Quote :

"The promise of Hillary dropping dead at any moment makes me more likely to vote for her"

Using life tables:

Probability of Hillary…
dying before Election Day				0.22761%
dying before inauguration				0.51421%
dying during first year as President			1.45840%
dying during second year as President			1.57896%
dying during third year as President			1.71245%
dying during fourth year as President			1.85832%
dying during first term as President			6.60813%

Probability of Trump…
dying before Election Day				0.40033%
dying before inauguration				0.95103%
dying during first year as President			2.45968%
dying during second year as President			2.61837%
dying during third year as President			2.77811%
dying during fourth year as President			2.94793%
dying during first term as President			10.80409%

9/7/2016 12:29:40 AM

what is the probability that either will be assassinated?

9/7/2016 12:35:07 AM

hey I wasn't being serious with the Rubio comment.

I think the entire general election has been one big farce.

9/7/2016 7:08:11 AM

FWIW, the election will be about this nonsense until the debates. Mostly because Trump is a bumbling idiot every time he tries and talks policy. He literally sounds like a third grader. Why would he engage in substantive policy talk when he knows he can't do it?

9/7/2016 7:33:53 AM

Both are so unfavorable that talking about their deaths appeals to the electorate.

9/7/2016 7:50:44 AM

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/new-clinton-benghazi-emails-227813

Quote :

"However, in a court filing early Wednesday morning, government lawyers said a closer review of the records the FBI located revealed only one of the messages was entirely absent from those produced by previous State Department searches: a flattering note sent by a veteran U.S. diplomat following her testimony on Benghazi before a Senate panel in January 2013."

9/7/2016 9:12:51 AM

Quote :

"This topic is about as low brow as Trump's dick comments. There are less than 70 days until election day and this is what the election is about right now."

clinton won the real issues, what real issues are there to debate?

the health of a presidential candidate is absolutely more relevant than their dick size, but i was never complaining about her health (blood thinners were disclosed a long time ago) i'm just wondering if the cough is a side effect of those and also if its why she often avoids the press (on account of it not making her look very good)

and also spitting the throat lozenge into a clear glass of water was totally bizarre

9/7/2016 9:22:37 AM

This commander in chief forum thing tonight is going to be interesting. It's an opportunity for her to show off some of her foreign policy chops but also an opportunity for Trump to bring up her hawkishness and support for all of our middle eastern misadventures.

Also should be fun to watch both of them bullshit about meaningful VA reform again.

9/7/2016 3:50:17 PM

Quote :

"also an opportunity for Trump to bring up her hawkishness"

He can bring up the Iraq vote sure, but I don't think he wants to harp on her hawkish in general, as that would play well to right-leaning folks.

9/7/2016 3:56:15 PM

Maybe, but I don't think he's all that concerned with the neocon vote anyway. He's already lost the votes he's going to lose from that bunch, and the real right wing types hate Hillary so much that they won't vote for her regardless.

This is going to be interesting, this is the first real compare and contrast public appearance we've seen. It's a shame they aren't actually going to be on stage together tonight.

9/7/2016 4:22:59 PM

Quote :

"neocon vote anyway. He's already lost the votes he's going to lose from that bunch, and the real right wing types"

Yeah I'm not talking about them...that's why I said right-leaning, meaning people towards the middle, especially those who are currently undecided

9/7/2016 4:50:59 PM

Is anybody watching this commander in chief forum. Hillary may have just burned herself on ISIS. She just said she will not commit ground troops in Iraq or Syria ever again. Exact words. That's a completely unachievable goal and is going to come back and bite her.

Even if you think that's what should be done (which almost no military leader believes) it's not something you can say with conviction that you will never due.

Oh, and she just spat out the no one on the terror watch list should be allowed to buy a gun line. Man, she was doing well up until that last 2 minutes.

9/7/2016 8:27:41 PM

And Trump already sounds like a dunderhead.

9/7/2016 8:34:26 PM

But Lauer didn't call him on his lie about Iraq War at all.

Agreed about Clinton. Can't guarantee never putting troops in.

9/7/2016 8:36:19 PM

Jesus, and he just trotted out the keep the oil in Iraq line. This is a fucking train wreck for him.

I mean, if he had the humility to say that hey, I'm not a foreign policy expert, I've not been privy to intelligence briefings up until now, I'll take the advice of military and intelligence leaders and use that to formulate a plan that will help us develop a coherent strategy for defeating ISIS and creating stability in the region.

