^^
https://archive.is/yw0dE

9/21/2024 12:56:16 AM

https://www.elon.edu/u/elon-poll/

Kamala +1 in NC

9/24/2024 11:00:51 AM

Sorry, but I can't trust the Elon Musk Twitter poll.

9/24/2024 12:05:14 PM

Polling wise this is the closest election in my life. It’s closer than Hillary-Trump in 2016

Doesn’t make any sense… he’s talking about mass deportations being bloody affairs, he’s leading chants to deport Haitians who are legally allowed to live here

I guess it’s the same problem Hillary had. Kamala can talk about normal political stuff and it doesn’t break through.

9/24/2024 6:04:42 PM

This country is stupid.

9/24/2024 6:42:18 PM

Have the polls gotten smart enough in the past 8 years to compensate for Trump's outperformance, or are we sunk?

9/24/2024 8:31:34 PM

Impossible to say for sure at this point, but there are people whose assessments I think hold weight who are in agreement that most polling is over compensating, and in a pretty simplistic way - basically just adding something to whatever Trump numbers they get, either because they haven't really figured out how to account statistically for past results, or because they want to create the appearance of a closer race.

The inherent optimism in that assessment makes me skeptical, but the I see the logic. Certainly there's a lot of polling that has shown results that cannot be attempted to be believed - things like the youth and black votes shifting massively in Trump's direction since 2020. And their response rates have got to be so cockeyed at this point I don't know how you get anything out of them. Like I said before, only the criminally insane or terminally senescent answer calls from unknown numbers. Online polls are a joke.

Perhaps more telling is the candidates' behavior at the moment, which to me suggests that internal polling from both sides shows the Democrats doing well. Harris is behaving like someone who is winning and doesn't want to fuck it up. Trump is acting like someone who is behind and increasingly desperate.

9/25/2024 8:56:16 AM

Don't forget that Cheeto's sole reason for running, beside self-aggrandizement, is to stay out of jail. He loses this election, and he's toast. That's got to add to his desperation

9/25/2024 10:20:41 AM

If the polls were showing a comfortable lead for Democrats nationally or in battleground states, it might depress the turnout among those with short memories who again (somehow) assume it's in the bag. Keeping it close may help motivate otherwise apathetic voters to come out. I don't know, I'm just spitballing.

9/25/2024 11:24:00 AM

^^I used to think that, too, but actually I don't think the threat of jailtime weighs on him much. He has plenty of reasons to think he'll never see the inside of a cell - past experience, his major influence over the courts, the logistical challenges of actually incarcerating a former POTUS. If anything I think he wants to shut down the cases just for the sheer smug satisfaction of it.

9/25/2024 3:30:13 PM

Quote :

"which to me suggests that internal polling from both sides shows the Democrats doing well."

a question for a poli sci dude that I've always wondered about:

what makes their internal polling different from major news polls, polling organizations, university conducted polls, etc?

9/25/2024 7:18:56 PM

They're much more targeted both in terms of the questions and the people polled. The candidate is asking questions about very specific things - policies, likes and dislikes, whatever - and they're asking a sample tailored to be representative of whatever group they're trying to influence. Internal polls are probably also somewhat higher in quality across the board, since candidates have incentive to spring for the best in a way that media outlets just don't.

9/26/2024 2:08:29 PM

In a way people willing to participate almost seems like it'd give some kind of skewed reflection of reality, but I guess it could be that way on each side...the skewness cancels each other out. In so far as there are die hards for trump and die hards for libs.

9/26/2024 7:03:42 PM

Interesting point. Helene may impact the election.

https://twitter.com/TimBoyumTV/status/1839825681741455495

9/27/2024 9:08:50 PM

Don't help them in Hickville Trump counties, though.

9/27/2024 10:19:13 PM

The only way to have a fair election is in-person paper ballots that are all counted up the same day!

9/27/2024 10:42:33 PM

Oh, that's right! How could I forget. Otherwise it's cheating and a sham election.

