yeah, we just need to win at the md and at bc to get all this jumbled shit straightened out.

^ and yeah, that's good to know atleast.

2/6/2008 10:49:23 AM

Quote :

"We have the talent to have had a strong non-conference season and a 9-7 ACC regular season. Not only did we accomplish neither, we weren't really that close."

Quote by rallydurham AFTER beating VTech last night.

You deserve to be bashed for that stupid fucking quote. Of course we aren't 9-7 you motherfucker, we are 4-4.

2/6/2008 10:52:18 AM

we need for FSU and UVA to win some games

it would be real nice to see UVA get 2 wins this week...i know thats high hopes but someone needs to step up and take out some of the middle of the road teams.

at least some teams that are 3-4 will be playing this week so some of the mess will be sorted out a little bit

2/6/2008 10:53:47 AM

that would be nice, but might be asking a bit much of uva

2/6/2008 10:55:47 AM

to their credit...they just havent closed out games

i think they have lost 3 games in OT....good luck just has avoided them but i hope that turns around

they can beat wake but im sure they will get stomped by Klempson

2/6/2008 10:58:14 AM

usually i agree with rallydurham but his latest analysis is just dumb

2/6/2008 12:11:24 PM

Actually, its quite insightful.

We have a ~30% chance AT BEST to go 8-8 in the ACC and win an ACC tournament game.

That would give us about a 50-60% chance of sneaking into the NCAA tournament.

.3 * .5 = .15

.3* .6 = .18

So we have about a 15-18% chance of making the NCAA tournament and thats being optimistic. That's not a great position to be in.


The most likely scenario is 7-9.

6-10 is unlikely but possible.

9-7 would be an absolute miracle.

[Edited on February 6, 2008 at 4:03 PM. Reason : a]

2/6/2008 4:02:22 PM

If 9-7 is a miracle, what does that make 12-4? I mean hell, if we're gonna ask for a miracle, why not go balls to wall on the mother fucker. 9-7 is for fucking chumps anyway.

2/6/2008 4:10:20 PM

quick FYI

We are currently 15-7, 4-4 in conference

Last year on February 8, we were 13-9, 3-6 in conference

We didn't get our 15th win last year until February 28th against Wake (2nd to last regular conference game of year)

ps: rallydurham pulls his probabilities directly from his ass

2/8/2008 11:39:32 AM

i love it when people make up numbers

then act like those numbers are facts

2/8/2008 11:44:56 AM

rallydurham is a false idol

2/8/2008 11:46:17 AM

Quote :

"quick FYI We are currently 15-7, 4-4 in conference Last year on February 8, we were 13-9, 3-6 in conference We didn't get our 15th win last year until February 28th against Wake (2nd to last regular conference game of year) "

How is that of any relevance to this thread? We've marginally improved when our Big 3 Top 100 recruits matured another year and we had a Top 10 freshman C come in to the program.

We weren't close to a NCAA Tourney team last year but for a miracle run through the ACCT and we are borderline, at best, right now...

Personally, I think 8-8 and an ACCT win might get us in but it will be close and depends on how the rest of the ACC does. I can't imagine the ACC not getting 5 bids this year and 4 & 5 are up for grabs..

[Edited on February 8, 2008 at 12:06 PM. Reason : x]

2/8/2008 12:04:44 PM

this season is all sorts of disappointing.

2/8/2008 1:03:35 PM

Duke and UNC are locks....Clemson is unless they really stumble. Maryland is looking good for a 4th bid.

NCSU, VT, Wake are battling for the 5th bid IMO. IF there even is a 5th bid for the ACC.

GT, BC, FSU, Miami, UVA have little chance at this point.

