21 pages of finanical security

[Edited on August 10, 2006 at 7:33 PM. Reason : i]

8/10/2006 7:33:08 PM

NTRI -- see TASR & HANS
SBUX -- too big, cant grow anymore see MCD
HANS -- again too big

8/10/2006 10:16:16 PM

6-percent CDs: Lock them up
Friday August 11, 6:00 am ET
Laura Bruce

The days of ever-rising certificate of deposit yields might be waning. But CDs offering 6 percent have surfaced, and this may be the time to lock in, what is by most standards, a very good return.

http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/060811/19585.html

8/11/2006 10:40:15 AM

agreed.....6% and no risk is very good deal

jsut remember inflation is 6% so you really dont make anything

8/11/2006 1:46:12 PM

Quote :

"inflation is 6%"

You can't measure forward inflation, so that number means little. Inflation could be 2% at some future point, or 10%. A lot of shit can happen.

Plus, where are you even getting that 6% figure from. the BLS has a very different figure.

8/11/2006 2:57:15 PM

I'm looking at getting into BOOM, Dynamic Materials Corp. I just finished up my internship there, and let me tell ya...they are going places

8/11/2006 5:44:07 PM

double post

[Edited on August 11, 2006 at 5:46 PM. Reason : freaking flood control]

8/11/2006 5:45:45 PM

in dec 2004.....what was BOOMs reason for the stock going.....well....boom?

8/12/2006 9:30:12 AM

and (just wondering), bet. may and june, why did the stock go down nearly 70%? are those issues solved now?

8/12/2006 9:32:00 AM

it was a great stock......but its been flat for a year

so if its gets momentum and breaks 43 then buy as much as u can

8/12/2006 10:45:43 PM

true inflation is volatile....but money markets and CD's only match inflation...they dont beat it

the only way to get a real return is to predict when rates will fall or stocks

8/12/2006 10:47:01 PM

so i'm thinking of short selling PEIX. the price has been diving and every report i read about ethanol shows that it has a murky future due to the agricultural implications (crop cycles, crop shortages etc) and the amount of energy necessary to produce it.

anyone else dabble in short selling?

8/14/2006 5:18:11 PM

most good traders do short stocks as part of their overall strategy. i don't consider myself "good" or a "trader", and generally don't like to short.

8/15/2006 11:27:50 AM

very risky to short

better off buying options

the stock has gotten killed already...but its financial look great so it may go back up

better off shorting HANS

8/15/2006 2:23:00 PM

VWO is my favorite etf at the moment.

8/15/2006 2:32:54 PM

Good news on inflation:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060815/wall_street.html?.v=14

8/15/2006 2:55:02 PM

nobody cares except you

8/15/2006 2:55:20 PM

i hope that was an intended trolling

8/15/2006 3:10:22 PM

i think we back

the summer slide/doldrums aren't completely over, but it is looking like we will have a decent second half barring any flare up in the middle east

8/17/2006 11:43:13 AM

OH WE BACK

8/17/2006 11:46:20 AM

Harley Davidson changed its ticker symbol from HDI to HOG this week. I thought it was pretty cool.

Also its over $58 right now. The last lot that I bought of it was at $52 and change.

8/17/2006 12:01:49 PM

wow almost a 3point gain for me today - wasn't expecting that

8/17/2006 1:46:42 PM

i plan on making heavy use of CD's and moneymarkets and then rotate some of that into some nice long term stock

8/17/2006 1:56:53 PM

CRM is up 20%.

Still nowhere near the $40 where I got in.

To my credit, that tip came from my boss, not me.

8/17/2006 1:57:20 PM

TRID's been on the rise this week

also, I think this is probably a good time to buy BMHC puts

BMHC shares rose on rumors of a buyout, possibly by Home Depot.

That would be the dumbest move on record. Already, homebuilders are slowing building faster than they expected and their contractors like BMHC are slowing fast. At the same time, builders are squeezing companies like BMHC for better pricing.

