what happened with BBY?

ah earnings release isn't until 12, i thought someone said ten

[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 10:32 AM. Reason : 12]

3/26/2009 10:30:40 AM

I'm not quit sure what went on but the earnings were actually released at 8am with a conference call set for 10am.

Overall it was a pretty strong earnings announcement and I wish I had thought of this strategy

http://www.888options.com/strategy/long_strangle.jsp

instead of just trying to pick a side. The puts I have are down about 80% while the calls that were near the money at the close yesterday are up 280%.

I have a feeling in the event of a really bad (or even moderately bad) earnings miss the the reverse would have happened with the puts up well over 100% and the calls down 50-75%. More lessons learned.

3/26/2009 10:48:04 AM

that almost sounds like a sure way to make money 4 times a year.

a little too good.

Actually, this seems like a really good SKF/FAZ play for the up and coming weeks.

[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 10:53 AM. Reason : actually]

3/26/2009 10:50:33 AM

Well, only if you expect big moves on earnings annoucements. And in a highly volatile market like this, it seems like any "flash point" type of company this could apply. But you'd need to get the options at a point when the volatility was low, as I suspect was the case for BBY.

I doubt this would work quite as well with any of the bank stocks around earnings time as I suspect the option premiums would be really steep on both sides of the current strike. However, as volatile as this market is it might still be a worthy play. If anything, you don't have "unlimited" downside risk in the event you guess wrong (like I did).

It's definitely something I am going to look into going forward.

Quote :

"At any given time before expiration, assuming the options still have time value left, an investor could close both options or close out one “leg” of the overall position. One could potentially close out the call side or the put side and then simply maintain just a long call or long put position – this would change the profile of the strangle into only that of a long call or long put. For example if the underlying has increased in value significantly and the investor has now turned bearish on the underlying, selling the call and continuing to hold the put would be one choice to consider. They could “take profits” on the call portion of the strangle and after selling to close the call, would merely have a long put position."

It actually would probably have been the perfect BBY play (hindsight!). I would go ahead and sell the Calls now for a hefty profit and just sit on the puts waiting on the profit taking and overall market to turn back down and sell the puts for less of a loss (compared to right now) or maybe even a profit if the market turns back soon enough.

[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 10:57 AM. Reason : .]

3/26/2009 10:53:58 AM

I almost went long on YGE this morning. I'm really wishing I had. Those C funds are tying me up something major.

If I had 25k in my account so i could pattern day trade with no issues then i could cut the losses and make it up on small gains. Sadly this is not the case.

3/26/2009 11:13:05 AM

About that, between my 401k and individual account, I'm well above the 25k mark. Any ideas on if it is a per account basis or per individual. I have a hunch it is per account, but I haven't looked into it yet.

3/26/2009 11:14:32 AM

sadly its per account. otherwise i could really take advantage of it.

Anyone have an interest free loan I can have of 25k?

anyone?

bueller?

3/26/2009 11:18:00 AM

I think I might try the strangle with RMBS buying April 10Ps and 11Cs.

3/26/2009 11:31:24 AM

thought about chasing RHAT, but am feeling well late to the party. might look at on a pullback.

i guess i sold BIDU too soon - oh well, i'll look for a pullback there as well.

3/26/2009 11:38:08 AM

I looked a couple of stocks and the strangle play seems to work reasonably well for gainers and losers.

For RHT, if you would have bought strangles for a total of about 1.15 into the close yesterday, you'd be looking at a .20 gain.

For STP you would have paid .95 total for the play and be looking at a 1.05 gain right now.

It works in the other direction too.

If you would have picked up SNDA into the close you'd have paid 1.40 for the total and be looking at a .29 gain right now.

Granted, these guys had big moves to make the strangle work, so you need to find a stock that has the options cheap at the moment (relative to history) but could get volatile at any given point in the near future. I'm thinking DRYS, LVS, AUY but I don't know how expensive they are (haven't looked yet).

3/26/2009 12:00:05 PM

btw, i like the strangle strategy more than the straddle. i also like getting long dated calls during pull backs - this includes leaps. i've done some one off stuff, but have never taken the time to develop any kind of strategy.

also, DRYS anyone? in at 5.2

..one more thing, i <3 trailing stops



[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 12:23 PM. Reason : [Edited on March 26, 2009 at 12:12 PM. Reason : ]]

3/26/2009 12:01:24 PM

Damn YGE at close yesterday would have been a good move. Up 43% right now. Not bad at all for a days work.

This C is killing me.