9/7/2016 8:41:56 PM

OK, and a reasonable and intelligent answer about possible citizenship for someone serving in the armed forces.

9/7/2016 8:43:46 PM

Putin!

9/7/2016 8:48:05 PM

Puntin on Putin.

9/7/2016 8:48:52 PM

Blech. What a stumbling, bumbling mess from Trump.

I disagree with several of the things Hillary said, but she was clear on what she wanted to say and do.

I like Trump's take on allowing vets to utilize facilities other than VA hospitals if wait times are too great, but other than that he was completely incoherent.

I'm still aghast at Clinton committing to no troops in Iraq ever again.

9/7/2016 8:56:44 PM

The debates are going to be amazing. If I'm Hillary I demand one of these "forums" every single week. Trump just proved he's the single dumbest person to ever run for president.

9/7/2016 8:59:17 PM

Like, I feel bad for Trump in a weird way. He's clearly out of his depth.

Clinton didn't cover herself in glory and has a ton of issues but she clearly is equipped to handle tough questions and at least seem coherent under pressure.

Also it is borderline malpractice to not ask about his McCain comments in a military setting. Especially if you re-litigate emails for 7-8 minutes.

9/7/2016 9:00:30 PM

Hillary did OK, it was excellent compared to the low bar that is Trump, but against almost any other candidate she would have not faired so well.

You would think that after all the stuff she's gone through with the emails, regardless of what you think of that whole kettle of fish, that she would be able to talk about it without sounding and looking like she had been caught stealing out of her mother's purse.

9/7/2016 9:04:10 PM

Foreign policy is a realm she's going to lap him on pretty much any time there's any depth of question. This was about the worst environment Trump could be in.

He'll probably do better in the debates when there's an opportunity to attack instead of having to present his own ideas and he's looking at giving 1 minute responses not having to present detail or nuance. He operates best on soundbites and retorts.

I think there a decent chance he'll be able to hold his own a bit on domestic issues. He actually has some coherent stances (even if some of them are dumb) on domestic policy.

Hillary is the opposite, good on long form and with detail but awful in an unscripted debate.

9/7/2016 9:09:46 PM

He's going to do worse in the debates because he crumbles the second he gets pushback. Matt Lauer was a fucking joke tonight, letting him tell bald faced lies and pitching the softest softballs ever. Clinton will get to follow up on things he says and shred him.

9/7/2016 10:05:06 PM

Quote :

"Hillary may have just burned herself on ISIS. She just said she will not commit ground troops in Iraq or Syria ever again. Exact words. That's a completely unachievable goal and is going to come back and bite her. "

she has a 4-8 year window. outside of a direct attack domestically from either, why would she leave the option on the table?

we've been doing a pretty good job bombing the fuck out of them for a while now

9/8/2016 2:29:16 AM

Oh, I don't know, maybe the fact that we currently have troops on the ground in Iraq and no plans to bring them back on the next 5 months. Obama has slowly been trickling them and he now have thousands there again. I don't believe there's any chance Hillary will withdraw those forces.

9/8/2016 10:21:07 AM

Also who cares what she says at this point. Once she is elected she can go back on those things like every other politician does. She is going to win and she is going to be in office for 4 years unless the republicans find another way to royally fuckup things yet again, which at this point doesn't seem unlikely.

9/8/2016 10:23:16 AM

Quote :

"maybe the fact that we currently have troops on the ground in Iraq"

Currently having != committing

9/8/2016 10:25:21 AM

Yes, I understand that, and I also understand that we are woefully undermanned for the mission that those men are being asked to do, which is why military leadership has requested more troops at literally every opportunity. We are way, way undermanned. I've never heard a single person with experience in Iraq say that the 4-5k there now is enough to conduct a military operation of the size and scope needed.

We had a major pullback once already before ISIS, and if we do it again or if we continue to not have enough resources in the region to adequately fight the threat there it's hard to see a different outcome if we pull back again.

I wish we could get out today and never go back, but realistically we need to recommit significant numbers and see the task through to the end. Nation building is ugly and shouldn't be the goal, but when you duck up and go in you have a duty to see the task through and leave a stabile country when it's all said and done.

9/8/2016 11:13:38 AM

^ Orwell's endless war is here and the defense industry loves it.

