Well this

Quote :

"My hope is that if the Dems run left and then lose to a widely loathed dipshit like Trump, maybe they will reevaluate."

seems unlikely.

If Trump wins, it's going to be another thread-the-needle, minor-miracle, Electoral-College-assisted win. There's not going to be some massive repudiation of the Dem candidate.

Which puts us back at Republicans needing an 8-year teaching moment.

8/23/2019 9:08:06 PM

Correct in that the Dems are not going to get Mondaled if they lose...but losing at all to that crippled embarrassment may be enough to send the message of "maybe we should have gone for a base hit instead of a grand slam."

[Edited on August 23, 2019 at 9:23 PM. Reason : that, in and of itself, would not be reason for my non-voting decision, of course]

8/23/2019 9:18:30 PM

If Trump wins I’m going to guess the bulk of the people who didn’t vote for him will go “further left”.

Trump burned the center and salted the earth.

8/24/2019 9:53:39 AM

I hope Trump wins... Catharsis baby, catharsis!!!

8/24/2019 11:01:35 AM

Quote :

"Anyone who thinks Trump is the bottom of what we have seen in a president to date should be willing to vote for ANYONE other than Trump"

This line of thinking is precisely what gave us Trump. Continuing to vote on this logic is pure madness. Give me someone to vote for, and I'll consider it. Expect me to vote for whatever dogshit you throw out there, just because it's a different flavour than the current dogshit, and I'll just stay home. Because I'm tired of voting for fucking dogshit.

8/24/2019 11:15:52 AM

so youre either gonna vote for trump or yang, got it.

8/24/2019 12:21:03 PM

aaronburro is that guy who doesn't show up for meetings, doesn't put in time, and then complains about results that aren't to his liking.

8/24/2019 12:30:45 PM

Quote :

"Give me someone to vote for"

So you want a candidate specifically tailored to you but won’t take responsibility when bad things happen bc you didn’t get what you want???

[Edited on August 24, 2019 at 4:14 PM. Reason : Lol]

8/24/2019 4:13:17 PM

8/26/2019 10:24:03 AM

8/27/2019 2:55:50 PM

such tiny hands

8/27/2019 5:07:43 PM

8/28/2019 11:45:47 AM

he had a +17 approval rating in New Mexico?

8/28/2019 12:00:57 PM

Aside from a few states, the United States was Trump country in January 2017.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

8/28/2019 12:24:49 PM

Perhaps I am a bit late on this, but I'd like to start a running saga called:

Crazy shit my coworker says

This coworker is a ~60 year old, white male, Trump supporter, hyper partisan, Republican. He often goes to great lengths to ignore overwhelming evidence in order to support Trump.


Crazy shit my coworker says
-Trump never told anyone to ignore laws and seize land from people in order to build his wall. This was all fake news. Why does NBC continue to run this story?
-Trump did a great job in Puerto Rico after hurricane Maria. There isn't much more any president could have done
-Michael Cohen pled guilty to a crime that didn't exist. Neither he or Trump broke any campaign finance laws.
-Donald Trump's policies are not separating children from their families at the southern border
-Its not racist to tell minorities to go back to their own country

[Edited on August 30, 2019 at 10:35 AM. Reason : G]

8/30/2019 10:33:04 AM

Trump is an innocent angel

8/30/2019 10:41:23 AM

I'm willing to bet that if Trump found you passed out on the street, he wouldn't even spit on your butthole first before inserting his dangle

8/30/2019 10:48:01 AM

Does your coworker consume any news media other than Fox?

8/30/2019 11:59:16 AM

Breitbart

8/30/2019 12:45:06 PM

Quote :

"Correct in that the Dems are not going to get Mondaled if they lose...but losing at all to that crippled embarrassment may be enough to send the message of "maybe we should have gone for a base hit instead of a grand slam.""

this is hilarious reasoning considering 2016 wasn't that long ago

8/30/2019 12:55:09 PM

Quote :

"Crazy shit my coworker says -Trump never told anyone to ignore laws and seize land from people in order to build his wall. This was all fake news. Why does NBC continue to run this story? -Trump did a great job in Puerto Rico after hurricane Maria. There isn't much more any president could have done -Michael Cohen pled guilty to a crime that didn't exist. Neither he or Trump broke any campaign finance laws. -Donald Trump's policies are not separating children from their families at the southern border -Its not racist to tell minorities to go back to their own country"

This is somewhat comforting actually. He recognizes if trump did those things they would be wrong.

Plenty of people would rationalize why it’s okay for trump to tell people to break the law, or commit campaign crimes, or separate children from parents.

8/30/2019 10:38:41 PM

9/3/2019 9:56:06 AM

9/6/2019 11:11:45 AM

9/6/2019 11:54:27 AM

Crazy shit my coworker says

-I don't care if Trump lies. Politicians lie all the time. At least I know he's lying instead of with Obama or Clinton.

9/6/2019 12:19:08 PM

I wish there was a way to actually have a productive conversation with people who do nothing but deflect with 'whataboutism' in every single critique of Trump.

It's like kryptonite and it makes my head explode so I just give up. Actually, I know better to even get started in the first place since it's a waste of time and energy.

