^ How long did it take you to come up with that, hippy? BTW, use the side door.

12/3/2007 4:06:47 AM

A post, a la hooksaw:

Surge in Gasoline Prices Pushes Consumer Inflation Up by Largest Amount in More Than 2 Years

Quote :

" WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer inflation surged by the largest amount in more than two years in November, led by gasoline prices. The cost of clothing, airline tickets and prescription drugs also jumped. The Labor Department said its closely watched Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since a 1.2 percent surge in September 2005, when the country was hit by rising energy costs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina [emphasis added]. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also accelerated in November, rising by 0.3 percent, the biggest increase in 10 months. The 0.8 percent rise in consumer prices was worse than the 0.6 percent advance that economists had expected. With one month to go, inflation in 2007 is rising at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, far above the 2.5 percent increase in 2006 [emphasis added]. The surge in inflation adds another risk to an economy that is already struggling under the weight of a meltdown in housing, a severe credit crunch and faltering consumer confidence. The worry is that the jump in energy costs will leave consumers with less money to spend on other items, worsening the slowdown in economic growth that is already happening. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told National Public Radio in an interview broadcast Friday that the odds of a recession are "clearly rising" with economic growth "getting close to stall speed" [emphasis added]. Many economists believe that economic growth in the current October-December quarter could fall below 1 percent at an annual rate, sharply below the 4.9 percent rate of growth in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve, trying to ward off an outright recession, cut a key interest rate this week for the third time this year. The Fed also announced a coordinated response with central banks around the world to pump more money into the banking system to combat a severe credit squeeze which has made it harder for consumers and businesses to get loans. Energy costs were up 5.7 percent in November, with gasoline prices rising by 9.3 percent, the biggest increase since May. Gasoline prices have been pushed higher by a renewed surge in global energy costs that pushed crude oil prices close to $100 per barrel last month. Food costs were 0.3 percent in November, led higher by big increases in fruit and vegetable prices. Outside of food and energy, clothing prices, which have been falling most of this year, surged by 0.8 percent, the biggest rise since April 1999. Airline tickets were up 2.6 percent, representing the price hikes imposed by airlines because of their own rising fuel bills. The cost of medical care, one of the leading areas for price gains, was up 0.4 percent last month, led by a 0.8 percent jump in prescription drug costs."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071214/economy.html

I know that, like Iraq, some here are invested in the defeat of the U.S. economy, but the economy apparently has other ideas. The good news just keeps rolling in.

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 9:49 AM. Reason : ]

12/14/2007 9:35:15 AM

^ Yes, the good news does just keep rolling in--despite your incessant negativity.

U.S. dollar up on strong economic data

Quote :

"NEW YORK, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. dollar rose against the euro and other major currencies on Thursday after reports showed the U.S. economy will not slip into a recession despite a persistent credit crunch. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose in November by the largest amount in six months. A Labor Department report showed a drop in new claims filed by those seeking jobless benefits. The data, supporting the view that the U.S. economy is still solid, reduced the chance of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/14/content_7247127.htm

Dollar rallies, cheered by strong US data

Quote :

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar advanced on Thursday after strong U.S. retail sales and producer prices data strengthened the view that the U.S. economy will not slip into a recession despite a persistent credit crunch. The robust numbers underpinned the Federal Reserve's modest quarter-percentage point interest rate cut on Tuesday amid widespread criticism that the U.S. central bank could have done more to ease the pain from the credit crisis. 'Today's data support the Fed's view that the economy is still quite solid and that they can't just lower by 50 basis points, as many people had wanted,' said Joe Francomano, vice president of foreign exchange at Erste Bank in New York."

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2007-12-13T173020Z_01_N04526731_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

12/14/2007 11:10:38 AM

What 'incessant negativity'? This is only my fourth post in this thread.

And before you get too happy about the dollar, let's put your happy rising dollar news in context:

12/14/2007 11:19:51 AM

^ Many believe that the US government has been allowing the dollar to weaken to boost exports. I wasn't necessarily focusing on the dollar, but the news reports were.

If you had looked a bit closer, you would have seen a lot of positive news about the US economy:

Quote :

"U.S. economy will not slip into a recession despite a persistent credit crunch."

