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 Message Boards » » The Stock Market in 2008 Page 1 ... 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 ... 70, Prev Next  
skokiaan
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like a cobra

4/8/2008 11:28:14 PM

CharlesHF
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V

4/9/2008 10:46:38 AM

David0603
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Weird. I thought it would hit 70 before it had another drop.

Lets see if I get any responses this time.

I currently max out my 401K. I'm thinking of halting my employee stock contributions and maxing out my roth 401K instead. Thoughts?

4/9/2008 1:59:58 PM

statehockey8
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whats the deal with your company match

4/9/2008 7:11:31 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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btw if i had any money saved in WaMu right now, id probably withdraw it all and put it into a different bank. their mtg dept is going to sink that ship

4/9/2008 7:48:03 PM

David0603
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100% to 6%. Why does that matter?

4/9/2008 10:11:35 PM

statehockey8
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they'll match both the Reg. and the Roth the same? if so, it just depends your future tax brackets

4/9/2008 10:59:25 PM

David0603
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Yeah, the match is the same for the both and its a pretax match regardless of if I do a roth 401k or not.

4/9/2008 11:05:47 PM

ssjamind
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last night on Fast Money, Dennis Gartman, one of the smartest people in the business, gave a shout out to NC State

apparently he got a Masters from here

props

4/10/2008 1:57:53 PM

CharlesHF
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Oh darn I was hoping he mentioned this thread.

4/10/2008 2:02:11 PM

CharlesHF
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Fuck you GE. Fuck you.

:mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

4/11/2008 10:20:04 AM

mkcarter
PLAY SO HARD
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that sux

4/11/2008 10:32:32 AM

CharlesHF
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Wow I'm down almost 10% TODAY from GE (90% from GE, the rest from everything going down due to GE).

4/11/2008 6:38:43 PM

rallydurham
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Good summary of why the DOW composite is meaningless.

Quote :
"Conglomerate General Electric(NYSE:GE) took a big hit Friday after reporting net income that was down 6% year over year and earnings from continuing operations bombing 8% in the first quarter. The news was downright dismal, and at last glance, GE was down 13% on the day, and yet the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had only fallen 2.14%.

GE is one of only 30 total stocks that make up the Dow. With today's icky news from GE, one would think the Dow would be down a lot more. But it's not. The truth is that GE's news barely affects the Dow. Let's explore why.


Calculating the Dow
First, it's important to understand that the DJIA is price-weighted, not market-cap weighted, like the Nasdaq Composite, or S&P 500. As Dow Jones puts it, "Their [DJ Indexes] component weightings are therefore affected only by changes in the stocks' prices, in contrast with other indexes' weightings that are affected by both price changes and changes in the number of shares outstanding."

Intuitive thought would conclude the Dow is calculated by adding up all of the prices within the index and then dividing by 30. But that's wrong.

Calculating the Dow (as of the close of April 10), using the aforementioned would look like this:

All 30 Prices Added = 1,545.32
Divided by 30 = 51.51

Clearly, the simple "average" is not what we see on a daily basis. Here's why: The boys and girls over at Dow Jones figured out that if you have an index of 100 stocks and each is trading at $100 a share, the index average would be $100. However, if you have 100 stocks and each is trading at $100 and one splits, you would then have a total of $950. And $950 divided by 10 = 95. Thus, the split caused a 5% decline in the index when it shouldn't have. (To learn more, read Understanding Stock Splits.)

To solve the problem, Dow Jones figured out that if you use a "divisor", the split issue is solved. The divisor is the total number less, the adjusted down split value. In other words, in the above example, by dividing the index total of $950 by 9.5 (notice 0.50 is removed for the split), the total is 100.

Over the years, Dow Jones has been slowly lowering the divisor to account for every split within the index. The Dow divisor is now: 0.122834016. So that's how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated. At any given moment all of the prices are added up and divided by 0.122834016. But there's even more to the story.

