Quote :

"Well simple math dictates that the US won't be the most dominant economy in the 21st century and with waning economic dominance, there will be waning military dominance."

This seems to be the case. Will America collapse like Rome? Probably not. Will America decline like the British Empire? That is much more likely. Both empires were thought to be too big to fail. Time will tell.

Quote :

"I don't really know how one can compare the US to Rome. Our culture is far more advanced. Our communication is instant. Our Economy isn't based on the Iron Age We don't have power centralized in one figure that can lead to constant civil unrest for well over a century. I mean, Rome began to crumble with a succession of terrible emperors. We face no threat of invasion from an outside military. And Rampant inflation? Really? If anything, these articles indicate that general journalistic ability is the one aspect of society that has eroded terribly in the age of the 24 hour news cycle."

I agree with you in most regards here. Clearly, we are talking about completely different beasts in different times. The original point of the thread was really to analyze the common early warning signs before the demise of both empires. What you are doing, is what most posters have already done several times, you pointed out the vast differences without addressing the common underlying warning signs that lead up to the eventual demise of one of the world's greatest empires. For example, the decline in ethical principles abroad and at home, the increase of political lack of disrespect at home and abroad, the unpopular support of an arrogant military residing and occupying hostile distant lands. All of these elements entangled with the economic unreliability of the central government blocked Rome from escaping the downward spiral.

[Edited on January 5, 2009 at 7:41 AM. Reason : -]

1/5/2009 7:33:30 AM

Quote :

"Well simple math dictates that the US won't be the most dominant economy in the 21st century"

please to show us this math, since it's so simple.

1/5/2009 9:38:30 AM

well, the US Economy is something like 3x bigger than China's economy, even though we only have 1/4 the people.
However, China's economy has been growing at 10%/year for a decade now, which may slow down to 5-6% for the immediate future, until we get out of the current pickle the world is in. In the meantime, the US Economy is slowing down to nothing and will likely shrink for a couple years.

but the long term projections still show Chinas economy growing at such a rate that will surpass the US in the next couple/few decades. Given their enormous populatioin, their natural resources, and their heavy-handed government, there is no reason to think that trend will stop.

1/5/2009 10:06:17 AM

Quote :

"Will America decline like the British Empire? That is much more likely. Both empires were thought to be too big to fail. Time will tell."

I'm sorry, the british empire did not fail in the sense that the roman empire failed. Britain as a political force still exists and is in no danger of ceasing to exist. Britain is a nuclear state under no threat of invasion and posessing strong political and economic institutions.

Meanwhile, Roman Italy was surounded by comparatively armed barbarians, posessing a stagnant economy dependent upon the military domination of its neighbors for survival.

Quote :

"you pointed out the vast differences without addressing the common underlying warning signs that lead up to the eventual demise of one of the world's greatest empires. For example, the decline in ethical principles abroad and at home, the increase of political lack of disrespect at home and abroad, the unpopular support of an arrogant military residing and occupying hostile distant lands. All of these elements entangled with the economic unreliability of the central government blocked Rome from escaping the downward spiral."

And have nothing to do with America today. By all measures, American ethical principles have done nothing but improve from the lows of previous decades. Almost all measures of eithics have improved over the previous decades: tax evasion, violent crime, smuggling, etc. If it were not for the self imposed war on drugs the picture would be even better. And if you think political disrespect is high today, you need to look back to the 18th century when foreigners derided Americans as stupid. The early 20th when Europeans cosidered Americans lazy and soft. Try reading the vitriolic filth that passed for political dialog in 19th century American presidential campaigns. Similarly, the military expenditure is quite small relative to the American economy and entirely irrelevant: the American government is in Iraq because it feels like it; there is no chance that Angry Iraqi's are going to retaliate by sacking Washington. Even if they did, the decentralized nature of American society means it would probably be a boon to the nation being free from Washington's meddling for a few days.

