Quote :

"It doesn't need a coldfront to turn. That called front stalled near canada has no affect on the track of this storm. The steering currents generally always pick up and take things east as lititude increases. 99% of hurricanes eventually make the curve. It would take a freak setup for it not to."

You uh...you come up with that all by yourself?



[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 8:08 AM. Reason : page 2 says Dare County is being evac]

9/2/2010 8:07:21 AM

Everyone should know that. Prevailing westerlies in the midlatitudes is pretty much middle school earth science.

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 8:15 AM. Reason : but ya. i pulled the % out of my ass. you get the point (or should)]

9/2/2010 8:14:49 AM

I was obviously talking about expediting the NNE movement, which the front coming in would have helped with. It's not going to help the folks out there if he turns with the eyewall 30 miles from shore!

And if it has nothing to do with the timing and degree of the NNE curve then why was everyone and their mother on every weather channel talking about it? I'm certainly no meteorologist but I have eyes and ears.

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 8:51 AM. Reason : yeah, def looks like it's moving almost due north now]

9/2/2010 8:37:30 AM

Well the good news is it is definitely moving at least constantly NNW now. As said the front was the whole reason everyone had it pushing out to sea. Now with that stalled its just riding around the high pressure so whether it manages to start pulling east before reaching the OBX remains to be seen. Im guessing we arent gonna know just how close its gonna come until very late tonight and hopefully for all those people who decided to ride it out this thing does in fact turn.

9/2/2010 8:42:55 AM

145 mph if this thing DOESNT turn, NC coast is gonna be a horror scene.

9/2/2010 8:50:58 AM

Oh and for mambagrl

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/09/01/1803882/gathering-storms-with-earl-fiona.html?asset_id=1800792&asset_type=gallery

Quote :

"The National Hurricane Center expected the 135-mph storm to spin close to the coast by late Thursday as a major storm, then veer off and skirt the coast on up to the Canadian Maritimes, gradually weakening along the way. Bill Read, the hurricane center director, said he was confident that Earl would turn when a cold front pushes across the East Coast, forcing Earl out. But the timing of that turn was going to be a close call, he said, particularly for the Outer Banks of North Carolina."

What does the NHC director know, though? Clearly some random troll on TWW knows better...

9/2/2010 8:55:23 AM

Well at the very least the southern beaches look like they will be able to avoid most of the worst of it barring some ridiculous wobble. The rest of them should all get out on the beach and start blowing real hard hoping to get that thing moving east haha.

9/2/2010 8:57:26 AM

Quote :

"we arent gonna know just how close its gonna come until very late tonight..."

Yup.



Currituck Co's evacuation order came at 8:30 this morning

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 9:02 AM. Reason : .]

9/2/2010 8:59:27 AM

If only today were Friday... I'd be heading down to the coast immediately after work well at least until I ran into people saying I wasnt allowed to go any further. My boss didn't go for the idea of taking Friday off to put myself in harms way of a natural disaster... who would have figured? haha

9/2/2010 9:11:43 AM

Lots of amateur meteorology up in here...I like it.

9/2/2010 10:28:12 AM

^^ I couldn't get out of work either.

9/2/2010 10:57:05 AM

Latest model shows it pushing even farther off the coast. Looks like we may be dodging this bullet.

9/2/2010 11:06:04 AM

Hell, how much more dodging do you want? The eye was already slated to be like 30-40 miles offshore.

9/2/2010 11:19:46 AM

Thats actually one of the things I dislike about broadcast meteorology. Their job with the public is to dumb down the science far enough so that hicks in Eastern NC can have some idea of what the situation is. Hurricane steering is a lot more complex than surface winds. If I had time, I would find you events where tropical cyclones went straight into cold fronts.

This is a historical plot of just the major storms that were in the same spot as Earl. Its no coincident that all the tracks look similar. If I plotted every storm it would be more convincing. Almost all of them veer off to the east quicker and quicker as they increase latitude. There are exceptions but this is the rule. There isn't a heroic coldfront sweeping in everytime either.

