3

8/17/2008 12:40:45 PM

Interesting...

8/17/2008 1:02:24 PM

It sucks getting Florida leftovers but I will certainly welcome some tropical rain.

8/17/2008 4:13:03 PM

Tracks keep shifting eastward with each model run. Have to see how this thing starts interacting with the surface highs.

8/18/2008 9:03:24 AM

Yeah its pretty obvious its gonna hit SW florida now which wont allow it enough time over the water to get going real good. Now after looking at the models though Im wondering what the chances are this skirts across florida and back out into the atlantic. Seems like a lot of models have a tendency to send it back towards the coast.





[Edited on August 18, 2008 at 2:27 PM. Reason : .]

8/18/2008 2:19:30 PM

Yeah, recent model runs have suggested the high over the NE really intensifies, which would leave Fay in stall mode, kind of petering out over the coast of GA.

8/18/2008 2:42:46 PM

And people wonder why all tropical systems used to be names after women. They both are always playing with our emotions!

8/18/2008 3:45:12 PM

Currently a 10% chance of tropical storm winds from Fay in Raleigh, 13% in Charlotte, per the NWS

8/18/2008 3:53:56 PM

PLZ TO STAY ATTACHED TO MY HOUSE, ROOF

i'll take the petering rain over wind destruction

[Edited on August 18, 2008 at 3:56 PM. Reason : ]

8/18/2008 3:55:19 PM

Nice night in Sarasota, so far... Quiet and cool.
Just starting to feel a light breeze.
Peaceful.

8/18/2008 10:38:40 PM

How much is this storm gonna fuck up my week here on Hilton Head Island?

8/19/2008 2:37:30 AM

wonder how pwnt is hangin in around miami/ftl. knowing that fool, he's out in a boat just because.

8/19/2008 3:15:52 AM

Is it just me or does it appear to have become even better organized while over land, its at least maintaining its strength so far if it keeps up and gets some time back out over the ocean again could continue to be a real headache for northern florida.

8/19/2008 3:57:51 PM

Looks highly likely we will see a new TD if not Gustav by the end of the day, already appears to be wrapping itself up pretty nicely.

8/25/2008 9:28:37 AM

Grr I was hoping to head down to Florida to do some cave diving over Labor Day Weekend, but Fay has ruined those plans. Aside from any downed trees and all that, the increase in rain has made river levels rise quite high and most of the cave systems will be siphoning nasty river water.

8/25/2008 2:00:17 PM

Im headed down to St. Augustine this weekend for the long holiday. Luckily I wont be in any caves though so as long as they have power my trip is still on.

Gustav formed pretty quickly and will be interesting to watch how it goes this week. Models have it going north then turning a bit more west. If the center can avoid going right over cuba and getting torn apart and this thing slides into the gulf then watch out, it already appears much further along than fay was at this point in its journey.

[Edited on August 25, 2008 at 4:02 PM. Reason : abc]

8/25/2008 3:56:49 PM

8/26/2008 3:00:27 PM

Yep and thats the same model which came closest to getting Fay right which formed in the same general area. We will know a lot more later tomorrow when we see how its going to track in respect to Cuba. If it can stay well off the coast and over water and then gets pulled northward by the next trough then its a bad sign for all interests along the gulf. If the trough is weak and doesnt help move it more northerly then it will end up another of those storms that plows into mexico a few times.

8/26/2008 3:24:48 PM

its been a while since NC has had a good hurricane

8/26/2008 5:20:57 PM

To keep us all updated and shit

8/26/2008 6:39:13 PM

So I am supposed to be in St. Augustine over Labor Day weekend, looks like I should be spared from the brunt of any weather at this point but I cant help but wonder if its gonna hit within a few hours of there how antsy I will get to wanting to drive to near landfall to experience a monster storm in person. How dangerous could it be to find an empty mall parking lot somewhere and just camp out there haha

8/26/2008 6:41:17 PM

sweet

oil is going to skyrocket

8/26/2008 6:48:28 PM

Yep I plan on filling up tomorrow

8/26/2008 7:07:19 PM

Gustav didn't really form quickly it just took them a very long time to name it. By the time they called it a storm it was almost a hurricane. For some reason they have been a little slack this season in upgrading storms. Its almost like they are short a pilot or something lol. 00

[Edited on August 27, 2008 at 2:13 AM. Reason : also this thing is about to get into some waters with 900mb potential might as well put a pink circl]

[Edited on August 27, 2008 at 2:13 AM. Reason : cat 4 on saturday]

8/27/2008 2:11:10 AM

Track has slowly been shifting a bit more eastward, damn you Gustav if you ruin my florida trip!

8/27/2008 11:02:06 AM

all signs point to NO as a Cat 2-3

8/28/2008 3:11:59 AM

Things are starting to get fun out there

8/28/2008 8:17:01 AM

the three systems



Looks like th BOC one will move inland shortly.

