moron All American 34078 Posts user info edit post |
^ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#stateorder
lots of paths (not really, just new Hampshire primarily, or any other state) 11/1/2016 11:22:56 AM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Latest Elon poll for NC is tied. 44-44-4.
Also has Burr up 4 on Ross.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:02 PM. Reason : Last Elon poll was C+6 and this tie was PRE-Comey ] 11/1/2016 12:59:15 PM |
The E Man Suspended 15268 Posts user info edit post |
anyone who says the race is remotely close doesnt understand how the electoral college works. trump going from winning states to landsliding in states doesnt mean anything. 11/1/2016 1:00:51 PM |
Pupils DiL8t All American 4959 Posts user info edit post |
I think that this literally caused my blood pressure to increase.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459
Quote : | "[Trump] has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights..." |
11/1/2016 1:06:24 PM |
moron All American 34078 Posts user info edit post |
that was before comey too. I can't think of what trump was saying/doing then other than the election is rigged and his pussy grabbing/sexual assault cycled out of the media 11/1/2016 1:14:14 PM |
skywalkr All American 6788 Posts user info edit post |
If the nowcast stays as is but Trump wins NC and FL and McMullin takes Utah we have my dream scenario of no one getting 270 and a random third party actually having a chance to be president. That is the only thing that could make this election anymore insane. 11/1/2016 1:15:48 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
The reality is GOP and GOP-leaning indies were always going to come home.
A closer race doesn't fit Earls everything was rigged narrative. He can basically be ignored.
Empirically it is still very likely Clinton wins and the GOP holds the Senate now but that is far more fluid than it was a week ago.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:17 PM. Reason : ^ wat? Trump would obviously be pres in that scenario. And it's still highly unlikely] 11/1/2016 1:16:53 PM |
AndyMac All American 31922 Posts user info edit post |
^^ trump would also have to win Nevada and one of the following: Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire 11/1/2016 1:27:27 PM |
AndyMac All American 31922 Posts user info edit post |
This key model that has been high on Trump for months suddenly shifted to Clinton getting a big win?
I mean I think she's gonna win but I don't get what changed.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:38 PM. Reason : Maybe I'm thinking of two different analytical models that claim they have been right since way back] 11/1/2016 1:35:17 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "William J. Clinton Foundation: This initial release consists of material from the FBI's files related to the Will... vault.fbi.gov/william-j.-cli…" |
From a verified FBI twitter. They are just taking the piss now. How on earth does it look normal to release this from a file closed in 2005 on Nov 1, 2016.
It is just trolling but what is going on over there?11/1/2016 1:38:10 PM |
rjrumfel All American 22996 Posts user info edit post |
^^^^^^^Where's Shrike to defend Hillary's polling numbers in that ABC article? That's pretty scary.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:39 PM. Reason : ^] 11/1/2016 1:39:20 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
^^ Can you post a link?
It might be because Wikileaks is enacting "Phase 3" this week, which I suspect is a Clinton Foundation leak.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:42 PM. Reason : .] 11/1/2016 1:41:41 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
https://vault.fbi.gov/william-j.-clinton-foundation
I think it's probably in response to a FOIA request. But holy crap, timing... 11/1/2016 1:44:09 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
Thanks, twitter link too if you have it
Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/793482749025792000
This is very strange.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:55 PM. Reason : .] 11/1/2016 1:44:57 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
It looks like it's been randomly dropping relevant information to the election (again probably FOIA related). Did one on Trump's dad too. 11/1/2016 2:00:32 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "^^^^^^^Where's Shrike to defend Hillary's polling numbers in that ABC article? That's pretty scary." |
What does "defend" poll numbers mean. Tracking polls are garbage, they always have been. Any poll that shows a 13 point swing in a week should be completely ignored. No other national poll has shown a swing that large, in fact most have held perfectly steady at a 5-7 lead for Clinton.11/1/2016 2:01:20 PM |
goalielax All American 11252 Posts user info edit post |
even newt was 67% right in a tweet about it. polls shouldn't be ignored. outlier polls should be.
