.

2/2/2011 8:53:10 AM

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/anderson-cooper-punched-head-10-times-promubarak-thugs/

Quote :

"Anderson Cooper ‘punched in the head’ 10 times by pro-Mubarak thugs "

also lots of videos down at the bottom of the link

2/2/2011 2:01:25 PM

Iran with Pyramids

2/2/2011 6:12:24 PM

Quote :

"I'm a little disturbed that our news media is giving the muslim brotherhood more legitimacy than they deserve just to draw eyes of viewers. "

2/2/2011 6:52:12 PM

I heard that despite what the name suggests, the Muslim Brotherhood is rather moderate, more akin to "Christian Democratic" parties in Europe, or the GOP, than a radical violent extreme fundamentalist Islamic movement.

2/2/2011 7:20:30 PM

You definitely heard wrong, then.

2/3/2011 8:59:46 AM

so how long until the crowd anger turns into senseless xenophobia?

2/3/2011 10:50:39 AM

Quote :

"I heard that despite what the name suggests, the Muslim Brotherhood is rather moderate"

"Despite"? The name doesn't suggest anything extremist at all. (unless your argument is that any group which has the word "Muslim" [or any variation of "Islam"] is by definition/necessarily extremist in nature)

2/3/2011 11:36:08 AM

^tis true. Even moderate americans get nervous around the m-word.

2/3/2011 12:15:08 PM

The name suggests a political party that wants to institute Sharia Law, which is radical no matter how you look at it. The Christian equivalent would be a fundamentalist organization trying to implement the Ten Commandments into our legal code.

That said, it would be incorrect to lump the Muslim Brotherhood in with violent groups like the Taliban and Hamas.

2/3/2011 12:18:43 PM

I was listening to talk radio today and all they could talk about was how Dems are supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and not an important Ally to the US. I don't understand how some people can seriously think "Is this good for Americans?" instead of "Cool, Egyptians are pissed off and reorganizing their government in the hope of a better of life."

2/3/2011 2:47:38 PM

Yep. One of the main reasons why we are so despised throughout the region. We've been meddling
in their sovereign affairs for decades, because of oil, Israel and the Cold War. It's probably time for a new foreign policy doctrine that makes a clean break from the proxy battles of the Cold War and the interventionist cowboy diplomacy of Bush. An Obama doctrine, if you will.

2/3/2011 3:48:03 PM

Have we really been backing the muslim brotherhood? I haven't heard anything about that.

2/3/2011 4:12:15 PM

^Rush seems to think so. Probably because Obama is a Muslim.

2/3/2011 4:54:53 PM

Quote :

""Despite"? The name doesn't suggest anything extremist at all. (unless your argument is that any group which has the word "Muslim" [or any variation of "Islam"] is by definition/necessarily extremist in nature)"

Having your religion make up half of your political party's name suggests a religious party, and "religious party" doesn't scream "moderate."

I would not think that a Muslim Dodgeball League carried connotations of extremism any more than the YMCA does. But if a major political party crops up in the US called "Christians for Congress" crops up, that'll probably make me go just like "Muslim Brotherhood" does.

2/3/2011 5:14:53 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast/04diplomacy.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Quote :

"White House, Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak’s Exit WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday. Even though Mr. Mubarak has balked, so far, at leaving now, officials from both governments are continuing talks about a plan in which Mr. Suleiman, backed by Lt. Gen. Sami Enan, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of constitutional reform. "

2/3/2011 10:26:32 PM

But I thought Obama was dragging his feet here. I have been told that he doesn't know what he is doing. Why hasn't he taken control of the situation? Why is he allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to take over? Egypt is burning and he is partying!!!! President Nero Carter!!

2/3/2011 10:48:56 PM

Pharaobama

2/3/2011 11:11:16 PM

Quote :

"Why hasn't he taken control of the situation? Why is he allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to take over? Egypt is burning and he is partying!!!! President Nero Carter!!"

Yeah, we've only got one war going on over there right now, we need to stop dicking around and starting a new one.

2/3/2011 11:15:59 PM

Quote :

"That said, it would be incorrect to lump the Muslim Brotherhood in with violent groups like the Taliban and Hamas."

I suppose this is true, as the Muslim Brotherhood does not have quite the reputation of Hamas, its Palestinian wing.

2/3/2011 11:37:50 PM