well luckily with people like you we won't even need a republican party, the democratic party will be the new republican party

11/4/2016 3:20:23 PM

Quote :

"the real reason we can't have nice things is because of people like you who look at everything in fucking binary. you're just the progressive version of the binary dickheads in the GOP who are already promising to impeach clinton and deny a supreme court appointment for the duration of a democratic presidency. "

This.

11/4/2016 3:21:45 PM

its a serious possibility that the parties will shift ideologies again if clinton is elected

i mean look around. GrumpyGOP and Lonesnark pushing single payer, shrike and goalielax pushing exceptionalism.

not exclusive to this board either.

11/4/2016 3:24:45 PM

Quote :

"goalielax pushing exceptionalism."

lol why even bother engaging. binary.

11/4/2016 3:26:44 PM

Guys, Podesta is a literal witch.

2016.

11/4/2016 3:33:35 PM

I'm a liberal/democrat/progressive/whatever and I definitely don't think being an American exceptionalist is a good thing. Actually, I think it's terrible, and I make it a mission to dispel the myth to my students whenever I can. Yeah America has lots of things that are great, but the kind of exceptionalism I'm talking about stems from the 1950s or 1980s where everyone saw America as a heroic superpower that was saving the world from itself. Those days have been over for a while now. If anything, America is more of a bully, coming to terms with all its fucked up childhood and relationship issues and trying to figure out who it really is these days.

I don't think being an American exceptionalist has much to do with party affiliation either way- it has to do with having your blinders on and being a cheerleader for America.

11/4/2016 3:35:51 PM

Which government school do you teach at?

11/4/2016 3:38:04 PM

I don't teach government. I teach other various subjects at community college and a university though.

11/4/2016 3:40:53 PM

Ok, let me rephrase. So which public, government funded, schools do you teach at?

11/4/2016 3:43:34 PM

Quote :

"I fully support having a holiday to go vote. But then you get into this thing where if someone wants to early vote, then you need to provide a floating holiday, etc."

Sorry to derail the thread, but I just wanted to note that it would be possible to have Election Day as a national holiday while also allowing early voting days that are not holidays.

11/4/2016 3:47:58 PM

^^ I teach in the SF Bay Area at a public community college and public, four year university. There's lots of different institutions in the Bay Area that are free and public, but I don't feel the need to reveal where I work, because it's really nobody's business. Lots of other people on this board won't reveal where they work either, for various reasons that shouldn't be difficult to understand. Why do you ask?

[Edited on November 4, 2016 at 3:50 PM. Reason : .]

11/4/2016 3:49:40 PM

Anyway, back to the election, the polls are vastly overestimating Trump's chances at this point. The early voting numbers that are coming in show a huge advantage for the Democrats. She's also getting over 90% of Democratic support while Trump is getting less Republican support than Romney or McCain. Unless there's some huge pool unaffiliated voters out there who are going to turn out for Trump on election day, it's already game over. In fact, from what we do know about the unaffiliated voters, most of them are Latinos who are voting for Hillary.

11/4/2016 4:16:06 PM

I sure hope you're right. I applied for a NZ work visa yesterday, just in case.

11/4/2016 4:20:11 PM

I don't know, seeing TCOT shots of the Trump rally in Philly that shows PA is in the bag. They must have handed out some blue MAGA shirts though..

11/4/2016 4:20:48 PM

that was a joke tweet

unless you're talking about another one that wasn't a joke tweet

[Edited on November 4, 2016 at 4:38 PM. Reason : .]

11/4/2016 4:38:07 PM

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN12Y2WY

Weeeeeeeeeeeee!

and

http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/dnc-told-fbi-it-may-have-been-bugged

Weeeeeeeeeeee!

[Edited on November 4, 2016 at 6:35 PM. Reason : I have no idea if these are true but if we post every fake Fox News lead now why not]

11/4/2016 6:31:49 PM

do you democrats feel the same way about american imperialism as you do about american exceptionalism? are you fans of kissinger like clinton?

11/4/2016 6:42:33 PM

lol "you democrats"

11/4/2016 6:56:13 PM

Quote :

"can we now assume that on the morning of the election if the odds are the same and nothing crazy has happened THEN you would be betting the farm? "

for sure but they will probably be 99% Hillary by then

Quote :

"Remember when Democrats were all about change and Republicans called them unpatriotic for implying anything was wrong with our country?"

yeah back when we were coming off of 8 years of gop control. now, the demristocrats have to be american exceptionalists to support the narrative that their policies are good. AMERICA IS GREAT BECAUSE OBAMA MADE IT GREAT AND SAVED THE WORLD FROM THE BRINK OF DEATH THAT BUSH PUSHED IT TO.

Quote :

"it does not have the ability to matter fuck all on the global scene as an independent country unless you're talking about economies of scale for shitty flat packed furniture. hey can't do shit to ensure peace short of joining on to regional and global alliances. "

They don't have the ability to unilaterally fuck shit up for other people or steal from other people. Sounds like that makes them better.