tracking polls are indeed garbage. this still pales in comparison to the absurdity of the LA Times tracker that gives one black kid a 30x weighting to make his one voice represent a huge swath of america. 11/1/2016 2:09:05 PM |
rjrumfel All American 22996 Posts user info edit post |
Polling numbers are garbage when they aren't going your candidates way. That's the way it always has been. 11/1/2016 2:09:51 PM |
stowaway All American 11770 Posts user info edit post |
apparently the fbi wants it to be pence as president come January 11/1/2016 2:21:50 PM |
travelagent Starting Lineup 56 Posts user info edit post |
Is it weird that nobody checked my ID when I went to vote? Like I just said my name and they were like ok. 11/1/2016 2:24:30 PM |
ShinAntonio Zinc Saucier 18947 Posts user info edit post |
The voter ID law was struck down, so no. 11/1/2016 2:39:11 PM |
AndyMac All American 31922 Posts user info edit post |
Only theory I can come up with for the abc trackig poll is some of the people in the poll voted already and stopped bothering to reply, and most of them voted for Clinton. 11/1/2016 3:18:31 PM |
JCE2011 Suspended 5608 Posts user info edit post |
^^^ Way to show off your white privilege.
You should be more empathetic and understanding towards minorities who are mentally incapable of possessing any form of ID, racist. 11/1/2016 4:09:07 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
But... that's not an argument?
*** WRAL poll for NC just came out. All post Comey. Last was C+2. Now T+7.
A rated pollster by 538.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 4:14 PM. Reason : X] 11/1/2016 4:10:52 PM |
JCE2011 Suspended 5608 Posts user info edit post |
It triggers people that think (via racism of low expectations) that voter ID laws are racist. 11/1/2016 4:14:17 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
this FBIRecordsVault is sketchy as fuck. A verified account that claims to be "the official FBI Records Management Division Twitter" that barely posted before is suddenly posting a bunch of stuff related to the election.
I hope that its not connected to the FBI in anyway, because if so someone needs to shut it down 11/1/2016 4:14:57 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/
So this would be consistent with what? A 4 or 5 point national lead for Trump. To be +7 here would likely mean a Trump landslide, no? 11/1/2016 4:22:02 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
Y'all are really going to bedwet over every single outlier poll these last 7 days, aren't you? SurveyUSA has a terrible history polling NC, here's a poll after the 2008 RNC where they had McCain up 20 points in NC,
http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/
Let me ruin the suspense: Hillary is going to win every Obama 2012 state + NC - IA. She might lose Ohio too, but early voting is looking better there every day. Shrike out. 11/1/2016 4:30:48 PM |
travelagent Starting Lineup 56 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "^^^ Way to show off your white privilege.
You should be more empathetic and understanding towards minorities who are mentally incapable of possessing any form of ID, racist." |
I'm not white. Just thinking they would need to prove it's me and not just anyone with my name can go vote as me.11/1/2016 5:01:03 PM |
UJustWait84 All American 25819 Posts user info edit post |
^^ it's great that you're so confident, but I've already started browsing jobs in the UK, Australia, and NZ just in case. 11/1/2016 5:03:22 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "this FBIRecordsVault is sketchy as fuck. A verified account that claims to be "the official FBI Records Management Division Twitter" that barely posted before is suddenly posting a bunch of stuff related to the election.
I hope that its not connected to the FBI in anyway, because if so someone needs to shut it down" |
I'm starting to believe the talk about unrest in the FBI. This week should be fun.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 5:05 PM. Reason : .]11/1/2016 5:04:47 PM |
ElGimpy All American 3111 Posts user info edit post |
^^^ If you're caught voting as someone else you face up to 5 years in prison and a possible $10k fine. I'm not too concerned about them checking IDs
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 5:05 PM. Reason : ^] 11/1/2016 5:05:23 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "^^ it's great that you're so confident, but I've already started browsing jobs in the UK, Australia, and NZ just in case. " |
Way ahead of you, I paid $200 for my Canadian passport last year 11/1/2016 5:06:52 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
The FBI said its legally required to release results immediately from a FOIA request thus the tweet.
Must not have gotten any for that full year in between tweets. 11/1/2016 6:49:53 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
That doesn't make sense at all, the stuff they are tweeting is old and it was not very active before
And also I'm sure the law says nothing about tweeting releases 11/1/2016 6:54:06 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
^^ Nope, they released a bunch the day before. One on Nikola Tesla (???), Trump's dad, Petraeus, and Hillary's FBI testimony (which had already been released in Sept). Various other documents.
It's very bizarre.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 6:56 PM. Reason : .] 11/1/2016 6:55:46 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Let me try and find the statement. It's bizarre.
https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793581160651776001
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 6:58 PM. Reason : I guess they didn't reference tweet in statement] 11/1/2016 6:57:53 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
The Tesla thing is especially interesting. Some people are claiming it to be an homage to this weird 4chan time travel story about Fred Trump and Tesla, lending credibility to "FBIAnon".
