Savannah is on the list of US cities who are overdue for a hit. If it holds the current predicted path then maybe we can mark them off the list.

8/22/2011 10:18:03 AM

Savannah isn't technically a coastal city.

8/22/2011 10:30:36 AM

projecting it to make more of a turn today than they did yesterday.

Should be interesting. I have a flight this weekend I HAVE to make so we will see how this affects it.

8/22/2011 12:07:33 PM

Quote :

"Bring it on, we could use some good rain in Raleigh"

Eff you guys.

Growing up near Wilmington when we got hit with Bertha, Fran, etc...fuck hurricanes.

Now living and being a homeowner on the Charleston peninsula...fuck hurricanes even more.

8/22/2011 12:26:45 PM

So is this something to be worried about?

8/22/2011 12:27:41 PM

Quote :

"Now living and being a homeowner on the Charleston peninsula"

cant blame us for you choosing to live there.

with that said...i dont want winds, just the rain.

8/22/2011 12:28:50 PM

^^^Yeah, I don't get the disappointment when one misses us and excitement when we're right in the path mentality.

I've got some large oak trees that are sure to come down - our house surely wouldn't survive. I'd rather have a dead lawn and a house than a tree down and... some really green weeds

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 12:30 PM. Reason : -]

8/22/2011 12:29:21 PM

I love WRAL. Hurricane could 'clip' north carolina. They act like landfall isnt even possible, and the worst we'll get it a little wind and rain. Bozos

8/22/2011 12:37:33 PM

Well, the worst thing they could do is tell you it's coming for us.

There'd be no bread or milk anywhere. Old Hazel will peel her '84 cadillac out of the garage and kill 100 people trying to get to the grocery store.

8/22/2011 12:58:36 PM

^^Yeah, at this rate the eye will pass over Raleigh.

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 12:59 PM. Reason : -]

8/22/2011 12:59:43 PM

well great. maybe it will rip my roof off and my insurance company will replace it for me.[sarcasm]

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 2:20 PM. Reason : ]

8/22/2011 2:20:01 PM

I find it interesting that a lot of model guidance is forecasting it to make more of a turn, curve out to sea, and not make landfall, yet, the hpc cone from 2pm today shows it hitting near charleston. I still stand firm on my earlier prediction of it skirting by our coast, if not missing it altogether.

8/22/2011 2:59:53 PM

Ehh...I wouldn't say a lot.

The 4 respectable models are split. 2 make landfall and 2 skirt the coast.

You're still at day 5, too. The sharp north to northeasterly turn that's being exhibited is a little difficult to believe right now.

8/22/2011 3:11:55 PM

^^^ If it does come here, I am coming to your house so we can resume our decade long debate....in the dark! And then once the power is restored we can have a Star Trek marathon and eat pizza!

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 3:12 PM. Reason : .]

8/22/2011 3:12:07 PM

I live in Carolina Beach and if this thing is going to make landfall I'm not sure if I will hold tight and ride it through or flee inward to wait it out. What are all yall coastal residents doing? Ride out the storm or pack your shit and head inland?

8/22/2011 3:13:43 PM

If it's a Cat 3 or below and given that it's coming up from SC you're probably fine just riding it out if you like storms.

8/22/2011 3:18:34 PM

^^^

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 3:19 PM. Reason : ]

8/22/2011 3:19:03 PM

Come on Irene - Daddy needs a new roof and windows.

8/22/2011 3:24:28 PM

It it goes more eastward towards the NC coast (I live in Morehead City / Atlantic Beach area) then I'll probably help my family get out of there, except my dad who is a radio broadcaster and has to work during storms. Anyway, Cat 3s aren't joking.

8/22/2011 3:32:40 PM

Will be interesting to see if the models keep trending further to the east

8/22/2011 4:00:06 PM

I hope it does..any other weekend (except for Labor Day..that weekend is important too) and I wouldn't care. Please go east.

8/22/2011 4:01:14 PM

I think the majority of the time as soon as they start trending the models east this far out it's safe to assume this will be curving out to sea.

8/22/2011 5:12:06 PM

^I notice this as well. I pulled up the historical data based on the position of the storm a couple days ago, and the storms that were within 25 nautical miles of its current position often did the same thing.

8/22/2011 6:35:53 PM

Really always depends on the fronts that are in the southeast at the time...the trade winds have a little to do with it as well.

