Kelly has endorsed the PRO act

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mark-kelly-endorses-pro-act_n_66a1406ce4b04ed80d3a2a86

perhaps a bit of an opportunistic move, I'm not really sure why he was holding out

his parents were both union members, and helped his mom when she was injured on the job (source)

tbh, it's a non-issue for me. for people who do want to be in a union, they should be allowed to, but I really don't see unions as the best way for workers to get equitable treatment from their employers in 2024.

I think he can speak to the border issue as you said, and his wife's experience with political violence completely neutralizes however Trump might try to use the assassination attempt against him

7/25/2024 8:04:49 PM

If they do pick him I think the biggest win there would be that you could have both he and his twin brother on the campaign trail at the same time (with Scott pretending to be Mark). They'd be able to cover twice as much ground with two Mark Kellys out campaigning. Scott could just tell everyone that he has to go back up into outer space for a special mission for a few months, to throw people for a loop, then he'd be able to live out the rest of the election cycle as Mark.

Mark could rally in PA/GA and "Mark" could rally AZ (both at the exact same time), but people wouldn't know this because due to the time zone differences the clocks at each rally would show different times so who would ever figure this out?

7/25/2024 8:43:26 PM

^This is a great idea!

7/26/2024 8:25:12 AM

i get the point of people asking "Why Kamala and not Harris," but i feel like the answer in 2024 is branding, not sexism

Harris isn't a differentiator in this landscape. Kamala is. Also Bernie and Hillary both leaned on their first names.

7/26/2024 1:10:55 PM

I hadn't seen/heard the name "Kameltoe" in a while until yesterday

7/26/2024 1:13:31 PM

^^ I think we all know that there is a segment of the population who trip over themselves to see injustices in every little thing. they are fools and we should ignore them. too much real work to do in this world (including the actual injustices that still exist) to be distracted by that kind of nonsense these days

[Edited on July 26, 2024 at 1:26 PM. Reason : see also luxury beliefs]

7/26/2024 1:25:37 PM

Quote :

" === Vice President Kamala Harris has told top advisers that she’s looking for someone who can “balance the ticket” and serve as president if need be. She’s looking for “more of a governing partner” than an electoral boost, one person involved in the conversations told NOTUS. Effectively, “someone with executive experience at the highest level.” === IMO, this means one of the Governors. Who you picking? https://www.notus.org/2024-election/kamala-harris-vp-pick-search"

Looks like Kelly’s out. I think it’ll be Shapiro in this case

7/26/2024 5:16:08 PM

I'm still holding out for ol' Roy, even though I know about the whole CRAZY LT. GOV sitch.

7/26/2024 5:52:12 PM

I think they could use that to their advantage tbh.

another opportunity to highlight in the media and to voters that this isn't just about trump

The entire GOP is a bunch of weirdos

7/26/2024 6:35:12 PM

It sounds like Cooper to me based on that statement, I bet 10 doll hairs on it. They aren’t picking Shapiro…too much potential baggage.

And the whole Mark Robinson thing won’t be an issue:

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2024/07/25/kamala-harris-vp-what-will-mark-robinson-do-if-roy-cooper-is-chosen/74528802007/

Cooper 2024

7/26/2024 7:06:56 PM

^^^

7/26/2024 7:12:12 PM

Quote :

"I hadn't seen/heard the name "Kameltoe" in a while until yesterday"

"heels up Harris" is back too

7/26/2024 7:20:32 PM

Quote :

"I think they could use that to their advantage tbh."

I heard a pretty compelling argument about that, saying that it would KILL Robinson's chances if he acted a fool, but then I saw someone do the math of 67+4+4, and I reckon Beshear has the advantage there being 46.

7/27/2024 12:43:37 PM

VP Gov Shapiro....must win state and he is only 51. Could be set up nicely for 2032.

[Edited on July 27, 2024 at 2:22 PM. Reason : G]

7/27/2024 2:21:19 PM

I think any talk about lining up a Kamala VP for future elections has negative utility

let's look at the record of Dem attempts to run the "anointed" or "next in line" candidate for President

in election years with incumbent Dem Presidents:

