I guess those militia bunkers have internets now

Quote :

"Even the GOP knows that the debt can't be paid. Cutting things here and there is not going to eliminate the budget deficit."

YES WE CAN pay down the debt

by making more substantial cuts than "here and there" and ramping up taxes (which will make the recovery drag on a bit longer or some future boom less impressive, but it's the kind of bitter fiscal medicine our country needs)

BTW I originally imagined reviving the old "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN OBAMA IS LORD" thread from CB but I felt like that was played out...still, it happened again, with the greatest 2-month drop in seasonally-adjusted U3 since 1958.

2/5/2011 3:38:03 AM

Quote :

"YES WE CAN pay down the debt"

No. No, we can't. At least not without major cuts to entitlements. We could literally abolish the military and still not be close to eliminating the deficit. Even if I could go to town on the budget personally, I don't think the debt could be paid off, because eventually interest rates have to rise, at which point the debt will become unserviceable. I can tell you that if we were to successfully eliminate the deficit, we wouldn't be left with a government that most liberals here would be remotely happy with.

2/5/2011 9:03:35 AM

Well, Jim.. Governor Bush and I have two ve-ry diff-er-ent plans to of-fer tax re-lief to American families. In his plan, the wealthiest 1% of Americans would receive nearly fif-ty per-cent of the ben-e-fits. My plan, Jim, is diff-er-ent. Rather than squand-er the su-plus on a risky tax cut for the wealth-y, I would put it in what I call a.. "lock-box."

2/5/2011 9:51:44 AM

Quote :

"BTW I originally imagined reviving the old "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN OBAMA IS LORD" thread from CB but I felt like that was played out...still, it happened again, with the greatest 2-month drop in seasonally-adjusted U3 since 1958."

Hurr durrr, I'm pro democrat so I'll ignore everyone that gave up looking for work that resulted in such a drastic drop in the U3 number, hurr durr, we created 36,000 jobs and the number dropped .7%, hurr durr, just another 500,000 jobs and we'll have zero unemployment, hurr durr.

Quote :

"No. No, we can't. At least not without major cuts to entitlements."

Slowly, the economy will continue to grow and more people will go back to work and revenue will go up which will also help in paying back the debt.

Quote :

" because eventually interest rates have to rise, at which point the debt will become unserviceable."

What? If the US makes meaningful measures to cut budgets, rates will fall as the bond market has one less worry regarding getting paid back.

It's one thing to admit that saving Wall Street has put a real hitch in the recovery, but it's quite a leap to get from there to "omfg the US economy and political system will implode".




[Edited on February 5, 2011 at 10:32 AM. Reason : .]

2/5/2011 10:29:49 AM

Quote :

"Slowly, the economy will continue to grow and more people will go back to work and revenue will go up which will also help in paying back the debt."

I can't figure out if you're playing devil's advocate here or what, but surely, you understand that we're running over a trillion dollar deficit, and we'll most likely be looking at 15-16 trillion total national debt by next year. Assuming there's no interest to be paid on any of that, it would take 15-16 years of running trillion dollar surpluses to pay off the debt. Of course, there will be interest, and that's the problem with a debt based system - the ability to pay it legitimately decreases over time. Do you really think that the "economy will grow slowly" and we're going to take a real stab at austerity, and then also somehow crank of revenues to the point where we can be getting record budget surpluses?

Quote :

"What? If the US makes meaningful measures to cut budgets, rates will fall as the bond market has one less worry regarding getting paid back."

What rates will fall? Are you talking about bond yields? You're saying they'll fall more than they have already?

[Edited on February 5, 2011 at 11:03 AM. Reason : ]

2/5/2011 11:02:08 AM

Quote :

"BTW I originally imagined reviving the old "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN OBAMA IS LORD" thread from CB but I felt like that was played out...still, it happened again, with the greatest 2-month drop in seasonally-adjusted U3 since 1958. "

LOL, great news a TON of people gave up looking for a job. Hip Hip...

2/5/2011 11:07:26 AM

yeah the jobs numbers were terrible, its time for the unemployment rate to just go away it's the most inaccurate measure ever in an economy like this.

If i was getting unemployment checks theres no way id seek employment in a snowstorm either.


And if you think we can pay down the debt by ramping up taxes you've lost it. This debt will never be paid back, period.

The best we could hope for is to stop adding to the debt so that debt service is manageable as we grow the economy.