This one seems to have a weak front trying to push it as it gets later in the week...so we shall see.

(at least this is what i heard on TV all day today)

8/22/2011 7:10:46 PM

according to the google earth hurricane hunters thing...the pressure is WAY down which means its strengthening.

pretty cool that you can follow them on GE

Cat 2 now

[Edited on August 22, 2011 at 7:59 PM. Reason : g]

8/22/2011 7:50:55 PM

Yeah we should see some pretty good intensification over the next 48 hours or so then everyone will panic, buy out all the bread and milk, get home, turn on tv, then see its actually headed out to sea and now they are gonna have milk sandwiches for the next week.

8/22/2011 7:53:05 PM

can you meteorological types help me track Invest 98? I am supposed to go to St Maarten on 9/11/11....its going to cut it close

8/22/2011 8:09:22 PM

i will never understand why people go out of their way to buy things that will spoil if they lose power

8/22/2011 8:18:44 PM

Yeah, if anything I'm trying to eat all the freezer food before the storm hits.

8/22/2011 8:29:57 PM

Intensity forecast bump but no real eastward shift this time around, will see how things look in the morning

8/22/2011 8:55:48 PM

18Z GFS is slower and slightly farther inland in NC.

8/22/2011 9:09:05 PM

translation to english?

8/22/2011 9:10:05 PM

the current run of the GFS weather model shows it slowing down and coming further inland into NC than the last run

8/22/2011 9:10:41 PM

The latest run of a good model suggests landfall overnight Sat. into Sun with center just west of OBX

8/22/2011 9:11:22 PM

these storm tracks always drift farther and farther east. happens every time.

8/22/2011 9:44:00 PM

And there begins the northeastward curve to the forecast haha never fails!

8/22/2011 11:11:31 PM

I'm glad that it's starting to turn, never fails if it's at a certain spot in the Atlantic like it is right now it usually turns.

8/23/2011 12:44:28 AM

What are the chances it curves completely out to sea by tomorrow night?

8/23/2011 2:27:52 AM

Now predicting strengthening to a Cat 4.

If this thing does come on shore, we just moved to an apartment in Carrboro this week, but have a house for sale in Halifax County. Wondering should I go "home" and watch the house, as it still has a lot of our stuff and make sure shit is okay there, or should I stay in the relative safety of the western Triangle? Course this is still way out so its still quite likely to curve to sea more and miss us totally.

8/23/2011 6:51:23 AM

stay home. hog shit will be all over everything come monday.

8/23/2011 7:05:08 AM

its a myth that everyone goes to the store and buys milk and bread. everyone simply goes to the store and grocery shops at the same time. Milk and bread, being the common items that everyone buys are what happen to run out first when there is a rush on the grocery store.

8/23/2011 7:07:28 AM

8/23/2011 7:11:48 AM

This is looking promising for those who like the power of mother nature. I'm intrigued..

8/23/2011 8:08:49 AM

6Z WRF difference in landfall is 2 degrees longitude farther east than 00Z, closer to GFS. NC may be dodging a bullet here. We'll see.

8/23/2011 8:12:32 AM

"Come on Irene,
I swear at this moment, you could do anything.
With you in that ocean, my thoughts I confess verge on scary,
go further east Irene."

8/23/2011 8:45:22 AM

Based on that last chart, doesn't it look like it's going to run roughshod over Wilmington?

I'm still hoping it goes out to sea, since we were told FL, then Savannah, then Charleston, etc.

8/23/2011 8:50:02 AM

[Edited on August 23, 2011 at 9:13 AM. Reason : ]

8/23/2011 8:55:29 AM

Why do the ensemble models always pull it out to sea? How is the endemble different from the computer model chart?

8/23/2011 9:05:24 AM

The ensemble is essentially multiple runs of the same model using various initial corrections, changes, perturbations based on current information. The GFS ensemble is essentially 20 GFS runs with different push starts.

Where as the regular model runs with HWRF, NGFDL, ECMWF, GFS, etc. are just one run of the model.

8/23/2011 9:09:38 AM

I think the prediction variable is exactly how strong/where the low thats moving in to our north will be....Stronger/closer to the coast will push it further east, while weaker/further inland will allow the high pressure system in the atlantic to funnel it inland.

8/23/2011 9:13:45 AM