http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/

20% is still pretty damn high

6/29/2016 3:10:36 PM

Kind of interesting that Istanbul terror attack drowned out any chatter about his recent trade policy speech, that has been his only actually policy-based speech so far.

And he can't capitalize on the Istanbul attack with islamophobia because Istanbul is mostly Muslim city, but the heroic officers and victims were Muslim.

6/29/2016 3:20:21 PM

20%? I didn't think the chances of asteroids destroying the entire northeast and western US were that high.....

6/29/2016 3:23:22 PM

^^^ Same guy also predicted Trump had a 5% chance of winning the nomination.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/09/15/nate_silver_trump_has_about_5_chance_of_winning.html

video is gone, but transcript remains.

6/29/2016 3:47:23 PM

Have we reached the stage of the cycle where everyone starts calling out Nate Silver and not understanding what probabilities are?

Yep.

6/29/2016 3:52:12 PM

every damn election cycle

6/29/2016 3:54:12 PM

"Nate Silver said this lib-ral senator had a 55% percent chance of winning and he lost! NATE WAS WRONG! WHERE'S YOUR HOMO JEW-GOD NOW!?!"

6/29/2016 6:35:41 PM

fwiw, I wasn't questioning 538- he's usually right. I'm just terrified his calculations are somehow off like they have been every once in a while.

6/29/2016 6:40:26 PM

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/after-saying-he-forgave-loans-campaign-trump-won-t-release-n601596

Such a sleaze ball... Seems like he's trying to stall to possibly pay himself back.

6/30/2016 11:11:08 AM

Quote :

"fwiw, I wasn't questioning 538- he's usually right. I'm just terrified his calculations are somehow off like they have been every once in a while."

Their comments weren't directed at you.

[Edited on June 30, 2016 at 11:18 AM. Reason : http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/]

6/30/2016 11:16:13 AM

^^ How do you expect to make money campaigning if you have to write off $45 million?

6/30/2016 4:48:26 PM

http://www.snopes.com/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit

This seems like it would be impossible to prove, and it's far more believable than the rumors of Obama gay limo driver relationship.

And if I recall, bill Clinton was involved with some of these same sex parties. But it would be interesting if this somehow were proven...

7/2/2016 12:43:45 AM

yes, and Bill Clinton has been accused of rape

by more than one person

and Hillary went after them with a vengeance

instead of believing them, as she has said recently

7/2/2016 11:35:38 AM

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-star-david-225058

I'm sure it was just an accident.

7/2/2016 4:53:56 PM

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/22-hillary-clinton-emails-declared-top-secret-218420

I'm sure it was just an accident.

7/2/2016 7:55:45 PM

I know it's hard to read but why not keep the Trump news in here and the Clinton news in that thread.

Instead of doing whatever kind of ignorant false equivalency you're going for here.

7/2/2016 8:56:11 PM

Kdogg gonna kdogg and post Hildebeast shit in all the threads.

We get it dude. You don't like her.

7/2/2016 10:22:18 PM

the star of david is the best star

7/2/2016 11:28:08 PM

I gotta say, it's pretty impressive to be able to turn a criticism if Hillary into anti-semetism based on a clip art star of David being used in a picture with money as the background.

Looks like a shitty job of photoshop work by whatever clueless 20 year old volunteer that put it together.

7/2/2016 11:32:43 PM

Wait. What? Did I read what happened here wrong? It looks like the last two things about Trump were turned into Clinton criticisms by the same user. Not the other way around. There is a thread for how shitty a candidate Clinton is. This is about Trumps shittiness and possible mental illness.

Unless you're talking about the Trump post itself?

If you are taking about the star thing there is some context. If this is Romney or McCain that would be one thing but it's Trump... who has a huge online presence of anti-Semitic followers (I mean just google some of the horrible shit that's been said to Jewish conservative media members). I think you're being naive if you don't realize that. His campaign sure noticed it with a quickness.

[Edited on July 3, 2016 at 6:50 AM. Reason : It's early and my kid was up all night sick so I could just be an idiot]

7/3/2016 6:49:44 AM

Donald Trump rapes women and children. Clinton should focus on that, not this Mickey Mouse bullshit.

Of course so did Bill so maybe that's why.

7/3/2016 7:01:45 AM

Pretty sure unsubstantiated rape claims are the definition of Mickey Mouse shit.

7/3/2016 8:28:07 AM

Is there anyone here who is actually planning on voting for Trump? I get we have some pretty hardcore conservatives, but I figure everyone is at least educated enough to recognize what a disaster Trump would be, not just for this country but the entire world. This would be like if Kanye West somehow became the Dem nominee vs a Romney or Bush. As much as I'd hate it, would definitely just take the L on that one

7/3/2016 9:17:34 AM

That's probably the best analogy I've seen as far as candidates go...

7/3/2016 11:25:06 AM

There's few good ones to choose from, but that's pretty solid.

7/3/2016 11:58:16 AM

Lol that thing with the Star of David was originally a meme from /pol. Quite clear if it came from that cesspool what it's intent was.

7/3/2016 12:32:56 PM

Quote :

"Looks like a shitty job of photoshop work by whatever clueless 20 year old volunteer that put it together."

7/3/2016 2:58:27 PM

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-s-star-david-tweet-about-hillary-clinton-posted-n603161

decades of dog whistles and there's finally a candidate who embraces them

yet some continue to think it's all just an odd coincidence

7/3/2016 9:58:09 PM

Quote :

"Dishonest media is trying their absolute best to depict a star in a tweet as the Star of David rather than a Sheriff's Star, or plain star!"

a fucking sheriff's star

7/4/2016 1:20:37 PM

The image was made by a neo nazi to send the message Hillary is controlled by a secret cabal of Jews that run the world.