Quote :

"The Commerce Department said retail sales rose in November by the largest amount in six months."

Quote :

"The data, supporting the view that the U.S. economy is still solid, reduced the chance of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year."

Quote :

"strong U.S. retail sales and producer prices data"

Quote :

"The robust numbers"

Quote :

"Today's data support the Fed's view that the economy is still quite solid"

http://youtube.com/watch?v=AvS8IOV1XqQ

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 11:32 AM. Reason : ]

12/14/2007 11:30:30 AM

If the economy is so damn solid, why the rate cut?

12/14/2007 11:34:43 AM

^ Ask the Fed, Debbie Downer--frankly, I don't give a shit if you won't listen to the economic experts. And keep hoping for a bad economy so you can bash Bush some more.

12/14/2007 11:40:13 AM

^^^ At some point accentuating the positive turns into wearing rose colored glasses.

As for the experts:

Quote :

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told National Public Radio in an interview broadcast Friday that the odds of a recession are "clearly rising" with economic growth "getting close to stall speed""

Clearly, there are--at the least--disagreements amongst the experts.

Quote :

"And keep hoping for a bad economy so you can bash Bush some more."

Keep telling yourself that others are hoping for a bad economy. Since the first page of this thread you've pushed this line, but you've failed to name one person on this board that's wishing for a bad economy. As for bashing Bush, the only time Bush has entered this thread is when you mention him.

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 11:46 AM. Reason : ]

12/14/2007 11:46:33 AM

^ Oh, please.

1. Greenspan has yet to acknowledge his part in the housing market problems.

2. Clearly, I was addressing Chance's post. And I believe that he would see the economy go into recession just to be proven right.

3. Rightly or wrongly, US presidents receive the credit or the blame for the economy--so Bush's involvement is implied in this context if nothing else. But Bush has received plenty of direct blame in TSB for any correction or problem whatsoever in the US economy--I know this to be true.

12/14/2007 11:57:52 AM

Quote :

"1. Greenspan has yet to acknowledge his part in the housing market problems."

Are you seriously trying to suggest that Greenspan, who was Chairman of the Fed for nineteen years, is not an expert on the economy, or that his opinion may not be valid?

Quote :

"2. Clearly, I was addressing Chance's post."

Were you addressing Chance's post when you made the OP four pages ago?

Quote :

"so Bush's involvement is implied in this context if nothing else."

So, Bush bashing is implied? In other words, no matter what others say, you're going to interpret that as Bush bashing?

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 12:10 PM. Reason : ]

12/14/2007 12:08:51 PM

^
1. Of course Greenspan is an expert. But a lot of his commentary now is lacking a critique of his own part in things. And--like Bush--Greenspan is working on his legacy:

A 'Disappointed' Greenspan Lashes Out at Bush's Economic Policies

Quote :

"WASHINGTON, Sept. 16 — After nearly two decades as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan wants to solidify his standing in history. In an interview timed with the release of his memoir Monday, Mr. Greenspan sought to distance himself from the economic policies of President Bush and refute critics who say his policies at the Fed contributed to the housing bubble and bust that is now roiling the economy."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/business/17greenspan.html

2. "Bush's involvement is implied" and has been directly asserted ad absurdum here. I mean, this is TSB, for God's sake. Are you really going to feign outrage that Bush-bashing could possibly happen. . .here?! GASP?!

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 12:26 PM. Reason : ]

12/14/2007 12:25:33 PM

So, you're saying that Greenspan's opinion is no longer valid?

Of course Bush is bashed in TSB. But after four pages of you saying that 'some' want the economy to falter to gain Bush-bashing fodder and four pages of others saying 'Who?', you've failed to name a single person.

Now you're saying that no one has to actually say anything--their Bush-bashing is implied, regardless of what they say.

12/14/2007 12:38:56 PM

^ Actually, I posted nothing of the sort.

12/14/2007 12:48:48 PM

Posted nothing of what sort?

Be more specific.