Quote :

"Ideological purism is the worst. "

being against corruption isn't ideological purism. We just can't afford all the fake bullshit demristocrats do to keep office.

[Edited on November 4, 2016 at 7:29 PM. Reason : demristocrats]

11/4/2016 7:28:56 PM

Quote :

"Do people even remember what the Democrats were before the Clintons came along?"

We didn't get to have Roosevelt and Kennedy. The 80's slump was due to Carter being a weak president out of the gate after the Nixon/Ford fiascos. If we had a real leader then, the Republican party might have fallen off the map completely. Dukakis couldn't handle the fight. Then Clinton played saxophone on MTV and a young generation of Democrats got excited about politics again.

11/4/2016 7:42:23 PM

If y'all want a cheap election bet with big upside, I'd look at Rubio/Murphy. Murphy has trailed the whole way, often by what looked like impossible margins, but based on the composition of the early vote in Florida he has realistic chance of pulling it off. Betting markets are giving him ~6/7:1 odds.

11/4/2016 7:47:49 PM

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hackers-ready-hit-back-if-russia-disrupts-election-n677936

Quote :

"U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News. "

Is this real life? Wtf?

11/4/2016 8:31:53 PM

i think obama on dapl pushed me over the edge. today i finally went full extreme to feeling some emotion of wanting trump to win just to get the satisfaction of the demrsitocrats losing.

the logical side of me knows it would be risky but wonders if it would ultimately bring about more good in the long run.

11/4/2016 10:14:55 PM

im thinking too much tonight i know

everyone loses if she wins so im starting to feel like everyone needs to know they lost this election and trump winning isbthe only way half the people will realize they actually lost.

we need an awakening

11/4/2016 10:23:14 PM

The story on Wednesday morning is going to be how likely voter models vastly underestimated hispanic turnout.

11/5/2016 12:22:08 AM

Early voting doesn't really mean a whole lot. If you look at the last election, several states where early voter turn out was usually high for dems, those states still went red, and vice versa. If you want to take it as a sign of voter enthusiasm, that's fine, but it's not a strong indicator of who will actually win- especially in swing states that are essentially a dead heat right now.

11/5/2016 1:11:11 PM

Quote :

"literally nuts"

11/5/2016 1:35:55 PM

Quote :

"The story on Wednesday morning could be"

ftfy

11/5/2016 1:37:30 PM

^^^Not true, Obama won Florida and Ohio in 2012 primarily due to leads he'd built up in early voting. Mitt Romney won election day voting by big margins in both those states. Granted, neither one of them ended up being critical to his reaching 270 EVs, but Ohio being called is what the ended the night. It's not only a measure of enthusiasm, it's a measure of who's doing a better job of turning out their voters.

I think it's going to be a similar story this year, except it will be either NC or Florida being called sometime before 10PM EST, and that will be thanks to early voting. Also, just remove the "early" part from it, voting in Nevada shows it almost mathematically out of reach for Trump already (unless you think Hispanics in Democratic counties are turning out in unprecedented numbers for the guy who called them all rapists). That means that even if he wins NH (he won't), Hillary's blue wall to 270 EVs still holds.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 1:52 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 1:49:14 PM

Quote :

"University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket crunched the numbers forFiveThirtyEight on how well early voting numbers predicted the final tally in past elections. He simply concluded, “The relationship is positive, but it’s pretty noisy. In other words, knowing how a party is doing in early voting doesn’t tell you much about how it will do once all the votes are counted.” In fact, he found that looking at early voting numbers in 2012 would give you “wildly misleading” results: Democrats maintained substantial leads among early voters in North Carolina, Louisiana and West Virginia, and were trailing by a relatively narrow margin in Oklahoma, but still lost those states when all the votes were counted. Republicans won early voters in Pennsylvania and Colorado but lost the final tallies there. Maryland was a safely Democratic state in 2012, but the 75 percent of the early vote that went the Democrats’ way was a far cry from the 63 percent of the total vote they won once voting was finished. Rather, “early voting might be best interpreted as an indication of how campaigns are going to use their resources in the final weeks,” Hamel said — it’s a good measure of how campaigns need to mobilize their voters for Election Day."

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/5/13525442/polls-tighten-early-voting-good-clinton

11/5/2016 1:54:00 PM

North Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma and West Virginia were not "swing" states in 2012. Pennsylvania and Colorado don't have in person early voting. Apples to oranges.

11/5/2016 2:12:12 PM

All I'm saying is that early voting numbers that favor Clinton do not mean she's a lock in NV, nor that the election is in the bag for her. I really wish I wasn't actually this worried, but I am. I think a lot of it has to do with the media and the horse race narrative, but the fact that it's even close to begin with and that Trump has any chance at all, should be enough for you to dial back your confidence just a bit.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 2:23 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 2:17:52 PM

Meh, I believe in the data. Let me put it this way, if Trump wins this election then we can throw out literally everything we've learned about elections in this country because it no longer applies. Everyone who works in the industry may as well find new jobs.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 2:26 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 2:25:46 PM

I mean that's kind of the problem, isn't it? We've never had an election anything close to this one in terms of dysfunction and chaos. All bets off type scenario.

