Str8BacardiL ************ 41753 Posts user info edit post |
]2/7/2014 1:34:14 PM |
quagmire02 All American 44225 Posts user info edit post |
short version: something between #2 and #3...with a 30-40% confidence
http://images.bimedia.net/images/Brad+Explainer+Map2.png http://images.bimedia.net/images/Brad+Explainer+Map3.png
also, just in case
[Edited on February 7, 2014 at 2:06 PM. Reason : pictures are too big, so just click the links]2/7/2014 2:02:47 PM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
Midweek this coming week could be very interesting. 2/8/2014 6:16:48 AM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
The latest NAM is a NC destroyer.pretty much the entire state gets nailed.
But we know where this is going. Snow in VA and some cold rain here... 2/8/2014 10:04:25 AM |
Sayer now with sarcasm 9841 Posts user info edit post |
You mean 2 feet of snow in Richmond, and sunny and 70 here in Raleigh?
Yup, know it all too well. 2/8/2014 10:20:18 AM |
occamsrezr All American 6985 Posts user info edit post |
I really hope not. Me, my wife and the baby are scheduled to fly out to Japan via SFO on Wednesday morning @ 7 am. 2/8/2014 10:31:42 AM |
yuffie_chan All American 4898 Posts user info edit post |
Wednesday is my first day of work in Virginia... fortunately they'll have me in a hotel right near work the first few days before I can move into the new place.
I almost hope it doesn't snow too much ;_; 2/8/2014 1:35:52 PM |
prb185 All American 1589 Posts user info edit post |
Fuck you Brunswick County
2/8/2014 3:22:16 PM |
BridgetSPK #1 Sir Purr Fan 31378 Posts user info edit post |
^LOL 2/8/2014 3:28:06 PM |
Gozo All American 10337 Posts user info edit post |
2/8/2014 5:35:29 PM |
Str8BacardiL ************ 41753 Posts user info edit post |
I am prepared except for having working heat. 2/8/2014 6:00:16 PM |
Novicane All American 15416 Posts user info edit post |
Should i buy bread and milk now? 2/8/2014 6:30:41 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
wxbrad still has it as a level 3 (social media) buy bread is level 10 2/8/2014 6:53:47 PM |
ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Should i buy bread and milk now?" |
Yes, milk sandwiches are always in style2/8/2014 7:01:40 PM |
dmspack oh we back 25536 Posts user info edit post |
Bring on the snow. I'll gladly take a snow day from work 2/8/2014 7:44:38 PM |
Lionheart I'm Eggscellent 12775 Posts user info edit post |
^^ I'm partial to milk soup with toast. 2/8/2014 7:51:56 PM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
WRT the previous storm...Were the QPF totals a bust as compared to the model projections or were they pretty spot on. Only got 1.5" at my house...and it seemed less that the close to .75" of liquid precip modeled before the storm.
[Edited on February 8, 2014 at 9:17 PM. Reason : wrt] 2/8/2014 9:12:35 PM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
^The models were pretty concentrated on ~.25 of liquid for the RDU area IIRC. Every now and then the track would shift and show .5 for RDU and that was trending the later the storm got here. It was always going to be cold enough with that storm. The question was the track and if the atmosphere was going to be moist enough.
I believe the question with this storm is not the track or the moist atmosphere but if the atmosphere at all levels is going to be cold enough for just snow or if it will be rain/mixture.
[Edited on February 8, 2014 at 9:44 PM. Reason : sdf] 2/8/2014 9:43:28 PM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
oy model madness 2/8/2014 11:27:56 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
I tried reading the AmericanWx thread and all I saw was a bunch of clowns complaining about North Georgia... so I have no clue. 2/9/2014 6:26:24 AM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
^yeah, not a ton of NC discussion going on at the moment. Alot of those mets are placed out of places like Atlanta, so they really hone their discussion in on that. Especially when its looking like a huge ice storm for them. Still holding on a decent bit of snow for the NC areas I believe. Highly volatile system(as they always are) that will more than likely change multiple times over the next 24-48 hours. 2/9/2014 6:28:29 AM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Am I wrong in saying that it looks like Tues is where it would be cold enough to snow but that first batch of precip is now going to be weak and the big precip will be Weds and be a Raleigh special of cold rain? 2/9/2014 7:08:36 AM |
Novicane All American 15416 Posts user info edit post |
http://www.wral.com/A-mild-Sunday-with-possible-snow-on-the-way/13372678/ 2/9/2014 8:27:37 AM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
^^Yeah. It initially looked like the first batch of precip was going to be the one that thumps us, but now it looks like the second batch is going to be the worst. More ice with the second batch I believe. 2/9/2014 11:11:46 AM |
BJCaudill21 Not an alcoholic 8015 Posts user info edit post |
So can I go to the game Tuesday night or not? It's about a 10 minute drive, and I don't mind rain or snow as long as it's not all iced over 2/9/2014 11:36:49 AM |
fenway All American 3135 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Should i buy bread and milk now?" |
You should always be looking to buy milk.2/9/2014 12:17:30 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
So I-85 corridor event?