Furthermore, if you were to look solely at surface features for the steering of Earl. It would clearly get caught in the clockwise winds that wrap around the high pressure centered over West Virginia.
This would steer Early to the SOUTHWEST which is 180 degrees off from the truth. Its not as simple as surface winds because tropical cyclones are thick.

Looking at the winds from the front at the steering levels, you can clearly see they are not affecting Earl. In fact, they die well northwest ny pennsylvania and ohio.

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 11:34 AM. Reason : that cold front in canada turning fiona as well?]

9/2/2010 11:28:40 AM

Are the 3 westernmost ones Katrina, Hugo and Floyd

9/2/2010 11:38:56 AM

curfew in EI at 8pm

9/2/2010 11:55:46 AM

Hi, broadcast meteorologist here! Issue #1: It's not the cold front that is causing this storm to make it's turn to the right. Plenty of tropical systems have formed off the remains of a dying front. It's a combination of the upper high to its east breaking down a bit and the upper level 500 mb trough (which will bring stronger steering winds out of the southwest) that is causing this system to turn away from the coast.

And I realize I'm probably getting trolled, but Issue #2: I have to dumb the science down quite a bit for people to understand what the hell I'm talking about or else they won't watch! You have to realize that much of the wording in a newscast in catered to a 3rd grade level. Nobody understands jet streaks, positive vorticity advection, or dryline dynamics. Sometimes you just have to make an analogy to something most people have dealt with to have it make sense. And here's another point: I sometimes just have 3 minutes to get my point across. With a situation that is setting up to be potentially dangerous (not current, ongoing dangerous situation), we aren't going to spend a lot of our time discussing how things work. We'll talk about what is influencing our thoughts in the forecast, but not going to break down every little bit of the dynamics. We're all about who is it going to affect, what is it going to do, and when is it going to happen. That is essentially all the general public wants to know.

We do a lot of public appearances to more deeply discuss what goes into a lot of the dynamics of tornadoes and hurricanes. I'm out here in SW Oklahoma, and most of our winter and early spring is filled with talks to the families on the military base, school talks, large business talks, and even talks along with reps from the NWS in Norman. We'll even put stuff on our website for people to better understand what we are talking about. If you have any questions about how we run things, just ask.

9/2/2010 12:09:34 PM

tl;dr

nah, jk.

9/2/2010 12:13:03 PM

Quote :

"Nobody understands jet streaks, positive vorticity advection, or dryline dynamics."

Those people should be cast out of society.

Wait, I take it back. We already have enough armchair meteorologists equipped with their paltry knowledge from The Weather Channel as it is. No sense in making them think they know what they hell they're talking about even more. [/smug]

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 12:15 PM. Reason : .]

9/2/2010 12:13:50 PM

She hit a nerve! Sorry, Senez! Haha

9/2/2010 12:14:36 PM

broadcast mets...always good for a laugh. lol

9/2/2010 12:16:04 PM

This graph shows a bunch of near hits, but the three storms that went mainland were monsters - Andrew, Hugo, and Fran.

9/2/2010 12:17:10 PM

^^Sick burn! (But true)

Quote :

"Oh by the way, I really enjoy your weather reports!"

^I went through the eye of two of those! Wooty Woo!

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 12:19 PM. Reason : .]

9/2/2010 12:17:59 PM

Quote :

"broadcast mets...always good for a laugh. lol"

Thanks, o' gracious TA! Glad I could give you your laugh for the day!

9/2/2010 12:26:43 PM

haha, it's not your version of the broadcast met that bothers me.

it's the MS State type...or the reporter turned weathercaster...

The Durka Durs of TV Weather

9/2/2010 12:32:52 PM

Quote :

"The Durka Durs of TV Weather"

Hahaha. You, sir, made me morning. May I borrow this in the future? Oh lawd, I can only imagine what you guys think of us folks who do the weather observations.