Instead we're adding $1.5 trillion to the debt each year. Real sustainable.

2/5/2011 11:40:21 AM

Chance, you may not have been there, but behind the extreme title of that old thread was a more measured analysis of the rates, along with mention of the labor-force-participation rate, which has seemed to affect U3 (negatively) more than anything else in the past year.

[Edited on February 5, 2011 at 3:09 PM. Reason : also face, we need to tax the rich more...there I said it

2/5/2011 3:08:36 PM

even if taxing the rich worked (it doesnt) it still wouldnt be enough to even begin to close the gap.

I dont think you understand how wide the gap is. Any plan that doesnt include the middle class is laughable.


Taxing the rich will only make us create more rent seeking accountants whose sole job is tax avoidance.

2/5/2011 4:13:07 PM

You do realize that we control the currency our debt is defined in, right? We could pay off the debt if we wanted to right now, it wouldn't be a good idea, but we most certainly could do it. It will be difficult to do it in a way that will be least painful for us, but the idea that it is impossible to pay off is stupid.

2/5/2011 4:27:40 PM

^^We're not even close to the point where those secondary effects would swamp the primary effect that raising taxes raises revenue

Quote :

"Any plan that doesnt include the middle class is laughable."

This is true, and the government will even need to be stingier to the neediest among us.

2/5/2011 5:13:19 PM

Quote :

"Well, Jim.. Governor Bush and I have two ve-ry diff-er-ent plans to of-fer tax re-lief to American families. In his plan, the wealthiest 1% of Americans would receive nearly fif-ty per-cent of the ben-e-fits. My plan, Jim, is diff-er-ent. Rather than squand-er the su-plus on a risky tax cut for the wealth-y, I would put it in what I call a.. "lock-box." "

ITT, Supplanter thinks that 75b is 50% of 310b.

2/5/2011 5:26:21 PM

ITT he quoted Al Gore

2/5/2011 5:51:35 PM

^ and yet, he didn't question the numbers. thus, he agrees with them. thus, he thinks 73 is 50% of 310

2/5/2011 9:21:25 PM

aaronburro:

Quote :

"ITT, Supplanter thinks that 75b is 50% of 310b."

lewisje:

Quote :

"ITT he quoted Al Gore"

ITT the full transcript from the night that quote was said would also include Live, from New York, it's Saturday night!!!!!!

2/6/2011 4:40:15 AM

Good lord kris you've argued against a huge wave of dollar destruction with me for 12 months and now you just flip the switch and agree with me?

Weird

2/8/2011 2:25:47 PM

wtf are you talking about?

You state that it is impossible for us to pay off the debt, I point out that it is literally impossible for us not to be able to pay off the debt, then you say I agree with you?

2/8/2011 2:32:07 PM

Its impossible for us to pay off the debt legitimately.

That we can all agree with.

It is possible to service the debt in the short term by just printing money like we are doing now.

However, this is not possible in the long term. I'll leave it to you to figure out why. (Hint: I've posted about this many times)

2/8/2011 4:10:14 PM

because the rate at which the government will be able to push the bills out won't be able to outrun the hyperinflation resulting from the earlier mass-printings of money

2/8/2011 4:48:48 PM

Hyperinflation isn't just "really high inflation," mind you. Hyperinflation would occur when people suddenly realize the currency is doomed because the central bank never had an exit strategy to begin with. It's flight inflation, and if it happens, you won't have time to prepare.

2/8/2011 4:59:39 PM

Quote :

"Its impossible for us to pay off the debt legitimately. That we can all agree with."

I certainly do not agree with that, in fact, I have pointed out, as our debt is in US dollars, it is IMPOSSIBLE for us NOT to pay it of.

Quote :

"However, this is not possible in the long term. I'll leave it to you to figure out why. (Hint: I've posted about this many times)"

We are talking about paying off the debt, we can reduce our debt by nothing more than inflation. The threat you are talking about is if people no longer want our money, and while it is not out of the realm of possibility, it seems very unlikely considering the renewed faith in the dollar after the recent recession and even less likely considering the instability of Europe coupled with the continued rapid growth of China.

You don't seem to understand what the debt actually is and what we really owe them.

Quote :

"because the rate at which the government will be able to push the bills out won't be able to outrun the hyperinflation resulting from the earlier mass-printings of money"

hyperinflation lowers our debt.

