yeah, it looks like the stress test announcement killed the hopes of any decent financial gains anywhere. maybe good news if you missed out on getting into C or BAC before or want to increase your position. i don't see how you can go wrong with either of them over the long run.

AIG is just kind of floundering around, not real sure what to do. stick it out and see what happens i suppose.

4/15/2009 11:37:34 AM

get awn it FAS, w00t

[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM. Reason : AIG couldn't be more boring]

4/15/2009 2:09:07 PM

^^ agreed, I put in a decent position in BAC around 10.27 yesterday. Wish I had waited till this morning to pull the trigger for this surge here at the end of the day. I would hope for a 15-20 mark on a good report 4/20.

4/15/2009 3:58:13 PM

I've picked up a good amount of GE as well. I'm liking it as a long term investement.

4/15/2009 4:53:10 PM

^ Also a fan, would have been nice to get in early March though. Nice to see something other than FAS/FAZ on here.

4/15/2009 5:27:00 PM

As much time as I spend playing with options on things like FAS and SSO, I've really loaded up my portfolio with solid long term investments like GE, JBHT, and a number of beaten down financials. I'd say right now I'm about 20% trading and 80% investment.

4/15/2009 6:24:15 PM

OK tdub, I am going to invest in some financials....I am going to have then long term (at least 5 years probably longer). I am thinking for sure BAC and C...then Wells...maybe BB&T (this one probably the least likely to go way up or way down) and then one other...I am not sure which one...about 5k for each.

I have in the best done mainly mutual funds and Roths, but decided this year I should buy into some individual stocks. I usually do this at the end of each year but last year didnt because of the implosion.

[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 7:42 PM. Reason : w]

4/15/2009 7:40:16 PM

Quote :

"I've picked up a good amount of GE as well. I'm liking it as a long term investement"

You better hope they work the bugs out of that ESBWR they are developing. Word is they don't have a single buyer for it yet. Most utilites look to be going for pressurized water reactors. In this way Westinghouse (owned by Toshiba) and Areva are well ahead.

4/15/2009 9:09:47 PM

miti, im looking to go all in on this pharmasutical company
they may have a cancer drug breakthrough, still doing research though

4/16/2009 3:11:59 AM

should be one HELL of a fun day with the announcements last night, earnings this mirning, etc, i can't wait! i flipped my lid even more after AIG just teasing me yesterday. for today i'm nearly all in for FAS! now i i did keep a consolation prize in C, lol. i WILL have some exitement this week damn it, one way or the other. it's like... stock market roulette!

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 7:38 AM. Reason : come on, someone go big on it with me, always passes the time better]

4/16/2009 7:37:06 AM

How big are we talking? I have a 5 figure position in SRS at 34.69. I thought for a split second yesterday premarket when I saw it trading above 37 plus some stuff I had just read to go ahead and book the profit because I'd get another chance to enter it again in a day or so at a lower price. Little did I know, Fraudman Sach(ofshit) would upgrade a REIT to a buy which sent the entire real estate market soaring and whacked 15% off of SRS. This came less than 24 hrs before the second largest mall operator (General Growth) filed for bankruptcy and less than 24 hrs before JPM doubled the amount they set aside for loan losses. This market is so fucking fragile that you can literally have the timing and direction nearly perfect and some fraudster will come out with a sham analysis and cause a panic or a pump.

Edit:
Oh great, just realized it's housing starts day, I'm guessing this is going to kick me square in the nuts too.

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 8:28 AM. Reason : .]

4/16/2009 8:13:57 AM

5 figure as well. 4 in C. only thing i can't decide on is buy my final shares at the bell or give it a wait for any leftover profit takiing from yesterday? hmmm

4/16/2009 9:14:52 AM

held it, glad i did. will pull the trigger once it gets a steady gain back.

4/16/2009 9:37:13 AM

Quote :

"I have a 5 figure position in SRS at 34.69"

call me an amateur, call me a little bitch, but after my beating from DCR last summer, i have a strong aversion to putting on large short positions...

i'm not a huge fan of shorts to begin with. given the low pecking order of equities to begin with, philosophically i think the act of even participating in public markets is an innately bullish move; and that by itself is a short killer... but that's a longer theoretical discussion for another time.