2/8/2008 1:07:07 PM

Quote :

"How is that of any relevance to this thread?"

i'm obviously putting things in perspective for people who are calling for Sid's head by informing them we're doing better than we were last year

now take your trolling bullshit somewhere else Tarheel fan

2/8/2008 2:13:11 PM

Look at the games remaining. 9-7 is possible, 8-8 likely, 7-9 or worse if the team falls apart. 9-7 or 8-8 is a lock for ncaa play (playing unc, duke, and clemson twice each has to count for something). 7-9 requires at least 1 win. anything else would mean they'd need to win the tournament to get in.


/obvious

2/8/2008 2:50:10 PM

To everyone saying this year is such a disappointment:

A) it's not over yet. Just because you can predict that we'll likely be 8-8 doesn't mean shit. Also, just because the media predicted us #3 in the conference doesn't mean a 4th or 5th place finish and an NCAA berth this year would be a disappointment.

In your analysis of whether or not we'll be dancing, you're forgetting a HUGE factor: RPI. It's going to change, especially if we lose a few (depending on who we lose to), but our SOS is going to help us a lot.

We're currently #37 in the RPI and have played the 27th toughest schedule in America. If the season ended today, we'd be dancing for sure. No ACC team has ever been left out of the tournament with a 40 RPI or better.

2/8/2008 3:43:35 PM

so far it definitely has been a disappointment. but that was mostly due to our own overly lofty expectations. i do think the season won't end as much of a disappointment though. i see a team that has improved steadily over the course of the season and is still improving, just in time to peak in march. i see us making the tourney. and i always did. i did have doubts for sure, but they never outweighed my trust in sid. i knew he'd turn it around!

plz to not jinx

2/8/2008 3:51:27 PM

it's been a disappointment b/c returning players (read: mccauley and costner) are not playing nearly as well as they were last year. that is all. not the record, not whether or not we'll be dancing, not if we're ranked, but just the fact that we look like shit compared to last year. that is what is disappointing.

2/8/2008 3:56:58 PM

I agree with that much....but some people are just jumping off the fucking cliff...and early on it did look bad, but this is a much improved team...and it's still only halfway through the ACC.

So far, disappointing. Potentially a decent and maybe even successful year by the end though, and people aren't realizing that.

2/8/2008 4:06:10 PM

Quote :

"now take your trolling bullshit somewhere else Tarheel fan"

Did I troll you? Am I a Tar Heel fan?

I don't want Sidney fired but you posted something showing minimal progress despite a more talented team. Not exactly relevant to your point... but hey, maybe I'm just not thinking "logically" like you are.

2/8/2008 4:15:31 PM

Seriously, saying "we're doing better than last year" is pretty stupid. We got rid of Herb because we were a perennial bubble team and couldn't beat our local rivals. Sid took care of half of that last year, but is failing at both this year.

That's what he should be measured against. Don't misconstrue what I'm saying either, I still like Sid, I just think that the jury is still out on him and we haven't seen enough to hand him the keys to the castle yet.

2/8/2008 4:21:57 PM

i'd be pissed if we went worse than 11-5 in the acc

we'll prolly lose tomorrow, but we'll cruise the rest of the season

clemson, carolina and duke all at home, come on, we'll blow them out

don't fuck with state at the rbc (see wake, va tech, miami) (don't see ga. tech, or new orleans, they were flukes, we didnt feel like winning those)

2/8/2008 4:30:06 PM

rallydurham shows signs of depression.

i recommend one of the following

Zoloft,Lexapro,Prozac,Wellbutrin, Zyban,Paxil,Effexor



remember, this thread was created on whim because of a fucking lucky banked 3 pointer at the buzzard.

keep this piece of shit thread in its proper reference.

2/8/2008 4:31:59 PM

it's not like we've played great basketball since then.

2/8/2008 4:32:46 PM

Quote :

"this thread was created on whim because of a fucking lucky banked 3 pointer at the buzzard"

2/8/2008 4:33:52 PM

buzzard, huh?