12/14/2007 12:52:10 PM

Quote :

"2. Clearly, I was addressing Chance's post. And I believe that he would see the economy go into recession just to be proven right. "

You have to be one of the dumbest assholes I have ever seen post. I've barely said anything about Bush in this thread, other than he appointed Greenspan. Furthermore, you have to be a retarded monkey to think that any home owner that is supporting himself would like to see a recession. I've entirely too much at stake to see this economy go sour. Just today we received some really negative news at my company.

Maybe I should bash Bush for that? You stupid idiot.

Anyway, back on topic. Here is some more impressive news

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Quote :

" The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in November before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 210.177 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in November 2006."

Quote :

" On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.8 percent in November, its largest advance since a 1.2 percent rise in September 2005."

If you remove the Katrina induced gain, you have to go all the way back to Jan 1990 to find a similar increase.

The 0.3% core gain was the most since 2001.

Real impressive

12/14/2007 1:22:12 PM

12/14/2007 1:27:29 PM

inflation is good for me help my stocks rise and decrease the Real Dollar costs of my student loans.

12/14/2007 2:50:00 PM

Quote :

"inflation is good for me help my stocks rise and decrease the Real Dollar costs of my student loans"

So long as profits and your income rise in tandem. Though, unless you bought stocks with borrowed money I don't see any reason to prefer an inflation induced rise to no rise.

Quote :

"Clearly, I was addressing Chance's post. And I believe that he would see the economy go into recession just to be proven right."

I can't address the personal biases of Chance but I think that the probability of a US recession in the next nine months is quite high. I would rate Greenspan as being on the more optimistic end of the forecasting spectrum.

The debate among many economists has shifted from whether to how large of a recession and is there anything the Fed can do to prevent a global downturn.

The Fed is cutting rates because it recognizes that the credit situation we have is dire. One of the big variables I look at is Commerical Paper spreads and they are higher now than in August. This is does not bode well.

Just for the record my forecast is for the US to enter recession in late Q2, early Q3 of 2008.

12/14/2007 3:00:32 PM

You're just saying that becuase you hate freedom and you hate Bush

12/14/2007 3:05:38 PM

hooksaw, please come give us more great news about the economy.

12/17/2007 7:57:24 AM

Hey Guys! Let's lower the funds rate some more. The "official" inflation rate is only 9.6% (.8x12). Real inflation is higher. Is your paycheck keeping up?

The World's Central Banks have screwed us & themselves. The joint effort they announced a couple of days ago is big trouble.

http://tinyurl.com/3bttfm


Also, it's pretty clear that hooksaw is hanging out with Alan Greenspan and Uncle Ben with their heads in the sand.

Quote :

"By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last update: 11:05 a.m. EST Dec. 14, 2007 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer inflation increased at the fastest pace in more than two years in November, and analysts said the report wouldn't sit well with the Federal Reserve. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November, led by higher prices for gasoline, the Labor Department reported Friday. But energy wasn't the entire story. Prices of apparel, drugs, housing, and airline fares also spiked. As a result, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, its biggest advance since January. The figures raise concern that inflationary pressures are increasing and could limit the room for the Fed to cut interest rates to counter the expected economic slowing over the next few quarters. "That will only reinforce the stance of the inflation hawks who are still focusing on prices first, credit second," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "Of course, the next meeting is not until the end of January, so let's not worry too now much about what the Fed will do then. The markets and the economic data will take care of that," Naroff said. The numbers were worse than expected. Economists were forecasting the CPI would climb 0.7% and the core rate would rise 0.2%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. Economists said the weaker dollar was also playing a role in boosting inflation. The core CPI has now risen 2.3% in the past year, up from the 2.2% rate seen a month ago. This is the fastest annual rate since April. The overall CPI is up 4.3% in the past year, the fastest pace since June 2006. One troubling note was that wages, adjusted for inflation, have fallen for two straight months. "Real earnings growth is absolutely essential if consumer spending is to continue to grow. Otherwise kiss the expansion goodbye," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group. Behind the data Energy prices rose 5.7%, the fastest pace since March. Gasoline prices increased 9.3% and are up 37.1% in the past year. Natural-gas prices rose 0.9%. Energy prices are up 21.4% in the past year. Housing prices rose 0.4% in November. Owners-equivalent rent rose 0.3% in the month. Transportation costs rose 2.9% on higher fuel bills. New-car prices rose 0.1%, and air fares jumped 2.6%. Apparel prices rose 0.8%, their biggest gain since April 1999. Medical-care prices rose 0.4%. Hospital-services prices rose 0.6%, while drug prices rose 0.8%, the biggest gain since January. Food prices rose 0.3%, led by higher prices for fresh vegetables and fruit and dairy."

