Why don't you just go ahead and state that you don't have any idea what you're saying in here and just save yourself the trouble of posting and us of reading.
11/14/2008 5:41:18 PM
I didn't realize you were suddenly an auto industry expert, whereas almost everyone else in this thread shares the same sentiments as me. Just stop trolling.
11/15/2008 1:48:15 AM
It is true that buyers should be reluctant to buy cars from bankrupt car-makers. However, this is a poor argument for keeping them out of bankruptcy. Afterall, people should be almost as reluctant to buy cars from a soon-to-be bankrupt car-maker. It seems to me, people might even feel better after a bankruptcy when they see that the dealerships are still there, warranties are still being honored, and news reports turn to scrapped contracts and improving financial conditions at GM for an emergence from bankruptcy. And, the auto industry failing is not even a possibility. More than half the auto industry is still profitable (mostly foreign owned manufacturers in the south), of the rest only GM is guaranteed to run out of money. And since it is the management that is at fault, bankruptcy is the perfect solution: the guilty management gets fired immediately. Of everyone at the company, they are the only ones guaranteed to lose their jobs in bankruptcy.
11/15/2008 10:15:03 AM
^I think that Chapter 11 is a bit of a red herring here. It is, in my opinion, very imprudent to go down the road towards bankruptcy if you are not prepared fro Chapter 7. There is nothing about GMs situation that make me confident they would be able to turn things around once in bankruptcy.As pointed out sales will be harder and its not exactly clear how they are going to get short term financing for operations. If the government is taking a hands off approach then that needs to be based on the notion that we are prepared for a liquidation of GM.
11/15/2008 6:59:15 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AD08120081116
11/16/2008 2:15:45 PM
^ It's idiotic to look at this from a jobs standpoint.It sucks badly that some of those people are going to lose their jobs, but bailing out the car companies is just a temporary patchwork solution. It's like trying to put a band-aid on a bullet wound.It might save jobs in the short term, but in the long term, it's going to force the cycle to repeat.
11/16/2008 2:21:52 PM
If the Big 3 were to fail. Would not something emerge that would take their place? I can't imagine that not being the case. You would have a ton of well trained workers, cheap equipment and space, preexisting distribution and supply network, etc. It would be an excellent opportunity to produce a trimmed down and efficient auto company.
11/16/2008 2:46:29 PM
as long as we're motherfalcon SUBSIDIZING cheap oil with our dollar and the blood of our young people, and as long as we're propping up wall street, it makes a lot of goddamned sense to prevent a half a million more households from losing a breadwinner, especially in the current job loss environmnent. put this $25 billion in context of the $700 billion (let alone the $100 billion that AIG alone needs). throw in the potential for deflation and its effects on worsening unemployment, and you see that at this time the bailout makes a shitload of sense.
11/16/2008 4:25:01 PM
That's a very reactionary point of view. It's usually best to take time and response to a crisis rationally and methodically, rather than react to it without thinking through long term consequences. Of course, this is our government we are talking about and politicians only deal in short term, politically expedient, solutions.
11/16/2008 4:46:04 PM
maybe the oil companies will be some sweeties and bail out the auto industries
11/16/2008 4:57:20 PM
Exxon has an after tax income of something like $40 billion / year. It would be a tall glass even for them.They can't borrow infinitely like our government.
11/16/2008 5:07:06 PM
^^^unless I'm missing something, since when is the US gov't subsidizing oil for us? What are you talking about?
11/16/2008 5:10:08 PM
11/16/2008 6:01:31 PM
^^ what happens to the current Saudi regime if we pull all our bases from that country?we don't call it a "subsidy", we call it "long term military presence", and its done out of necessity. that necessity can be made null through investment in technology here. it will take leadership that thinks past business as usual.btw, watch 60 minutes right now - Obama is on
11/16/2008 7:51:18 PM
11/16/2008 8:17:31 PM
^ Ah, but debt holders are not idiots. It is in their interest to keep the plants operating under chapter 11 until the recession ends and they can recoup all their principle from a controlled liquidation when conditions improve. In my uneducated opinion, unless things get substantially worse than they are, they are going to keep making cars.[Edited on November 16, 2008 at 9:06 PM. Reason : .,.]
