so what do i pick now?

sharks or single digit win or loss?

1/15/2011 10:21:19 PM

Well for what it's worth I picked single digits. Right now it looks good as Boise is actually down by 5 at half, although a 15 point second half swing is not out of the question.

1/15/2011 11:38:34 PM

I went with the sharks back to W1 how soon till I blow it again haha

1/16/2011 10:15:07 AM

fuck you too notre dame

1/16/2011 2:20:54 PM

Agreed

1/16/2011 2:26:59 PM

I wonder how liable, if any amount, ESPN is for screw-ups they have. This is more a question out of curiosity than anything, seeing as how I have never gotten above W7 since I started playing several months back.

For instance, (I think) 2 months ago, the very first pick of the month was a soccer match (I remember it vividly because the team I picked was called Young Boys... hehe). Anyway, apparently it was snowing there, and they put the game on hold for 5-10 minutes to shovel the field. I did not watch the game, but from reading discussions in the chat rooms, it was quite clear that the intention the entire way was to temporarily suspend play and resume in a very short amount of time. During this 5-10 minute period, the StreakMaster scored the match as a PUSH, despite the fact they started up in a very short amount of time and the Young Boys ended up winning the game.

I am not entirely sure if the process is automated or not, or if the StreakMaster has to manually enter results. I do know it seems very arbitrary at times.... I have seen a suspended golf match left up for hours and hours before it is canceled, and I have seen other instances like this where a prop was locked prematurely. I have also seen (on a few occasions) the StreakMaster go back and change the results of a match because of an error in scoring.

It just made me wonder, what if the situation above was instead, one of the last games of the month, and the decision to cancel cost someone a million dollars? I wonder if ESPN is at all liable for their actions, or if the potential winner would just be up shit creek.

1/17/2011 6:29:23 AM

I had a push changed to an L last night. Scoring mistake but still I woke up expecting to be on W3 and instead was back to W1

1/17/2011 8:42:46 AM

^^ i'm sure it's in the rules/terms that they can do whatever they want

1/17/2011 11:27:14 AM

And down goes the leader on W22. He got Kemba walkered just as I did on my first pick this month hence why I was on uconn I learned from it

1/17/2011 5:43:27 PM

Let's go UCONN women!

1/17/2011 5:44:42 PM

If I were to pick every game tonight this is what it would look like:

Jackson St.: Single Digit Win
UNC: AOR
Tennis: No fucking clue.
Pitt Panthers
Boston Celtics
Norfolk St.
Tennis: Probably 6 games or fewer but once again, no fucking clue.
Baylor: 3PM
Russel Westbrook

Granted, I probably won't pick any of these because I am on W4, which is pretty good for me, but if I were going to, I would put the most confidence in the Jackson St. and Norfolk St. picks.

Also, LOL at the Japan game this morning. 5-0 Japan which puts me on a W10 for soccer. That and $20 will get me a handjob from Bob the trannie down the street.

1/17/2011 5:59:12 PM

Im on Pitt for the 7 oclock slot myself at least at the moment.

1/17/2011 6:12:56 PM

why thank you uconn women. i appreciate the win.

1/17/2011 8:55:57 PM

Quote :

"Jackson St.: Single Digit Win UNC: AOR Tennis: No fucking clue. Pitt Panthers Boston Celtics Norfolk St. Tennis: Probably 6 games or fewer but once again, no fucking clue. Baylor: 3PM Russel Westbrook Granted, I probably won't pick any of these because I am on W4, which is pretty good for me, but if I were going to, I would put the most confidence in the Jackson St. and Norfolk St. picks."

Well, 6-2, for .7500 (including 2-0 in my confidence picks), which is a little bit higher than what I have been running this month. The big problem is having the balls to actually click the checkmark and put the streak on the line. It seems everytime I do something random happens and I am back at L1. Here's to hoping the Aussies don't fail me today.

1/18/2011 7:47:42 AM

I need to learn never to pick players or teams I dislike already... fuck you Kobe! Appears W4 is my new W3 where I am destined to lose every time haha.