2016 - Obama's VP Biden doesn't run, but the party's next in line is Hillary Clinton and she gets the nomination (thanks to party establishment support). She loses to Trump.
2012 - Obama wins reelection against Romney.
2000 - Clinton's VP Gore is the nominee (thanks to party establishment support). He loses to Bush.
1996 - Clinton wins reelection against Dole and Perot.
1980 - Carter loses reelection to Reagan.
1968 - LBJ is the incumbent President but decides not to run. His VP Hubert Humphrey gets the nod (thanks to party establishment support) and loses in a landslide to Nixon.
1964 - LBJ wins reelection against Goldwater.
1952 - Truman is the incumbent President but is massively unpopular and drops out in March. He tries to set up his VP Barkley as the nominee, but he's 74 himself and withdraws as well. Adlai Stevenson was heavily recruited by the party to be the nominee (although he didn't even want to be nominee - he liked being governor of Illinois and it wasn't even until the convention itself that he accepted). He lost in a landslide to Eisenhower.
1948 - Truman is the incumbent President (although unelected bc as FDR's VP he took over when FDR died in office). He wins against Dewey.

so with incumbent Dem Presidents, Dems are 4 for 5 (Truman, LBJ, Clinton, Obama with Carter the one loser) winning second terms but 0 for 4 (Stevenson, Humphrey, Gore and Hillary) when running VPs or otherwise party anointed candidates. definitely some echoes of 1968 in 2024 to be concerned about, but I don't think LBJ was winning then, and I don't think Biden was gonna win now. hopefully Kamala will be unburdened by what has been and can pull off the win against a uniquely terrible Trump.

also worth looking at years without an incumbent Dem President:

2020 - 20+ candidates run. the party definitely uses their influence in the end to consolidate around former VP Biden, but it's still (relatively speaking) a competitive primary where the voters decide the nominee. Joe beats Trump.
2008 - 10+ candidates run. Obama who is a relative newcomer and not the party favorite (compared to Hillary or even John Edwards) and wins a competitive primary where the voters decide the nominee. Obama beats McCain.
2004 - Primary (RIP Howard Dean) results in John Kerry losing in a close race to incumbent President Bush on the heels of the Iraq Invasion.
1992 - Dems didn't really have a "next in line" candidate this cycle, having lost the last 3 cycles to Bush and Reagan. So there's a reasonably competitive primary and voters choose Bill Clinton as the nominee. Clinton beats Bush (who had a very high approval rating due to the Gulf War).
1988 - Primary results in Dukakis losing to incumbent VP Bush.
1984 - Primary results in former Dem VP Mondale losing to incumbent President Reagan.
1976 - The party wanted Hubert Humphrey to run again but he declined, leading to a competitive primary which Jimmy Carter won. Carter beats Ford.
1972 - Primary results in McGovern losing to incumbent President Nixon

so in this scenario Dems are 4 for 8. In the 4 losses, Kerry, Dukakis, Mondale and McGovern all lost to incumbent Republican Presidents.

But of those 4 wins without the Dem incumbent advantage, Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden all won through relatively competitive primaries, with 3 of them beating incumbent Republican Presidents. Compared to 0 for 4 WITH a Dem incumbent with non-competitive Dem primaries.


The lesson is, competitive primaries > coronations. If Kamala wins, and especially if she wins again in 28, the Dem Party would be wise to let 32 be a fully competitive primary and not just automatically give the nomination to whoever ends up being VP. The VP pick in 24 needs to be about 24 and 24 only.

[Edited on July 27, 2024 at 6:01 PM. Reason : but who knows i'm probably wrong]

7/27/2024 5:56:31 PM

Gore has a big ol asterisk though


[Edited on July 27, 2024 at 7:01 PM. Reason : Otherwise agree]

7/27/2024 6:59:31 PM

as does Hillary

7/27/2024 7:19:11 PM

She's already made up her mind and picked Ol' Roy...they're just dragging this out for as long as possible now so the other lapdogs can run around hyping her up before the convention

7/27/2024 9:07:02 PM

Quote :

"Clinton beats Bush (who had a very high approval rating due to the Gulf War)."

Minor quibble: Bush's approval rating had sagged due to the recession in the early 90s.

The "read my lips" broken promise, even if it was good policy, and the fact that Bill Clinton was a uniquely strong, once in a generation candidate (like Kennedy, Reagan, or Obama) sealed the deal.

7/27/2024 10:30:17 PM

very good point. also worth noting the potential of a september fed cut

[Edited on July 28, 2024 at 12:07 AM. Reason : or the prospect of a Vance influenced dollar]

7/28/2024 12:04:51 AM

^^Ross Perot sealed the deal.

7/28/2024 7:16:32 AM

If by some long shot Shapiro does beat out Roy - does SNL go with Andy Samberg, or Fred Amerson to meme him? That would be a way tougher decision than that of who Kamala should pick (the choice is obvious).

7/28/2024 10:03:32 AM

Maya Rudolph did her before. Who did you have in mind? I don't watch enough to know the cast that well.

