FAS stuck at 7.50 while the rest of the market has moved to catch up. Kinda weird. I'm not really sure what that says, I would tend to think it's a bearish signal, especially going into the 3 day weekend, but I don't really know wtf I'm talking about.

4/9/2009 10:16:58 AM

i wish faz had the same volume as fas

4/9/2009 10:25:36 AM

Why? It nearly does on a volume basis. You're talking about $875 million versus about $550 million right now. 40 million shares traded in a little over an hour is more than enough volume.

Bought 200 shares of SRS in my IRA at 38.90. Been reading way too much about the trouble coming in commercial real estate and falling rents and vacancies for SRS not to move back up at least modestly in the next month or so.

[Edited on April 9, 2009 at 10:57 AM. Reason : .]

4/9/2009 10:56:43 AM

volume is a trend indicator -- the fact that FAZ volume is steadily contracting points to an end to the bear [atleast in the near term


...also, be thinking about this - the consumer is not spending as much [even the employed ones], thus bank deposits are increasing. that naturally thaws the lending freeze. there is a difference between "capital" and "deposits", and the mortal sin by banks has been to blur that line.

all in all, i think absolute financial meltdown has been avoided, and while that by itself isn't bullish, it most certainly makes the pro-bearish trades damn difficult.




[Edited on April 9, 2009 at 11:09 AM. Reason : also]

4/9/2009 11:03:21 AM

Eh? FAS volume has been declining as well at nearly the same rate as FAZ.

4/9/2009 11:07:56 AM

^ perhaps that is pointing to a decline in over volatility, and any retracement of recent gains/move toward lows from before this rally will be a low volume one...

4/9/2009 11:11:33 AM

will look to get out of EDC near 60 and wait for pullback...

4/9/2009 1:17:39 PM

out of FAS @ 8.02


might re-enter if we get a last hour selloff

[Edited on April 9, 2009 at 3:06 PM. Reason : oh snap triple post]

4/9/2009 3:05:42 PM

This market is just fucking stupid. I knew I should have set some stops before I left.

4/9/2009 3:23:46 PM

damn, BAC up $2.29 today!

4/9/2009 3:32:17 PM

holy crap FAS

4/9/2009 4:00:00 PM

i sold calls a while ago expecting it not to climb any higher.

shit.

4/9/2009 4:03:36 PM

you're telling me.... got out way to early today on that one...

4/9/2009 4:03:48 PM

Quote :

"On days like this in the past it seems like we have a steady up day throughout the day."

I'm always blown away by days like today where the market just moves slowly and steadily up all day long. And to think I was looking at FAS premarket at 6.35 and again when it took a small breather at 7.25.

4/9/2009 4:37:12 PM

any thoughts on what FAS will do after hours? like a dumbass, i didn't make it back to a computer until just after close. hopefully it holds fairly steady so i can dump it first thing without kicking myself.

4/9/2009 4:55:53 PM

You can't trade in after hours trading?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/22137

Quote :

"For some very interesting statistics on the S&P 500 and holiday rallies, check out this buzz today, by Professor Jason Goepfert. “There were 6 times the S&P gained more than +2.5% the day before a holiday. Over the next week, it showed positive returns only once (and that one gave back all of its gains during the next week). The overall average return was -2.1%, with the average drawdown (-3.6%) more than tripling the average maximum gain (+1.3%). “If we drop the parameter a bit and look for pre-holiday gains of +2% or more, then we get 11 occurrences. The next week showed positive returns only 3 times, with an average of -1.2%. The last 7 of them, dating back to 1999, were all negative over the next week. “The closer we get to 860ish, the more inclined I am to have short exposure.” I'm not trying to be an uber-bear; I'm just pointing out that risk lies ahead."

4/9/2009 6:17:47 PM

With certain ETF's and the like, why do they have different ETF's for the same sector. I see a lot of people dealing with financials in this thread, why not just have one etf, the FAS, if you're bullish, buy it, if you're bearish, short it. Seems confusing initially to buy (inherently bullish) the FAZ which is essentially shorting the FAS? Does it have to do with having a margin account for shorting as opposed to buying the FAZ with whatever liquid money you have should you be bearish? And are the FAS and FAZ perfectly inverted?

4/9/2009 6:55:27 PM

Different corporations offer the ETFs, Proshares has been around the longest as far as the popular ETFs go, of which UYG is their 2x tracking the Dow Jones Fin Services Index. They also have 1x funds (which is what all ETfs were until people got clever). Then Direxion jumped in the game with 3x funds (which FAS/FAZ are). They all track some particular index. FAS tracks the Russell 1000 Financial Services, RIFIN.X on google finance, at 3x with FAZ tracking it at -3x.