11/16/2008 9:06:23 PM
11/16/2008 11:41:23 PM
My dad was in the special forces and he was deployed for two years to Canada. That said; while it should go unsaid, Saudi Arabia had no trouble defending its oil before America set up its bases in the early 90s.
11/17/2008 12:36:12 AM
^^^The question is whether or not that is possible.We have two big issues.1) GM does not have enough cash to fund operations. So its needs new funding which is very difficult for it to get at this point, in this credit market. So, it seems they are on the path to liquidation regardless. In a better credit market they could have junk bond issue or get some other type of Debtor-In-Possession financing. But its not clear where that will come from at this point.2) Bankruptcy filing will probably impact sales. My guess, though I am not sure, is that fleet sales are going to be rough in an environment where GM cannot guarantee warranties. Ultimately, warranty holders are unsecured creditors so they have to get in the back of the line.From the looks of it, GM is headed towards Chapter 7 unless they can get some type additional financing either from the government or elsewhere. Now, admittedly these types of predictions are hard, but the possibility seems real. At this point I tend to look at financing for GM as risk management.Now that is not to say that if GM gets financing from the Feds that we shouldn't take a pound of flesh in return. I would like to see everyone savaged. Shareholders wiped out. Wagoner fired. UAW contracts canceled. If possible I would like to see the interest payment to bondholders restructured. Though I am not sure what the legal possibilities are there.I'd like to see the government get warrants at $0.25 or so. Enough to ensure that virtually all the upside goes to taxpayers. If we make this thing painful enough I think we could minimize moral hazard.
11/17/2008 9:56:35 AM
You could always increase tariffs on foreign cars/offer tax breaks to those who buy US cars.
11/17/2008 10:10:21 AM
brilliant!
11/17/2008 10:14:00 AM
11/17/2008 10:22:03 AM
11/17/2008 12:29:34 PM
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/how-many-jobs-depend-on-the-big-three/
11/18/2008 2:38:18 PM
11/18/2008 3:08:34 PM
^So are you not aware that GM and Chrysler have been talking about merging for the last 2 months?Here's a good article from the WSJ that echoes my thoughts pretty well on why GM needs to file for Chapter 11:
11/18/2008 4:27:23 PM
not going to touch certain parts of this argument with a 10 foot pole with packs of rabid libertarians lurking about ready to turn the whole argument into a fight, BUT...Remember back in the 1970s when the steel industry was outclassed massively by European, Japanese, and eventually Korean steelmakers? Steel's a very energy-intensive product. Our mills (still to this day in some cases) were still running the old blast furnace technology while Europe and Asia, looking to regain lost ground, were building lower-capital electric arc furnaces. It was a more cost-effective method and everyone played along with it and eventually American steel companies could not compete in a cost-effective manner. Gradually we've adapted, but we aren't on top anymore and steel isn't what it used to be, but it's on very stable footing for having been shocked like that(this goes for southern cos. like Nucor and unionized cos. like USS).The Big 3 need to adopt the production practices of the successful companies. Management has to bring in more cost-effective production methods like the ones used in non-Big 3 factories.But then you say "oh, but would the unions cooperate?". Well, unions are a helluva lot more involved in politics and business in Japan and Europe. How do you think those companies were able to innovate and still have a union presence. Well, they have good labor relations and a culture of cooperation between the parties. In Germany, union reps get to sit in on board meetings and give input. In Japan, labor relations are built on a culture that already strives for harmony, and negotiations are hardly contentious.In summary, labor relations and industrial culture in the United States are F'd up the A.Then there's also the issue of health care costs being cheaper there, but that's an argument I'm not gonna touch right now.Oh, and let me go on record as saying that American cars, from strictly a stylistic, mechanical, and functional standpoint blow goats right now.Now commence explaining why American auto cos. would be fine if we killed the Wagner Act /strawman
11/18/2008 4:41:41 PM
^Yeah that new Malibu is a real POS. So is every Cadillac sold, oh yeah don't forget the Corvette, total shitbox. [Edited on November 18, 2008 at 11:01 PM. Reason : insightful post until you went outside your knowledge base.]