[Edited on August 28, 2008 at 10:59 AM. Reason : w]

8/28/2008 10:59:35 AM

The models are also developing the next 3 systems set to come off africa so its definitely getting to be that time of year.

8/28/2008 3:26:44 PM

This one's even funnier:

8/28/2008 4:24:19 PM

holy at that model

NO would be done for.

thats ridiculous if that pattern follows

8/28/2008 4:57:03 PM

be careful with these models gusy, they are great tools for forecasting but should never be viewed as an actual forecast even if one got fay right. They have serious flaws in initial conditions and theres also just too much that can happen in five days. don't take the tracks they have seriously.

Hanna right now is undergoing a lot of sheer from an upper level low but in the next few days expect it to become pretty strong as it moves out of that. Another wave just came off of Africa and its looking good and theres another huge one right behind that.

8/28/2008 6:09:03 PM

8/28/2008 6:36:10 PM

Im pretty sure we all know how accurate the 5 day forecasts are, but agreed that model blasting LA twice is kinda spooky. Looks like the third one may be headed towards the east coast as well.

8/28/2008 6:41:52 PM

Hanna will probably be a fish for a while. Very weak steering currents there right now.

Gustav is going to be a beast, but I don't know about another hit on Louisiana. Seems like the default lately. Hopefully things will change.

8/28/2008 10:34:45 PM

Every time a storm whips in the Gulf, somebody projects it to hit us. After the 90s presented us with a slew of unfulfilled scares, Katrina really put people on their Ps & Qs. Either way, I hope this thing doesn't do any significant damage. I can't say I'd come back to New Orleans if it did.

8/30/2008 2:56:36 AM

$5 gas is not going to be fun at all

8/30/2008 9:11:54 AM

Quote :

"Every time a storm whips in the Gulf, somebody projects it to hit us."

well theres nowhere else for it to go

8/30/2008 12:06:00 PM

cat 4 while sitting over land!

could be up to Cat 5 sometime soon...NO is screwed if it comes thru

8/30/2008 5:37:20 PM

i ♥ hurricane season

8/30/2008 5:54:20 PM

could

if

8/30/2008 5:58:31 PM

what's the rolling eyes?

8/30/2008 11:38:42 PM

Yall think Gus will flood NO?

I dont, think it will be just far enough west to prevent that....hopefully, the levees can survive....they are better than Pre Katrina. If he goes a lil further east, then maybe they will not. It wasnt really the wind that caused the levees to fail...it was the surge. I think NO just got TS or maybe min cane with higher gusts during Katrina.

8/31/2008 12:36:56 AM

It's starting to get the comet look now, like there is some shear. Maybe that will help to break it up after it gets past the loop current?

8/31/2008 1:36:42 AM

still got plenty of time to recover tho, it got sheer from being over Cuba so long

TWC is predicting it to regroup and make Cat 5 by Sunday PM


I think it will jog a littttttle west, but im almost positive New Orleans is getting another wicked treatment.

thank God they are better prepared this time, but it still wont matter if its a semi close hit.

if thats the case I say just leave it under water. no need to spend billions reconstructing a death trap.

8/31/2008 1:47:30 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080831/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather;_ylt=AizOhtu20iJsg4iwfrYcKt1vaA8F

according to this katrina only killed 1600 people...i read on wiki once that it killed like 3300 people...kinda make me lol...


maybe bobby jindals kooky ass can perform a "hurricane exorcism" or some shit...

8/31/2008 5:58:08 AM

If it passes close enough to the west side of NO, NO is fucked. No two ways about it.

8/31/2008 11:05:30 AM

keep in mind katrina went to the east of no and all the flooding was caused by northerly winds ~80mph blowing the lake south into the city. They didn't really experience the kind of storm surge that is at stake right now and the mississippi also didn't flood at all. They are better prepared but will likely be dealing with onshore flow, surge and much higher winds this time. Only time will tell.

Quote :

"it got sheer from being over Cuba so long"

sheer is caused by upper level winds and some have been hitting it some from the south. It mostly weakened from being over cuba because of friction and being over land and not water.

Those winds are further to the south and won't be affecting it much more at all and there really isn't any possibility for shear after this. The ridge that was still over the se yesterday has died off so Gustave is pretty much the only show in town. That said its going to miss the warmest waters so cat 5 is probably out of the question and the 27 ft storm surge some people were predicting for ~new orleans is out with it. It will also, like Katrina probably weaken at the last minute if it gets up to 4 because of the much cooler pool of water in front of la. (from the mississippi?)

8/31/2008 12:13:02 PM

what time is the next update?

8/31/2008 1:14:14 PM

2pm then 5pm then 8pm then 11pm then 2am then 5am then 8am then 11am then 2pm EST

8/31/2008 3:26:23 PM