9/2/2010 12:41:37 PM

Strombone, don't take me the wrong way. I understand why you guys have to dumb it down and it is a very important thing that has to be done to get the required information to the class, as you said. I also understand braodcast meteorologist know the science these days (unless of course you work in sourthern cal, then you're just a pretty face and a durka dur)

I was simply saying that for NYM410 and Jax883 to understand how a troll on TWW could "know more than the director of nhc"

9/2/2010 1:19:46 PM

Still moving NNW. Currently weakening, but expected to be undergoing ewrc. Expected to reorganize and strengthen when it hits the gulf stream.

9/2/2010 2:14:39 PM

im just waiting for word of a westerly wobble.

prolly wont happen but...we shall see.

9/2/2010 2:20:04 PM

According to stormpulse, the 2pm update shows it moving due north at 18mph.

9/2/2010 2:21:02 PM

Pretty much all major outlets are saying N, but the numbers show NNW.

.8N and .4W in the last 3 hours

Strengthening could allow for a western jog.

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 2:25 PM. Reason : ]

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 2:27 PM. Reason : ]

9/2/2010 2:24:54 PM

I felt some hurricane raindrops a few moments ago

9/2/2010 3:25:54 PM

Sheraton Pier

9/2/2010 3:45:06 PM

Is it supposed to look like that?

9/2/2010 3:55:43 PM

Do not lie, Sawahash, you broke that pier yourself simply by walking on it

9/2/2010 3:57:02 PM

^^^did this storm cause that or was it previous damage?

9/2/2010 4:00:35 PM

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 4:23 PM. Reason : ]

9/2/2010 4:09:14 PM

http://www.nagsheadpier.com/piercam.htm

camera already got knocked around a bit

9/2/2010 4:10:03 PM

Judging from what I see looks like eastward motion has already begun which means everyone should be alright now. OBX looks like its gonna get one good band here in a bit but that will probably be the worst that it sees. Dodged a bullet on this one.

9/2/2010 4:26:06 PM

looks like its going more NW now instead of north

9/2/2010 5:00:34 PM

^^The OBX will likely take a pretty good beating even with just a slight brush

9/2/2010 5:24:42 PM

^^ Im assuming you meant to say NE?

9/2/2010 6:04:48 PM

It's been wobbling back and forth between NNW and NNE and will probably continue to do so for a little bit.

9/2/2010 6:10:11 PM

The damage was from the storm. I walked out on it this morning and it was fine.

9/2/2010 7:12:30 PM

I'm a meteorologist working for a leading ship routing company. I came across a vessel today that wanted to pass east of Cape Hatteras just as the storm passes. Needless to say, I immediately sent a message telling him to shelter in Chesapeake Bay.

It's been a hell of a week, as there have been up to 7 tropical systems all over the world.

9/2/2010 7:20:28 PM

Quote :

"I'm a meteorologist working for a leading ship routing company. I came across a vessel today that wanted to pass east of Cape Hatteras just as the storm passes. Needless to say, I immediately sent a message telling him to shelter in Chesapeake Bay."

I don't suppose you're allowed to say "Sure, go for it. But you're the only acceptable loss - the ship and its contents must remain safe", eh?

9/2/2010 8:04:52 PM

I can report first hand that Earl has produced overhead surf in the Wrightsville beach area.

9/2/2010 8:36:35 PM

Frisco pier seems like it'll not survive the rest of the storm.

9/2/2010 8:53:57 PM

^^^Well, we can't really make a ship master sail on a certain route, just "very strongly recommend" and advise what he would expect if he does go along his intended route (mentioning damaging conditions, etc.). If they still refuse, we just gladly send a message to the client/shipping company to let them know that one of their ships decided to go "Perfect Storm" style.

[Edited on September 2, 2010 at 9:39 PM. Reason : ]

9/2/2010 9:38:44 PM

barely drizzling in New Bern now..

9/2/2010 10:34:55 PM