2/8/2008 5:02:24 PM

eets woody woodpecker! and bugs buzzard

2/8/2008 6:06:24 PM

Shrike, while I agree that we wanted Herb gone was because he couldn't consistently beat UNC/Duke do you really expect us to have a real chance at beating them this year when they are #3/#4 team in the nation? We have a FRESHMAN point guard and a FRESHMAN McDonald's all american. How many McDonald's all-americans do Duke and UNC have? This is Sid's 2nd year so how about shutting the fuck up. If anything we are over-achieving at 4-4 ACC record IMO.

SID NEEDS MORE TIME!

I'll edit and say we aren't OVER-achieving, I'd like to rephrase and say we are par for the course

[Edited on February 8, 2008 at 7:00 PM. Reason : bitch ]

2/8/2008 6:59:15 PM

How are you going to lecture me on the RPI when you don't even understand what comprises the formula?

Quote :

"depending on who we lose to"

That is irrelevant to the formula.

2/8/2008 8:50:34 PM

^ hey rally I'd be very interested in your response to my response to shrike directly above you... you pessimist sack of turds.

2/8/2008 9:12:02 PM

How about you address the second half of my criteria first, the fact that we are headed for the NIT for a second year in a row.

2/8/2008 9:29:16 PM

2/8/2008 9:31:37 PM

Quote :

"How about you address the second half of my criteria first, the fact that we are headed for the NIT for a second year in a row."

I'll address it, we shouldn't have lost to New Orleans and ECU and we'd probably be fine, and Sidney will learn a valuable lesson from this hopefully, and hopefully he will have his guys ready to play these shit teams next year. Hopefully he learns how important EVERY game is. I think he will.

2/8/2008 9:36:46 PM

I'm officially not worried anymore. Doug Gottlieb had us as one of the "first four out" on college gameday yesterday. We are SURE to make the tourney now.

That prick has absolutely no idea what he's talking about. And he looks like a rat.

2/9/2008 11:36:16 AM

Rat

2/9/2008 11:56:45 AM

Quote :

"9-7 or 8-8 is a lock for ncaa play"

I don't think 8-8 in the ACC is a lock this year and in the past it hasn't always been a lock either, The ACC is just weak this year and I think 4 teams is all we are going to get unless some team like State or VT goes on an impressive winning streak.

We still haven't beaten a team that is a lock for the tourney and it is possible that we end the season without beating any teams (at least major conference teams) that make the tourney. Our most impressive resume builder is that we won the Old Spice Classic that in retrospect included basically one good team (K-State) that was sucking at the time of that tournament.

Plus the Big Least is looking better and better each week to put in a shitload of teams. The separation between the top 7 or so and the rest of the teams in the Big East is getting wider which hurts the ACC.



[Edited on February 9, 2008 at 12:05 PM. Reason : df]

2/9/2008 12:03:54 PM

8-8 is only a lock if Duke is 8-8

see last years "awesome" duke team.

2/9/2008 12:11:32 PM

Quote :

"The ACC is just weak this year"

Every team has a winning record still. Show me another conference that can say that.

I think with 2 top 5 teams we get at least 5 bids.

2/9/2008 2:02:02 PM

I vote to have all 12 ACC teams in the dance.

2/9/2008 2:17:23 PM

9-7 with an ACC tourney win is a lock for sure. But I mean damn you probably couldn't find someone to take that bet at 8:1 odds.

8-8 with a tourney win plants us squarely on the bubble with a lean towards getting in.

Lets look at our remaining schedule though:

Heavy Underdogs: (0-2)

vs Duke
vs UNC

Underdogs: (likely 1-2, maybe 0-3)
vs Clemson
@Maryland
@BC

toss-ups (likely 2-1, maybe 3-0)
@WF
@UVA
Vs FSU



If we play at our current level what are the chances of us going 4-4 in an eight game stretch in which we are best case slight favorites in THREE of those games, heavy underdogs in two, and ~5-8 point underdogs in the remaining three.....