9/28/2024 8:15:03 AM

Quote :

"The only way to have a fair election is in-person paper ballots"

I really hate how the right turned election security and paper ballots in particular into a partisan issue. I spent a good amount of time in 2019 advocating for paper ballots over alternatives.

a friend of mine (who is a Democrat) had to sue Wake County Board of Elections because they banned her from attending public meetings, just because she was vocal about paper ballots being the best way to provide the public transparency on elections.

https://www.thisweekinthetriangle.com/p/exclusive-wake-co-paid-10k-to-settle

9/28/2024 9:40:29 AM

Like paper ballot that goes through the scanner thing?

9/28/2024 1:26:50 PM

computer tabulation is fine because we can do statistical sampling (risk limiting audit is the term used in the industry) after to identify potential discrepancies or anomalies, which can then trigger full recounts if necessary.

9/28/2024 1:53:03 PM

Isn't that pretty much the main way? I guess I'm trying to understand the importance of this

9/28/2024 2:46:25 PM

depending on what you mean by "this"

We didn't really start digitizing our election processes in this country until about 2000 (thanks to all the drama with the Bush-Gore election). But because the country was relatively new to running our elections with computers and the technology was not really mature, there was a lot of consternation about the approaches that we would take. By 2008 up until about 2016 we had more or less settled on hand marked paper ballots tabulated by scanners. But because the technology has now advanced, some of the vendors (there's only like 2-3 for the whole country, and some of them have eyebrow-raising political ties) wanted to introduce things like pressing buttons on a screen to record a vote with a printout using barcodes and QR codes, which are not readable by voters before they submit the printout to the scanner and so they cannot confirm that the machines recorded their votes according to the voter's intent which is important in the case of a hand recount. Arguably because the vendors are more concerned about selling new products to different states/counties (CAPITALISM OMG) than actually strengthening our election apparatus. There is always going to be a risk with any technology (including paper) of potential shenanigans (both domestic (see karl rove and ohio in 2004) and foreign (see russia in 2016)), but the scale at which you can impact elections when they lean so heavily on computers is too much of a risk and so it's better to continue to use hand-marked paper ballots and use the computers only for tabulation + statistically sound sampling to verify the counts.


[Edited on September 28, 2024 at 3:42 PM. Reason : .]

9/28/2024 3:34:48 PM

We have the dock workers union and Netanyahu seemingly trying to help trump? Is that conspiratorial?

10/1/2024 12:09:05 PM

Hopefully walz sucks the most on his first answer

10/1/2024 9:06:07 PM

seems to be doing a little better now. unfortunate first 30 seconds but I don't think it's too damaging if he can maintain for the rest of the show

10/1/2024 9:16:06 PM

I hope, thats why I wasn't like "DEBATE OVER!!!1", seemed like he crammed too much, and was nervous

10/1/2024 9:17:28 PM

His first answer was a little shaky, but far from anything devastating, and definitely improved after

10/1/2024 9:20:40 PM

This debate is unwatchable. Talking way too fast about nitpicky irrelevant things. It’s like an online argument come to life.

10/1/2024 9:39:47 PM

yeah it's been a chore to watch

10/1/2024 10:04:16 PM

I didn't like how moderators let jd vance ask question and then were like "yeah answer that"

And they sure seem to agree often. I wonder how long until someone asks Kamala what she hunts

10/1/2024 10:06:25 PM

They both have nice eyes.

10/1/2024 10:30:02 PM

WTF, how did Vance just say what he said with a straight face--that all he and Trump have ever said was that we should peacefully debate in the public square about election results?