9/6/2019 1:02:33 PM

That's like your coworker pointing out you drink a few beers on Sunday afternoons to justify his fifth-a-night alcoholism.

9/6/2019 6:58:05 PM

9/6/2019 7:01:48 PM

9/6/2019 8:13:46 PM

Crazy shit my coworker says

-I think that Biden is the one that's in trouble here. He isnonncamera saying he withheld billions of dollars in aid until that Ukrainian prosecutor was fired.

9/24/2019 7:09:44 AM

im not going to point fingers but guess which crybabies ITT are going to "vote for trump" when their preferred candidate isnt the nominee?

a simple list will suffice.

9/24/2019 7:47:09 AM

So how do y'all like being fucked by Trump? Hope you have gotten used to it, because if not, another 4 years of being raped by him are coming.

9/24/2019 9:14:55 AM

I go to a relative's FB a time or two a week to see what kind of silly stuff they've posted:



[Edited on September 24, 2019 at 1:27 PM. Reason : ]

9/24/2019 1:14:26 PM

wat

9/24/2019 4:10:59 PM

T

10/12/2019 9:01:16 PM

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf

Quote :

"Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota, assuming historical average nonincumbent turnout... However, things get much closer under alternative turnout assumptions. Under the assumption that the nonincumbent share of turnout in 2020—that is, Democrats and independents—were to match its historical maximum across all states, only the pocketbook model predicts a victory for Trump. Under such a high-turnout scenario, the Democratic Party nominee would win handily under the stock market model and by the skin of their teeth under the unemployment model. An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259... Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump's column versus our average turnout baseline."

10/15/2019 3:10:06 PM

So I read through it. Lots of good details in there and it does make me a little nervous.

For those who don't want to read something really dense, you can basically sum it up as incumbents win, even more so when people have jobs, decent wages, and a high stock market.

10/16/2019 10:42:09 AM

your polls aren't fine.

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/index-models/keys-to-the-white-house/

10/17/2019 10:21:30 AM

That guy said trump would win the popular vote, trump lost by 3 million votes (a record)

10/17/2019 10:52:06 AM

I could be wrong, but I don't think he said Trump would win the popular vote, he just said Trump would win. the typical headline for him is "correctly predicted the outcome of the past nine presidential elections" is asterisked with popular vote to account for him predicting Gore in 2000.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win

I've posted about Lichtman and his model/analysis a few times

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/455736-joe-biden-versus-elizabeth-warren-may-be-the-ultimate-primary-battle

Looks like he is leaning toward Warren right now (although he was talking about Harris last year), but I think that goes against this theme he highlights

Quote :

" The only way that a challenging party like the Democrats can help themselves in a nomination is by choosing a charismatic inspirational candidate such as Barack Obama in 2008 or Ronald Reagan in 1980. To start with, strike the word “electability” from your political vocabulary. In an exchange on CNN, Michael Smerconish delivered the conventional wisdom that the Democratic primary contest is “all about electability.” Yet, even astute pundits like Smerconish and smart party leaders have no clue about who is truly electable. The Democrats believed they had anointed electable, experienced, and qualified candidates with Michael Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. What those candidates have in common is that they lost"

Warren comes across as the electable, experienced, and qualified candidate. More inspirational than Biden for sure, but I think that message doesn't quite land as hard when you have Bernie in the race. I'm not sure what percent of voters believe in her big structural change message

I stand by what I posted in the soap box thread

Quote :

"establishment picks will 100% lose to Trump. and Trump knows it too"

[Edited on October 17, 2019 at 11:14 AM. Reason : .]

10/17/2019 11:05:31 AM

His model only deals with the popular vote -- he said trump would win the popular vote

10/17/2019 11:12:42 AM

so you hate him and hate 538. you also hate people who hate polling. please point us towards your approved pick.

i need to update my list of approved scooters, cutlery / pans, cargo shorts, old bmws and other items where you have strong opinions.


[Edited on October 17, 2019 at 11:29 AM. Reason : .]

10/17/2019 11:28:11 AM

I can't speak for DT, but 538s polling aggregator is great, it's silvers attempts at punditry and reading into polls beyond election results that suck.

[Edited on October 17, 2019 at 12:55 PM. Reason : E]

10/17/2019 12:55:22 PM

^^DAB

10/17/2019 4:10:23 PM

stoner trolling, lol

10/17/2019 5:24:52 PM

Crazy shit my coworker says
-i don't think that Trump did anything wrong with pressuring Ukraine to investigate Biden. Presidents can withhold aid to other countries and do so all the time.
-the house is wrong to impeach Trump because there was no crime committed. The president didn't do anything illegal
-impeachment is a criminal process

11/4/2019 11:04:30 AM

Trump is going to the Bama vs LSU game, I would assume because he knows he'll be cheered there. Couldn't stand the stain of the World Series boos. I'm sure the fans are ecstatic about the game traffic situation now.

11/4/2019 11:45:46 PM

https://www.facebook.com/nick.norris/videos/10157964694359524/

11/9/2019 9:30:55 PM

https://www.facebook.com/WRALTV/videos/2475699426048118?vh=e&d=n&sfns=mo

Protestors against Lara trump and Kirk at NCSU right now

11/13/2019 7:12:04 PM

I voted for Trump via the green party

11/13/2019 7:49:49 PM