2/8/2011 6:10:16 PM

Dude you make things so hard on yourself.

I said it is impossible for us to pay off our debt LEGITIMATELY.

Our govt will be forced to default (politically embarrassing) or inflate (much more devastating to the economy, but its the path political leaders usually choose).


Hyperinflation while a possibility, is not IMO the most likely scenario.

Oh there will be inflation make no mistake. That tidal wave is already upon us. We have successfully exported most of it this point but we are beginning to feel its unsavory effects. (Not nearly as bad as egypt and china are feeling it tho)

Just wait until china revalues their currency, how will we fare when every consumer goood jumps in price by 20%?!


However, as the fiscal crisis draws near there is one likeiy scenario to play out. The time to rollover our debt will come one day, you know to keep the music going and the checks coming. The fed govt will be slinging debt "get your treasuries here" like an annuity salesman and everyone will say we've seen your books and we're afraid you'll never be able to repay us, we'll pass at these rates.

That is when rates will rise sharply at a time we can afford it the least. Fiscal crisis USA, coming to a town near you.

We are already seeing the 30 year treasury rise significantly as people weigh the inherent riskiness in those bonds. Luckily, our "wise" leaders don't borrow at 30 years anymore (because they can barely afford to). They borrow at short term rates and just roll it over perpetually.

It will coninue to work until... It doesn't.


Now the part that you want to know is when is "doesn't"?

That's the trillion dollar question. It's anyones guess, a number of factors could continue to artificially prop up the dollar and/or treasury (china currency peg, europe and japanese defaults, state govt defaults, etc) while other catalysts (war in iran, recession, oil shock, etc) could bring us to the crisis in quick order.

Niall believes it will happen in the next 2-4 years. Many believe it could be 5-10 years.

A lot will depend on our leadership. If Obama gets re-elected there is a good likelihood it will happen during his term because he has shown complete disregard for the country's economic health and national debt.

Not that any president can truly solve this problem, but they sure have the ability to speed up the inevitable. Obama has us on a direct crash course at the moment.

2/8/2011 8:42:42 PM

Quote :

"I said it is impossible for us to pay off our debt LEGITIMATELY."

WTF does that even mean? We print money, we're the only ones who make it.

Quote :

"how will we fare when every consumer goood jumps in price by 20%?"

Probably better than they would fare if we stopped buying their stuff.

Quote :

"We are already seeing the 30 year treasury rise significantly as people weigh the inherent riskiness in those bonds."

Wat?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETYX+Interactive#chart5:symbol=^tyx;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Quote :

"Niall believes it will happen in the next 2-4 years. Many believe it could be 5-10 years."

Oh, the economist wannabe that Krugman made a fool of?

Quote :

"If Obama gets re-elected there is a good likelihood it will happen during his term because he has shown complete disregard for the country's economic health and national debt."

I hope this thread will still be around in four years, I will be sure to bump it.

2/8/2011 9:35:01 PM

Let's get a few things straight.

Krugman only makes a fool out of himself everytime he opens his mouth. You can't possibly know less about economics than that guy.

I clicked on your graph and see that the 30 year treasury has risen from 3.6% to 4.8% since September. Thanks for helping to illustrate my point. The 30 year number is relatively un-important as we can't afford to borrow much at those rates anyway, but it is a good leading indicator of our approaching fiscal crisis as people will certainly reject the 30 year earlier than the 10, 2, etc.

Quote :

"Probably better than they would fare if we stopped buying their stuff."

This just shows how little you truly understand economics. You believe the Chinese are well off because we buy their stuff. But we don't truly buy it. We send them paper money that we create from thin air. We provide them little of true value. The Chinese would be MUCH better off if they kept what they made rather than sitting on a huge stack of dollars that are becoming worth less by the day.

That is a basic principle. So basic we shouldn't even have to talk about it. But don't take my word for it, just watch as the Emerging Market Consumer becomes the most important market force for the next several decades. You see they are learning they are better off keeping what they make rather than sending it to us so that we may live in fantasyland at their expense.

2/8/2011 9:57:43 PM

Quote :

"I clicked on your graph and see that the 30 year treasury has risen from 3.6% to 4.8% since September."

Oh, I forgot you completely ignore everything that doesn't validate your worldview. Any normal person would note how this is normal fluctuations.