I don't know enough about them to understand how the offerers of ETFs profit, but I imagine it's a pretty penny.

4/9/2009 7:14:04 PM

^^^i could be missing something, but i don't think so. at least not with my basic sharebuilder account. i can place an order, but it won't actually process until market open on the following business day.

4/9/2009 7:56:48 PM

^ Yeah, I guess not all ebrokers allow it. It's come in handy once or twice for me. I think you'll be ok over the weekend. The Fed is actively engaged with Wall Street to cook the books and produce a rosy picture so I wouldn't expect any shocking news to come out this weekend.

4/9/2009 9:32:15 PM

yeah, and plus being a holiday weekend i'm hoping that will keep it quiet too.

lets speculate about FAZ for the upcoming week. snatch up as much as possible at open with the thought of todays rally can't get any better? wait and see if it might drop below the 52 week number again or lower before grabbing it? or, don't do anything because FAS still has some legs? personally, i'm of the opinion it's a no brainer to buy in big, it's just a question of when. could require sitting on it for a day or two with not much action, but i think it'll post huge gains at least one day next week.

4/10/2009 2:24:17 AM

Like I said, shenanigans will be in full effect this earnings season for the banks

http://www.housingwire.com/2009/04/09/credit-cost-smoke-at-mirrors-at-wells-fargo/

4/10/2009 9:24:26 AM

Been doing some reading today and I think I am very comfortable with my FAZ and SRS positions (at about 12 and 35 respectively).

4/10/2009 4:51:59 PM

wait. we are in full out RALLY mode regardless of where you think the market is ultimately headed. right now, it wants to go higher. clearly, wall street, the government, et al. are doing everything in their power to paint a rosy picture and push stocks up for the time being. do not fight it - you would be stepping in front of a train. don't try to time the top, just like you shouldn't try to time the bottom...you will lose. wait for some pessimism to sink in and for some downward momentum. believe me, there will be plenty of "downside" to go around.

4/10/2009 5:25:48 PM

Eh, I don't see a ton of difference in catching it at 12 on the way down versus catching it at 12 on the way up. Sure, it's better to not fight the trend, but the snap backs are vicious and it's pretty easy to miss them.

Look at March 5 for FAS. It closed 30% lower that day after quite a few down days in a row. If you would have said don't fight the trend, there is a really good chance you missed the snap back on the 10th, or maybe you thought that the rally was finally in and you got it at 3.25-3.50. Maybe you even waited a couple days for a solid confirmation that the rally was on. Well, you missed quite a bit of the run if you did this.

Look at the volume for FAS over the past month, it is a steady downtrend since the 25th, this is not good news for the bulls. WFC set the bar really high on the financials, it would take all of them reporting those type of earnings to really ratchet the S&P. It's possible, but the rest of the sectors reporting dismal earnings and a chance to really dig into each banks statements will reveal just how bad off the economy is.

Having said all that, I have shown a really good ability to get the trend correct but the timing really wrong, piling up small losses as stops get triggered over and over trying to find it.

4/10/2009 6:38:43 PM

Quote :

"Eh, I don't see a ton of difference in catching it at 12 on the way down versus catching it at 12 on the way up"

If you don't understand the difference then you have no business trading levered investments. There's a huge difference to your bottom line. The leverage is eating away at your principal the entire time you hold these instruments.

4/11/2009 2:21:24 PM

^only over multiple up and down cycles, but it doesnt matter on one dip

4/13/2009 1:31:08 PM

Either way, it looks like I am going to be well early again and fully underestimating how extreme the game playing is going to be on this round of earnings. Goldman is getting ratings upgrades after being up 15% over their 6 months ago price.

4/13/2009 1:46:27 PM

Quote :

"Mr. Joshua All American 26072 Posts user info edit post I picked up a bit more C at $2.71. 4/6/2009 4:08:35 PM lafta All American 11063 Posts user info edit post ^do you hate money? 4/6/2009 8:55:48 PM"

up 32% in a week.

4/13/2009 2:44:33 PM

I'm enjoying my purchase of BAC @ $5.37 from a couple months back.

4/13/2009 3:08:58 PM

^ Ditto on BAC at 5.52 and C at 1.63 and 2.71

4/13/2009 3:11:33 PM

I got into BAC at $6.80 and C at $1.83. Glad I did.