9/8/2016 11:21:47 AM

It's been here for quite some time.

I've always been a big fan of the British admiralty's idea that you have a supreme navy so as to avoid war and make the prospect of attacking you so odious and costly as to make it unthinkable.

The birth of the military industrial complex post ww2 has indeed warped our perspective and dragged us into offensive wars on several occasions.

Again, I wish we had never gone in in the first place, but having done so we can't just abandon the populace whose nation-state we destroyed. We have an obligation to the people of Iraq at this point. Pulling out guarantees mass slaughter and/or enslavement of the civilian population, this isn't conjecture, this happens when ISIS is able to capture and hold territory.

Nation building and regime change should never be our foreign policy goals, but if you're going to do something you have an obligation to do it correctly.

9/8/2016 11:31:20 AM

Quote :

"Yes, I understand that, and I also understand that we are woefully undermanned for the mission that those men are being asked to do, which is why military leadership has requested more troops at literally every opportunity. We are way, way undermanned. I've never heard a single person with experience in Iraq say that the 4-5k there now is enough to conduct a military operation of the size and scope needed. "

Really? The mission is to "degrade and destroy ISIL", per our President. So far they've done a pretty damn good job of that. Major cities in Iraq including Ramadi, Fallujah, and Tikrit have already been purged by US backed forces. So have most of their holdings along the Syrian/Turkish border. They've all but entirely been pushed out of Libya as well. Meanwhile, especially in Iraq, the local military has gained valuable combat experience and are now more capable to defend themselves against these sorts of insurgencies than ever before. That would have never happened if we just dropped tens of thousands of US forces in the desert once again. Most importantly, the current tally of US casualties stands at 3. 3 vs 20k+ dead terrorists. By any possible measure this strategy has been a resounding success.

9/8/2016 11:43:11 AM

^And you people call me a hack?

9/8/2016 11:49:37 AM

I'm sorry, do you have any factual rebuttal for anything I just said? No? Ok then shut the fuck up you hack.

9/8/2016 11:52:09 AM

what in the world is hackish in that post?

9/8/2016 12:09:41 PM

A little testy are we?

I'm not trying to refute anything you say. It's just funny because they think I'm a hack even though I don't agree with about 40% of the Republican platform.

Yet you sit there and drink the kool-aid without question. It isn't just the shrikepost from above. It's every shrikepost taken in sum.

[Edited on September 8, 2016 at 12:11 PM. Reason : shrikepost]

9/8/2016 12:10:38 PM

^ Still waiting on your to detail what's hackish about that post. You made the claim. Back it up.

Quote :

"It's just funny because they think I'm a hack"

Because you post shit like this:

Quote :

"You don't have to believe in all of the conspiracy theories to believe that her Democratic ideology isn't going to line up with your Republican ideology."

and pretty much never have a positive thing to say about anyone with a D beside their name.

9/8/2016 12:12:48 PM

hahahahhaha Shrikepost™. I'm flattered.

9/8/2016 12:17:41 PM

I never claimed there was anything hackish about that particular post. He just never has anything bad to say about anyone with a D beside their name, which is pretty much the same as saying I never have anything good to say about someone with a D beside their name.

Now Bill? I liked Bill. I wasn't too into politics then, but in retrospect he was a good president. I don't agree with his treatment of women, but as a moderate president I think he was a great one. And I may even vote for Roy Cooper this time around. I don't have much faith in McCrory anymore. He only answers to Duke Energy progress.

Look, I think Hillary is a pretty moderate Democrat, and under most circumstances, I would probably vote for her. But for me, she just hasn't made a good showing in the general so far. She hasn't done anything to make me believe she's in my corner. Plus, I just feel like she's been in Washington too long, and while I don't like career politicians, Trump is not the man to prove me wrong about them.

I'm either going to vote for Johnson or sit this one out. But hey, that will be a vote for Hillary either way, so Shrike should appreciate my form of hackery.

9/8/2016 12:28:52 PM

I wouldn't flatter yourself. Pryderi was just as much a Democrat hack as you are

[Edited on September 8, 2016 at 12:31 PM. Reason : asd]

9/8/2016 12:31:08 PM

I'm posted plenty about what I believe were tactical missteps by Democrats over the years. They very often suck at communicating the value of their policies to the American people and effectively advancing them through our government. However, on the macro level, Democrats have been proven right on just about every single major issue over at last the past couple decades. From tax policy, to the role of government, use of our military, and a litany of social issues, Democrats have not only been on the right side of history, they've just been plain right and Republicans have been wrong. Very very wrong.

