page 3

Yes I am sorry I did not make that point in my post. I heard that on fox news sunday plus thats posted online and I did like that point and found it very valid.

6/16/2009 12:46:37 AM

^ But you'd give credit to Obama, not Bush, right?

6/16/2009 12:49:45 AM

Am I allowed to be glad that helped without being glad we went to iraq in the first place? If so, kudos to Bush. Thats how I view it.

6/16/2009 12:52:00 AM

Okay.

6/16/2009 12:53:52 AM

Quote :

"Starbucks' internet goes out through Iranian controlled networks just like everyone else."

wow...I hope you weren't seriously responding.

6/16/2009 12:58:06 AM

hooksaw and dnl: not everything is caused by american foreign policy.

6/16/2009 1:12:30 AM

^ My comments were within the context of addressing the "Bush broke the world" haters. It's becoming more and more apparent that Bush did nothing of the sort, and he is more responsible than anyone for spreading democracy in a region that many thought would never see it--the beginnings of the war in Iraq be damned.

6/16/2009 1:24:52 AM

iran should be a perfect example of how democracy doesn't mean anything in itself.

and i'm curious where ANYONE mentioned bush's foreign policy.

[Edited on June 16, 2009 at 1:27 AM. Reason : .]

6/16/2009 1:25:42 AM

cause=/influence

6/16/2009 1:26:59 AM

i'd say our help in fucking the economy did a lot more to spur unrest in iran than anything else. i'll give you that international sanctions probably helped as well.

but jesus. please. can we please keep this thread free of discussion of american politics? just ONE thread. this thread is about iran. if you're talking about america's response, cool. otherwise move it elsewhere.

[Edited on June 16, 2009 at 1:29 AM. Reason : .]

6/16/2009 1:28:28 AM

^ LOL! Unlike some of you, I have no trouble leaving a thread--I'll bow out.

But if you think Iran's politics operates beyond America's politics, then you're sadly mistaken. The politics of the two countries have been intertwined for decades, and I don't see this Gordian knot unwinding anytime soon.

6/16/2009 1:48:56 AM

^^ I'd say us helping overthrow their elected gov't probably has more to do with their unrest today than anything else. I'd also wager that our selling of weapons and material to Iraq during the 80s might have a bit to do with how they feel about us now, too.

Quote :

"our country had military and financial help from other countries without which we would have had a much harder time getting rid of the brits."

Come on. The frenchies didn't help us for any noble reasons. They fucking hated England, and they saw support for us as a way to hurt England. They probably expected us to collapse within a couple years and then they could could come in and mop up and reap the benefits.

6/16/2009 7:23:17 AM

Quote :

"According to the Cyrus News Agency, Tuesday morning 16 senior members of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were arrested. "These commanders have been in contact with members of the Iranian army to join the people's movement," CNA reports. "Three of the commanders are veterans of Iran-Iraq war. They have been moved to an undisclosed location in East Tehran.""

6/16/2009 12:44:41 PM

here's another great set of pictures, including from protests around the world
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_continued_election_turmo.html

6/16/2009 6:29:42 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBp2p3MGJqw

6/16/2009 6:38:31 PM

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/category/contentions/contentions?author_name=totten

http://raymankojast.blogspot.com/

This is an Iranian run website with information directly from inside Iran.

6/16/2009 9:47:05 PM

Quote :

"“I only want to speak about what I have witnessed. I am a medical student. There was chaos last night at the trauma section in one of our main hospitals. Although by decree, all riot-related injuries were supposed to be sent to military hospitals, all other hospitals were filled to the rim. Last night, nine people died at our hospital and another 28 had gunshot wounds. All hospital employees were crying till dawn. They (government) removed the dead bodies on back of trucks, before we were even able to get their names or other information. What can you even say to the people who don’t even respect the dead. No one was allowed to speak to the wounded or get any information from them. This morning the faculty and the students protested by gathering at the lobby of the hospital where they were confronted by plain cloths anti-riot militia, who in turn closed off the hospital and imprisoned the staff. The extent of injuries are so grave, that despite being one of the most staffed emergency rooms, they’ve asked everyone to stay and help—I’m sure it will even be worst tonight.”"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

[Edited on June 17, 2009 at 12:34 AM. Reason : link.]

6/17/2009 12:34:00 AM

I recall during the 2008 election cycle having an argument here about Obama's proposal to speak directly to Iran. My position was that it made no sense for a duly-elected American president to directly engage a figurehead puppet with no real power, as if he were an equal.

