Quote :

" Belarus will renounce its non-nuclear and neutral status, allowing Russia to place nuclear weapons on its territory, as a result of the referendum held today. 65.16% of citizens allegedly supported these constitutional amendments."

2/27/2022 7:11:13 PM

I wonder if Daaaaaaaaaave thinks the Belarusian government is legitimate or not.

2/27/2022 7:33:56 PM

imo you should stop trying to derail the Ukraine thread with childish argumentative behavior

2/27/2022 8:21:14 PM

Maybe you should stop having such childish takes

2/27/2022 8:27:39 PM

You have implied that you don't think Zelensky is a legitimate president, asking you if you think the Belarusian government is legitimate is absolutely a fair question

2/27/2022 8:31:25 PM

These shouldn't be tough questions Daave and are perfectly appropriate for the discussion.

Do you think Zelenskyy is the legitimate president of Ukraine as a result of a free and fair election?

Same question but with Lukashenko and Belarus.

If you think both are illegitimate, who do you think represents the will of the people better?

[Edited on February 27, 2022 at 9:15 PM. Reason : A]

2/27/2022 9:13:51 PM

Quote :

"Why would or should this happen?"

Should it happen in that scenario? No. Would it happen? Maybe. All of these sanctions aren't painless for European countries and the United States, and we're going to have congressional elections later this year and Presidential elections in 2024. Republicans look set to perform strongly in both, and the Republican party is to a significant extent a creature of Russian influence.

Quote :

"Whatever goals Putin had for this shit show, it's hard to imagine a worse outcome."

Pretty much. It's very hard to see the upside for him now, even if he manages to achieve all of his goals in Ukraine itself. NATO united, European neutrals more firmly aligned against Russia than they've been since the Winter War (or in Switzerland's case, since...ever). And that's without even getting into the domestic repercussions.

To a lesser extent, all of this can't be great for Xi Jinping either. He didn't quite give Putin the classic "blank check," but he did embrace Russia uncomfortably tightly right before all of this kicked off. By now he must desperately wish this war had never started but there's no face saving way to tell Putin to knock it off, let alone to join the sanctions regime. And he doesn't want a united, better-funded NATO any more than Putin does.

Hopefully they're taking notes about how this has gone down, and they refer to these notes the next time they gaze longingly at Taiwan.

---

Unrelated, I'm increasingly coming around to the "Putin is insanely paranoid about COVID and it's affecting his decision-making" theory. The pictures of him today sitting at a conference table 20 feet away from his generals sure paint that picture, and I've increasingly seen it from credible Russia experts.

[Edited on February 27, 2022 at 11:42 PM. Reason : ]

2/27/2022 11:33:45 PM

ukrainian national guard missed the memo about them not being riddled with fascists



[Edited on February 27, 2022 at 11:41 PM. Reason : .]

2/27/2022 11:40:43 PM

There are fascist/neo-nazi elements on the Ukraine side, particularly among the Azov fighters. We're aware. That said, the democratically-elected President of Ukraine is a Jewish comedian who previously had been criticized for being too willing to compromise with Putin in order to maintain peace, so this "UkRaInE iS nAzIs!!1" narrative doesn't hold together so well at the national level. Is it a problem? Yeah, and I think it would behoove the Ukrainian government to think about how to deal with that after the conflict is over. If Zelensky survives this war with his leadership intact and his popularity at anything like it's current levels, he'll have the clout to do that, and I hope he uses it.

Meanwhile, Putin is straight up fascist. You've got all the elements you need - lines between state and business blurred, state involvement in all aspects of life, an irredentist and revanchist view of geopolitics, militarism, obsession with masculinity and physical fitness, state control of media, disdain for democracy, suppression of opposition, murder of opponents, leader cult. Putin is the total package.

There's arguments to be made there, mostly because "fascism" is not particularly well-defined and we all know the word has been thrown around a lot in the past 90 years or so, to the point where it's largely lost whatever meaning it had. But I look through the classic traits of a fascist regime, and Russia ticks way more of those boxes than Ukraine does right now.

So my response to your tweet is that Ukraine has fascists but the Putin regime is fascist.