1/18/2011 9:51:52 AM

like my W2 this month

1/18/2011 8:05:36 PM

we're on the streak tomorrow!!

NCAAB (#5 Duke @ NC State): What will be the GAME RESULT? 7:00 PM

Duke: Wins by Double Digits -- 97.2%
Duke: Single Digit Win or Loss -- 2.8%

1/18/2011 10:23:19 PM

Tennessee was an easy pick today, 3 pointers, and they won!

I keep forgetting this shit, 3-0 on the month.

1/18/2011 10:31:11 PM

fuck me. great pick on tennessee but then i blow it with kentucky.

and LOL at the state prop.

[Edited on January 18, 2011 at 10:34 PM. Reason : .]

1/18/2011 10:34:03 PM

Here's a gem from the NCSU-Duke prop discussion board:

Quote :

"NC State has one of the worst coaches in Division 1 Basketball. He is fat, black, and is name is Sidney Lowe. He has a team loaded with 4 and 5 star talent, however he does not know how to use them. If this was a pickup, playground game, NC State would have the talent to hang with Duke and possibly win half the time. But Krzyzewski is a waaaaay better coach than this round man Sidney the joke Coach Lowe, so Duke by about 15."

Quote :

"this prop should be duke: win by triple digits!! state is terrible!! "

1/18/2011 11:37:43 PM

Funny because it's true if I'm on a L I'm going with duke double digits haha

1/18/2011 11:41:07 PM

Any thoughts on the early soccer match between Iran and UAE? I read Iran will be resting some starters as they are through to the next round already. May have to lay off this one feels like a 0-0 draw but if Iran gets one I'm not sure UAE can score

1/19/2011 9:50:32 AM

I'm not touching it but if I had to pick I think UAE is a good play.

1/19/2011 11:36:19 AM

One of the things I have been doing the last few months, is trying to make my picks fit three criteria.

First, the pick I make has to be at least better than the Vegas line. For instance, the NCSU game is at -10.0 to -10.5 on Duke right now, and the prop is a double digit win for Duke, so basically you are betting on the Vegas odds. Contrast that with the Oklahoma State game, where OSU is about a 4.5 point favorite and the ESPN prop is straight up, so you are getting 4.5 points on Vegas, which is pretty good. Sometimes you will find a pick on their that differs from the Vegas lines by 10 or more points (last night Marquette was favored by 20 points and they were matched up against Depaul free throws, which ended up being 6, but had averaged around 10ish).

Secondly, I try my very best to ignore the ESPN percentages. Those are made up by a bunch of people who really know nothing about sports whatsoever, or by people who have nothing invested in the game (they are either on a losing streak or a very small winning streak), or by people jumping on name recognition (see the Duke/NCSU game today).

Lastly, I try and look at recent trends, both with the props and with the teams. For instance, just on looking back the last couple of weeks, I only saw one time where the prop was offered in free throws versus margin of victory, in which the free throws side won. That was the FSU/Duke game (where I admittedly took FSU because I thought they had a very good chance of winning outright). If you pick against a Big Ten team at home, you are asking for trouble. These are just a few rules I have been going with. If I get time I am actually going to start keeping track of statistical picks (ie what percentage of time does AOR win over 15+ margin of victory, etc).

I dunno, maybe it is just luck, but after doing these things I have managed to compile a winning percentage near .600 last month and near .700 this month, and that is with making quite a few picks.

All that being said I don't think any of the picks look that good today. Despite OSU being a 4.5 point favorite, looking at their record against quality teams, it is not good. Their one good win was against KSU, but they have gotten blown out a couple times too. Good luck!

1/19/2011 12:02:50 PM

Whoops I meant to cancel my UAE pick but got busy at work back to L1 haha

1/19/2011 1:02:07 PM

What do you all think about the picks tomorrow?

I am thinking Maryland at home looks pretty good. Wisconsin winning margin isn't bad either.