Quote :

"but it is a good leading indicator of our approaching fiscal crisis as people will certainly reject the 30 year earlier than the 10, 2, etc"

Oh, cool, then check this out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETYX+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^tyx;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Quote :

"You believe the Chinese are well off because we buy their stuff."

If not, why would they sell it to us?

Quote :

"We send them paper money that we create from thin air. We provide them little of true value. The Chinese would be MUCH better off if they kept what they made rather than sitting on a huge stack of dollars that are becoming worth less by the day."

This shows how little you know about economics.

Quote :

"You see they are learning they are better off keeping what they make rather than sending it to us so that we may live in fantasyland at their expense."

They need capital, which is exactly what they trade us for. Do you really just think everyone over there is completely incompetent? How did they manage such spectacular growth by trading for something you claim to be worthless?

2/8/2011 10:18:49 PM

Dude, you really need to catch up here.

There has been a 30 year bull market in treasuries. That bull market is over. Rates will only rise from this point on. Steadily, rapidly, that's anyone's guess but it will happen, period.

Have the Chinese been incompetent? Yes. They've been totally duped. They are now coming to that realization and that is why they are looking to divest away from the dollar. The trick is doing it without completely tanking the value of the dollars they own now.

Would the Chinese be better off letting their currency float to its natural level? Gee, I don't know would you turn a 30% raise down from your boss?

Obviously this will cause some economic dislocation which scares political leaders. The dislocation will be a long run win for the Chinese as it makes no sense to continue making products that there is no true market for. The dislocation is in their best interest but political leaders like to avoid short term pain at all costs and they hope the long run pain is unnoticed or blows up on someone else's watch.

Bernanke lied again this week and he denies all fault of this global inflation that is a direct result of his printing press. Why do you still believe him? He hasn't been right about anything yet. QE 2 has completely blown up in his face and is a political nightmare for all involved. What are they going to do now? Chicanery only goes so far in finance, eventually everything boils to the surface.

What's the Buffet quote "When the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked".

Very applicable here, the Fed is 100% politicized so they are in the same boat now. The government is running out of time and short term solutions.

2/8/2011 10:41:27 PM

Quote :

"Rates will only rise from this point on."

Cool, I'll bump the thread when that doesn't happen too.

Quote :

"Have the Chinese been incompetent? Yes."

Yet by any measurable metric life in china has drastically improved over the last 10 years.

It amazes myself how much you are able to divorce yourself when it does not reflect what you believe.

2/8/2011 10:45:23 PM

The gains for ordinary citizens have been almost non existent compared to the immense economic growth China has experienced.

90% of that is because they failed at basic economics.

They got caught in the trap of keeping their currency artificially low to boost exports, when in fact they just shortchanged themselves.

How is life for the ordinary Chinese citizen Kris? It must be amazing to work 12 hour days for $2 and then ship off all your labor to another country for peanuts.

You are going to be blown away by the emergence of the Chinese consumer. It turns out people over there like stuff too. Who knew? You thought they just existed to provide you with cheaper shoes, right?

2/8/2011 10:51:49 PM

Quote :

"The gains for ordinary citizens have been almost non existent compared to the immense economic growth China has experienced."

The majority of chinese people now have access to healthcare, running water, and electricity. By any metric of quality of life, china has drastically improved, what the hell are you talking about.

Quote :

"90% of that is because they failed at basic economics."

Of course, they have masterminded the greatest growth rate in history, yet somehow they don't understand basic economics.

Quote :

"How is life for the ordinary Chinese citizen Kris?"

DRASTICALLY better than it was several years ago.

Quote :

"You are going to be blown away by the emergence of the Chinese consumer."

Maybe one day, but right now their average income is still only a few thousand dollars, so while they might want things, they don't make enough to buy stuff like we do, and even when they do, it will only increase the demand for our own products. I don't understand how you are acting as if the growth of a consumer class in china is a bad thing. But I really don't understand how you trade as a bad thing.

2/8/2011 11:31:46 PM

Let me make this simple for you since economics easily confuses you. And yes I am borrowing this.

Picture an island with 5 people on it. 4 of them are chinese and 1 is an American. The 4 chinese work all day gathering food, building shelter, mending clothes, etc.

The American naps all day in the shelter and at the end of the day eats the dinner the Chinese have provided.


You are arguing that if not for the American, the Chinese would have no one to give the fruits of their labor to.

I am arguing that the Chinese would be better off kicking the American off the island and consuming their own food and products.


This is SO basic. I can't lay it out any clearer.