Trump retweeted it, not the first neo nazi propaganda he's retweeted and maybe not the last.

Gary Johson has called trump "clearly" racist, Paul Ryan has called him racist, Lindsey graham has called him racist, Mitch McConnell has pretty strongly implied it. It's not a provocative statement anymore to say trump is a racist. Liberals have in the past used this as a mallet, but it's not just liberals saying this about trump. He's racist.

7/4/2016 10:24:00 PM

a sheriff's star, tho

7/5/2016 1:23:46 AM

https://mic.com/articles/147711/donald-trump-s-star-of-david-hillary-clinton-meme-was-created-by-white-supremacists

Quote :

"Though the thread where the meme was featured no longer exists, you can find it by searching the URL in Archive.is, a "time capsule of the internet" that saves unalterable text and graphic of webpages. Doing so allows you to see the thread on /pol/ as it originally existed. Of note is the file name of the photo, HillHistory.jpg, potentially a nod to the Neo-Nazi code for "HH," or "Heil Hitler," which the alt-right is fond of hiding in plain sight. "

http://archive.is/E0Dto

http://theslot.jezebel.com/the-trump-campaign-finally-deleted-an-offensive-tweet-1783115405

[Edited on July 5, 2016 at 9:50 AM. Reason : at least i know where kdogg gets all his delightful hillary pics from now]

7/5/2016 9:48:11 AM

Comey gave him some great campaign ad material, if he had any money to run them.....

7/5/2016 11:51:28 AM

So this is basically what the next 5 months will be. Trump's campaign tripping over itself instead of pointing out how unqualified Hillary is to be president. Everything she has touched has been an unmitigated disaster, but let's argue whether that was a sheriff star or star of David. So productive.

Dumbass GOP for giving this guy a platform. Where is the real conservative party?

7/5/2016 12:19:07 PM

Quote :

" Where is the real conservative party?"

real conservatives in party are going to just hope Trump loses and regroup in 2020 i guess

7/5/2016 3:43:49 PM

this fuckin guy

7/5/2016 5:40:03 PM

Trump/Saddam 2016

7/5/2016 8:09:18 PM

Quote :

"Where is the real conservative party?"

I don't know and it doesn't matter. Over half of the voters in America are liberal. It's only a matter of time before we get a Bernie Sanders liberal in the White House who raises taxes and starts giving out "free" stuff. Socialism has better odds of happening in America than either party cutting spending. Our society isn't interested in people like Romney, or Trump. I think Romney was a better economist than Obama. I saw a non-partisan article on the internet a few months ago that explained under Trump's plan people would actually see their taxes reduced, but if the government didn't cut some programs the national dept would increase. Under Clinton there would be a tax increase and under Sanders there would be an even larger tax increase. I think the real conservatives are still around, but they have no chance in hell at winning an election in our nation in the near future. That's just not what the people want.

[Edited on July 5, 2016 at 9:32 PM. Reason : .]

7/5/2016 9:30:29 PM

Quote :

"THE NATIONAL DEPT"

7/5/2016 10:52:34 PM

Dude is dumb. That's established.

7/5/2016 10:56:42 PM

7/5/2016 11:00:49 PM

Obviously he's overconfident. He treats this campaign as WWE competition.

[Edited on July 5, 2016 at 11:04 PM. Reason : Maybe it's fine but I need some time to adjust.]

7/5/2016 11:01:05 PM

Quote :

""Saddam Hussein was a bad guy, right? ... But you know what he did well? He killed terrorists. He did that so good," Trump told supporters at a campaign rally Tuesday night in Raleigh, North Carolina. "They didn't read 'em the rights, they didn't talk. They were a terrorist, it was over." Trump has previously said the world would be "100 percent better" if dictators like Hussein and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi were still in power."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-praises-late-iraqi-leader-saddam-terrorist-killer-40366012

Quote :

"HITLER WAS A BAD GUY, A REALLY BAD GUY, BUT....."

7/6/2016 9:45:22 AM

But he shows the toughness this country needs.

7/6/2016 10:07:54 AM

^^

Quote :

"Trump has previously said the world would be "100 percent better" if dictators like Hussein and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi were still in power.""

i thought that was your opinion too?

7/6/2016 10:27:41 AM

lol you and the fucking strawmans, man. they never end.

7/6/2016 10:28:26 AM

thats why i put question mark. you were against the regime change i thought

7/6/2016 10:29:47 AM

being against the Iraq War was doesn't mean

Quote :

" the world would be "100 percent better" if dictators like Hussein and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi were still in power"

don't think i've ever spoke on regime change in general, but even if I had, it wouldn't mean I agree with that stupidity

[Edited on July 6, 2016 at 10:45 AM. Reason : a fucking question mark. FOH]

7/6/2016 10:43:55 AM

the region would definitely be better off if Hussein and Gadhafi were still in power, but Trump managed to find the dumbest possible way to try to express that.

what i can see happening is one of his advisers trying to explain the failures of Obama/Clinton foreign policy, trump struggling to understand it, the adviser basically saying "iraq with hussein = not that bad. iraq without hussein = terrorists" and trump just running with it

tl;dr trump is an idiot

7/6/2016 10:59:01 AM

His daughter praises him as a SUPER smart man tho. Obviously it's not easy for a businessman running for president, who didn't go to law school.

7/6/2016 11:04:59 AM