And even if we pull that off we play a tourney game that'd we'd have ~70% of winning.

We are going to have to improve dramatically and nothing thus far has shown we're ready to do that.





[Edited on February 9, 2008 at 3:00 PM. Reason : a]

2/9/2008 2:51:29 PM

A win tonight could really put this thread on the down low.....PLZ TO WIN!

Quote :

"We still haven't beaten a team that is a lock for the tourney and it is possible that we end the season without beating any teams (at least major conference teams) that make the tourney."

Davidson will make it, they are undefeated in conference and should win their tourney, but I know what you were getting at. Nova has screwed us by going to shit. Seton Hall MIGHT make it.

2/9/2008 3:16:28 PM

Admittedly, this would be a HUGE win.

A win on the road against Maryland would temporarily move us into the field of 64 and have us on pace to finish 8-8.


Before you get too excited though you should realize we're more than 3:1 underdogs.

This would be a huge upset.

2/9/2008 3:30:36 PM

Rally, if you want anyone to take you seriously you're going to have to start linking to your sources for all of these numbers.

Quote :

"Plus the Big Least is looking better and better each week to put in a shitload of teams. The separation between the top 7 or so and the rest of the teams in the Big East is getting wider which hurts the ACC."

It would be hilarious if Georgia Tech spanks UConn today

[Edited on February 9, 2008 at 3:37 PM. Reason : .]

2/9/2008 3:35:14 PM

rallydurham is serious business.

2/9/2008 3:36:05 PM

What are you talking about?

Maryland is 8 to 8.5 point favorites tonight and NC State is +320.

That's public information.


We are going to be double digit underdogs to UNC & Duke. I don't need a source for that, thats just basic knowledge.

2/9/2008 3:46:27 PM

^ thats what i'm talking about. If its public knowledge then most likely there is a website where you obtained said knowledge....do share.

and I want to know how/where you found this one too...

Quote :

"We have a ~30% chance AT BEST to go 8-8 in the ACC and win an ACC tournament game."

2/9/2008 3:52:35 PM

Quote :

"We are going to have to improve dramatically and nothing thus far has shown we're ready to do that."

through 8 games in the ACC we are the best 3pt shooting team in the league. Stop being a fucking downer, at least at this point for fuck sake.

if you haven't realized it by now you are pissing people off with all your pessimistic speculation. I bet your sorry ass is hoping we lose to Maryland tonight.

[Edited on February 9, 2008 at 3:59 PM. Reason : .]

2/9/2008 3:56:45 PM

Quote :

"^ thats what i'm talking about. If its public knowledge then most likely there is a website where you obtained said knowledge....do share."

There are dozens of sportsbooks out there. Go look one up. We are 8 point dogs tonight pretty much everywhere.

2/9/2008 3:59:05 PM

Jesus christ just go to any gambling site on the internet.

http://www.scoresandodds.com will even work.


Probabilities are wasted on the majority of people who went to NC State so I'm not sure why I even bother with this stuff.

What are the chances of us winning all three of the "toss up" games?

Let's estimate we are 70% favorites (~4 point favorites) since we are dealing with BEST CASE scenario here even though most of those games will be ~2 points or less and we may be underdogs in some of them.

.7*.7*.7 = .343 (3-0)

.7*.7*.3 * 3 = .441 (2-1)

.7*.3*.3 * 3 = .189 (1-2)

.3 * .3 *.3 = .027 (0-3)



Now lets head to the Underdogs category.

I'll place us at an average of 30% to win these games for simplicity.

0-3 = .343

1-2 = .441

2-1 = .189

3-0 = .027


In the other two games I'll place us as 12% to win (thats generous compared to the odds)

So we have a 1 - (.88*.88) or 23% chance to even win one of those two games, which is mitigated further by the fact we are NC State and will probably be embarrassed.


That's a start. Okay, I'm busy now I have to go.

2/9/2008 4:07:38 PM