12/17/2007 8:19:43 AM

Quote :

"The joint effort they announced a couple of days ago is big trouble"

I think the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the big effort that was annouced a few days ago, is a step in the right direction.

Its not going to increase the total supply of money but instead change how that money gets into the system.

A simple (if slightly inaccurate) way of looking at it is that the Fed used to loan money to banks and only took Treasury Bills as collateral. This put a premium on owning Treasury Bills for troubled banks and thus we see the marked drop in T-Bill rates durring the crisis.

Instead, now the Fed is going to accept a wide variety of AAA rated bonds as collateral. Hopefully, this should give investors confindence to put their money somewhere other than T-Bills.

12/17/2007 8:39:04 AM

I'll put this here because I don't think a thread titled "The Impressive Californian Economy" would get many posts. However, California is the largest state economy by far and make up a significant chunk of the U.S. economy.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/turn-out-lights-california-party-is.html

12/17/2007 10:13:12 AM

Why Economists Are Betting A Recession Won't Happen

Quote :

"With the financial markets in turmoil and house prices sagging, there is a lot of talk that a recession is all but inevitable. Yet there's a case that the economy might avoid a painful downturn. In the latest WSJ.com survey of economists, forecasters on average put the chance of a recession -- often defined as two straight quarterly declines in gross domestic product -- at 38%. That's the highest in more than three years, but the forecasters' best bet right now is that the U.S. will skirt a recession. 'A lot of the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy seems a bit unappreciated,' says Citigroup economist Steven Wieting. 'It's not clear that this is so large a burden that we can't muddle through this' [emphasis added]. The Fed is on the case. The Fed, which has cut its main target for short-term interest rates by a full percentage point since August, is expected to ease rates through the middle of next year to cushion the economy from housing and credit woes, and officials are experimenting with new tools in an effort to ease the credit crunch and encourage banks to keep lending to worthy borrowers. The Fed's actions may have already helped. Recessions typically don't begin when rates are this low, says Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. The federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, peaked at an inflation-adjusted 3% in the current cycle, far lower than the 4% peak before the 2001 recession and the 5.3% high before the 1990-91 downturn. 'We're putting a lot of faith in the Fed,' Mr. LaVorgna says. 'A proactive Fed and low rates to begin with are very powerful factors behind keeping us out of recession.' Strong global growth is propping up the U.S. economy. Global economic growth is raising demand for U.S. goods, offsetting softer domestic consumption. Emerging markets, which buy more than half of U.S. exports, continue to grow, some at an accelerating pace, even as industrialized economies cool. A weakening dollar -- in part due to the Fed's easing of interest rates -- will help carry the economy through its rough patch. It will help make U.S. exports more attractive to foreign consumers, and help U.S. producers that compete with foreign producers. Moreover, foreign companies may capitalize further on the falling dollar by investing more in the U.S. -- for example, by buying stock in American companies or setting up their own factories in the U.S. The economy is still creating jobs, supporting incomes. The job market is signaling a modest slowdown in hiring but not a sharp increase in layoffs. While jobs continue to bleed from the housing and finance sectors, growth in service jobs remains robust and most other sectors remain afloat. Economists in the WSJ.com survey predict an average monthly gain of about 84,000 nonfarm jobs over the next year, which would keep incomes growing and keep consumers spending. Shoppers defied many forecasts in November, opening their wallets despite concerns about the economy. That suggests the credit crunch and housing declines haven't hit consumers as hard as some analysts expected. Outside of housing, consumers and businesses can borrow at low rates. Moreover, people with the worst credit problems -- the ones least likely to get additional credit -- aren't the biggest spenders. The housing downturn's pain will continue, but has already done much of its damage to growth. For much of this decade, residential construction has been a significant driver of economic growth. But since last year, when home building began to tumble, housing's contribution has dropped substantially. Now, the share of economic growth due to residential-sector investment is so low that it has little room to shave GDP further. One of the biggest questions hanging over the economy remains: How far is the housing market from its bottom? Though many major markets are experiencing steep price declines, much of the country is OK. The S&P/Case-Shiller index, a popular measure of home prices that has shown steep price declines, has limited geographic coverage -- perhaps overstating the extent to which the housing sector's declines will weigh on consumers. 'The states that are having a hard time are where there's been a lot of speculation,' says Mark Nielson, chief economist at MacroEcon Global Advisors, which sees economic growth at more than 3% through next year. 'Their economies probably will not do as well as the rest of the country.' Government spending remains strong. And then there is the government -- not just Washington but state and local governments. Spending by state and local governments is contributing 25% of GDP growth this year -- and that is before an election year when officials will resist making cutbacks. 'State and local spending is kind of an unsung hero here,' Mr. LaVorgna says. It tends to lag federal spending and should continue to perform well next year even if it slows in 2009, he says. The odds of recession have risen, and the economy's skies are cloudy. But there is a chance the skies will be sunnier by the middle of next year."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119784514764832443.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Edited on December 18, 2007 at 2:21 PM. Reason : .]