Price Weighting Built for Bullishness
I swear, those people over at Dow Jones are really, really savvy. If they were to market-cap weight their index, instead of price-cap, the historical performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average wouldn't be what it is. In the present 13-year ascending trend, the Dow is up about 700%, which sounds pretty good, doesn't it?

When you price-weight an index, the stocks that are more expensive absolutely have more pull on the larger value. If you have a $100 dollar stock and a $20 stock, the $100 stock is going to have five times the pull within the index over the $20 stock. That's why the Dow is naturally built for bullishness.

As stocks gain in value, they naturally add more top end weight to the index and pull it up. On the other hand, when one, or two of the most expensive stocks fall out of bed, they drag the Dow down quickly. That brings us back to our current example.

The top five stocks IBM (NYSE:IBM), ChevronTexaco (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM), 3M (NYSE:MMM) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) account for about 28% of the Dow's total weighting as of April 10. And as of April 10, GE was No.21 on the list, with only 2.38% weight. Now that it's fallen 13% during Friday's session, it will probably be No.26 on the list, with weighting of 2%, or less.

Parting Thoughts
So what you need to know is this: If the top stocks in the Dow begin to tumble, look out. When "lesser" stocks like GE report dismal earnings, and the top stocks hold ground, so will the Dow. "

4/12/2008 12:02:07 PM

ssjamind
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anybody use TurboTax? which version/edition?

does it pull in info from your broker?

how good is it for calls, puts, shorts?




right now i've got a massive spreadsheet going, but i want to know if TT is easier

thanks

4/12/2008 6:47:12 PM

skokiaan
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Just leave all the stock stuff out and it'll be easy

4/12/2008 8:16:36 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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put in orders for GE and CMG.

I feel CMG has a ton of room to grow and is a pretty good buy at 97-98

4/13/2008 10:45:08 AM

statehockey8
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I like the GE call with the recent battering

CMG has already made it's run...don't like

oh, and lick my balls BOOBS

4/13/2008 12:49:39 PM

theDuke866
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i've thought about GE, but i'm wary of buying a big dividend payer due to how Obama wants to tax dividends to death. i think i'd rather buy more growth oriented companies...then if the Dems win and raise capital gains rates, at least I can just keep holding until cooler heads prevail and lower them again.

4/13/2008 1:18:51 PM

rallydurham
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I wouldn't touch anything paying a big dividend if I was in a high income bracket. They get taxed at ordinary income rates for gods sake.

The Bush tax cuts are being repealed soon.

Dividends are for grandmothers using them to pay bills unless you are collecting them in a tax deferred account.

[Edited on April 13, 2008 at 7:24 PM. Reason : a]

4/13/2008 7:23:42 PM

tmmercer
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if capital gains increases again, its going to bring the market down, or at least not help it, its will discourage investing

4/13/2008 8:00:40 PM

YOMAMA
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Looks like my CC bet back in Jan is going to pay off.

4/14/2008 8:12:04 AM

Flyin Ryan
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^^ I think the stock market is doing a fine job on its own right now of discouraging investing.

Wachovia posts a 1st quarter loss of $350 million. I gotta run and get my money out after work.

(just kidding)

However, they are scrounging around asking for $7 billion.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20080414&id=8478900

4/14/2008 9:25:11 AM

Mr. Joshua
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Quote :
"i've thought about GE, but i'm wary of buying a big dividend payer due to how Obama wants to tax dividends to death."


I just bought back in at $32.11. I'm just planning on selling covered calls on my GE every months for the next year. If it get called away then oh well.

4/14/2008 3:42:52 PM

kwsmith2
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I don't think there is anything really wrong with the Dow as a measure. A market cap weighted index gives more weight to companies with high valuations as well.

Typically we think of high valuations as being bullish, not just big price numbers.


Moreover, if you look at the dow vs. the Wilshire 5000 the tracking is darn good and when I was studying it a few years ago the tracking was actually better than the S&P 500.

4/14/2008 5:14:39 PM

Mr. Joshua
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I'll admit that the Dow Transportation Index is outdated and doesn't really serve it's original purpose anymore.