Robert Baer, former CIA operative, writes today:

Quote :

"Iran is not a theocracy. It is a military dictatorship headed by Khamenei and advised by a coterie of generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Army, as well as hard-liners in the secret police. Ahmadinejad is little more than the spokesman for this group. He may have a say in the day-to-day management of the economy and other parts of Iranian administration--but all important decisions, particularly those related to Iran's national security, including rigging presidential elections, are made by Khamenei."

(http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/06/16/khamenei-on-the-ropes.aspx, emphasis mine)

Obama made a fool of himself by suggesting that we talk directly to Iran because, as its own people now realize, its opacity makes such an approach illusory at best. There is no direct communication with an elite group of oligarchs whose end goal is to preserve their own power at any means necessary, up to and including shutting out their own people with direct lies and evasion from participatory government. How can we have an honest and meaningful dialogue with such a regime?

Baer concludes:

Quote :

"Still, if the protests and demonstrations in Tehran cannot be controlled, we should seriously start to wonder about Khamenei's future. Rafsanjani is rumored to be in the holy city of Qum plotting against Khamenei, seeing if he has enough votes in the 86-member Assembly of Experts to remove Khamenei."

The mechanics of the election -- to whatever degree it was rigged, or not -- don't matter.

What matters is that Iran is run by a secretive and elite group, and the test of their Supreme Leader today is how well he can maintain an iron grip on power. In Iranian politics, it seems increasingly obvious that is the only thing that matters.

6/17/2009 2:14:29 AM

Maybe the youth will learn how to make molotov cocktails and zip guns and wipe out the government.

Seriously though, it seems like there are a hell of a lot of people protesting. They're staying civil now, even though the government is beating/shooting many of them to death, but I wonder how long their patience will last.

6/17/2009 3:20:57 AM

This guy said. . .



. . .Our officers will crush any unrest.

--Esmaeil Ahmadi Moqaddam, Iran's national chief of police

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=7849084&page=1

Know what? With a hat like that, I damn sure believe he will try to crush any unrest.

6/17/2009 4:18:05 AM

That hat is massive.

6/17/2009 9:24:09 AM

That hat alone could crush any unrest.

6/17/2009 9:24:50 AM

Reminds me of the Iraqi Information Minister.

6/17/2009 10:01:15 AM

^^ lol

6/17/2009 1:49:21 PM

pretty funny cartoon about the protests:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200906u/iran-election-protests

6/19/2009 4:29:30 PM

So Khameini has spoken, endorsing the results and warning the protesters.

I guess the protests will just die down and the Irani people will have to learn to live with Ahmedinejad for another 4 (5?) years.

The revolution will have to wait until then.

6/19/2009 8:37:25 PM

it's starting to look like it

6/19/2009 8:42:29 PM

is it? the protests have been getting bigger by the day.

and apparently there was some tracking down of the basij militia people in their homes.

6/19/2009 9:40:46 PM

seems all there is now is lots of blood to go... though that doesn't look good for ahmenajad to mow everyone down or start taking relatives into custody

but i guess that is the course of most revolutions

6/19/2009 10:26:23 PM

hahaha that comic was good

6/19/2009 10:30:55 PM

This whole thing has CIA fabrication written all over it.

6/20/2009 5:55:34 PM

^Does it? What evidence do you base this comment on? Care to cite any similarities with other recent post election revolutions to bolster your claim?

6/20/2009 7:31:38 PM

^^Just like the holocaust.

6/20/2009 7:35:33 PM

saw a video today of a girl who had been shot in the chest and dies whilst people rush to help her. blood spews everywhere.

saw a video a couple days ago of a man who had been handcuffed and was still being beaten like a bag in his restraints. one of the riot policemen held his baton by the opposite end as to hit him with the pointed end of the handle and did so a number of times against the back of his shoulder.

these, other stories, and an understanding of all else that must be going on that hasn't been caught on camera or reported brings me to tears.

6/20/2009 10:25:32 PM

Freedom isnt free.

6/20/2009 10:32:13 PM

that'd be crazy if they're able to overthrow the President and the Supreme Leader.....
I guess they'd have to get through the army to do that, though, or some of the army would have to join the revolutionaries

Quote :

"[Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Khamenei has taken a radical risk. He has factionalized himself, so losing the arbiter’s lofty garb, by aligning himself with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against both Mir Hussein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the revolution. He has taunted millions of Iranians by praising their unprecedented participation in an election many now view as a ballot-box putsch. He has ridiculed the notion that an official inquiry into the vote might yield a different result. He has tried pathos and he has tried pounding his lectern. In short, he has lost his aura. The taboo-breaking response was unequivocal. It’s funny how people’s obsessions come back to bite them. I’ve been hearing about Khamenei’s fear of “velvet revolutions” for months now. There was nothing velvet about Saturday’s clashes. In fact, the initial quest to have Moussavi’s votes properly counted and Ahmadinejad unseated has shifted to a broader confrontation with the regime itself."