7/28/2024 10:12:12 AM

^^ yeah that too.

...and interestingly, the recession was over, but people still viewed GWHB negatively on the economy. Reminds me a little bit of right now where people are complaining about the economy--there's plenty I don't like about President Biden, but I recognize that the economy is doing fine. On inflation specifically, I attribute that partly to COVID aftereffects and partly to policies of both Trump and Biden, with the fact that the economy has been strong making it tougher to tamp down inflation.

^ PredictIt, for what it's worth, has Shapiro most likely, then Kelly. Then Tim Wall as a distant 3rd, and then Roy Cooper leading the single-digit percentage candidates.

7/28/2024 10:17:32 AM

^^Try reading the referenced post more carefully next time, idiot!

7/28/2024 12:00:59 PM

haha

7/28/2024 11:53:17 PM

Cooper is apparently dropping out of the VP race


....to challenge Kooky Kamala for Prez???

7/29/2024 8:07:44 PM

Cooper out
https://www.threads.net/@cnn/post/C-BqOzRqE_X/?xmt=AQGzojqmxlHOhWrK5HimRlhui8-B0cHZDt9gdV4MOSUqPg

7/29/2024 9:13:28 PM

That settles it, I'm officially voting for Trump now

7/29/2024 9:19:04 PM

And Mark Robinson.

7/29/2024 9:20:48 PM

write-in "The Coz"

7/30/2024 12:30:33 PM

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/31/kamala-harris-vp-pick-wall-street-donors

Rumors saying it’ll be a Governor

7/31/2024 10:33:06 AM

I dunno much about Tim Walz other than seeing a few clips of him, but he seems like a good counterpart imo

8/1/2024 11:09:00 PM

I like walz more than Shapiro

8/1/2024 11:54:16 PM

Walz just seems so old looking to me. Don't really know much about him. Idk why i just don't care for mark kelly all that much. But he compliments her the best I guess. I just don't view him as a vice president. Shapiro must have good crossover appeal if he is so liked in PA, don't really know about him either. Her and Shapiro seem closest to what I think of when looking to the future

[Edited on August 2, 2024 at 12:27 AM. Reason : Breath of fresh air etc]

[Edited on August 2, 2024 at 12:48 AM. Reason : Hey what about buttedge? That'd be pretty cool too. ]

8/2/2024 12:26:31 AM

Tim Walz and Brad Pitt are the same age

8/2/2024 1:28:57 AM

I wonder what Aaron Sorkin has to say on the matter... Paul Ryan for VP?

8/3/2024 1:36:31 AM

This dumbass better not choose Walz. Either Kelly or Shapiro would be a great choice (obviously they each have relative greater strengths over each other).

8/4/2024 2:17:00 PM

Agreed, I don't think it should be Walz

8/4/2024 2:38:15 PM

^^why not walz? I don't know about him

8/4/2024 3:54:47 PM

I think one thing Trump was actually right about is that VP doesn't really matter much and that people are voting for President.

That said, I think she needs a white dude for VP.

8/4/2024 4:05:10 PM

It seems like only white dudes are being seriously considered.

8/4/2024 6:00:40 PM

Misread

[Edited on August 4, 2024 at 6:13 PM. Reason : Nm]

8/4/2024 6:12:27 PM

Quote :

"This dumbass better not choose Walz. Either Kelly or Shapiro would be a great choice (obviously they each have relative greater strengths over each other)."

LOL!

Might be the least divisive, though. He is non-threatening to most groups and can perhaps be an effective attack dog.

8/6/2024 9:10:24 AM

He’s the best communicator of the lot, I’m sad it’s not Kelly but I get why

I don’t really know walz’s ideology, seems more conservative than most democrats

8/6/2024 9:12:11 AM

Not sure there will be much of an enthusiasm bump with him, but I guess we'll see.

8/6/2024 9:13:22 AM

^^ He's actually more progressive, but looks like a conservative

8/6/2024 9:15:28 AM

Some of the squad endorsed him so he has to be pretty progressive to get that endorsement. Bernie did as well.

8/6/2024 9:39:09 AM

she chose Walz

[Edited on August 6, 2024 at 9:49 AM. Reason : that's a +1 for me. still want to know why theduke thought it would be a bad move]

[Edited on August 6, 2024 at 9:51 AM. Reason : I also like that it clears the way for the next election to not coronate walz. a real primary!]

[Edited on August 6, 2024 at 9:53 AM. Reason : or maybe not. i keep forgetting he's only 6 months older than kamala lol]

8/6/2024 9:47:38 AM

Dude looks a lot older than 60

8/6/2024 9:57:16 AM