Quote :

"76% of Cruz's support came from "rabid right-wing Christians." So, not all of his votes. Just the vast majority of them."

I think you ^^ also have to consider with all your math the larger percentage of the electorate in Iowa of evangelical caucus/primary voters vs NH and NV. I don't have the percentages, but it seems reasonable to say 76% of his Iowa voters were evangelical/very conservative bc they're a higher percentage than other states. I do still agree, however, that he is going to have to perform well somewhere other than Iowa before the MSM and GOP leaders begin to take his campaign seriously. He isn't Santorum or Huck though, he has more money and organization than both had after they won Iowa, plus he's just plain more handsome.

The debate this weekend should provide for some real contrast between the candidates. Christie has already signaled he's going after the boy in the bubble hard, I would imagine Trump is planning the same given how close Rubio came to beating him in Iowa. I'm hoping the moderators keep it focused on substance with Trump back in the debate, always a challenge.

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 6:52 AM. Reason : ...]

2/3/2016 6:51:57 AM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/rand-paul-dropping-out-of-presidential-race/index.html

Another Gilmore opponent drops out

2/3/2016 9:27:11 AM

^^ You are a politics expert!

2/3/2016 10:49:59 AM

Quote :

"Jeb Bush to Audience: 'Please Clap'"

http://theslot.jezebel.com/jeb-bush-to-audience-please-clap-1756824155

2/3/2016 12:28:43 PM

He thought he was at a trump rally maybe...

2/3/2016 1:01:19 PM

So cruz sent something to Carson voters telling them to vote from Cruz because Carson was dropping out?

2/3/2016 2:20:01 PM

No. Cruz's campaign staff sent out a CNN report that Carson was heading to FL after Iowa without then sending out the subsequent correction from CNN that Carson wasn't withdrawing - he just needed a change of clothes. A member of Rubio's team retweeted the story also before deleting the tweet. Donald Trump wants you to discuss this non-story all week so the focus is back on him and not Cruz's epic victory in Iowa.

Screen shot below of the CNN tweet:

https://twitter.com/JamesBham/status/694988044546523136

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 4:10 PM. Reason : ...]

2/3/2016 4:01:00 PM

Quote :

"No. Cruz's campaign staff sent out a CNN report that Carson was heading to FL after Iowa without then sending out the subsequent correction from CNN that Carson wasn't withdrawing - he just needed a change of clothes."

Technically Cruz's top campaign staff embellished on the report that Carson was [strangely] going to Florida by communicating to their precinct captains that he was dropping out...and once they discovered that wasn't true, they didn't retract or correct the communication.

Quote :

"Twenty minutes after the caucuses began in Iowa, Rep. Steve King, the Cruz campaign's national co-chair, retweeted CNN's Chris Moody about Carson's break from the campaign trail before New Hampshire's primary. "Carson looks like he is out. Iowans need to know before they vote. Most will go to Cruz, I hope," King tweeted. In another tweet, the congressman said Carson's next steps were "equivalent of suspending.""

Quote :

"Cruz Iowa staffer Spence Rogers also suggested in an email to precinct captains that Carson may be announcing the end of his campaign next week. "Breaking News. The press is reporting that Dr. Ben Carson is taking time off from the campaign trail after Iowa and making a big announcement next week," the email read. "Please inform any Carson caucus goers of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted Cruz.""

2/3/2016 4:23:57 PM

Cruz apologized for lying about Carson. This was definitely a calculated shady tactic.

2/3/2016 5:01:11 PM

With all the anti-Cruz forces out there, you think someone would have produced a single person to claim I was going to caucus for Carson BUT DIDN'T solely bc I relied on this last minute misinformation from a Cruz supporter at my precinct.

2/3/2016 5:15:55 PM

Quote :

"I don't have the percentages, but it seems reasonable to say 76% of his Iowa voters were evangelical/very conservative bc they're a higher percentage than other states."

This is wrong. There is no broad support hiding behind Cruz's evangelical voters.

Cruz won 33% of evangelical voters, compared to 21% for Trump and 21% for Rubio.
Cruz won 19% of non-evangelical voters, compared to 29% for Trump and 26% for Rubio.
Cruz won 44% of very conservative voters, compared to 21% for Trump and 15% for Rubio.
Cruz won 19% of somewhat conservative voters, compared to 24% for Trump and 29% for Rubio.
Cruz won 9% of moderate voters, compared to 34% for Trump and 28% for Rubio.
Cruz won 38% of values voters, compared to 5% for Trump and 21% for Rubio.
Cruz won 22% of the my-candidate-can-win voters, compared to 24% for Trump and 44% for Rubio.