9/8/2016 12:42:23 PM

Man, I'd like to debate you all day on tax policy, and maybe sometime we can all get together for lunch and really talk about things - at least those of us still local to the Triangle. But in my mind, their policy on taxation and spending has only left millions still in the poor house. And their only option, to over simplify it, is more taxing and more spending. I don't mind taxing corporations, I don't mind rich people paying their fair share, but you have to ask your self how much is enough? If you had a blank check for taxation, what would it be? Rich people and corporations are always going to get out of tax policies. Poor people don't have enough money to pay taxes, so the middle class, of which I am solidly entrenched, will continue to shoulder the burden of America's less fortunate. How can i possibly pay for my daughter's education when, under Clinton, I'll be pitching in for everyone else's children's college as well?

9/8/2016 12:48:25 PM

Quote :

"I never claimed there was anything hackish about that particular post."

your response was, "and you people call me a hack?"

you literally insinuated he was a hack based off of his post about yours.

9/8/2016 12:50:03 PM

Quote :

"I never claimed there was anything hackish about that particular post"

You fucking pointed at the post and called him a hack! Now after actually reading it, you realize you can't find fault with it and are claiming you weren't saying what you said. Weak!

Quote :

"He just never has anything bad to say about anyone with a D beside their name"

Except he has said the following:

Quote :

"The biggest flaw in her campaign is Hillary herself. She has zero charisma and cannot make a public appearance without appearing fake as hell."

Quote :

"Hillary voted for a war once so she's exactly the same as Jeb Bush"

Quote :

"Bernie's blown a lot of smoke but hasn't proposed anything that will actually work."

Quote :

"Hillary is a crappy candidate, and in a regular campaign, I wouldn't want her to run because she'd probably lose."

Quote :

"I don't like Hillary...She's not a good candidate...I do think running her own personal email server was shady as fuck though."

Quote :

"Obama had TWO WHOLE YEARS with a Democrat controlled congress to FIX EVERYTHING. And he FAILED!!!!!!111"

and I'm sure he can go on from here...

Quote :

"I liked Bill. I wasn't too into politics then, but in retrospect he was a good president."

Quote :

"I've watched every SOTU address since Clinton's first"

Quote :

"how can you people stand there and seriously claim that clinton was responsible for the economic prosperity of the 90's? Jesus Christ y'all ought to be smarter than that."

Quote :

" But for me, she just hasn't made a good showing in the general so far"

lol at you pretending she could talk you off your hack horse

9/8/2016 12:54:44 PM

If I were a hack, wouldn't I be voting for McCrory? Shouldn't I just go in and vote straight ticket? I've never voted straight ticket btw. I'm not gonna vote for Barefoot either. So go ahead and keep calling me a hack because I'm not a fan of Clinton, and I don't like Obama. If those are the standards with which you determine who is a hack, then I guess I am one.

And I'm sitting here willing to debate tax platforms, and you ignore that and just go back to calling me a hack.

9/8/2016 1:04:02 PM

^^Ok, some of that was sarcasm, but I appreciate the effort on my behalf lol

Re tax policy: I got 60+ years worth of GDP growth, employment, and federal debt charts showing the economy performing better under Democrats than Republicans, almost without exception. I can show you the decline of the middle class coinciding almost perfectly with the rise of supply side economics. What do you got?

[Edited on September 8, 2016 at 1:16 PM. Reason : .]

9/8/2016 1:05:17 PM

Quote :

"Democrats have not only been on the right side of history, they've just been plain right and Republicans have been wrong. Very very wrong. "

This guy is calling people hacks

9/8/2016 2:30:57 PM

Quote :

"How can i possibly pay for my daughter's education when, under Clinton, I'll be pitching in for everyone else's children's college as well?"

Duh, by making the elite pay the taxes that they should pay based on how much they earn.

9/8/2016 6:13:10 PM

US House member

Quote :

"GOHMERT: “You don't make fun of people who are impaired, have special needs. And … Hillary Clinton has made clear she is mentally impaired.”"

Big if true.

9/9/2016 10:32:31 AM

9/9/2016 10:43:42 AM