2/27/2022 11:57:21 PM

I agree with most of what you said, but I think the problem is much bigger than liberals are willing to let on. It doesn't bode well that the national guard is tweeting in support of a battalion that uses the SS logo, praising them for shooting muslim "orcs" with lard-coated bullets.

[Edited on February 28, 2022 at 12:11 AM. Reason : .]

2/28/2022 12:08:26 AM

Not going to answer the question daaave?

2/28/2022 7:02:07 AM

New video out this morning of Russia apparently cluster bombing some apartment buildings
The famous snake island defenders were taken prisoner by Russia
zelensky is asking for Ukraine to be accepted as part of the EU

Quote :

" A new aim for President Zelensky: “Europeans are aware that our soldiers are fighting for our country, & therefore for the whole of Europe.... And this gives us the full right to appeal to the European Union for the immediate accession of Ukraine under a new special procedure”"

2/28/2022 8:36:55 AM

At least the economic sanctions appear to be biting.

Sorry for your everyday Russian peasants who may not themselves be total shitheads.

2/28/2022 11:30:47 AM

AP: Ukraine's leader Zelenskyy applies for Ukraine to join the 27-nation European Union on 5th day of Russian invasion

2/28/2022 12:01:52 PM

This is pretty messed up

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/nigeria-condemns-treatment-africans-trying-to-flee-ukraine-government-poland-discrimination

Quote :

"Many African students have condemned the difficulties they have faced trying to escape the conflict, reporting hostility from security forces, ordinary Ukrainians and border staff. Samuel George, a 22-year-old Nigerian software engineering student, drove from Kyiv, along with four of his friends, fellow students from Nigeria and South Africa, to the Polish border. Queues of cars full of people trying to leave spanned 31 miles (50km) to the border. Yet when some men who were in the queue noticed they were Africans, he said, they stopped their vehicle. “They immediately saw that the Ukrainians could pass but when they realised we weren’t Ukrainians they stopped it. They told us we couldn’t move forward and wouldn’t let us join the queue,” George said. When they tried to defy them, he said the men attacked and vandalised their windscreen. “They demanded $500 – we begged and negotiated to pay $100. We had to leave the car and trek. We were walking for almost five hours to the border with Poland. One of us was sick. The temperature was freezing, it was so tough.” At the border, Ukrainian officials “showed racist acts”, attempting to force them to the back of the queue, George said. “So many of us are still stuck there facing challenges. Some of them went to the borders but they were sent back and are still trying to leave.”"

2/28/2022 12:48:03 PM

I will say that I was surprised with the number of black people I've seen in some of the footage of the residents sheltering or fleeing (but I know very little of the demographics of Ukraine).

2/28/2022 12:51:23 PM

https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-african-students-went-ukraine-145826617.html

Ultimately not that many given Ukraine's population

Quote :

"Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt are in the top 10 countries with students in Ukraine, in total sending over 16,000 students to the country, according to the education ministry. "

2/28/2022 12:56:32 PM

daaave continues to avoid the question

2/28/2022 12:58:58 PM

settle down

2/28/2022 1:01:24 PM

Bro stop being weird. This thread isn’t about your beef with my ideology and I’m not interested in debating you.

2/28/2022 1:05:41 PM

^^ Why? I'm honestly tired of people like him that sit there and just repeat Russian talking points and dance around the subject with 'I'm just asking questions' without actually stating their own beliefs or clarifying their position when asked.

War fucking sucks. The Azov Battalion certainly has issues and people generally turn into panicky, irrational actors when attempting to flee their homeland. I'm not condoning either the actions of the Azoz or what is happening to Africans trying to flee.

However, when you can't even answer the very basic question of 'Do you think Zelenskyy is the legitimate president of Ukraine as a result of a free and fair election?' which is an absolute cornerstone of this entire thing, you come across as EXTREMELY suspect. Especially after implying you think that he isn't but haven't said shit about Lukashenko.

[Edited on February 28, 2022 at 1:11 PM. Reason : a]

2/28/2022 1:10:47 PM

I have very clearly stated my position and am not interested in discussing nuanced political questions with someone who is constantly trying to play “gotcha” and failing miserably at it. Please feel free to ignore my posts.