1/5/2009 10:48:10 AM

Quote :

" what is it with these failed Euro powers? First Russia projects their failure to enforce their own Soviet Union on us, as if we're on the cusp of balkanization. Now the Brits are projecting their own failure to maintain a dominant global hegemony upon us, too. We Americans will refuse to be cowed into accepting their legacy of geopolitical impotence. Hell, we invented Viagra, motherfuckers. USA #1, bitches "

1/5/2009 11:36:12 AM

Alexis de Tocqueville -- “The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

Thomas Jefferson -- "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.”- “The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.”

Alexander Tytler -- "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."

1/5/2009 12:31:15 PM

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sfl-0209-obamaecon,0,4026446.story

Quote :

"Obama: We may be unable' to reverse the financial crisis if Congress doesn't act immediately. The President warned that without immediate action to deal with the nation's economic crisis, the country could sink into a crisis that at some point we may be unable to reverse. Making his case in the most dire terms, President Barack Obama said that if Congress does not quickly pass an economic stimulus package, the nation will slip into a crisis so deep that "we may be unable to reverse" it."

Quote :

"THREAD: America’s economic philosophy has led us towards an exponential international debt. Accepting the fact that health care expenses are growing, that savings rates and social security are crippled, and that our dependence on foreign lenders are rigid at best, no one should misunderstand the extreme economic crisis that we face. Our current philosophy in regards to the environment, energy, education, immigration, and Iraq are truthfully not working. We must make our financial system and our culture our highest priorities to stabilize America. Fear not, this crisis can be averted. Our only goal should be to halt our mistakes now before the impending dooms that destroyed Rome become American’s inescapable reality that inexplicably resembles history repeating itself."

Quote :

"Obama: These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights. Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met."

Quote :

"THREAD: We must leave Iraq, settle our debts, focus on the homeland, heal our international relations, regulate our financial system, re-establish our identity, and do it immediately."

Quote :

"Obama said that he has no doubts that "delay or paralysis" in Washington will deepen the country's crisis. "We can't afford to wait. We can't wait to see and hope for the best," Obama said."

[Edited on February 9, 2009 at 8:47 PM. Reason : -]

2/9/2009 8:28:20 PM

http://www.flixxy.com/political-systems.htm

2/9/2009 9:51:55 PM

Rome collapsed because a guy fell off his horse.

The Holocaust could have been prevented if this guy didn't die.

My history teacher said so.

2/10/2009 12:00:02 AM

I mean really you've pointed out nothing that helps your case here, stimwalt.

2/10/2009 5:51:25 PM

I'm sorry you feel that way, but unless you are going to provide me with something other than a blanket statement, I'm not going to take the bait. This thread is full of information describing the comparisons, including videos posted by others and myself. If you have read and watched everything within this thread, and still think that to be the case, defend your stance with examples refuting the premise.

2/10/2009 6:44:34 PM

Quote :

"Alexis de Tocqueville -- “The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money." "

Been trying to find the guy who wrote this for the longest time. Nice.

Quote :

"For example, the decline in ethical principles abroad and at home, the increase of political lack of disrespect at home and abroad, the unpopular support of an arrogant military residing and occupying hostile distant lands. All of these elements entangled with the economic unreliability of the central government blocked Rome from escaping the downward spiral. "

Gonna go with LoneSnark on this one - all of the problems listed are nothing new to the United States. Most of the wars fought my American have been unpopular, and the regular military has always been looked down upon until the 20th century. America has and always will be scorned politically by other powers, and it's also seen it's fair share of market crashes and economic instability. This is simply another case of the enxt generation screaming that we're all going to hell in a handbasket.

As far as the influence of America goes - have you lived in Europe recently? They follow American politics, watch American programs and movies, etc - not to say they have no culture of their own, but America does have a sizeable presence, even in this post Cold War era. Hell, when America's economy crashed, so did everyone else's. Like it or not, when the United States does something, it has big impact on the world.



[Edited on February 11, 2009 at 2:44 PM. Reason : ;]

2/11/2009 2:32:48 PM

Quote :

"Australia's government censors and bans more media than probably any other "western" nation."

Yeh, haven't they totally banned porn in Australia?

2/22/2009 2:04:35 PM