Cruz has very conservative evangelicals and that's it.

It's hard to see how Cruz will appeal to the moderate and mildly conservative voters he needs to win the nomination. I think Trump staying in the election is Cruz's best bet.

2/3/2016 7:14:03 PM

Just curious what you think is the difference btwn a "moderate" and a "mild" conservative and whatever you deem Sen. Cruz to be? I understand varying degrees of "conservatism" but what exactly do the non-conservatives on this board think are the Cruz positions that turn off the mild and moderate wing?

2/3/2016 7:32:20 PM

To be fair I have a feeling "cruz supporters" are not the types of people up to date on social media or frequently check their twitter feeds.

2/3/2016 8:18:34 PM

^^ ummm, pretty much all of them? Cruz is an extreme conservative.

^ the hell they don't; they're many of the ones constantly blowing up Facebook feeds with an endless stream of horseshit that belongs in a chain email your parents would forward.

2/3/2016 9:23:37 PM

"Pretty much all of them..." is not very helpful. I am genuinely interested in people's perceptions about candidates, specifically Sen. Cruz since he is my preferred candidate. What policy positions does Cruz espouse that Rubio/Christie et al don't that would turn off the so-called mild and moderate conservatives?

For more on the esteemed Sen. Cruz - see The Field Guide to Sen. Cruz below:

http://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/the-top-10-things-you-need-to-know-about-ted-cruz/

2/4/2016 6:50:21 AM

Hmmm



1. Let's see he does not seem to get along with any of his peers in government. Part of the job of president is being a leader, being able compromise, and the ability to play well with others. All things Cruz seems to fail at. As president he'll have to work with congress republicans and democrats. We know how he feels about the -D's and most of the -R's detest Cruz and not a single senator has endorsed him for president.

2. He was born in Canada to a Cuban Father I'm guessing the whole birther crowd that was outraged with Obama is going to secretly retreat from the whole Obama is a muslim terrorist born in Kenya charade.

3. His social policies aim to turn this country into Jesus Bible land. While I agree with some of his economic policies, his social agenda strongly overrides any consideration. This is especially true since the current democrat presidents policies haven't exactly "destroyed" the economy as hard-core republicans always babble about.

4. He opposes net neutrality which just tells me he in bed with not just Big Oil but also Big Telecom.

5. He is against any sort of pro-environmental policy. Kudos for Texas for having a good economy. I don't want my state to turn into a shit hole as we drill-baby-drill and cut down every tree that is good for big business. We also need a president who will take smart steps to reduce the US contribution to climate change.

6. He voted for and supports the USA "Freedom" Act which renews the "Patriot" Act. Basically laws that is the exact antithesis of Freedom and American Patriotism and paves the road for a totalitarian government. Although perhaps Cruz intends to make himself the Fuhrer and bring good christian law to the nation.

Cruz should make this his parties campaign poster:


BTW from your article

Quote :

"Cruz is smarter than us."

He may be smarter than you......

Quote :

"Cruz is really into the Constitution"

What a joke, the constitution wasn't mean to instill Christian law onto the land nor was it made so Czar Cruz could dictate to the land his will, since this is the only way he would be able to get anything done since he doesn't seem to be able to work with congress even while in the senate!
[Edited on February 4, 2016 at 11:10 AM. Reason : a]

[Edited on February 4, 2016 at 11:14 AM. Reason : a]

2/4/2016 11:10:03 AM

He's definitely crazily smart. He has a lot of brain power, according to his professor in Harvard.

2/4/2016 11:11:43 AM

hey, i'm a moderate democrat who isn't opposed to voting for a republican in Nov. Rubio seems like the eventual nominee. I've read up (on his site) on his platform and most of it seems pretty reasonable.

For seasoned conservatives, guys/gals that have followed him for a while, how serious is his social issue stuff? Is he using his anti-abortion/anti-gay marriage rhetoric as a wedge issue to try and draw in some evangelicals/social conservatives or is he going to really go after that type of stuff if elected?

Thanks

2/4/2016 11:34:56 AM

hey, i'm a moderate democrat who isn't opposed to voting for a republican in Nov. Rubio seems like the eventual nominee. I've read up (on his site) on his platform and most of it seems pretty reasonable.

For seasoned conservatives, guys/gals that have followed him for a while, how serious is his social issue stuff? Is he using his anti-abortion/anti-gay marriage rhetoric as a wedge issue to try and draw in some evangelicals/social conservatives or is he going to really go after that type of stuff if elected?

Thanks

2/4/2016 11:34:56 AM

hey, i'm a moderate democrat who isn't opposed to voting for a republican in Nov. Rubio seems like the eventual nominee. I've read up (on his site) on his platform and most of it seems pretty reasonable.

