But it makes no sense to say it was the low interest rates that prolonged the deflation. Far more likely it was the bailouts and covering up of losses.

11/5/2009 11:37:09 AM

Unemployment tops 10 pct for 1st time since '83
Economy sheds larger-than-expected 190,000 jobs in October
updated 26 minutes ago

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33713864/ns/business-personal_finance

Even though it's a leading economic indicator, there are problems with unemployment as a metric. Still, 10.2 percent is pretty fucking high.

11/6/2009 11:13:13 AM

What's hilarious is the "'83."

And conservatives completely block it from their mind.

"Obama's such an awful President! If only Zombie Reagan could enact free-market policies that could help us like they did in '81! Oh wait.



[Edited on November 6, 2009 at 11:17 AM. Reason : ]

11/6/2009 11:16:56 AM

^ Um. . .I didn't block it from my mind. I obviously bolded it in the title I posted.

11/6/2009 11:19:08 AM

updated 26 minutes ago

11/6/2009 11:23:58 AM

troll

11/6/2009 11:25:13 AM

October

never forget

11/6/2009 11:26:11 AM

I thought the economy was getting better? That 10% number doesn't matter to me much really...its been well over 11% in Charlotte over the last year or so...the rest of the country is just catching up now

11/6/2009 12:01:09 PM

The economy is getting better.

Did you catch the most-recent GDP report?

11/6/2009 12:07:06 PM

Its a jobless recovery though. The economy is supposedly getting better, but 200,000 people lost their jobs in the last month, and the 10.2% national unemployment rate is likely to get even higher.

Believe me, I hope it gets better, but I haven't seen much with my own two eyes to indicate that its gotten tangibly better yet.

11/6/2009 12:26:39 PM

Too early to call this a jobless recovery.

1) We may not actually be in a recovery yet.
2) Employment is a lagging indicator (even if we are in recovery, unemployment will continue to rise for some time)

11/6/2009 3:52:24 PM

If the economy wasn't so damn shitty right now, the title of the thread and first 10 or so pages of hooksaw would be making me lol right now.

11/6/2009 3:59:07 PM

Did he ever answer

Quote :

"Who on this board?"

[Edited on November 6, 2009 at 4:12 PM. Reason : ]

11/6/2009 4:12:23 PM

Broader Measure of Unemployment Stands at 17.5%
November 6, 2009

Quote :

"For all the pain caused by the Great Recession, the job market still was not in as bad shape as it had been during the depths of the early 1980s recession — until now."

Quote :

"In all, more than one out of every six workers — 17.5 percent — were unemployed or underemployed in October. The previous recorded high was 17.1 percent, in December 1982."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/business/economy/07econ.html

Whoa.

11/7/2009 5:18:29 AM

Quote :

"1982"

Without the slightest hint of irony!

11/7/2009 8:11:22 AM

Quote :

" For all the pain caused by the Great Recession, the job market still was not in as bad shape as it had been during the depths of the early 1980s recession — until now. … The new benchmark is a sign of just how much damage financial crises tend to inflict. A recent book by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, two economists, found that over the last century the typical crisis had caused the jobless rate in the country where it occurred to rise for almost five years. By that standard, the jobless rate here would continue rising for two more years, through the end of 2011. Most economists predict that the rate will in fact begin to fall next year, largely because of the federal government’s aggressive response — fiscal stimulus, interest-rate cuts and a variety of creative steps by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. Friday’s report showed that monthly job losses continued to slow recently, though the improvement has been gradual."

- http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/business/economy/07econ.html

[Edited on November 7, 2009 at 12:38 PM. Reason : ]

11/7/2009 12:37:51 PM

Quote :

"The taxman cometh. That’s not only going to be individually painful in 2010 but the collective hit to consumers could be enough to stall the economic recovery. 2010, though is the short-term. The International Monetary Fund, in a burst of pre-holiday cheer, warned on November 3 to expect ten years of spending cuts and tax increases. Ten years. Now that I’ve got your attention, let’s start with the short-term squeeze, more to the long-term, and then see if there are any strategies for keeping the taxman from our doors. I got a firsthand demonstration of the tax squeeze about a week ago. I’m the treasurer for the cooperative that owns the building where I live. November is budget time and I met with the management company that runs our building to walk through what it would cost us to run out building in 2010. It was shocking. Of course, even though the Federal Reserve says there is no inflation, everything is going to be a little more expensive in 2009 than it was in 2009. Wages for the workers in our building. Cleaning supplies. Elevator repairs. 3% here. 5% there."