Rates are rising at an alarming rate WHILE the government buys our bonds. Just think about that for a second. What will happen when QE 2 ends? Rates will start shooting up and the Fed will enter talks for QE 3. What will happen then? Rates will trend down as everyone loads up on bonds. When QE 3 ends they will dump their bonds right back to the Fed and rates will shoot up again.

This is a total shell game. It's not going to end well man.


The social security ponzi scheme is collapsing before your very eyes. Are you in denial of that too?


The emerging market consumer is great for us in that it gives us a market to sell goods to. What isn't great is that chinese currency re-valuation is going to hit us like a brick wall. Talk about instant inflation.

Also, resource scarcity is a bit of a problem. But this is getting too complex, I better slow down. One step at a time here.

Arguing with me isn't going to change anything. I'm not "predicting" or "forecasting" or "extrapolating". These are all things that are happening. This is real and no fairyland economics is going to change it. You can put as many Harvard alums in a room as you want but it doesn't change the fact that they are dead wrong about their beliefs.

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 12:08 AM. Reason : add]

2/9/2011 12:05:53 AM

Quote :

"This is SO basic. I can't lay it out any clearer."

It's incredibly wrong. The US gives the chinese something they want, US dollars. This gives China the financial stability they need in order to grow.

Quote :

"Rates are rising at an alarming rate"

I JUST PROVED THIS WRONG.

This is pointless. You refuse to accept reality, your only interaction with it is to scour it for any kind of thing you can twist into validating your worldview and steadfastly ignore anything that goes against it despite how valid or completely obvious it is.

2/9/2011 12:44:04 AM

hahaha we send them US Dollars!!! FANTASTIC

The same US Dollars we print on a whim.

We've already established the dollar is collapsing and China is looking to DIVEST from dollars.

You just don't get it man.

Rates are rising at an unbelievable rate. What happens when the 10 year goes to 4? The 30 year to 6? What are you going to say then?


Im the one who maintains his viewpoint steadfastly because I'm right. You are the one using these incorrect dogmatic approaches. Perhaps you should just listen and learn something rather than argue fallacies all day. Why are you so staunchly opposed to learning anyway?

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 1:03 AM. Reason : add]

2/9/2011 12:51:37 AM

hit up the 12 jew bankers

2/9/2011 12:55:11 AM

JP Morgan is now accepting gold as collateral for loans for god's sake.

How long before they no longer accept US treasuries as collateral? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?


Russia and China are now trading without the use of USD. How long before we are no longer the world reserve currency? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?

Seriously, this isn't the fucking time to argue semantics. This is the time to stock up on canned goods and ammunition. You think I'm fucking joking?

2/9/2011 1:11:13 AM

Quote :

"hahaha we send them US Dollars!!! FANTASTIC The same US Dollars we print on a whim."

Yep, the same US dollars you spend most of your day chasing after. The same US dollars that, if you had enough, could buy anything you wanted.

Quote :

"We've already established the dollar is collapsing and China is looking to DIVEST from dollars."

HERPDY DERP BUT I THOUGHT THEY DIDNT HURR DURR ECONOMICS

They are trying to diversify, they still hold a substantial amount in order to stabilize their own currency.

Quote :

"Rates are rising at an unbelievable rate."

I JUST SHOWED YOU THE GRAPH

THEY ARE GROWING AT A REMARKABLY AVERAGE RATE

ONE THAT WOULD LOOK EXACTLY LIKE NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS

Quote :

"Why are you so staunchly opposed to learning anyway?"

Learning what? That china hasn't experienced any economic growth in the past 20 years? Or that in some the face land of make-believe there is some uncertainty in the bond market?

Quote :

"JP Morgan is now accepting gold as collateral for loans for god's sake."

The fact that people are wanting to use gold as collateral only further proves it's uselessness and lack of immediate need.

Quote :

"This is the time to stock up on canned goods and ammunition. You think I'm fucking joking?"

No, I think you are retarded.

2/9/2011 1:33:06 AM

^ Dude just stop. You're embarrassing yourself at this point. Your post makes you sound like a two year old.

Here is a good article just so you can see how mainstream all this information is.

It's out there if you want to know about it. This IS happening.

This isnt some fear monger speaker, this is a fucking investment outlook for 2011 from a CFA/MBA.

http://www.meriver.com/blog/2011/02/2011-outlook-inflationary-exuberance/

Seriously, take ten minutes of your life to read this and then start thinking about what you need to do to prepare yourself for the collapse.