Quote :

"I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering. That commander talking about his family was not alone. There were other policemen complaining about the unruly Basijis. Some security forces just stood and watched. “All together, all together, don’t be scared,” the crowd shouted. I also know that Iran’s women stand in the vanguard. For days now, I’ve seen them urging less courageous men on. I’ve seen them get beaten and return to the fray. “Why are you sitting there?” one shouted at a couple of men perched on the sidewalk on Saturday. “Get up! Get up!” Another green-eyed woman, Mahin, aged 52, staggered into an alley clutching her face and in tears. Then, against the urging of those around her, she limped back into the crowd moving west toward Freedom Square. Cries of “Death to the dictator!” and “We want liberty!” accompanied her. There were people of all ages. I saw an old man on crutches, middle-aged office workers and bands of teenagers. Unlike the student revolts of 2003 and 1999, this movement is broad."

Quote :

"I’d say the momentum is with [the protestors] for now. At moments on Saturday, Khamenei’s authority, which is that of the Islamic Republic itself, seemed fragile. The revolutionary authorities have always mocked the cancer-ridden Shah’s ceding before an uprising, and vowed never to bend in the same way. Their firepower remains formidable, but they are facing a swelling test."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/opinion/21tehran.html?_r=1

6/20/2009 10:46:46 PM

Quote :

"Freedom isnt free."

I've never really liked that saying...
Fascism isn't free, either. Fancy black uniforms, cool hats, and secret police enforcers would cost a shitload of money.

I know it's trying to convey the point that sometimes people have to sacrifice or die for the cause of freedom, but it just kind of falls flat.

6/21/2009 2:10:46 AM

Herpes are free.

6/21/2009 10:22:53 AM

Quote :

"iran should be a perfect example of how democracy doesn't mean anything in itself. "

I'd say that America is a better example of the limitations inherent to democracy.

Democracy isn't what's screwing Iran up--it's the stifling of it.

On the other hand, allowing every ignorant dumbass on the street an equal vote causes huge problems in America. The problem is that there isn't a better solution that I'm aware of.

6/21/2009 11:11:30 AM

^

Even if the clerics had the most open and transparent system of elections in the world, free of stifling influences, Iran still wouldn't be a democracy, or anything close to it. It's my understanding that in a democracy, the people are the primary source of power and sovereignty. In Iran, no matter how many elections they hold, there is still some source of power -- the so-called Supreme Leader -- to whom the people are subjugated.

These elections really show how dangerous it can be to give people the illusion of democratic power. When their candidate wins, great. But if their candidate loses, then there's always sufficient room to doubt the outcome because some power greater than the people controls the electoral process.

In a functioning democracy, people have to have faith in the process as much as in the results. There has to be transparency. There have to be rules, designed by the people who vote in the election, as to how it proceeds. There has to be a system -- no matter how slow or byzantine, as Minnesota shows us -- for providing ultimate veracity to the results.

Iran can never provide any of that, not even down to the most basic level. Because every single element is subject to short-circuiting by a higher authority than the people -- or the perception of it, which is effectively the same thing.

6/21/2009 12:59:43 PM

Quote :

" In Iran, no matter how many elections they hold, there is still some source of power -- the so-called Supreme Leader -- to whom the people are subjugated."

yeah, especially given the name of the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran, implying that even above the Supreme Leader, the religion of Islam is dominant.

On here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran it doesn't say anything about the Supreme Leader being "divine" or having a mandate from God, or even a direct line to God (like the Pope), but the title itself certainly implies some kind of divinity.

Reading the Supreme Leader's responsibilities doesn't really leave much hope for the country as anything other than a Dictatorship/Theocracy

Quote :

"The Supreme Leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, which is also in charge of overseeing the Supreme Leader, and also has the power to dismiss him. As the name indicates, the Supreme Leader is considered as the ultimate head of the Iranian political and governmental establishment, above that of Iran's president. According to the constitution, he has the last say in internal and foreign policies, control of all of the armed forces (Army, Revolutionary Guards, Police), and control of state broadcast and others (see below). The head of the Judicial branch (in Persian: ??? ??????) is also directly appointed by him. The President of Iran, who is elected by universal suffrage, is the Executive President (Head of government). In 1989, the Prime Minister's office was merged with the President's office to form the current post of President of Iran. However, certain executive powers, such as command of the armed forces and declaration of war and peace, remain in the hands of the Supreme Leader.[5] Furthermore the Supreme Leader may even dismiss the president and prevent the legitimation of any law (appointed by assembly) by the institutions under his control, the Guardian Council and the Expediency Council."