12/18/2007 2:19:16 PM

It's a liberal conspiracy spreading the recession horn. They are just motivated by the quest to help Hillary win the election and turn us into the Socialist States of America by discrediting Bush's economic agenda!!!

Right on hooksaw

12/18/2007 2:30:47 PM

Quote :

"In the latest WSJ.com survey of economists, forecasters on average put the chance of a recession -- often defined as two straight quarterly declines in gross domestic product -- at 38%."

This survey includes business economists, in particular bank economists, who rarely forecast a recession. The joke is that the consensus of bank economists has never accurately predicted a recession. I am not sure if thats literally true but it doesn't sound too off the mark.

This is a sign that things are nicht sehr gut in the European money markets.

Quote :

"The European Central Bank and Bank of England flooded money markets with funds on Tuesday as the UK central bank chief warned of a possible "self-reinforcing" downward spiral in credit. The Bank of England (BoE) charged a minimum bid rate of 5.36 percent for its offer of 10 billion pounds of 3-month money, as part of a coordinated action with other central banks to ease market tensions by offering cash at favorable rates. The money was taken up, though demand was muted. Previous similar auctions had failed as the BoE had set a minimum rate way above the main lending rate and no bank wanted to be seen as desperate for cash. "In the last four weeks, banks themselves have been worried that the impact of their reluctance to lend will lead to a sharper slowdown in the United States," Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told a parliamentary committee. "That concern is a serious one because it does hold out the prospect that there will be a self-reinforcing downturn in credit and activity." The ECB scrapped the usual upper limit on how much it lends to banks in Tuesday's refinancing operation, offering two-week money to ensure lending rates stayed close to its target of 4 percent."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22307927

12/18/2007 2:42:27 PM

Sometimes I look around and realize that if everyone in the workplace was given the ultimatum to work 10% harder or get fired, 95% of them could work harder without making any fundamental changes to their work ethic besides FOCUSING.

We can stave off the recession with fucking adderall. Just tell people to work for a few months so they can save their house, car, and life savings.

12/18/2007 7:58:42 PM

Wow, that's a very communistic attitude you've got there.

I think I heard the same thing from Joseph Stalin.

12/18/2007 8:45:46 PM

Not really.

I just think a lot of people are overpaid.

Prices are sticky on the way down.


When shit is on the way down, they should work a little harder to run in place.

Otherwise we get mass layoffs and the spillover affects the people worth their salaries.