3/26/2009 12:34:38 PM

out of fas again, this tiem at 6.89

3/26/2009 3:39:56 PM

also, trailing stop got me out of FSLR at 148.9

:/

[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 3:43 PM. Reason : meh]

3/26/2009 3:39:56 PM

Damn. I'm glad I picked up JBHT when it was near 20.

3/26/2009 3:43:36 PM

FAS will go down below 6 in the next few days, market is way overbought, dont see much upside past 8000

3/26/2009 4:34:22 PM

^ i hear you. I imagine that tomorrow we could crash and if not then we'll do it monday. The only thing that is tripping me up is the Market to Market news release that is set to come out tomorrow. But the channels are so close right now and we're close to the 100 day SMA which should show us major resistance.

If this doesn't happen, we're bullish for sure.





[Edited on March 26, 2009 at 4:56 PM. Reason : pretty pictures]

3/26/2009 4:47:27 PM

Eh? The 200 is well above, are you referring to the upper channel line?

I wouldn't get too hasty to move out of anything right now unless it is simply for taking profit, and this is from someone that is down probably 4k right now on short positions.

Again, the market wasn't shaken at all by the really shitty GDP and unemployment news and on top of that Best Buy and some other retailers reported slightly better than analysts (albeit shitty) expectations.

We're just in a news/earnings dead zone right now. We have another week or so before stuff starts to really happen. It's still whipsaw territory.

3/26/2009 4:57:05 PM

^i corrected it with 100, i meant to type that but typed 200 instead.


oh i know. thats why i'm saying this could go bull, especially with the next two weeks worth of information.

3/26/2009 5:16:36 PM

Thinking about picking up some C, AIG, and BAC. Should I pick it up now or wait a bit?

3/26/2009 7:23:03 PM

unless you're not already in it i wouldn't get in any of those long, quite yet. but i would definitely swing trade them, if i were you.


if we gap up, short them. then cover around 2 and buy long around 3, sell that on the next days gap up, rinse repeat.

3/26/2009 7:57:11 PM

I'm thinking we're going to see a massive sell off this afternoon

3/27/2009 11:13:01 AM

out of DRYS @ 5.97

^ yeah, i tightened up my trailing stops just incase



[Edited on March 27, 2009 at 12:15 PM. Reason : ^ ]

3/27/2009 12:14:02 PM

Quote :

" dont see much upside past 8000"

also, Fast Money's been calling S&P 900 a near term top, so i'm starting to tighten up my stops anywhere north of 850

3/27/2009 12:20:34 PM

http://247wallst.com/2009/03/26/commercial-real-estate-is-snake-in-the-grass-for-banks/#more-28454

time for SRS round 2?

3/27/2009 12:40:23 PM

^^SPEAKING OF FAST MONEY, DYLAN RATTIGAN QUIT FAST MONEY
today is his last day,
market collapse will ensue

3/27/2009 1:43:34 PM

^^I'm picking that up next Friday.

3/27/2009 3:18:26 PM

Quote :

"Thinking about picking up some C, AIG, and BAC. Should I pick it up now or wait a bit?"

I picked up an extra 500 shares of AIG @$1.00 today. Though, I admit I am a stock market noob.

3/27/2009 3:33:57 PM

I'm curious to see how long it will take AIG to shoot up.

3/27/2009 3:42:55 PM

as am I. It's one I'm planning on keeping for a while though.

3/27/2009 3:48:03 PM

im wondering if it will dip much further, id love to get is at .35/share like it was just a few weeks ago but im not sure if it will get that low again.

3/27/2009 5:45:36 PM

Has anyone here looked into Solar power stocks, any recommendations on where to look?

3/29/2009 10:12:56 AM

In general, they corrected a lot as the plunge in the price of oil and the overall economy tanking put a halt to investment plans.

SunPower is down 65% YoY, First Solar is down 35% YoY, ENER down 50% YoY. The past months bear rally has brought FSLR back up 40% but hasn't been a big help for SunPower or ENER.

FSLR is clearly the class of the industry, but it was just downgraded with a price target of $150 and it currently trades at $147.

3/29/2009 10:52:40 AM

Futures down over 3% at the moment. Somehow, when I was doing some reasearch this weekend thinking about loading up on some QID, FAZ, SDS, and perhaps SRS, that the market was going to gap down big on Monday.

3/30/2009 4:09:28 AM

Wish I could have gotten some FAS at 5.30 this morning. If the financials can get back to even after this big gap down, that will be a good benchmark to just how strong this rally is. If them and the S&P can't make it back to 805, then we might have found the turn point.