6/21/2009 1:05:56 PM

the iranian president is ultimately a powerless figure head present to give the people an illusion of democracy which is why even if mousavi were elected nothing would change.

shit, he had to pass an ideological and political litmus test to even be allowed to run.

that's change the iranians can believe in!

[Edited on June 21, 2009 at 1:14 PM. Reason : .]

6/21/2009 1:11:30 PM

This is how the protests can have an effect:

If the protesters keep protesting, a few people keep dying, the Supreme Shithead gets tired of it, and orders the forces to crack down hard shooting people on sight. Then, his forces of thugs might revolt, saying they won't kill their own people en masse. The Supreme Shithead might call for some unity government in that case, or call fresh elections, or even step down himself.

But before that happens, the people will give up protesting, I think.

6/21/2009 6:52:47 PM

Sadly I think that too. I really hope we are wrong though.

6/21/2009 7:02:22 PM

I hope so too. But, if the protests yield nothing, and if a conservative is elected again after4 years, the protests then would definitely give rise to a proper revolution, no doubt about it.

6/21/2009 7:27:18 PM

Quote :

" If the protesters keep protesting, a few people keep dying, the Supreme Shithead gets tired of it, and orders the forces to crack down hard shooting people on sight. Then, his forces of thugs might revolt, saying they won't kill their own people en masse. The Supreme Shithead might call for some unity government in that case, or call fresh elections, or even step down himself. But before that happens, the people will give up protesting, I think."

I believe with what you said for the most part, but here are some points i'd like to change:

Quote :

"his forces of thugs might revolt, saying they won't kill their own people en masse"

First it should be illustrated what various "forces" exist.

If you don't go to college, for whatever reason, you are required to either 1) pay your way out of military service (which is very expensive now adays), or 2) join military for several ears and do a number of public work services and/or be part of the police force.

the police force works like this:

You have an officer (middle aged, sometimes pro-government but not always) and he's usually in charge of up to about 5 military servicemen (the youth that for one reason or another couldn't do to college).

they way it all goes down is the officer is in charge of the servicemen and gives them orders on what to do. if they refuse to carry out an order, they're usually punished and thrown in jail or something of the sort.

Now, these servicemen are the youth. In the case of these elections, the overwhelming majority of these youngins have been told to do things against their will. (beating/arresting protesters, vandalism of civilian property, etc). The protesters know that these servicemen aren't out to get them with a vengeance, there was a picture on CNN last week that showed a protester dragging a military servicemen to safety and first aid after he had crashed his motorbike.

in this video you can see how the people bond with the police (2 officers in light green and a military servicemen in dark green on the far right). They know that they're just out there to follow orders and make the distinction between who their enemy is and who is just caught in the middle. towards the end of the video you can hear the recorder say to the police "dametoon garm" which directly translates to "warm breath" but means "may you live":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXBjOkfzw9Q

Now, on the other hand, you have the Basiji which i'm sure all of you have heard of. These men (i use the term very loosely) are loyal followers of the hardliners and were intimately pro-revolution 30 years ago when they overthrew the Shah. They have long lost their touch with any since of humanity and live to please the Ayatollah and follow him blindly. These are the disgusting bastards that hunt the peaceful civilians hidden from afar and call themselves people afterwards. These people are the enemy.


So really it comes down to the majority of the government (the people with most power in gov't anyway), the military servicemen that actually support the gov't, and the basiji VS. the common man. The odds aren't in the least bit favorable for the protesters, but they're fueled by the superior hatred of the pigs that have been ruining their chance of a prosperous life for the past 30 years. They're tired of it and they know that it is possible to make a difference through their demonstrations. It's how these bastards came to power in the first place.

making any significant changes in the way the country is run an overwhelming endeavor, but the youth have the wind at their backs and i'm absolutely sure that something very positive will come from this election fallout.

i seem to have lost track of the points i was going to make but i'll answer another point briefly.

Quote :

"The Supreme Shithead might call for some unity government in that case, or call fresh elections, or even step down himself."

There's no way the ayatollah is going to step down. He's going to have to be killed before that happens.

Quote :

"If the protesters keep protesting, a few people keep dying, the Supreme Shithead gets tired of it, and orders the forces to crack down hard shooting people on sight"

From what i've seen, CNN has been shy to report the massive number of deaths since yesterday. I talked to my cousins and a couple friends last night and they all say there's been a very significant increase in the frequency of civilians being shot in the streets over the past 2 days, it's gotten to the point that if you approach a basiji base it's guaranteed that someone is going to get shot.

hopefully i didn't ramble too much or lose sight of what i said i would cover at the beginning of this post.