Pay attention to specific points like these:

Quote :

"I’d argue that continuing the path we are on will be more catastrophic and that this will be one of our few chances to make drastic hundred billion dollar cuts in the US budget to save our nation from fiscal disaster, but alas I would not expect our government to take these measures. Default is inevitable, but the US government probably would prefer an inflationary default. It is far more subtle I suppose."

Quote :

"Looking deeper into the global debt problem, one will find even greater obligations called ‘unfunded liabilities,’ otherwise known as false promises. Currently, the US has promised to subsidize healthcare (Medicare) and prescription drug costs for retirees over 65. If those false promises that people see on their Social Security statements or believe they will enjoy in Medicare/drug prescription costs are counted as real debt the US would be well over $100 trillion in liabilities. (That is over $1 million for each family of four.) "

Quote :

"When the commercial banks stop creating money out of thin air, the Federal Reserve has to resort to its final option: The Printing Press. Although the Federal Reserve really just increases the monetary base and leaves the actually printing to the Treasury, the effect is the same. The Federal Reserve can create massive amounts of money at will. The Federal Reserve banking system started 2008 with about $850 billion in reserves and began 2010 with over $2 trillion. It now stands at $2.1 trillion and counting. In 2010, Bernanke pledged to create an extra $600 billion of money by the second quarter of 2011 and did not rule out creating even more. This action was dubbed Quantitative Easing 2.0. The Federal Reserve was designed to be able to create money by purchasing assets such as US Government Treasuries. The money printing not only serves to artificially inflate the economy and recapitalize banks, but it props up the prices of US Government Treasury bonds that foreigners no longer desire. In fact the Federal Reserve created so much money with US bond purchases that it is now the largest holder of US government debt, even larger than Japan or China!"

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 1:40 AM. Reason : add]

2/9/2011 1:38:33 AM

Quote :

"Here is a good article just so you can see how mainstream all this information is."

You're only further proving my point, you will only recognize "mainstream information" if it reflects what you want to believe.

Quote :

"This isnt some fear monger speaker"

Yes, thats exactly who it is. Meriver Capital was established to sell recession whether it is happening or not.

2/9/2011 10:26:45 AM

I feel like I'm having a conversation with a kid sometimes.

I for one do not care if an idea is mainstream. If its correct ill believe it even if I'm one of the few who does.

Your ploy is to act like I'm a member of the lunatic fringe when in reality there are tons of people who recognize what is about to happen to the US. I was simply pointing out this is not some crazy delusion that only I can forsee.

This is happening, just accept it and prepare yourself.

The rich were about to get wiped out in 2008, but they banded together and threw the rest of the nation under the bus and told us to suck it.

Now they are on their life rafts while we go down with the ship. Sucks, but its what happened.

2/9/2011 1:10:41 PM

surely the rothschilds will save us

2/9/2011 1:15:38 PM

Quote :

"I for one do not care if an idea is mainstream."

Yes you do, that's why you said: "Here is a good article just so you can see how mainstream all this information is."

If your theories were mainstream it would add some credibility to the crazy things you are preaching, which is the best option you've got since you refuse to use logic to defend them.

Quote :

"Your ploy is to act like I'm a member of the lunatic fringe when in reality there are tons of people who recognize what is about to happen to the US. I was simply pointing out this is not some crazy delusion that only I can forsee."

You are part of a lunatic fringe. I'm sure you don't like realizing it, but it's true. If a good number of people actually believed in your ideas, they would be self fulfilling. The fact that we aren't experiencing this crash you say will happen is because most people know it's wrong. They still demand dollars, they still invest their assets and expose them to risk, if people believed what you say they would be extremely risk averse. You can support even the craziest theories if you ignore everything to the contrary, which is what you are doing.

2/9/2011 2:54:16 PM

Quote :

"Currently, the US has promised to subsidize healthcare (Medicare) and prescription drug costs for retirees over 65. If those false promises that people see on their Social Security statements or believe they will enjoy in Medicare/drug prescription costs are counted as real debt the US would be well over $100 trillion in liabilities. (That is over $1 million for each family of four.) ""

i need to see the math behind this claim please

2/9/2011 3:21:55 PM

You are incorrect and that is a statement of fact.

You will try to spin your argument when the time comes I'm sure.