4/16/2009 9:47:25 AM

^ Yeah, it's probably another in a long line of dumb decisions without stops in place. However, I have been reading for weeks if not months now of the impending crash in CRE. SRS would be at around the $40 range right now if it wouldn't have been for the lame home builders index report yesterday coupled with the upgrade from GS. The theory on the unexpectedly positive builders index is that survivors that haven't bankrupted yet will have a more positive slant thinking that they will in fact survive the market since they are still around. The index number went from 8 -> 14, or, back to it's fantastic high mark of October 08 (where SRS traded anywhere from 75-200). The fact that it is up 5% already today tells me that the GS upgrade was pure manipulation as can be expected. I actually sold April 40 covereds on it early yesterday for .85 (traded as high as 1.45 literally minutes later) that lowers my basis to the 34.90 range. I feel pretty good about this one but I'm definitely going to set a trailing stop once it gets to the 40 range and if I get booted out way short of what I could get, I'll be fine with that.


On top of all that, most everything I am reading is pointing to some sort of breakout in one direction or the other very soon. It's becoming as obvious now as the jump from the March 9 lows. Charts are showing rounded reversal, rising bearish wedge, overbought conditions, and so on and so forth. Zero Hedge has also done about 3-4 posts in a series about quants and their effect on the market and it seems to be pointing for skyrocketing volatility in the very near future

Read this one and back track on some of his other posts about it
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/impending-market-reversal.html

As the market keeps getting slapped back down each time it tries to crack this 850-60 range, I'm probably going to set stops on SRS and take a position in FAS with tight stops and hopefully if the market rockets one way or the other I'll be in a good spot.



[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 9:56 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 10:00 AM. Reason : .]

4/16/2009 9:47:34 AM

in at $8.50. wheeeee!

4/16/2009 9:56:34 AM

This is the stuff that makes me feel great

04/08/09 Sold -10 FAS EJ
Call Direxion Shares Etf $8 Exp 05/16/09 Finl Bull
CALL DIREXION SHARES ETF
$8 EXP 05/16/09
FINL BULL $0.75 $11.45 $0.01 $738.54

Last Change Bid Ask Size Mid Volume Open Interest Time
2.25 04/16/09 9:57 AM -0.15 2.25 2.35 3121 x 1770 2.30 730 17,947 04/16/09 9:59 AM

I mean, I didn't really need that extra $1500 for anything. It actually traded as high as 3.25 or so.

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 10:17 AM. Reason : .]

4/16/2009 10:16:18 AM

here comes the late afternoon rally! yet another good day to be in FAS and C. i'm not holding a damn thing past 4:00 today though.

4/16/2009 3:10:18 PM

picked up some fas may 9s this morning for $1.70 - just sold for $2.10 not very confident about it with citi reporting in the morning. if the rally continues until 4, i'll probably pick up some faz calls for the morning.


[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 3:23 PM. Reason : picked up faz may 11s @ $1.50]

4/16/2009 3:11:41 PM

yeah, if anything i might would pick up some faz for tomorrow. i'm planning to sit the day out though (barring any wild changes or shocks that could be taken advantage of).

4/16/2009 3:24:25 PM

What do yall think about FITB? It seems pretty attractive at $4 a share.

4/16/2009 3:46:10 PM

ouch, talk about a bitter ending for FAS! glad i didn't hold until the end.

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 4:04 PM. Reason : and still dropping after hours...]

4/16/2009 4:04:00 PM

would definitely not pick up FAZ ahead of Citi earnings -- the gubment has all but put a floor under them

4/16/2009 5:09:09 PM

Pretty sure my 5 figure investment in SRS has turned into a 4 figure investment.

I'm pretty much blown away by how manipulated the REIT market has been. One REIT goes bankrupt, so that obviously means all the other REITs are suddenly worth buying right now for the long haul? It makes a bit of sense, but at what point was that not priced in that everyone just now got the clue?

4/16/2009 5:12:53 PM

AIG anyone?

4/16/2009 8:24:51 PM

Quote :

"would definitely not pick up FAZ ahead of Citi earnings -- the gubment has all but put a floor under them"

i was hoping a combination of citi disappointing this morning (which didn't happen ), expirations today, and the stress tests next week (?), people would be a little skiddish and there would be a pretty massive sell-off today.



[Edited on April 17, 2009 at 8:58 AM. Reason : ^what makes you want AIG?]