8/17/2006 2:00:51 PM

Quote :

"wow almost a 3point gain for me today - wasn't expecting that"

Yeah, same here. Just another 35 years of days like this and I'll be set...

8/17/2006 2:34:29 PM

On monday, I'll be purchasing XLU and IXJ to get into the utilities and healthcare sectors. I believe we're right at the peak of a bull market over the past 9-12 months, and are just about to enter an early bear, so i'm reallocating some of my 401k holdings into Utilities, healthcare and Consumer non-cyclicals.

Anyone know of any other ETFs for consumer non-cyclicals other than XLP and IYK?

[Edited on August 18, 2006 at 5:00 PM. Reason : zcvx]

8/18/2006 4:57:23 PM

what are some indicators pointing to a bear?

8/20/2006 11:58:57 PM

From a simple standpoint of the business economic cycle, we're at the end of a 4 year cycle. October of 2002 was the end of the last bear market, and the past four years have shown to be a bull market. 10/2002 was also the end of a 12 year cycle, which partially explains why we're approaching the end of the 4 year bull with such a recent peak. This should indicate a much milder bear than what we saw in 2000.

Now, keep in mind that I'm predicting this based on my own research of readily available information. I don't see any of the more credible sources and financial gurus saying anything similar, so I could be way the hell off, but I want to experiment and see if i'm onto something.

This week also may have some negative news - retail sales report, home sales report, and unemployment. I suspect that all of these will show economic weakness and while this is good for taming inflation, it's bad overall.

8/21/2006 10:06:51 AM

Bought 36 shares of IXJ @ 56.10 per share
Bought 58 shares of XLU @34.46 per share

8/21/2006 11:03:55 AM

^^ to expound a little more on that:

Lowe's 2Q Profit Rises but Cuts Outlook for the Year, Shares Fall 4 Percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060821/earns_lowe_s.html?.v=10

also, Tomorrow Toll brothers releases its earnings, followed Wednesday by the Housing sales release for existing homes. Thursday is new home sales. There will very likely be some bad news every day this week for housing.

And Thursday is the consumer durables report: ETH and WHR will be affected.

While inflation is looking benign, this week is about housing and consumer spending on big ticket items.

[Edited on August 21, 2006 at 11:43 AM. Reason : ag]

8/21/2006 11:34:58 AM

A great majority of the growth in the last 4 years came between jan-dec 03. It piddled around for the next two years and only this year has it really started to look promising. I'd be surprised if a bear is around the corner.

[Edited on August 21, 2006 at 11:39 AM. Reason : .]

8/21/2006 11:38:23 AM

this kind of feels like the summers of 1994-1995

8/21/2006 1:31:52 PM

that was when i bought my first real six string

no, that was the summer of 69

whoops

8/21/2006 3:16:47 PM

As predicted, Toll Brothers 3Q Profit Falls 19 Percent

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060822/earns_toll_bros.html?.v=9

Here's a pretty interesting tidbit I read:

"Understanding the Housing Bubble
Put a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will jump out immediately.
But put a frog in a cool pot of water and heat it slowly, the frog will stay put until it dies.

Right now, housing prices are beginning to fall. Relative to where the prices were last year, these new prices look great. But relative to where they were 4 years ago, these prices are still boiling hot.

My point is that housing prices feel ok even at the recent reduced prices, and that's because the market got overheated gradually. When things cool down, they will need to drop a lot more - to about 2002 prices."

8/22/2006 9:05:29 AM

So, whats a good resource as a tutorial to begin your investing outside your company retirement fund?

Ive been reading up on motley fool's beginners guide, but want more.

suggestions?

8/22/2006 9:17:15 AM

start perusing the research links on marketwatch.com

and http://moneycentral.msn.com/home.asp

8/22/2006 12:11:33 PM

Also, getting a firm understanding of macroeconomics helps immensely.