I don't buy it, but it is strange.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:03 PM. Reason : Or maybe it's just because Trump's uncle worked on the case, lol] 11/1/2016 6:58:17 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Honestly, I'm sure they were all legit FOIA requests but the tweet thing is the odd to me. 11/1/2016 7:07:46 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
For full on conspiracy, this guy (former Dept. Asst. Sec. State to Kissinger, Harvard and MIT grad) claims to be part of an intelligence community coup.
http://youtu.be/ov5kvWSz5LM
Unfortunately he's also a regular on Alex Jones and thinks San Bernardino was a false flag.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:10 PM. Reason : .] 11/1/2016 7:09:28 PM |
UJustWait84 All American 25819 Posts user info edit post |
The thing with being a conspiracy theory 'fan' is that it requires tons of attention and patience, with very little actual payoff in the end. It's similar to getting sucked into the UNC cheating scandal and following tweets/posts incessantly, building your hopes and dreams up that the best case scenario will eventually happen (NCAA death penalty), but in the end it's all just a tease and then you're left feeling dumb and pissed off about how unfair the world actually is. You seem to really enjoy them, but so far, what concrete results have you gotten? 11/1/2016 7:29:32 PM |
The E Man Suspended 15268 Posts user info edit post |
man id put any amouny of money on hillary winning this election. there is zero doubt. its only these popular vote polls making people nervous. trump can win every swing state by 30 and still have no chance of being president. show me a poll where he is within moe in Pennsylvania or michigan and then we can have a conversation about how the election might be getting close. you guys just dont seem to get how 270 works. 11/1/2016 7:41:08 PM |
UJustWait84 All American 25819 Posts user info edit post |
No, we do. I'm honestly not really worried about the popular vote. What bothers me is that states that have been solid blue/lean blue are now pretty close to being within the MOE and could very well go for Trump. I never counted OH as blue, but FL/NC scare me. 11/1/2016 7:44:47 PM |
The E Man Suspended 15268 Posts user info edit post |
thats my point. you are worried about states that still wouldnt get him to 270.
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:48 PM. Reason : maybe you are really worried about the senate.] 11/1/2016 7:48:01 PM |
AndyMac All American 31922 Posts user info edit post |
I'm not necessarily concerned at this point. Right now I'm disappointed that it's not going to be the blowout it looked like a week ago.
The only thing that does concern me is that there haven't been a lot of recent polls in Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I think people have been focused for so long on Pennsylvania as the most likely firewall state to flip, but I think she has it locked down and there has been tons of polling done there. Those other 3 haven't seen quite as much. 11/1/2016 7:52:17 PM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | " You seem to really enjoy them, but so far, what concrete results have you gotten?" |
Lots from the DNC/Podesta leaks. DNC/HRC collusion, media collusion, debates scheduled to favor Clinton, foreign governments paying the Clinton Foundation for access to Bill/Hillary/Chelsea, Citi exec drafting most of Obama's cabinet, etc etc. In any other election, or if this information came out during the primary, things would be different. But Trump though...
[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 8:36 PM. Reason : .]11/1/2016 8:35:36 PM |
ElGimpy All American 3111 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "man id put any amouny of money on hillary winning this election" |
Hey E Man great news, YOU CAN DO THIS!
There are multiple websites that will allow you to do this. Wouldn't you like to have more money? You keep saying shit like this over and over, wouldn't your time be better spent actually placing the bets? Where are the screenshots of your positions?11/2/2016 8:50:48 AM |
rjrumfel All American 22996 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Citi exec drafting most of Obama's cabinet," |
Is this true?
adultswim could you list your source? I'm not questioning or doubting, just curious.11/2/2016 10:23:59 AM |
adultswim Suspended 8379 Posts user info edit post |
^ https://newrepublic.com/article/137798/important-wikileaks-revelation-isnt-hillary-clinton
you can google all the rest too. my source is the leaks themselves, but articles have been written.
[Edited on November 2, 2016 at 10:31 AM. Reason : .] 11/2/2016 10:29:10 AM |
rjrumfel All American 22996 Posts user info edit post |
Is that a reputable source? It seems like if you don't post something from Huffington, CNN, Salon or Washington Post, it isn't a legitimate source.
But if so, holy shit that's corrupt.
But I bet every president does it. Big oil probably picked Bush's cabinet. 11/2/2016 10:33:02 AM |