http://tinyurl.com/yznw38v

11/10/2009 11:18:41 AM

This article makes my head hurt with how fucked up the numbers being bounced about for health care really are:

Quote :

"WASHINGTON — More and more, the Great Health Care Debate of 2009 is a numbers game. And the longer the debate goes on, the squishier the numbers seem to get. For months, many leading Democrats, including President Obama, have pushed for the creation of a government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers. A main argument was that a public plan would save people money. It would not be under pressure to earn profits, pay high private-sector salaries or deny needed care. But after House Democratic leaders unveiled their health care bill on Thursday, the Congressional Budget Office said the public plan would cost more than private plans and only six million people would sign up."

http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/changing-numbers-make-meaning-even-more-elusive/

11/10/2009 11:34:49 AM

President Obama Announces 'Jobs Summit'
November 12, 2009

Quote :

"ABC News' Rachel Martin reports: President Obama today announced a 'job creation forum' that will take place at the White House sometime in December."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/11/president-obama-announces-jobs-summit.html

Yeah, I'm sure this "summit" will kickstart the economy. I mean, they need waiters and shit, right?

11/13/2009 7:33:37 AM

Quote :

"The unemployment rate is still miserable, but it's not entirely bad news -- at least if you find clever ways of slicing and dicing the data. Today's chart measures the percentage difference between new hires and separations (people leaving a job). As you can see, the gap yawned late last year, as way more people left the workforce than were hired. But it's coming back, getting closer to the 0% mark (even). And then of course, we just need to create a lot of jobs."

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-hires-and-separation-rates-since-2006-2009-11?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Clusterstock%20Chart%20of%20the%20Day%2C%20Monday%2C%2011%2F16%2F09

11/16/2009 6:55:12 PM

Good Bloomberg article on why the dollar may collapse and why raising tax revenue may be harder than expected:

Quote :

"Dollar’s Demise Traces Roots to U.S. Tax Trap: Kevin Hassett Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar has tanked this year, though the drop has been fairly steady and orderly. That may be about to change. The history of financial markets suggests that crashes are painfully common. Steady bad news very often leads to a rout. Sadly, the scenario that turns the dollar’s bear market into a crash is beginning to look like a sure thing. If a dollar crash were to occur, it might happen because foreign investors decide that the U.S. has fallen into a so- called tax trap. A tax trap occurs when a nation finds itself unable to increase revenue by lifting tax rates. Such a circumstance, if paired with mounting deficits, can lead to wholesale flight from a nation’s assets. The Chinese will only lend money if they think we will pay it back. If doubt about the latter deepens, all bets are off. Why might the U.S. be in a tax trap? The problem is that the U.S. income tax, a primary source of federal revenue, is very progressive, and has high rates. When rates are already high, it becomes harder and harder to raise money by lifting them more. This is, of course, the observation that made economist Arthur Laffer famous, and for the U.S. it is a real concern. "

http://ow.ly/CKoU

11/17/2009 6:20:41 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN188108620091118

Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession

Quote :

""It is important though to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession," he said."

All I can really say is "No shit, son." It's frightening that the President is just now coming to this realization.

11/18/2009 8:50:16 AM

Quote :

"After this rally I’m still waiting for signs that the economy is in a sustained recovery Jim Jubak Cash flows and cheap money are enough to keep the current rally going into 2010, I believe. Comparisons with really, really weak quarters in the first half of 2009 for global economies in general and for company earning in particular favor a continuation of the upward trend in stock prices in the quarters that end in March and June 2010, I believe. After that, though, things begin to look decidedly dicey—unless investors can see clear signs that the growth we’ve seen in the last half of 2009 is sustainable and is building momentum. On that, unfortunately, the jury is still out."

http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/19/after-this-rally-im-still-waiting-for-signs-that-the-economy-is-in-a-sustained-recovery/

11/19/2009 9:55:14 AM

11/19/2009 11:08:40 AM

As I understand it, it would have been better for Bernanke to use his helicopter instead of what we did do, which was try to use fiscal policy to impact monetary policy (Big Fail).