2/28/2022 1:19:05 PM

And I will continue to bring up my opinion that you're happy about all of this. You're victim blaming the Ukrainians with the "they were asking for it" trope which is sad.

You can feel free to ignore me, but I'm going to keep doing it since you can't actually defend your views. Cheers mate.

2/28/2022 1:21:06 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkk9gvTmCXY

2/28/2022 1:26:21 PM

Now who isn't staying on topic?

2/28/2022 1:28:12 PM

2/28/2022 1:46:30 PM

I’m not a DSA member but I liked their statement.

https://www.dsausa.org/statements/on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Quote :

" The Democratic Socialists of America condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demands immediate diplomacy and de-escalation to resolve this crisis. We stand in solidarity with the working classes of Ukraine and Russia who will undoubtedly bear the brunt of this war, and with antiwar protestors in both countries and around the world who are calling for a diplomatic resolution. This extreme and asymmetrical escalation is an illegal act under the United Nations Charter and severely threatens the livelihoods and well-being of working-class peoples in Ukraine, Russia, and across the region. We urge an immediate ceasefire and the total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. There is no solution through war or further intervention. This crisis requires an immediate international antiwar response demanding de-escalation, international cooperation, and opposition to unilateral coercive measures, militarization, and other forms of economic and military brinkmanship that will only exacerbate the human toll of this conflict. DSA reaffirms our call for the US to withdraw from NATO and to end the imperialist expansionism that set the stage for this conflict. We call on antiwar activists in the US and across the world to oppose violent escalations, demand a lasting diplomatic solution, and stress the crucial need to accept any and all refugees resulting from this crisis. Much of the next ten years are coming into view through this attack. While the failures of neoliberal order are clear to everyone, the ruling class is trying to build a new world, through a dystopic transition grounded in militarism, imperialism, and war. Socialists have a duty to build an alternative. "

2/28/2022 2:01:20 PM

Quote :

"We call on antiwar activists in the US and across the world to oppose violent escalations, demand a lasting diplomatic solution, and stress the crucial need to accept any and all refugees resulting from this crisis. "

You like this statement, so I'll ask a simple question, do you object to NATO/other allied countries sending military aid to Ukraine currently? If you were at an airport and had the power to stop a plane loaded with javelins to Ukraine to be used against Russian armor..would you stop it?

2/28/2022 2:54:17 PM

[Edited on February 28, 2022 at 4:55 PM. Reason : Doublepost]

2/28/2022 4:54:39 PM

Quote :

" This is pretty messed up"

Yes, and I could absolutely see a similar story being documented if Ukraine was replaced with USA and Poland replaced by Canada.

2/28/2022 4:55:04 PM

FYI somebody did a thread on all the foreign policy folks saying nato expansion would lead to this outcome. A couple:

Quote :

"The first one is George Kennan, arguably America's greatest ever foreign policy strategist, the architect of the U.S. cold war strategy. As soon as 1998 he warned that NATO expansion was a "tragic mistake" that ought to ultimately provoke a "bad reaction from Russia". https://t.co/NHOxU5e1om"

Kissinger, a war criminal but nobodies communist

Quote :

"Then there's Kissinger, in 2014 ?? He warned that "to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country" and that the West therefore needs a policy that is aimed at "reconciliation". He was also adamant that "Ukraine should not join NATO" https://t.co/U4wjoTTjvA"

Bunch more

3/1/2022 7:32:06 AM

Well, he'll be pleased to know that it still hasn't!

[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 7:37 AM. Reason : Kissinger]

3/1/2022 7:36:55 AM

The Kissinger article has him saying that Ukraine should be free to make their own political associations and that Russia should give Crimea back to Ukraine.

Again, when Russia keeps expanding and invading, why wouldn't a country want to join the EU or NATO?

3/1/2022 8:01:23 AM

Like you folks understand that these countries didn't just join NATO for the hell of it right? In the early 90s, Russia was engaged in several major conflicts (First Chechen war, Transistria, Abkhazia, Georgian Civil War, etc)

Getting upset at NATO for saying 'You can apply if you want and we'll consider it' and ignoring the political and military actions of Russia at the time is extremely misguided.