8/22/2006 12:14:04 PM

Wall Street strategists see shades of 1987

One MarketWatch columnist notes that some Wall Street researchers and pundits are pondering the crash of 1987 as of late--and comparing it to what's happening now in 2006. A New York University economist has even published a discussion titled "The Scary Similarities between 2006 and 1987," which pretty much sums up what some are feeling. You can see why people might be concerned: Trade protectionism, trigger-happy investors, extreme geopolitical risks, little understood financial derivatives, and very choppy markets. Let's hope that the comparisons prove to be little more than a futile summer exercise.....

Surprise: Bears still growling about 1987
Commentary: They see similarities in 2006 to the '87 crash
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA6C3B0B0%2D3ACA%2D493D%2D8A66%2D64125E3D77D4%7D&siteid=

8/22/2006 1:12:26 PM

that would suck

8/22/2006 1:47:05 PM

I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure P/Es are much more attractive than they were in '87. I mean, from what I can see, we're getting big earnings for pennies on the dollar now. I don't think the market will collapse too far even if a correction were afoot because they have such strong earnings and already fire-sale prices.

8/22/2006 2:15:33 PM

I don't see a market collapse, by any means, either, but I do feel that the bear is about done hibernating.

8/22/2006 4:41:07 PM

Existing Home Sales Drop in July

Sales of previously owned homes plunged in July to the lowest level in 2 1/2 years and the inventory of unsold homes climbed to a new record high, fresh signs that the housing market has lost steam.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060823/economy.html?.v=9

8/23/2006 12:00:11 PM

man i wish sun would pick up, I'd make a killing

8/23/2006 12:10:45 PM

I'm debating picking up some Weyerhaeuser (WY).

They have good numbers, but a portion of their business is built on real estate and timber sales - opinions?

Their stock was also up considerably on news that they would merge copier business with Domtar.

8/23/2006 4:25:15 PM

Big day for RMBS...up 17.66% I'm considering buying a few more shares...

8/23/2006 5:12:35 PM

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10305469_2.html

Quote :

"Cisco Systems (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) is "about to break out and go to $25 before it takes a real breather," Cramer told his viewers. The stock was recently at $21.05. There was time when Cramer said he hated Cisco, as it was a "do-nothing relic from the tech bubble that couldn't get its act together." But that's all changed now that the company's gotten its groove back, he said. It's time to buy Cisco because it is in the house of pleasure, Cramer said. The company recently reported its first better-than-expected quarter in two years and "shocked the world with its good numbers," he said. Cisco is also in a much more diversified business. In addition to being an "arms merchant" to telephone companies, it's now also one for the cable companies, Cramer said. In the fight between phone companies and cable operators, Cisco is the winner, he said. Both want to offer broadband, and they need to go to Cisco to do it. Cramer said that Cisco reminds him of Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) right after it came out with the iPod. For Cisco, the iPod is Scientific-Atlanta, which it recently acquired. The company has made some brilliant moves, he said. Now at $21.05, Cramer believes that the stock will see $25 "as more cable companies buy its equipment to ramp up the rollout of the triple play," he said."

dammit, I consider this to be the kiss of death.

8/24/2006 9:04:18 AM

good to see im no the only one that dislikes those guys

8/24/2006 9:07:50 AM

And in our fourth installment of "bad news for the economy..."

The inventory of unsold homes has not been this high since..... "the last nation-wide housing recession".

Unsold homes hit 13-year high

Sales of existing homes fall nationally and in North Carolina overall. But Triangle sales rose
WASHINGTON - July was dry for the U.S. real estate market, as sales of existing homes plunged 4.1 percent to a two-year low, prices stagnated, and the number of homes on the market soared to a 13-year high.
Figures released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors show a continued implosion in the housing market, with inventories up sharply as prices are softening.

http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/478390.html


The only good news.... the RTP area is still doing well... sales increased 3.4% locally !

8/24/2006 1:49:09 PM

a family friend who is a realtor told me there's about 30 families/day moving to Raleigh (plus Raleigh suburbs i think)

8/24/2006 2:05:54 PM