11/19/2009 4:14:18 PM

Quote :

"Geithner: Use Leftover Bailout Money To Cut Deficit Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner dodged questions Thursday about when the government will end its $700 billion bailout program. In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Geithner said he would not support a permanent extension of the program, but noted that some small businesses are still experiencing a credit crunch. "We're winding it down and will close it as soon as we can," the Treasury secretary said, adding that he expects part of the money to be used to reduce the record $1.42 trillion deficit."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120570711&ft=1&f=1014

11/19/2009 7:56:27 PM

Quote :

"Why were shoppers wrestling with each other on the floor or Wal-Mart for a cheap price on a new videogame? Really, why do they put up with such horridness? The answer: Americans are broke. As a survey from the National Retail Federation revealed, more Americans than ever intended to brave the Black Friday mess, and they intended to spend far less than in recent years. More people and more demand for bargains gets you total chaos."

11/30/2009 8:13:26 PM

^^ haha, wow… what is the point of using money you don’t have to pay off money you don’t have?

I guess though it’s better to use existing than rather than taking on more debt.

11/30/2009 8:15:57 PM

Does U.S. Need a Second Stimulus to Create Jobs?
With the Economy Still in Rough Shape, Calls Mount for Extra Infusions of Federal Money
Nov. 22, 2009

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-stimulus-create-jobs/story?id=9139378

12/1/2009 3:52:17 AM

Quote :

"One caveat to today's jobs report -- which overall was excellent -- is the fact that Americans continue to leave the work force, and that these people aren't included in headline rate. Said the BLS: About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea- sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work , and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. As you can see, that number remains at a record high, and eventually they'll be coming back."

12/4/2009 8:24:48 PM

Quote :

"The White House, meanwhile, is equally concerned about the deficit, and is disinclined to spend big. Administration officials Friday cited the jobs report as they talked about a more moderate "targeted jobs program.” Democrats hope soon to pass legislation, estimated to cost about $100 billion, extending payments for those whose jobless insurance and related health benefits expire in 2010. That money would likely add to the deficit. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125994609192376921.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

Weird to hear the WSJ talking up the admin

12/4/2009 9:52:45 PM

Quote :

"The Mortgage Bankers Assocation (via Rolfe Winkler) is out with its latest look at loan delinquencies across a variety of investor groups. The one trend: up. CMBS has now crossed the 4% delinquency rate, though at least there are some signs of a turn, rather than just a pure straight line."

Green shoots mothafucka!

12/7/2009 9:09:07 PM

Obama: Nation must "spend our way out of this recession."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9CF8SIO0&show_article=1

12/8/2009 4:48:08 PM

Quote :

"Global trade declined last month, with total shipments dropping 9% from October. This bad news could undermine the notion that we are in the midst of an economic recovery. In fact, the number is higher than it was at the depth of the crisis last year—when shipments to the US dropped 7% from October to November. The news jibes with data from JPMorgan, released last week, that global economic activity stalled out again in November. Of course, some seasonal decline is expected at this time of year. Last year, however, the fall off in shipping just got worse and worse. Cross your fingers and hope that we’re not back on that sinking ship."

On the other hand, it could simply be a result of the weakening US dollar. People smarter than me will probably disagree.

12/9/2009 1:48:38 AM

^Added randomly bolded words

Quote :

"Global trade declined last month, with total shipments dropping 9% from October. This bad news could undermine the notion that we are in the midst of an economic recovery. In fact, the number is higher than it was at the depth of the crisis last year—when shipments to the US dropped 7% from October to November. The news jibes with data from JPMorgan, released last week, that global economic activity stalled out again in November."

[Edited on December 9, 2009 at 1:59 AM. Reason : ,]

12/9/2009 1:59:31 AM

Thought this was interesting . . .

Quote :

"This must be one of Warren Buffett's favorite charts right now. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an economic indicator for the U.S. manufacturing sector, in blue below. It tends to be a leading indicator for future railroad shipments. This relationship makes sense since product orders generally lead to transportation demand via railroad and trucks. Due to positive signs from manufacturing, the PMI has spiked hard recently. Thus it's a fair bet that rail carloads, in red below, should eventually spike as well. We might not be back to the good old days, but the situation is likely to be better than where we've just been. If this turns out true, it would be good news for the U.S. economy and U.S. manufacturing. It'd also make Warren Buffett look pretty smart, since he made his largest investment ever in the railroad Burlington Northern (BNI) not too long ago. The author owns shares in BNI."