Little if anything for RDU? 2/9/2014 1:30:37 PM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
From what i'm reading...the big ticket item has moved to Wednesday. 2/9/2014 1:35:21 PM |
LudaChris All American 7946 Posts user info edit post |
This seemed like a bigger deal a couple of days ago, sounds like it's trending more towards rain/sleet for 2-3 days. Yuck. S[no]w. 2/9/2014 1:40:43 PM |
BDubLS1 All American 10406 Posts user info edit post |
Still very much the possibility of snow and sleet on top of it...
Keep watching 2/9/2014 1:50:56 PM |
LudaChris All American 7946 Posts user info edit post |
Best I'm reading now is 1-3" for Raleigh, but sounds like Charlotte might get hammered. 2/9/2014 1:55:04 PM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
I'm in Charlotte and have to work Wednesday night no matter the weather. Yay 2/9/2014 2:42:45 PM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
It'll be a big deal here if it gives us 3" of snow, a couple inches of sleet and freezing rain. Could be very nasty indeed. 2/9/2014 2:44:32 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Raleigh NWS is going with a chance of rain for Weds. No surprise.
Charlotte to Greensboro should get it good, though. 2/9/2014 3:29:20 PM |
eleusis All American 24527 Posts user info edit post |
It just started snowing pretty good here in Baltimore. 2/9/2014 4:16:21 PM |
BDubLS1 All American 10406 Posts user info edit post |
As of 3:20PM: Raleigh NWS still says a lot of uncertainty exists and it is too early to call. They expect it to be significant, but type of precip and amounts is beyond the forecasting right now.
They said a winter storm watch could be issued within 24 hours. 2/9/2014 4:28:00 PM |
dweedle All American 77386 Posts user info edit post |
yeah, same a little while ago in Alexandria 2/9/2014 4:28:10 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
^^ they updated the day by day things and discussion right after I posted that. My bad..
I'll check again at the 0z's and see if its any clearer I guess. Curious about this storm.
[Edited on February 9, 2014 at 4:50 PM. Reason : x] 2/9/2014 4:50:24 PM |
Novicane All American 15416 Posts user info edit post |
They did a pretty bad job of predicting the times last time. So anything they say could +8 , -8 hours. 2/9/2014 5:09:31 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
so whats the latest, any message boards to read? 2/9/2014 8:39:41 PM |
puck_it All American 15446 Posts user info edit post |
Imma need some links. Where do you people see this stuff. 2/9/2014 8:52:07 PM |
GrimReap3r All American 2732 Posts user info edit post |
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42794-the-big-one-forecast-discussion/page-3 2/9/2014 8:58:03 PM |
bbehe Burn it all down. 18402 Posts user info edit post |
lol American WX is down. One of the mods was saying one of the threads was getting too big for their sql server. 2/9/2014 9:43:49 PM |
Novicane All American 15416 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow " |
2/9/2014 9:55:48 PM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
^^lol. There are 550 people reading that ONE TOPIC.
Also, they have no clue whats gonna happen. All they do is look at a computer model and give conjecture on why it is saying what it is saying. They then give a prediction on whats gonna happen if that model comes to fruition. The problem is, between two days ago and when the event actually arrives, there will have been so many models that any one of them could have been "right" because they're all gonna predict different shit. Hell, so far, I've seen raleigh predicted as anywhere from rain to a foot of snow. NO KIDDING!? 2/9/2014 10:14:43 PM |
joepeshi All American 8094 Posts user info edit post |
NAM...cold rain. 2/9/2014 10:22:31 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
looks like cold rain for us 2/9/2014 10:24:00 PM |
KeB All American 9828 Posts user info edit post |
The town of Cary has already brined all of their roads.
& if ^ ,^^ you think it's just gonna be cold rain for two days you are nuts 2/10/2014 3:07:46 AM |
wolfpack2105 All American 12428 Posts user info edit post |
We're closing in on it and nobody seems to know what its going to do yet, so predicting anything is dumb. Way too many variables that can change on a moments notice. The only thing that seems somewhat certain ATM is that if the storm tracks the way everyone thinks it will, the mountains are going to get crushed with a foot+ of snow. Anything east of that and the foothills is fair game to snow, sleet, freezing rain etc. That thinking will probably change 3-4 times before Tuesday gets here as well. 2/10/2014 4:06:54 AM |
BubbleBobble Super Duper Veteran 114363 Posts user info edit post |
hopefully it'll start Tuesday night B-) 2/10/2014 4:43:41 AM |