3/30/2009 7:40:51 AM

eh, i think you're in a better position not holding any of that. 811 went from being support to resistance. We topped out last week at 832 and haven't looked back since. I'm not seeing things moving forward. I wish i had switched out of C and into SKF last week when i thought about it.

3/30/2009 9:19:59 AM

loaded up on SRS on friday 131 shares at 52.70

first time i've bought anything with "real" money rather than trading in my 401k account in about 9 years.

3/30/2009 9:21:10 AM

Closed April 7.50 covered calls for .48 per share gain. Sold April 35 FAZ calls for fairly hefty loss

Have an open order to close a piece of my BBY play for a small profit.


Looking to take a piece of SSO at some point today if we make it back above 800 or so.

Would love to sell some naked FAS 5Ps right about now.

1000 shares of FAS at 5.42. Stop set to 5.30.

[Edited on March 30, 2009 at 9:55 AM. Reason : .]

3/30/2009 9:43:03 AM

I would not buy FAS at all today if i were you.

Unless you're looking to buy it and then sell it for a few pennies gain intra-day.


otherwise, stay away.

3/30/2009 9:55:24 AM

We'll see, I think this market is going to do whatever it takes to get back to 800-805 before close. This rally isn't done yet. 480 is also support on the RIFIN that we won't breach in any meaningful way today.

FAS should get to 5.75 eventually, I'll take that small profit.

3/30/2009 10:13:10 AM

stopped out of SRS @ $59.

~$800 in less than 2 (business) days.

but I'm sure it will be at $70 within a couple of hours

3/30/2009 10:19:24 AM

got in to UAUA at 4.53

will hold this for a while

3/30/2009 11:31:38 AM

starting a relationship with EDC

got some at 37.89, will pile in more if/when it goes lower

3/30/2009 11:59:48 AM

Got booted out of FAS

3/30/2009 12:00:42 PM

this is where you buy FAS

3/30/2009 3:41:17 PM

^ agreed in terms of price point, but i don't ever want to sleep on it (FAS as well as FAZ). would rather trade it intraday. i avoid holding it overnight because of the damage the boys in DC could inadvertently trigger in the closed market hours. if i miss a gap higher, atleast i slept well that night.

i've been making about a dollar a share per day over the last fortnight. if this bear market rally ends in a few low volume down days, we could bounce along the bottom for a while without the FAS or FAZ providing the easy trades we've seen the last week and half.


also, i got some RHT at 17.45 -- it performed in a bad tape and has open source trends in favor in this economy.




[Edited on March 30, 2009 at 5:14 PM. Reason : [Edited on March 30, 2009 at 5:13 PM. Reason : ]]

3/30/2009 4:45:21 PM

Quote :

"loaded up on SRS on friday 131 shares at 52.70"

Quote :

"stopped out of SRS @ $59. ~$800 in less than 2 (business) days. but I'm sure it will be at $70 within a couple of hours "

nice. I made almost the exact same trade, bought 120 on Thursday at $49.25 and got stopped out today at $59.75 (which pissed me off cause it just barely hit my stop and it almost instantly shot up another $2 right after that)

oh well, can't get too greedy.

[Edited on March 30, 2009 at 5:55 PM. Reason : /]

3/30/2009 5:53:25 PM

who do you guys suggest for a brokerage acct? for the most part i want to invest long-term... maybe a few short-trades here and there with some side-money.

3/30/2009 6:09:54 PM

I use Scottrade and I'm pretty pleased with the way things work, $7 trades are pretty cheap too if you do decide to make some day trades

Only complaint I have is that one time I had a limit buy order and decided to cancel it, however, about 5 to 10 minutes later it managed to still fill the order, and I had to sell the stock for a $70 loss plus $14 in trade fees- called my local branch and they said they couldn't do anything about it.

3/30/2009 7:25:01 PM

Quote :

"^ agreed in terms of price point, but i don't ever want to sleep on it (FAS as well as FAZ). would rather trade it intraday. i avoid holding it overnight because of the damage the boys in DC could inadvertently trigger in the closed market hours. if i miss a gap higher, atleast i slept well that night."

I agree completely. Yesterday I felt was a pretty safe bet because of the beating that was taken all day and the effort made to remain above resistance levels.

i didn't go for it, though. it was just advice for Fail Boat. I cashed out of my C earlier in the day (looks to be a mistake as of right now) and am taking a breather for a while because that took out a lot of my capital.

3/31/2009 9:33:29 AM