For seasoned conservatives, guys/gals that have followed him for a while, how serious is his social issue stuff? Is he using his anti-abortion/anti-gay marriage rhetoric as a wedge issue to try and draw in some evangelicals/social conservatives or is he going to really go after that type of stuff if elected?

Thanks

2/4/2016 11:34:56 AM

hey, i'm a moderate democrat who isn't opposed to voting for a republican in Nov. Rubio seems like the eventual nominee. I've read up (on his site) on his platform and most of it seems pretty reasonable.

For seasoned conservatives, guys/gals that have followed him for a while, how serious is his social issue stuff? Is he using his anti-abortion/anti-gay marriage rhetoric as a wedge issue to try and draw in some evangelicals/social conservatives or is he going to really go after that type of stuff if elected?

Thanks

[Edited on February 4, 2016 at 11:35 AM. Reason : don't know why it double posted, sorry]

2/4/2016 11:34:56 AM

quadruple, not double.

2/4/2016 12:03:01 PM

Quote :

"hey, i'm a moderate democrat..Rubio...seems pretty reasonable. "

You're kidding right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio#Political_positions

2/4/2016 12:04:27 PM

as opposed to uncle bernie, yeah i'm serious

2/4/2016 12:09:36 PM

I will not vote Republican until they send the crazy Christian Evangelical crowd back into the incest-breeding barn where they deserve to be.

2/4/2016 12:17:15 PM

^^ Odds are pretty low on Bernie, but how can you identify as a Democrat and call those positions "reasonable?"

I realize he comes off as a fucking rock star of a moderation/establishment on stage with those crazies, but his positions, outside of maybe immigration, are extremely conservative.

[Edited on February 4, 2016 at 12:23 PM. Reason : You must not have clicked that link]

2/4/2016 12:21:16 PM

I'm waiting to see how a "conservative" president is going to handle legal recreation marijuana. I do respect that Cruz, although i'm sure he could back-track to stick to his "Christian" principals, acknowledges that while opposed he does expect states rights on this issue.

Rubio and several other candidates have outwardly spoken that they will enforce drug laws against rouge states allows illicit drug use.

2/4/2016 12:32:18 PM

Quote :

"Rubio supports continued criminal penalties for recreational cannabis use. In January 2014, Rubio said: "I don't think legalizing marijuana or even decriminalizing it is the right decision for our country."[178] In a May 2014 interview, Rubio said that he believed that there is "no responsible way to recreationally use" marijuana and that legalization of the substance would be "bad for the country."[179] Rubio has said that he only supports the use of medical cannabis if it is the noneuphoric type (such as "Charlotte's web") approved by the Florida Legislature.[178] Regarding the legalization of drugs in general, Rubio has stated, "I personally believe that legalizing drugs would be a great mistake and that any reductions in sentences for drug crimes should be made with great care."[180]"

2/4/2016 12:35:59 PM

ha there's video: http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/please-clap-jeb-bush-begs-crowd-to-applaud-after-speech-is-met-with-total-silence/

2/4/2016 2:04:25 PM

Quote :

"Given the choices of just Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz who would you support for the Republican nomination for President? Donald Trump.................................................33% Marco Rubio...................................................34% Ted Cruz.........................................................25% Not sure..........................................................7%"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

2/4/2016 5:55:39 PM

It will be interesting to see how this narrative holds after NH

2/4/2016 6:14:04 PM

Which narrative is 'this' narrative?

2/4/2016 8:16:53 PM

That Rubio seems to be the favorite followed by Cruz and then Trump. It only took Rubio outperforming his polls to essentially jump into the drivers seat even though Cruz won Iowa. I think it's pretty sound and was expecting exactly what we are seeing now but it's also way too early to tell. If Trump comes in third in NH I can't see him standing any chance and he will likely completely go off the rails.

2/4/2016 8:26:43 PM

Quote :

"I realize he comes off as a fucking rock star of a moderation/establishment on stage with those crazies, but his positions, outside of maybe immigration, are extremely conservative."

Exactly, and he's been tacking right pretty far on immigration for a while now, too.

I want to like him; I would like to re-enter the GOP fold and have candidates to vote for, but I can't vote for him even through gritted teeth.

I don't think he's a clownshow like everyone else running (other than Kasich)-I just can't square his politics with mine enough to vote for him (and I'd probably settle for 51%. Hell, probably 50.)