4/14/2008 5:28:49 PM

statehockey8
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GOOG starting to look attractive again

4/14/2008 6:40:52 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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you sonofa bitch

4/14/2008 7:05:24 PM

statehockey8
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GOOG is definitely looking more attractive than that last girl you banged

4/14/2008 8:03:17 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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yet still looking more attractive than the flames' playoff chances

4/15/2008 1:19:34 AM

statehockey8
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ouch...hope you're dreaming about jason arnott tonight

4/15/2008 6:51:28 AM

Mr. Joshua
Swimfanfan
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4/15/2008 2:15:09 PM

CharlesHF
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CROX: Ouch. Thankfully I have none...

4/15/2008 3:20:57 PM

tmmercer
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Yay intc

4/15/2008 6:16:13 PM

skokiaan
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I find this crox shit amusing

4/15/2008 10:33:01 PM

theDuke866
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i think you'd have to be a retard to invest in CROX. if you want to speculate on it, fine, but anyone with half a brain would have to know that putting money into a one-trick pony, foam-shoe fad in the fashion/apparel industry is pure gambling, and shouldn't be surprised when it goes up in smoke.

4/16/2008 1:00:39 AM

CalledToArms
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Quote :
"i think you'd have to be a retard to invest in [or wear] CROX"

4/16/2008 10:27:07 AM

mkcarter
PLAY SO HARD
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I can't believe it was trading at almost 80$/share at one point

4/16/2008 10:41:28 AM

ssjamind
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i have never ever ever been convinced CROX was a good buy

4/16/2008 11:44:30 AM

CharlesHF
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Quote :
""i think you'd have to be a retard to invest in [or wear] CROX""

I have two pairs; bought the second one due to wearing the first one out. I volunteer with the scuba program at school so I spend a decent bit of time on the pool deck. They are nice to wear around the pool -- they have lots of grip and if they get wet, who cares?

Other than that, I wouldn't really wear them except if I'm really lazy or in a hurry.

[Edited on April 16, 2008 at 12:01 PM. Reason : ]

4/16/2008 12:01:13 PM

CalledToArms
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well yea, that is an understandable usage. i was more referring to wearing them out.

4/16/2008 12:08:49 PM

CharlesHF
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I decided to get them after I slipped one day just walking along next to the pool; I wasn't going fast or running at all. Next thing I know I tried to catch myself and landed directly on my elbow + wrist. After that I decided it was time to wear something with some grip...

4/16/2008 12:20:54 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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Quote :
"BoobsR_gr8
All American
27493 Posts
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I feel CMG has a ton of room to grow and is a pretty good buy at 97-98

4/13/2008 10:45:08 AM
"


idk what crack i was smoking when i typed that, but i got in CMG at 107. So im happy right now at 113

Got in GE at 31.87, so thats basically nothing so far. both are likely to be semi-short term plays

4/16/2008 1:23:29 PM

Mr. Joshua
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I just picked up some USU at $5.00 per share and immediately sold covered calls at $5 in May for $0.52 each.

That should give me a return of over 10% in about a month. If it stays under $5 I'll be happy too as it's a bit undervalued.

4/16/2008 4:18:36 PM

skokiaan
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who started this crox shit in the first place??

4/16/2008 9:15:57 PM

rallydurham
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FCG is already up 18% for me in the one month since I purchased it. Do I hang on any longer? Seems like everytime it goes on a nice run it has a quick pullback.

I only bought in because I kept hearing how natural gas lags oil.

4/16/2008 9:47:49 PM

winn123
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it seems like most of you on here trade stocks pretty frequently...just curious as to what brokerage you use and how much you pay per trade

4/16/2008 10:12:38 PM

skokiaan
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everyone uses scottrade

4/16/2008 10:23:06 PM

CalledToArms
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up 4% today in my 401k, so close to even now..big tease. company stock is up like 16% or something in the last 4 weeks, so that has helped heh

4/16/2008 10:49:03 PM

ScHpEnXeL
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OH SHIT WE'RE IN POSITIVES AGAIN

by 0.78%

lol

4/16/2008 10:51:42 PM

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