4/17/2009 8:56:46 AM

I said it pages back, do not underestimate (and I still did it) the games that will be played on the balance sheets of these companies. In general, they made profit 2 big ways this go round

1) Balance sheet shenanigans. None of them took big writedowns on their assets. They are still carrying stuff at $1 that they could be lucky to get .50 for.

2) Apparently, they all made large sums of money on fixed income investment...meaning they took the TARP money (our money) they were supposed to lend out and took shares in companies. Why else would three of the big banking heads in consecutive days go on a PR campaign about how good their quarter was going in the midst of nasty down turn. Couple that with quant programs providing all the liquidity, you have the makings of one of the fakest rallies of all time.

Now that the financials are done for the most part, I think it's probably safe to start dabbling in FAZ. I'd still set tight stops but there shouldn't be any real shocks in the near future.

4/17/2009 9:05:56 AM

http://tinyurl.com/d8ljpn

4/17/2009 11:04:06 AM

the top of this bear market rally will likely be somewhere between here and S&P 900.

i just hope a bunch of you aren't getting killed being short too early.

4/17/2009 2:07:58 PM

<---- Killed.

4/17/2009 2:18:13 PM

i feel you. i think it may be a lesson that has to be lived to be learned. i lost my lunch last year on DCR when oil moved from 130 to about 150

4/17/2009 2:46:08 PM

Well, I'm way the hell up today. Sadly I wanted to be down so that my calls could quietly expire.

4/17/2009 2:49:28 PM

Quote :

"<---- Killed."

Definitely learning some expensive lessons in this market.

The biggest one and it is the most simple one of all is to not trade on emotion. It's insane (literally) how I kept getting burned by

#1 Taking positions in these ETFs randomly after big moves thinking that the trend won't continue
and
#2 Compounding the problem is not setting tight stops once I do something so stupid.

Respect the trend will be my motto going forward for sure.


Having said that, I'm eager as hell to violate both of those rules by buying some May 65 calls on SDS for 4.40.

[Edited on April 17, 2009 at 3:20 PM. Reason : .]

4/17/2009 3:18:32 PM

I have always invested/traded entirely on fundamentals, dismissing technical analysis as junk.

clearly the past few months have shown that the current market sentiment has little to do with fundamentals, while the technicals have been more revealing.

meh.

4/17/2009 3:23:11 PM

Quote :

"dismissing technical analysis as junk"

This is still truth.

4/17/2009 3:27:58 PM

yes, but so is the upward trend in the market lately.

so i guess that's why it can work right now.

4/17/2009 3:29:43 PM

if you think of technicals as a quantitative mapping of human psychology, then they cannot and should not be ignored.

its not numerology, its just a mathematical representation of how humans behave.

4/17/2009 4:15:29 PM

dur dee dur dur. i made $ today

4/17/2009 4:38:24 PM

I too set a new record for amount of cash in my account today.

4/17/2009 4:46:40 PM

thinking about buying some PNC...if I can get it at 40 or below.

[Edited on April 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM. Reason : w]

4/17/2009 4:49:39 PM

I'm curious, do you guys trade using the capital in your 401k? Or are you investing money that would otherwise be sitting in your checking or savings account?

4/18/2009 1:54:13 AM

i could've made $700 today but didn't sell

4/18/2009 2:27:15 AM

^^for me, it's seperate from my 401k and other long term investment contributions. no way i'd risk that on day trading.

i'm looking at going back into C on monday. anyone else?

4/18/2009 4:10:43 PM

I might pick up a little more or I might just sell a few may puts since they expire relatively early next month.

4/18/2009 4:18:53 PM

i am excited about the open so much so that i'm missing some sleep over it

4/20/2009 1:43:36 AM

Was going to buy some XRT puts first thing today, however they opened up 15% and 22% already so I missed out on that one. Was also wanting to short F at the 3.95 range with a stop set to 4.15 and it's down 6% already there.

4/20/2009 9:49:53 AM

picked up IBM @ 99.75

and EDC @ 50.4

[Edited on April 20, 2009 at 11:00 AM. Reason : ]

4/20/2009 10:45:54 AM

4/20/2009 11:00:04 AM

starting to think i made a bad choice buying c today

4/20/2009 1:22:00 PM

everything is going down down down

4/20/2009 1:26:01 PM