12/9/2009 7:41:54 PM

Dems to lift debt ceiling by $1.8 trillion, fear 2010 backlash

Quote :

"In a bold but risky year-end strategy, Democrats are preparing to raise the federal debt ceiling by as much as $1.8 trillion before New Year’s rather than have to face the issue again prior to the 2010 elections. “We’ve incurred this debt. We have to pay our bills,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told POLITICO Wednesday. And the Maryland Democrat confirmed that the anticipated increase could be as high as $1.8 trillion — nearly twice what had been assumed in last spring’s budget resolution for the 2010 fiscal year."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30417.html

Jesus. Is anyone in Washington even thinking about paying this debt back, ever? What is going to change? What is going to allow us to repay that much money? Our economy would need to have unprecedented growth to generate the kind of tax revenue for that. Even Bernanke said we would have normal unemployment for 5 years, and he's been dead wrong all along the way. When our debt is about to exceed our GDP, you know there's going to be trouble...especially when the GDP number is already inflated by government spending.

[Edited on December 10, 2009 at 10:42 AM. Reason : ]

12/10/2009 10:39:52 AM

We don't have to pay it back as long as we have the strongest military, or so the theory goes.

We'd have to shut down the entire federal gov. for around 6 years to pay off the debt... which means it would take probably 30 years to pay it off with relatively normal operations. The Obama administration seems to talk more about the deficit than the Bush admin did... i'm hoping once the dust settles regarding the bailout funds and healthcare, they'll take a serious look at that problem. It's bass-ackwards, but it's better than nothing at this point.

12/10/2009 10:47:43 AM

No country has been invaded for failure to pay its debts since the mid-19th century. As such, our military capabilities are irrelevant, we can refuse to pay the debt tomorrow with reasonable ill effects, the vast majority of which will be born by our debt holders. It is not even clear that our currency would take that big a hit. Afterall, every other American would still be paying their debts (except for GM and Chrysler, obviously).

12/10/2009 1:00:05 PM

A contract is a contract is a contract, but only between ferengi

12/10/2009 1:06:11 PM

^^ the point of the military being strong is not to stave off an invasion, it's to deter China from saying "look if you don't pay us this debt we won't do so-and-so," we could say "okay do what you want, but don't be surprised if these oil tankers from Saudi Arabia don't make it over there because we won't protect it" or some other such political game that is played every day.

Just look at it this way... if our military suddenly disappeared, China would have a lot more room to try and dick us around regarding the debt.

12/10/2009 1:34:26 PM

It begins

Chinese car market overtakes that of United States

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ilh7yx-ziJaWxDxgxh2rsPfekaqwD9CGN3JO2

Quote :

"More than 12.7 million cars and trucks will be sold in China this year, up 44 percent from the previous year and surpassing the 10.3 million forecast in the U.S., according to J.D. Power and Associates. China has long been expected to overtake the U.S. since its population of 1.3 billion is more than quadruple that of the United States. But the increase in sales happened much faster than anyone expected because of China's tax cuts, its stimulus program and a depressed American market. Two years ago, J.D. Power predicted China would pass the U.S. in 2025. Earlier this year, it forecast 2009 sales of just 9 million vehicles for China. "

12/14/2009 1:54:32 PM

I guess the GDP is a proper measure of economic growth after all--when a Democrat is saying that it is:

Recession is over, Summers says

Quote :

"Pointing to a rising GDP, more hours of work for the employed and a lower number of jobs lost in the past month as proof that the American economy is pulling out of a vast downturn, Lawrence H. Summers, President Obama's top economic adviser, said that the recession is over. 'Today, everybody agrees that the recession is over, and the question is what the pace of the expansion is going to be,' Summers said."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2009/12/recession-is-over-summers-says.html

Obama hails GDP growth as sign recession abating

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE59S3AT20091029

BUT there is some confusion, it seems:

Romer: The recession isn't over

http://www.videowired.com/video/?id=819988963

[Edited on December 15, 2009 at 2:48 PM. Reason : And not a peep out of some of you. WHAT ABOUT THE NBER?!!1 ]

12/15/2009 2:47:25 PM

The Stock Market Doesn't Care About Homebuilders Anymore

Quote :