4/13/2009 3:47:21 PM

I wish I got some C when it was sub 2.50... oh well. I've got enough AIG @ 0.88 to make me

4/13/2009 5:06:42 PM

Quote :

"ssjamind All American 28257 Posts user info edit post this is what prompted me: http://tinyurl.com/dyhum9 maybe this bloke is trying to pump and dump, but the whole "Obama is NOT a commie" argument resonated with me as i'd been telling people that all along. 2/23/2009 4:02:10 PM"

4/13/2009 6:20:31 PM

I got in for C at 2.70 a month ago, and picked up FAS this morning for 9.20 Today was a good day.

4/13/2009 6:35:27 PM

barking from the dog

smog

breakfast with hog

4/13/2009 6:58:51 PM

Quote :

"The average bear market rally is about 40 days but most don't have the velocity this one has. I think we fizzle out at 7,900 and make a fell swoop to 6,800 before the end of April. The earnings suck and there is no positive outlook in inflating debt 3/25/2009 11:14:02 PM"

Well I nailed the first half of this with almost unreal precision. The next two weeks I think we see a brutal sell off. "It's priced in" will look laughable by April 30th.

4/13/2009 7:53:36 PM

You're joking right? 7900 was a mere 150 pts (or 1.9%) up from where it was when you made that statement. The market currently sits another 157 points (or 2%) up from that point. You basically missed by 100% as of today.

I agree with the rest of your sentiment though.

4/13/2009 8:59:33 PM

Quote :

"ssjamind All American 28260 Posts user info edit post ...thinking about chasing DNDN 4/3/2009 6:52:40 PM"

I'M ON A BOAT M07H3RF(K3R DON'T YOU EVER FORGET!!1

4/14/2009 11:40:31 AM

one of my favorite words in the world is "monetize"

4/14/2009 3:50:46 PM

the tax credits

4/14/2009 8:20:03 PM

Comparing retrospectively your posts and the charts, you guys would do much better playing some Blackjack in Vegas.

4/14/2009 8:23:07 PM

sorry married boy, average return in this thread is 1600%, these guys are pros

4/14/2009 9:00:59 PM

If I could remove one completely asinine move I made with regard to BBY, I'd be up about 30% YTD. As it is, I'm down around 15%.

4/14/2009 9:24:14 PM

Does anyone know of some way to get taxact to import scottrade gainskeeper info?

AFAIK, it only lets you go to a gainskeeper.com account

4/14/2009 11:47:29 PM

i might regret it, but i'm betting big on aig today.

[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 9:31 AM. Reason : .]

4/15/2009 9:30:58 AM

Of all the financial companies to roll the dice on, why AIG?

4/15/2009 9:51:50 AM

Quote :

"nchockey All American 1727 Posts user info edit post Comparing retrospectively your posts and the charts, you guys would do much better playing some Blackjack in Vegas. 4/14/2009 8:23:07 PM statehockey8 All American 768 Posts user info edit post sorry married boy, average return in this thread is 1600%, these guys are pros 4/14/2009 9:00:59 PM"

i suck at blackjack - apparently its the 'thinking man's game' - probably why i lose a lot


2009 has been great so far thanks to FAS, BAC, DNDN and a few other one-off trades. i had a few stem cell and nat gas themes that didn't work out as well.

2008 jackhammered me like it did a lot of people -- maybe moreso because i got killed on my DCR position (see summer months of the 2008 thread). i was down 60% by end of calendar year.


-------------------

back in fas @ 7.92



[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 10:11 AM. Reason : ]

4/15/2009 10:04:09 AM

^^the short answer? strictly an emotional, 50/50 chance and not much more than that except some very limited reading earlier this morning.

i'm betting on positive news all around this week even though common sense and logic say otherwise. just keeping with the trend of no trend i guess you could say with all the other surprises? based on that, i think AIG and C will be the biggest movers today, and i'm already comfortable with my position in C. i plan to be out of AIG by mid afternoon hopefully.

i debated back and forth over fas or faz for today as well, but decided at the last minute that they'll both probably be too volatile for my tastes. plus, i've been very fortunate with fas lately and i'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. i'm still in fas for a small position though. i think yesterday's drop was simply profit taking and there is more in it.

like i said, i might be hurting at close, but i was due to step out on a limb.


[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 10:38 AM. Reason : but i'm riding the C whore till at least the end of the week, if not longer.]

4/15/2009 10:35:03 AM

BAC @ 9.47

4/15/2009 11:05:04 AM