3/1/2022 8:16:03 AM

^I understand.

It's time to hit the Russian energy sector hard. I'll pay $5.00 for gasoline. Europeans can throw on an extra blanket. Let's do this.

3/1/2022 8:37:00 AM

Quote :

"This is pretty messed up https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/nigeria-condemns-treatment-africans-trying-to-flee-ukraine-government-poland-discrimination "

Most traditional countries in Europe and Asia are extremely racist towards and prejudiced against black people, way more than Western (USA, UK, CA, AU, NZ, Western Europe) countries are.

This includes countries in Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia.

3/1/2022 9:06:33 AM

USA NOT Numbar 1 Racists!

3/1/2022 9:29:34 AM

I always found that difficult to explain to a lot of people. The US certainly has a significant problem with systematic racism, however in terms of average of individual people, we're not nearly as racist as other foreign countries.

There is also TONs of prejudices among people of different Asian descent (Japanese living in Korea for instance)

Obviously the US can and should be better and I'm not trying to make the argument that 'well we don't need to improve because we're not the worst'

[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 9:38 AM. Reason : a]

3/1/2022 9:37:30 AM

Quote :

"FYI somebody did a thread on all the foreign policy folks saying nato expansion would lead to this outcome."

So this is tricky, right? They say a strong reaction to NATO expansion was predictable, and they're not wrong about that. Yes, it's predictable that a great power is going to respond badly to another great power moving onto its border. This isn't the revelation some people seem to think, with their "But what if Canada joined the Warsaw Pact!" nonsense. We wouldn't like it. No shit.

Let's look at what Kissinger actually said right before the part you quoted:

Quote :

"Russia must accept that to try to force Ukraine into a satellite status, and thereby move Russia’s borders again, would doom Moscow to repeat its history of self-fulfilling cycles of reciprocal pressures with Europe and the United States."

One order of cycles of reciprocal pressures, coming right up.

It's a cycle that's quite old and has at times paused but never stopped. The initial wave of NATO expansion included a bunch of Eastern European countries whose action was informed by the fact that they had been forcibly conquered and dominated by Russia at the end of WWII. (Well, some of them had been forcibly conquered and dominated by Russia right at the start of WWII, then got conquered by the Nazis for a minute, then got conquered and dominated by Russia again.) There's a few years between 1945 and 1999, when the first group of former Soviet states starts to arrive, but it's part of the same cycle.

If you're Poland or the Baltics, joining NATO is a no-brainer. You just got out from under Russia, which sucked. Sitting quietly between two great powers has historically resulted in you hosting the wars between them, which also sucked. That just leaves door number three, having your defense propped up by the largest and most advanced military on Earth. Yeah, I'll take that. So there's no blaming them for what's happened.

So we could blame NATO for letting them in, which is of course what some of you seem to want us to do, but on what grounds? Telling these countries to take their chances between the great powers is both callous. OK, often being callous is necessary in foreign affairs, but here's it's also strategically hard to justify. We can predict that letting other countries in will anger Russia. We can also predict that not letting those countries in will eventually see them fall back under Russian domination. All of Russian history points to a desire for buffer states, dominance of neighbors, and, to a lesser extent, pan-slavism. Sooner or later, they'll try to bring countries back into the fold. Sometimes they'll use artillery (Chechnya), sometimes they'll use force and corruption (Belarus), sometimes they'll use puppets and misinformation (Ukraine prior to Euromaidan).

So leave these countries out, and eventually they're back in the Russian orbit, which is a loss for NATO and a loss for the countries in question. Only Russia wins. So I don't blame NATO for letting countries in.

I also don't blame Russia for its historical role in the cycle. We can keep chasing an original cause for the crisis all the way back to founding of the Rurikid dynasty and it won't do us any good. What I do blame Russia for are its actions right now. Historical cycles are important, but people and countries do have agency. Ukraine was using its agency to pursue closer ties to NATO and the EU. NATO and the EU were using their agency to mull over accepting these ties. And Russia under Putin used its agency to shoot cruise missiles at apartment buildings in Kharkiv.