Ps now obama wants to spend 60 billion on trains? Fucking trains? Is this guy sick in the head? We a fucking broke and he wants toys. This guy is a cancer

2/9/2011 3:33:17 PM

Quote :

"This is the time to stock up on canned goods and ammunition."

Quote :

"I'm not a member of the lunatic fringe"

smh

2/9/2011 3:44:54 PM

that math on that $100 Tril is all wrong from what i can tell.

(1) long term debt =/= current liability

(2) how do you put future liabilities in and equation where you leave out future assets?

(3) there is no "terminal value" in the the net present value equation for the $100 Tril

(4) even if we are to assume the $100 Tril is right, that family of 4 that "owes $1 Mil", owes $1 Mil nominally, year from now. Assuming the average person (assuming 1 breadwinner per family) works about 40 years of his/her life, the family actually owes less than half that much in terms of present value of the money, and furthermore, has said 40 years from which to pay for that "less than $1 Mil".


i'm going to go ahead and give the author the benefit of the doubt by saying that he gets carried away in making his point, and wont accuse him of sucking at math or calling him dishonest.

2/9/2011 3:57:34 PM

Haha now we don't even own the New York stock exchange!

Its not all that relevant financially but damn if it isn't symbolic.

The nation is being sold off piece by piece. Wonder what the white house and statue of liberty will sell for?


We are fucked dude just admit that.

Inflation Tsunami has already wiped out Egypt.

Bonds are being sold, dollars are being sold, this shit is happening right now.

Look at what is happening, the nation is crumbling at light speed. How can people be so apathetic?

200 years to build the country and only 40 to destroy it. Biggest creditor nation in the history of the world has become the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world.

Japan's debt got downgraded recently. Guess what, we owe them a trillion fucking dollars. hahahaha What the fuck, how are we triple A?

Oh yeah, S&P already proved their ratings are meaningless, nevermind.

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM. Reason : Down, Down, Down. Red Knight's going down.]

2/9/2011 7:23:43 PM

What do you have to say now kris?? I thought everyone wanted our dollars?!

IMF to Kris: You're wrong. We no longer want your dollars. Coming soon, a new world reserve currency.


Ready to admit your entire argument is fallacious playboy?

2/11/2011 1:48:25 PM

You are only further proving my point that you ignore reality when it doesn't conform to your worldview. The IMF switching to a basket currency allows their currency to better reflect the global economy as a whole, rather than just the US economy. It has nothing to do with the dollar collapsing or whatever crazy thing you want to make it out to be.

2/11/2011 2:50:39 PM

They are trying to diversify out of the dollar without creating a bubble in whatever they move into.

Our entire economy hinges upon being able to print dollars and then export out the negative consequences.

This will totally fuck us without a doubt

2/11/2011 5:33:20 PM

Quote :

"They are trying to diversify out of the dollar without creating a bubble in whatever they move into."

That resembled a rational thought that might come from someone who is not a complete lunatic, I applaud you for it. Now start thinking why they want to diversify, is it because the dollar will become worthless, or is it simply that they want to better reflect the world economy as a whole. Keep in mind, one of the answers was actually said by the IMF itself.

2/11/2011 5:59:15 PM

Check out the food component of core inflation measurements in the following countries:

Quote :

"According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index, the price for basic food commodities around the world is up 28.3% over the past year. See here for more details: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/. The price of a barrel of oil has risen by 19% over the same period (see attached chart). Compare these changes to how financial assets such as the S&P 500 have performed – up 24% in the past 12 months – and you will see that the commodities complex has largely kept pace with traditional risk assets such as equities. That is a function of low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe as well as infusions of incremental liquidity from the quantitative easing."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-inflations-here-why-us-cpi-indicator-flawed-and-why-bernanke-will-maintain-zirp-rev

I realize, Kris, that you're not really interested in engaging reality, or at least not openly. Here's the deal though: inflation is happening. CPI in this country is calculated in such a way that it includes real estate/housing as a very high percentage (which, of course, is going to send the signal of deflation, despite the fact that home prices were too high to begin with). You can see, though, that inflation is very clearly taking place in respect to food and energy. You've always said that when inflation rears its head, the central bank will then raise rates to counteract that effect. What's happening? Why hasn't Bernanke pulled the trigger yet?

[Edited on February 11, 2011 at 6:56 PM. Reason : ]

2/11/2011 6:55:32 PM