12/19/2007 12:18:59 AM

People like capitalism until capitalism happens to them

12/19/2007 12:22:18 AM

Quote :

"This survey includes business economists, in particular bank economists, who rarely forecast a recession. The joke is that the consensus of bank economists has never accurately predicted a recession. I am not sure if thats literally true but it doesn't sound too off the mark."

kwsmith2

If you had any idea what you were talking about, you would know that economists in general have never been very good at predicting recessions:

Quote :

"'I don't think we, as a profession, ever had an ability to forecast recessions,' said Jeffrey A. Frankel, professor of economics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official arbiter of recessions. 'It's hard enough to know when a recession has started, looking at it with hindsight.'"

Quote :

"As Yoram K. Bauman, an economist who teaches at the University of Washington and performs stand-up comedy, summed up an often-used line: 'Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions.'"

Quote :

"The Economist reported that in March 2001 -- the month the last recession began -- 95 percent of American economists believed that there wouldn't be a recession. In February 2001, the 35 professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia collectively predicted growth at an annual rate of 2.2 percent for the second quarter of 2001 and 3.3 percent for the third quarter."

Quote :

"The complexity, dynamism and diversity of the United States economy also make forecasting recessions difficult. In small countries, which may depend on a single export, like oil, or where a natural disaster can wreak catastrophic results for the entire economy, it is comparatively easy to determine when and how one of these factors can cause a contraction, Mr. Frankel of Harvard said. But in the United States, whose overall economy has responded so well in recent years to a series of external shocks -- from 9/11 to Hurricane Katrina -- it's rarely sufficient to focus on a single factor. Christina Romer, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, says economists can't predict recessions for the same reason stock market analysts can't accurately predict market crashes."

http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/news/news.cfm?doc_id=7059

[Edited on December 19, 2007 at 2:19 PM. Reason : .]

12/19/2007 2:16:06 PM

^^None of the guys you quoted are bank economists.

Consider me unimpressed by the US Economy right now. Fiscal irresponsibility on a personal and federal level will bite us in the ass in 2008.

[Edited on December 19, 2007 at 2:50 PM. Reason : 2]

12/19/2007 2:28:51 PM

Quote :

"kwsmith2 If you had any idea what you were talking about, you would know that economists in general have never been very good at predicting recessions:"

Are you a retard? You made this comment, and a couple posts above yours he said this:

Quote :

"This survey includes business economists, in particular bank economists, who rarely forecast a recession. The joke is that the consensus of bank economists has never accurately predicted a recession. I am not sure if thats literally true but it doesn't sound too off the mark."

It's like, some twilight zone where you read a couple things people say, form an opinion about them, then go find some articles and shit to post to try and discredit whatever made up position/stance you gave them

then

then cry when we call you out for it

insert some rolleyes

wash rinse repeat

12/19/2007 2:38:46 PM

^ STFU, you bald-headed idiot.

Quote :

"in particular bank economists"

kwsmith2

Quote :

"economists in general"

hooksaw

Distinction--know it, learn it, live it.

[Edited on December 19, 2007 at 2:43 PM. Reason : .]

12/19/2007 2:40:39 PM

HAHAHHAHAHAHA

HHAAHHAHAHAHA


rofl

WAIT

NO

HOLY SHIT

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Really?!

12/19/2007 2:44:39 PM

^^ Dude, hooksaw, I think it's time you admitted that you went into this discussion without an open mind. The fact that you started a thread titled "The Impressive US Economy" proves it. You can cherry pick stats and figures that look good, but overall there's no good argument to be made saying that the economy is "impressive." That is a bold-faced lie if I've ever heard one.

I've stayed out of the discussion largely due to my overall ignorance of economics on a grand scale. Still, there's no getting around the fact that the Canadian dollar is now worth more than ours. Please, for the love of God, repeat that back to yourself. The very concept would have caused an eruption of laughter in years past. I still can't fathom that it's true.

I'll grant you that a devalued dollar doesn't necessarily slow down the economy. It does however hit lower and middle income families exceptionally hard. The increased cost of living, adjusted for inflation obviously, is the main reason for the current downturn. We may avoid an all-out recession, but impressive?

Sorry dude, you're asking for the flaming and trolling you've received in this thread. You can't claim left-wing bias when your stated position sucks.

12/19/2007 6:08:36 PM

^

Quote :

"I'll grant you that a devalued dollar doesn't necessarily slow down the economy. It does however hit lower and middle income families exceptionally hard."