11/18/2008 11:00:44 PM
11/18/2008 11:51:26 PM
They should take the money the automakers are asking for and parlay it into a bullet train infrastructure.
11/19/2008 12:49:50 AM
they should take that 25 billion and do some kinda manhatten project thing where they figure out a cure for energy
11/19/2008 12:59:18 AM
11/19/2008 8:31:20 AM
I really dont know a lot how these bailouts work but my $.02 is this...it sucks for the automakers and the people who will lose their jobs, but we have to draw the line somewhere. are we going to bail out circuit city next? what if subway doesnt sell a lot of sandwiches?the American companies have an inferior business model and have gotten their asses kicked by the foreign ones. sometimes a forest fire is needed to re-grow the forest.
11/19/2008 9:07:46 AM
11/19/2008 10:18:46 AM
11/19/2008 11:23:36 AM
I found this on Facebook:
11/19/2008 2:18:14 PM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10448991/2/bears-roar-into-finish-dow-closes-below-8000.html
11/19/2008 5:07:07 PM
the abcnews vid...complete with videohttp://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/WallStreet/story?id=6285739&page=1of note is that even the ceo of Ford, doesn't drive one of his own crappy cars[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 5:33 PM. Reason : ]
11/19/2008 5:31:12 PM
so whats the deal with this?i keep hearing if they get the bailout nothing will change and they will be in the same position later...if they go bankrupt, they will restructure and not be so bad...i vote for that option
11/19/2008 5:42:29 PM
If they go bankrupt, they may be forced to liquidate. Also, unemployment would likely spike and the recession would worsen. It's not as simple as when the airlines went into Chapter 11.
11/19/2008 5:55:34 PM
^however I'm inclined to think that they can't survive without major restructuring of their labor union agreements. And with all the Pro-Union Democrats I DO NOT see that happening with a government bailout. Bankruptcy would SUCK, but it would probably be the bottoming out for the recession and as the companies reorganize life will be given back to the economy. Life that is sustainable.BTW did you guys know that every Chevrolet sold has a tire pressure monitoring system standard? I had no idea. I'm actually a little impressed that they went that extra mile for a feature that helps save a little gas mileage (since most people are too dumb to maintain correct pressure themselves).[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 7:16 PM. Reason : k]
11/19/2008 7:15:54 PM
They already had a major restructuring of their labor agreements, back in 2007. The problem for them is that it doesn't go into effect until 2010. Experts speculate that there will not be enough DIP financing available for these guys to emerge from a Chapter 11. Sure, plenty of big companies file for bankruptcy in recessions, but this is no ordinary recession. The credit crunch would likely doom them because all the money is on the sideline until people figure out which direction we are going.[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 7:24 PM. Reason : 2]
11/19/2008 7:23:26 PM
Then if they want to save their precious unions they need to change that 2010 date to January 2009.
11/19/2008 7:30:28 PM
11/19/2008 8:34:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/18/AR2008111803510.html?sub=new
11/19/2008 10:25:45 PM
^agreed to a degree. But enough with this FLEX-FUEL bullshit. Its a waste of everyone's time. Just stop already!
11/19/2008 10:34:15 PM
11/19/2008 10:45:30 PM
Let 'em burn and allow some foreign investors to restructure us.
11/19/2008 11:39:21 PM
11/19/2008 11:47:01 PM
- allow the companies to fail- but offer good credit terms to any company willing to buy the bankrupt companies- provide help to buyout pensions, any other help to get rid of pension obligations- deprecate the unions
11/19/2008 11:59:20 PM