3/1/2022 9:39:49 AM

Currently Russia is staging nukes in Belarus and nato looks like it will likely expand too. It seems bad that essentially more countries and places are using nuclear deterrence.

But I’m also not convinced with Putin in charge that any further reconciliation would have stopped this invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is neither a NATO member nor EU member— it seems like we’re living in the world where we pursued reconciliation. We even let putin take crimea (which in retrospect I think was actually a good idea— If nato had rallied then like they are now, putin would have used that as an excuse to be even more aggressive which is what he was hoping for I think).

I’ve argued on here before that I thought putin was acting in good faith to help Russia but this crimea operation makes me think he’s a mad man, just like I think Rumsfeld and Cheney were mad for invading Iraq.

But the neocons and neolibs seem to have outplayed putin here. Nato is Likely expanding, Russia is a pariah, our economy will grow at their expense, more countries will be buying more weapons, USA is set to reclaim credibility as the adult in the room on the world stage, and this is even if Russia is successful taking over Ukraine. If Russia ultimately fails then this is even better for America. The wild card is if putin would use nukes and I think he would. He rationalization would be that America has deployed nukes twice so why shouldn’t Russia?

3/1/2022 9:49:39 AM

^^ Really solid points.

I'd like to also point out that Russia likely had several outs in this situation. The first was when Biden was providing our intelligence updates 'Russia will attack, they will do X, Y, and Z', at that point, Putin could have just taken this as a win and said 'Look at the West, so afraid of our military exercises and how flawed their intelligence is'

The second was probably the recognition of LPR/DPR. I think this would have more or less followed the annexation of Crimea playbook, where sure the international community is 'outraged' but overall doesn't give a shit about Russia providing a massive amount of aid to the separatists and eventually welcoming them into the fold. As moron points out, we let them take Crimea.

Russia didn't stop there though.

Quote :

" USA is set to reclaim credibility as the adult in the room on the world stage, and this is even if Russia is successful taking over Ukraine."

To be honest, I've really happy how Biden has been playing this. Yes we have supported all the sanctions and are providing significant aid, but it seems like we're really letting the EU take charge of the situation.

[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 9:52 AM. Reason : a]

3/1/2022 9:51:09 AM

Quote :

"USA NOT Numbar 1 Racists!"

3/1/2022 10:06:53 AM

Quote :

" Today the EU and Ukraine are already closer than ever. There is still a long path ahead. We have to end this war. And we should talk about the next steps. But nobody can doubt that a people that stands up so bravely for our European values belongs in our European family."

Leader of eu just said this

3/1/2022 10:14:44 AM

Quote :

"We even let putin take crimea (which in retrospect I think was actually a good idea— If nato had rallied then like they are now, putin would have used that as an excuse to be even more aggressive which is what he was hoping for I think)."

No, I think this is a much more classic run-up to WWII scenario where the aggressor thinks it can keep on taking chunks and nobody will try to stop them - until suddenly they do. In 2014 we were still dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan and had a president whose foreign policy track record was spotty, so it seemed like a safe bet and basically it was. In 2022, we were still dealing with COVID and the United States was gobbling up thinkpieces about a second Civil War, so again, it probably seemed like a safe bet to take another bite.

Short version: I don't think Putin wanted us to be aggressive over Crimea, and he didn't want us to be aggressive this time, either.

Quote :

"this crimea operation makes me think he’s a mad man, just like I think Rumsfeld and Cheney were mad for invading Iraq."

None of them were mad. Making an immoral choice is not a surefire sign of an insanity. They were operating from flawed premises, not irrationality.

Quote :

"The wild card is if putin would use nukes and I think he would. He rationalization would be that America has deployed nukes twice so why shouldn’t Russia?"

This rationalization has been in place since 1945 and nobody has used it. No, I don't think Putin will use nukes preemptively. Maybe, maybe he'd try if he thought he was totally against a wall and about to lose power - but in that situation I don't think he'd find people willing to carry out the orders.