10/1/2024 10:33:20 PM

I feel like a majority will say vance won this, but that he is more polished etc. But overall won't really affect anything. If Vance had bombed I bet Trump would have debated Kamala again if the polls went way down. I doubt Trump will debate now. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kamala go down one and Trump go up one in an aggregate of polls over the next few weeks

[Edited on October 1, 2024 at 10:55 PM. Reason : Be more surprised if they don't get a blip from this]

10/1/2024 10:55:06 PM

JD was a little more “polished” but if you pay attention to the substance of what he was saying, there wasn’t much there. I still don’t know what the fuck he was talking about when he was asked about Jan 6 and spent the entire time talking about Kamala censoring people talking about covid???? Maybe I wasn’t paying close enough attention, but I don’t know how he even made the pivot to that topic, or what the fuck he was talking about. I don’t think I’d even heard that conspiracy theory before

10/2/2024 8:13:45 AM

No big takeaways.

two things stand out, but they are small items.

-Walz admitting he lied about Tiananmen square.
-Vance being cut off after restating the "rules"

10/2/2024 9:10:33 AM

He wasn’t cut off immeasurably after restating the rules, he was given quite a bit of time to talk after he restated them, and eventually they had to move on. I think the biggest standout for a lot of people is JD not being able to say who won the last election.

10/2/2024 9:20:21 AM

It's so cowardly. They're all petrified of Daddy Trump.

10/2/2024 1:01:44 PM

I think Trump soured on Vance last night. He looked so much more composed than Trump ever has in a debate. It’s going to go to Trump’s head.

10/2/2024 1:47:31 PM

LOL! Sounds like a can't win situation.

10/2/2024 7:04:30 PM

Harris still flat in battleground states while growing nationally

its still a tossup race

don't see much reporting on the jack smith documents showing trump lied to his own supporters are election evidence , didn't care if if pence died, wanted people to riot

10/4/2024 5:12:37 PM

There was also another stellar jobs report today, even Fox News said couldn’t find anything bad to say about it

10/4/2024 6:23:47 PM

It's because businesses know Trump is going to be President, so they are hiring!

10/4/2024 6:32:02 PM

^^^ tbh, Cheeto's supporters don't care about his lies. And anyone who would honestly be considering voting for him at this point also doesn't care. Reporting that water is wet isn't thing to sway people who don't believe in water at all

10/4/2024 6:57:54 PM

Kamala continues to do well nationally but worse in the battleground states

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Michigan and Wisconsin are all with 1 pt just like nc and ga. Pa remains tight but without mi and wi Pa doesn’t matter

It could be like grumpy says the polls are not capturing a lot of quiet Kamala voters. There was a systemic polling era undercounting democrats in 2022 by 3-4 pts

Virginia on the other hand is breaking hard for Harris. Haven’t looked into why though. I would think demographically they’re very similar to NC and PA so why so different in polls…

10/10/2024 2:12:04 PM

What’s causing the drop in Harris in swing states. Just ads? This is one of the stranger polling results I’ve ever seen with no clear triggering event.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

I know I’ve been seeing some very aggressive disingenuous ads against Harris

Trump seems to be leaning hardcore into the anti immigrant message with increasingly ominous and racist language on mass deportation

He’s openly saying the Haitians who’ve been here 20 years with protected status need to leave

10/11/2024 7:19:04 PM

My money is on the "Kamala paid for prisoners' sex changes" ads...there are two versions and I've got to admit they are both not bad

[Edited on October 11, 2024 at 10:04 PM. Reason : .]

10/11/2024 10:01:06 PM

God I wish I could vote for Obama

10/11/2024 10:26:34 PM

those prisoner sex change ads are a good example of why progressives don't need to try and out-progressive each other in recorded interviews.

10/11/2024 10:40:26 PM

^^^^

Right wing Twitter, I guess that's redundant now, seems to indicate it's her recent interviews. 60 Minutes in particular.

Nate Silver bet Keith Rabois 100K that Trump would not have a. 8 pt spread in. Florida.
https://x.com/rabois/status/1842209195610812460



[Edited on October 12, 2024 at 11:03 AM. Reason : A]

10/12/2024 10:51:43 AM

^^Im sure they're very effective, but the whole premise is just so reductive as to be absurd. Trump has said way more insane things.

10/12/2024 12:20:32 PM