6/21/2009 8:42:53 PM

A good read on CNN about a phone interview with an Iranian student protestor.

Quote :

"Iranian protestor pleads for U.S., world to intervene Posted: 09:45 AM ET American Morning - amFIX Filed under: Iran A picture obtained on June 21, 2009 shows Iranian riot police on a street of Tehran on June 20, 2009. An Iranian student protestor in Tehran made a passionate plea for help from the world community this morning in a phone call to CNN’s “American Morning.” For safety reasons, CNN can only identify the student by his first name, Mohammed. He’s been a part of the protests and a target of the violence there. Below is an edited transcript of the interview. John Roberts: What is the scene like on the streets? Are there more demonstrators out there on the streets? Or is it much quieter than it has been in recent days? Mohammed: Hello. Actually I participated in Saturday’s demonstrations in parts of Tehran. What I saw, I saw thousands of security officers that tried to break up the crowd. They used canisters and batons and water cannons against us. They attacked us. And we also in response attacked them. We attacked them by throwing stones. And we built trenches in the streets… Roberts: So there was quite a large confrontation going on there over the weekend. But can you tell us what the scene is like on the streets today? Mohammed: Today was a long day in Tehran. And yesterday there weren’t any organized rallies in Tehran. Because we take orders from our leader…Mr. Mir Hossein Moussavi. The connections, the communication is very difficult, more than even you can imagine in Tehran. But I myself haven’t received any orders from our leaders yet. But as soon as I get any order, I will participate in any demonstration that they tell us. Kiran Chetry: When you say receiving orders, tell us how the protests are organized. How are you guys called to go and where? Mohammed: Actually, I’m a regular person. I’m not behind the scenes. I cannot tell you exactly how these demonstrations are organized. But as I know, as people said, there is a council, a group of Iranian reformists who organize these demonstrations and they tell us in any way that they could and we just follow. Chetry: Do you get it on your cell phone, text messages, are you able to use the internet? Mohammed: Actually, they reduce the internet speed. We have severe problems with the messenger software and every software like messengers. This is arranged by making calls, messages, calls to his friends or her friends and try to gather as much to tell as he or she can. Roberts: Mohammed, we have been talking this morning about what the students are fighting for and whether the students are fighting for something different than the older more established political candidates like Moussavi. Are the students seeking regime change? Are they looking to bring down the Ayatollah and completely change the form of government there in Iran? Or are you looking for – as has been suggested – more civil rights, more freedoms within the context of the existing regime? Expert: Protestors want civil rights, not revolution Mohammed: Yes. Let me tell you something. For about three decades our nation has been humiliated and insulted by this regime. Now Iranians are united again one more time after 1979 Revolution. We are a peaceful nation. We don’t hate anybody. We want to be an active member of the international community. We don’t want to be isolated… We don’t deny the Holocaust. We do accept Israel’s rights. And actually, we want — we want severe reform on this structure. This structure is not going to be tolerated by the majority of Iranians. We need severe reform, as much as possible. Roberts: Interesting perspective this morning from Mohammed, a student demonstrator there in Tehran. Mohammed: Excuse me, sir. I have a message for the international community. Would you please let me tell it? Roberts: Yes, go ahead. Mohammed: Americans, European Union, international community, this government is not definitely — is definitely not elected by the majority of Iranians. So it’s illegal. Do not recognize it. Stop trading with them. Impose much more sanctions against them. My message…to the international community, especially I’m addressing President Obama directly – how can a government that doesn’t recognize its people’s rights and represses them brutally and mercilessly have nuclear activities? This government is a huge threat to global peace. Will a wise man give a sharp dagger to an insane person? We need your help international community. Don’t leave us alone. Chetry: Mohammed, what do you think the international community should do besides sanctions? Mohammed: Actually, this regime is really dependent on importing gasoline. More than 85% of Iran’s gasoline is imported from foreign countries. I think international communities must sanction exporting gasoline to Iran and that might shut down the government. "

http://amfix.blogs.cnn.com/2009/06/22/iranian-protestor-plea/

6/22/2009 12:12:03 PM

wow...that's pretty crazy!!

6/22/2009 1:24:06 PM

not too hard to see the main differences between the protestors and the gov't supporters

protesters - young, partially English-speaking, tech-savvy, men and women:





gov't backers - bearded Muslim men:




http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/a_troubled_week_in_iran.html

6/22/2009 2:29:25 PM

Call me crazy, but I see plenty of young men in both pictures. In fact, both crowds look about the same (note the last picture is out of place).

6/22/2009 7:30:26 PM