11/5/2016 2:28:45 PM

Quote :

" I believe in the data...if Trump wins this election then we can throw out literally everything we've learned about elections in this country"

You believe in the "data" that says your candidate holds an advantage in early voting, but not the data that says Trump has a 35% chance of winning this election? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast

11/5/2016 2:57:03 PM

^^I mean, the entire case for Trump winning comes down to believing in a bloc of voters who can't be reached by pollsters but will also turn out in huge numbers to vote for him. Either that or the "shy Trumpkin" voter which is even more ridiculous. I guess both are theoretically plausible, but just like the threat of an alien invasion, I choose not to worry about it.

^538's model has been incredibly flawed this election, and I'm not the only one saying so. But, in a word, yes. I believe the early voting data that shows Nevada is no longer winnable for him more than a model that shows otherwise.

11/5/2016 3:07:51 PM

Went to vote today on Ray road. Three signs had been kicked down. All Trump. Pretty pathetic. Long line but everyone I saw was being cordial. Glad to see Americans voting in masses. Sorry to see that some voters cant be decent humans as they pass something that is distateful to their views.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 3:13 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 3:14 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 3:13:10 PM

Three signs kicked down??? I hope nothing horrible like this happens anywhere else in the country!

11/5/2016 3:23:49 PM

Just reporting things exactly as i saw them. Not making a big statement or forcing views. Again, glad to see the long lines of many Americans casting their vote.

11/5/2016 3:25:45 PM

I voted yesterday and didn't see a single sign kicked down. Lines were short and people mostly kept to themselves. What does it all mean?

11/5/2016 3:40:02 PM

It means you saw a political system working correctly where people are civil. Also, you went on a low traffic Friday instead of the last day of early voting. Smart. I am only stating what i saw on a heavy voting day. Facts, no opinions or aggression.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 3:45 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 3:43:40 PM

Quote :

"I believe the early voting data that shows Nevada is no longer winnable for him"

Where's that data? Hopefully it's more than those tweets...

Quote :

"more than a model that shows otherwise."

538 says it's a toss up...they're not projecting a Trump win.

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 4:31 PM. Reason : So if you don't like 538's model that gives him a 35% chance, what % chance does your model give him? ]

11/5/2016 4:29:12 PM

Calling 538 flawed is grossly inaccurate.


People's opinions can and do change on a dime, it's not a function that can be mathematically modeled all the time.

In past races, the trend in the end game held up because there was not much uncertainty, so just by really luck, relying on past polls to temper future ones worked.

But that doesn't mean this race, which has had the must tumultuous end-game polling i've seen, will follow the same trend.

11/5/2016 4:42:26 PM

Quote :

"Where's that data? Hopefully it's more than those tweets..."

The same place we'll be getting election results from on November 8?

http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/EV_TurnoutData.aspx

You can feel free to look through the spreadsheets yourself and come to your own conclusions, but I'll trust the experts who are reporting on it.

I'm not going to put a percentage on his chances but it would basically require a bunch of unforeseen events (weather, terrorism, etc..) simultaneously hitting major population centers around the country that depress turnout. Short of that he has no realistic path to 270. With that said, I'll revise my affirmation on 538s model: it's not flawed, it's just wrong.

11/5/2016 4:50:33 PM

I have HRC winning 323 to 215. Of the current toss ups (IA, WI, OH, NH, VA, NC, FL), she's going to win Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. She has no chance in Ohio and I don't see her winning Iowa either. I'm least confident about NC and to a lesser extent FL, overall, but I will be shocked if she doesn't win VA, WI, NH. I see no reason to think she will lose NV either.



[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 5:18 PM. Reason : .]

11/5/2016 5:01:10 PM

Are Virginia and Wisconsin really swing states? They should rather easily go blue. I would say Georgia is in play more than those two.

11/5/2016 6:54:37 PM

http://www.wral.com/record-breaking-early-voting-turnout-highest-in-wake-county-history/16200572/

11/5/2016 7:15:28 PM

^^ I don't consider them swing states either, but polling has been mixed. The only total tossups to me right now are NC and FL. Why Nate Silver is calling NV a 50/50 race right now is pretty confusing. Given the Latino demographics, soaring early voter turn out, and the fact that most people live in the Vegas metro tend to lean more blue than red, I think it's done.

11/5/2016 7:30:57 PM

^^ Durham and Meck too.

Bodes well for HRC since she'll carry every educated county in NC but I haven't seen the rural counties yet..

[Edited on November 5, 2016 at 8:18 PM. Reason : Sorry, educated meaning high % of college ed... don't mean to sound condescending ]

11/5/2016 8:17:58 PM

I don't think 538 even looks at early voting

11/5/2016 10:21:24 PM