But let's say somehow you're right and he does use them. The only rationalization will be "We had to use ours before they used theirs," and nobody will be able to hear it over the sound of Russia being eradicated in a retaliatory nuclear holocaust.

Some people have suggested maybe he'd use tactical nukes within Ukraine, but I think that's even less likely. Firstly because at that point I don't think an escalation to strategic weapons is avoidable, secondly because even if it were, the rest of the world could not possibly settle for anything other than the arrest and trial (and, depending on who gets him, execution) of Putin and those involved in carry out the orders, in addition to the disarmament of Russia and likely occupation of large parts of it.

Quote :

"USA is set to reclaim credibility as the adult in the room on the world stage, and this is even if Russia is successful taking over Ukraine. If Russia ultimately fails then this is even better for America."

So far I agree that we are coming out ahead here. Europe is looking even better. But I don't think it's all gravy.

If Russia fails, instability and a power vacuum will result. Neither of those is ideal. In the short term, there's a whole bunch of military equipment, including nuclear weapons, waiting to be grabbed in that chaos. We got relatively lucky with the collapse of the USSR; if any nukes made it out, they didn't end up going off. One has to assume by now they would have. We probably wouldn't get so lucky again. In the long term, whoever comes out on top is unlikely to be much better. Russia doesn't have a legacy of liberal institutions, democracy, or really anything other than top-down government centered around a very powerful executive. A new such executive will arise, and they'll face the same fundamental strategic considerations Russia has always faced.

On the other hand, that second problem is inevitable regardless of how this plays out. Eventually Putin will die. Meet the new boss, etc.

3/1/2022 11:31:36 AM

Quote :

"Maybe, maybe he'd try if he thought he was totally against a wall and about to lose power - but in that situation I don't think he'd find people willing to carry out the orders."

I mean, that's the whole thing isn't it? No NATO country (or any country) wants to invade Russia because it's suicide. A simple reset to 'you just do whatever the fuck you want over there and try not to be too noisy' would be acceptable to most Western countries that have been essentially placating/helping him (annexation of Crimea, Nord 2 pipeline and increasing reliance on their oil/gas, letting him get away with assassinations and jailing of political prisoners)

This is why the whole idea of "NATO expansion forced him to do this" is just a farce. NATO/EU/the US was essentially turning a blind eye to a fuck ton he was doing.

Russian actions are not justified here nor do I see anything that pressured Russia into behaving the way they're doing now.

A proper historical 'well this was always going to happen' type situation is the Japanese attack on Pearl. I am definitely not saying their attack was justified, but you can look at the leadup of events prior such as the US embargo of oil and go "Yeah, that makes sense why they would do that".

In all honesty, what did Russia have to lose by Ukraine joining the EU or NATO?

[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 12:32 PM. Reason : a]

3/1/2022 12:31:44 PM

So I'm assuming daaaave has a logical explanation for why a Holocaust memorial was the target of air strikes.

3/1/2022 5:37:56 PM

^
I think you're still confused about my position here. I don't think Putin is actually "de-nazifying" Ukraine, apart from going after Azov and Right Sector in Donbas, who have been terrorizing ethnic Russians. I don't support the invasion. Putin is an anti-communist and in his speech before the the invasion he blamed Lenin and the Bolsheviks for "taking Ukraine from Russia".

Quote :

"No, I think this is a much more classic run-up to WWII scenario where the aggressor thinks it can keep on taking chunks and nobody will try to stop them"

Do you think Crimea would have been seized had the US not helped overthrow Yanukovych?

[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 6:03 PM. Reason : .]

3/1/2022 6:01:57 PM

Is Zelenskyy the legitimate president of Ukraine as a result of a free and fair election?

Can you please answer that question since it's relevant to yours?

3/1/2022 6:10:46 PM

Of course he is. Ukrainian politics shifted immensely after the events of 2013/14, due to the US-backed coup, the subsequent anti-Russian policies, and the Russian annexation of Crimea.

3/1/2022 6:33:29 PM

So this "US backed coup" helped install a legitimate candidate to president? Did Rada not have the power to remove Yanukovych from president?



[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 7:46 PM. Reason : a]

3/1/2022 7:40:45 PM