2/4/2016 9:01:47 PM

dude is anti-choice in cases of rape and incest

absolutely indefensible

2/5/2016 12:34:54 AM

duh it was God's plan for you to be raped... the lord has his reasons and this kid could be the next president or invent the cure for cancer
AM I RITE

2/5/2016 1:45:50 AM

Why is Chris Christie still in the debate and campaign trail? Is he really that stupid to think that he may somehow finagle to win the nomination? He's losing support in NJ as governor and probably won't get re-elected.

Is this some sort of ego boasting dick swinging thing or is using this as leverage for something....

2/5/2016 11:50:22 AM

not that any of this will be surprising - http://theslot.jezebel.com/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-and-track-down-a-ted-cr-1752337625

2/5/2016 1:34:53 PM

^^ IMO, bc he's done more events in NH than anyone but Kasich so he's hoping to come out on top of the other governors - Bush and Kasich - and continue on after they drop out. It's not ego to think the voters may prefer a governor as the nominee over two senators and a real estate mogul with no governing experience - odds are definitely in his favor historically speaking. A lot can happen between NH and the convention, but Bush is the only one with enough money to keep going after NH without placing in the top 3 or 4.

2/5/2016 3:25:47 PM

They are counting on the idea that trump and cruz are inelectable and rubio is easy to beat.

Quote :

"I don't think enough people are going to drop out of the race in time for Trump to lose. Does anyone see cruz or rubio getting out? People like Kasich and Bush still think they can win at this point and will take a huge chunk of delegates. Fiorina and Carson are still taking up some of the vote. The establisment needs to consolidate asap."

[Edited on February 5, 2016 at 5:13 PM. Reason : i posted that in the wrong thread]

2/5/2016 5:12:54 PM

Quote :

"dude is anti-choice in cases of rape and incest absolutely indefensible"

I'm kind of a centrist on abortion; I'm fine with very early term abortions regardless of the reason. On the other hand, if it's a human being, it's not OK to kill it regardless of the circumstances of conception. That really shouldn't be a driving factor for or against abortion, or at least not much of one. The bottom line is at what point we consider a fetus to not just be alive (an amoeba is alive), or genetically human (a zygote is that), but a human being. I think there's no case to be made that the line isn't well before birth. I don't think it's at conception, either.

I also don't give a shit about heartbeats, etc, per se. Having a heartbeat isn't what makes you a human being, or for that matter, alive.

2/5/2016 7:07:41 PM

When Phyllis Schafly turns on you, she turns hard. This is why we need oxford or Lincoln/Douglas style debating, with limited moderator participation, not this who's best at reciting talking points garbage that passes as debate. I think it may be a tough night for Sen. Rubio. Full disclosure, I'm in the tank for Sen. Cruz.

http://www.eagleforum.org/immigration/rubio-record.html

2/6/2016 9:15:53 AM

Quote :

"Full disclosure, I'm in the tank for Sen. Cruz."

hahaha lol

2/6/2016 11:10:48 AM

http://gawker.com/heres-a-tape-of-the-ted-cruz-campaign-lying-to-iowa-vot-1757519381

Quote :

"Full disclosure, I'm in the tank for Sen. Cruz."

Like anyone here thought otherwise

2/6/2016 2:57:35 PM

^ that's not illegal though is it? Seems like politics as usual...

2/6/2016 4:11:15 PM

Quote :

"I'm kind of a centrist on abortion; I'm fine with very early term abortions regardless of the reason. On the other hand, if it's a human being, it's not OK to kill it regardless of the circumstances of conception. That really shouldn't be a driving factor for or against abortion, or at least not much of one. The bottom line is at what point we consider a fetus to not just be alive (an amoeba is alive), or genetically human (a zygote is that), but a human being. I think there's no case to be made that the line isn't well before birth. I don't think it's at conception, either."

This is actually a pretty good point. What difference does it make if it was conceived through rape, incest, or normal, consensual sex? Either the woman has the right to terminate the pregnancy at that point or she doesn't.

2/6/2016 4:32:59 PM

^ it makes a pretty big difference to the woman who was, you know, raped. Actually, she should probably be the only one making that call, since she was raped and it's her body.

2/6/2016 7:36:40 PM

LOL this debate. Rubio repeated his same bullshit a 3rd time after christie called him out on it.

2/6/2016 8:36:20 PM

Nearly everything that dude says is scripted.

I was kinda impressed until I realized that fact.

[Edited on February 6, 2016 at 8:57 PM. Reason : ^^ I know right? This idiot is in here with his "what difference does it make? [To me]." FOH mane]

2/6/2016 8:54:04 PM

Quote :

"Having a heartbeat isn't what makes you a human being"

Well then what does? Perhaps I missed it, but I didn't see you define a time/event where you would close the door on legal abortions.

2/6/2016 9:05:46 PM