It looks like everyone is jumping all over Rutgers at home against USF, but honestly, USF has played a lot of teams pretty close so I am going to steer clear of that one.

1/19/2011 10:46:23 PM

Those are the three I like rutgers because both teams are pretty bad but that's a long road trip for USF. Maryland at home and Wisconsin are both high on my list as well but I'm also sitting on L3 after a terrible day yesterday

1/20/2011 9:14:12 AM

Rutgers


and congrats to akaseinfeld on his 2nd * of the month!

1/20/2011 6:01:39 PM

I just hope the rutgers game finishes up fast enough to get one of those 9:05 picks in

1/20/2011 6:08:26 PM

Rutgers here too.

1/20/2011 6:19:34 PM

motherFUCK this game. i'm so tired of losing this month.

1/21/2011 11:51:19 PM

I can't get much to go right this month either. Not as bad as you but fuck it's annoying.

I'm ready for February.

1/22/2011 12:06:27 AM

yeah, same here. it seems like the turn of the calendar page can make all the difference.

next month we'll probably win 70%. it's strange really.

1/22/2011 12:09:39 AM

exactly haha. i'm ready for Feb right now.

and whoever the hell has the w12...that's fucking impressive dude.

1/22/2011 12:13:59 AM

This has been my best month by FAR yet I am still stuck at W6.

Whoever has the W12 is like 13-2 in NCAA basketball, which is very impressive.

1/22/2011 12:30:20 AM

I think nothing22 holds the TWW group record at W18.

My best is W16.

1/22/2011 1:33:00 AM

Mine is W4 maybe I can finally get my little red star this weekend

1/22/2011 8:20:36 AM

L3 looks good right about now...

1/22/2011 11:54:28 AM

I think the best I ever did was a w9 lol. I've never got that blue star

Going with JMU for a w2 hopefully. Glad I stayed away from Tottenham earlier.

1/22/2011 11:58:15 AM

yeah, that spurs pick was a dud.

i'm taking tOSU. hopefully they'll stay hot, but illinois is a tough place to play.
they'll probably win and i'll just continue on my merry losing way.

1/22/2011 12:01:40 PM

I liked newcastle but really wanna get W5 so stayed away for now

Im also on OSU tough game but they just have more talent and Sullinger will make the difference.



[Edited on January 22, 2011 at 12:03 PM. Reason : .]

1/22/2011 12:02:04 PM

i hope so. you need that star! and i just need to get back on a win streak.

1/22/2011 12:03:29 PM

Will wait for that result to come in to make a choice on later games. I like both Duke winning margin and kansas single digit win or loss but if Im on W4 I may get pushed away will see how I feel at that time haha.

1/22/2011 12:11:39 PM

i had a w14 or so a while back... long gone are those days though

1/22/2011 12:42:11 PM

Star me bitches! It's about time haha

1/22/2011 6:19:04 PM

Man I am really about to break all my rules for tomorrow and take Wisconsin over Northwestern, even though Northwestern is at home and Vegas only has Wisconsin as a 1 point favorite.

Gah, someone explain to me why this is a bad pick to make.

1/22/2011 6:25:40 PM

I haven't researched it any but sounds like a good pick to me

1/22/2011 7:34:26 PM

Wow spurs getting their asses handed to them I guess I won't be seeing W6

1/22/2011 9:42:01 PM

Damn, I was going to take NO, but got scared and took MSU instead.

[Edited on January 22, 2011 at 9:55 PM. Reason : And they're down 10 at halftime. ]

1/22/2011 9:50:42 PM

It's obviously very easy to rationalize why I didn't pick SA after the game is over, however SA screwed me earlier this month losing at the Knicks (plus NO looked bad-ass last night.)

I am such a sucker. The golf pick tomorrow has the three leaders at -24, -24, and -22, and if any of these guys win the tournament, you win the prop. Granted, there is a metric fuckwad of dudes below them and within striking distance (-21 and below) but jeez, this looks so tempting.

1/22/2011 10:27:47 PM