"Stock market investors don't care about homebuilders anymore. For years, there was a surprising correlation between the National Association of Home Builders' builder confidence and one-year lagging returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index. A 2006 Fortune article pointed out that from 1995 through 2005, builder confidence was a near-perfect predictor of future stock market returns. But, as happens all too often, the Fortune story was a contrary indicator. The correlation it noted broke down in 2006. The home builders index had begun to dramatically decline in 2005, but a year later the S&P kept climbing. Eventually, stocks did follow the home builder index downward but the timing and the degree of the declines no longer tracked. As our chart of the day shows, the S&P-HMI correlation didn’t fare any better this year. The home builder index continued to decline in 2008, completely failing to predict the rally in the S&P in 2009. It’s as though stocks and housing have just decoupled. This year, the home builder index briefly ticked upward before falling again. Unfortunately, this tells us nothing reliable about the stock market for 2010. (Unless, of course, this article is also a contrary indicator and the correlation comes roaring back next year.)"

Worth contemplating, be interested to hear the thoughts of the more economically literate on TWW about this one.

12/15/2009 6:24:54 PM

Quote :

"Just look at it this way... if our military suddenly disappeared, China would have a lot more room to try and dick us around regarding the debt."

I am keenly curious. Your imagination clearly bests mine, might I have some examples of how they might do that? As I understand it, if our military went away, theirs would get bigger to replace it. We as countries spend our military might doing exactly the same damn things: fighting pirates, keeping small nations from attacking each other, etc. The only difference is the Chinese are better at this than we are, because their manpower is cheaper and most international problems can only be solved by overwhelming manpower.

12/15/2009 10:55:49 PM

Quote :

"Politicians would love to see the rebirth of manufacturing in this country -- new factories filled with unionized workers, taking home a salary that can support a family. But it's not going to happen, at least according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a recent study, the bureau estimated employment change between 2008 and 2018. The public sector will grow. Healthcare will grow. But manufacturing? Not so much."

12/16/2009 9:29:52 PM

^ that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. I don’t know why politicians fight so hard for manufacturing jobs, when the future of American prosperity isn’t in manufacturing.

12/16/2009 9:44:05 PM

Quote :

"Worth contemplating, be interested to hear the thoughts of the more economically literate on TWW about this one."

I'm not sure the homebuilders confidence index is the best measure of "investors not caring". If you plost the YTD results of the IYR vs the S&P, they are fantastically similar

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AIYR

Now, the IYR includes more than just homebuilders, so you could also add any of the individual homebuilder stocks from DR Horton to Pulte and get a mixed picture of under and outperformance of the S&P 500.

12/16/2009 9:51:09 PM

Quote :

"Last week the White House held a jobs summit with academics and lawmakers to come up with a strategy for job creation. The result of their cogitation was presented by President Barack Obama on Tuesday during a speech at the Brookings Institution. The plan includes a wide-ranging new jobs program focused on infrastructure investment, small-business initiatives, and aid to state and local governments. Sound familiar? It should, because this new plan is nothing more than a repeat of the first job creation program—the so-called stimulus plan—signed into law by the administration back in February. Back then, the White House claimed that if we passed the $789 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, unemployment would be contained and jobs would be created immediately. The chart below illustrates how well, or not, that job creation program has worked so far. Using the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and data from the Administration’s website Recovery.gov, it shows the number of jobs lost and the number of jobs “created or saved” between February and October 2009 by state. This chart also assumes, for the sake of argument, that the concept of a “created or saved” job is not a completely fictitious and unverifiable metric of the effectiveness of the stimulus."

http://reason.com/archives/2009/12/11/did-the-stimulus-create-jobs

12/17/2009 5:45:14 PM

The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries.

Quote :

"IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday."

Quote :

"In a discussion on the global role of the dollar, Zhu told an academic audience that it was inevitable that the dollar would continue to fall in value because Washington continued to issue more Treasuries to finance its deficit spending."

Quote :

""The US current account deficit is falling as residents' savings increase, so its trade turnover is falling, which means the US is supplying fewer dollars to the rest of the world," he added. "The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries.""

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/print.asp?id=423054

When the rest of the world stops buying treasuries, we're in very serious trouble. We'll either have to default or print money. Either option is going to lead to complete disaster, so there really is no way out at this point. It's just a matter of how bad we want it to be. We could default, which is more honest, and accept that we can't continue our current levels of spending. I don't think that's going to happen, though.

12/19/2009 12:20:01 PM