You mean by allowing them to keep their jobs due to increased exports?

Economy Logs Brisk 3.9 Percent Growth

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/10/31/ap4286372.html

Bernanke: Economy to see more reasonable growth pace

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSWAT00841920071108

FYI: Growth in GDP =/= Recession

Dollar rallies, cheered by strong US data

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2007-12-13T173020Z_01_N04526731_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

FYI: "[S]trong US [economic] data" >> Your opinion

Economists Are Betting A Recession Won't Happen

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119784514764832443.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

resilient:

Quote :

"Marked by the ability to recover readily, as from misfortune."

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resilient

So, with the evidence I have provided and the definition of "resilient" in mind--since some of you obviously have no idea what the word means--yes, I continue to be impressed by the resilience of the obviously strong US economy. Some of you that disagree with me just need to do the following:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=AvS8IOV1XqQ

[Edited on December 19, 2007 at 7:18 PM. Reason : .]

12/19/2007 7:16:41 PM

Quote :

"If you had any idea what you were talking about, you would know that economists in general have never been very good at predicting recessions"

Well, in general includes a lot of business economists who, I believe are particularly bad forecasters. Not because they are less talented, but because there are few incentives to forecast bad news, especially when it might serve to undermine earnings forecasts.

With all due respect to Christina Romer, I think she is wrong on this. Forecasting recessions is much easier than forecasting market crashes because the economy has a considerable degree of inertia and because the transmission mechanism between the financial economy and the real economy takes time.

In contrast, the market reacts very quickly to new information and so as soon as one has the data to project a crash it is usually already in progress.

If you forecast using exogenous shocks like oil or natural disasters, yeah you are going to have some difficuty. However, if you look at the yeild curve, CP spreads, and the real fed funds rate then you have a much better shot. If you add in housing starts you have an even clearer picture.

Its not absolutely perfect because the 2001 recession was not consumer led, but business led, so that took a lot of people by surprise. However, I think it is possible to get a good idea.

Also, you have to look at trend updates. If you are just reading the recession probabilities out of your model then you are more likely to miss a recession because the models tend to register higher and higher probabilities as we move into the recession. So if you see the model go from 15% to 40% to 60% you can predict yourself that we are likely moving into a recession.

12/19/2007 9:21:33 PM

Quote :

" due to increased exports"

While currency values can have relatively quick impact on trade in pure commodities, products with quality differentiation combined with the financial and marketing creativeness of importers and exporters often override this theory.

Over the last several years our biggest export has been debt. And due to a complete dearth of responsibility and poor management by the banking industry and horrible U.S money policy, the rest of the world is losing its appetite for what will ultimately become no more than junk bonds if this trend continues.

12/19/2007 9:29:26 PM

Quote :

"So, with the evidence I have provided"

You have provided no evidence. None.

Quote :

"Economy Logs Brisk 3.9 Percent Growth http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/10/31/ap4286372.html "

Quote :

"Bernanke: Economy to see more reasonable growth pace http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSWAT00841920071108 "

I already undermined this "evidence". It's from October 31st/Nov 8th for christs sake. A lot can happen in 1.5 months in this economy you nimwit.

Quote :

"Dollar rallies, cheered by strong US data http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2007-12-13T173020Z_01_N04526731_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml "

A 1 day rally on INFLATION news...do you get that little man...INFLATION...is not evidence one bit of "an impressive economy".

Quote :

"Economists Are Betting A Recession Won't Happen http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119784514764832443.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"

Other people have owned you on this position, and from your own link

Quote :

"In the latest WSJ.com survey of economists, forecasters on average put the chance of a recession at 38%. That's the highest in more than three years,"

So, a group of people who notoriously under-predict are at the highest in three years. And this doesn't worry you. hahah. You must be supported by your parents on student loans and shit, right? You basically have no debts I bet, is this correct?

12/19/2007 9:55:48 PM

^^^ FYI:

Jeffrey A. Frankel, professor of economics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee

+

Yoram K. Bauman, professor of economics at the University of Washington

+

Christina Romer, professor of economics at the UC-Berkeley

>>

Some guy (aka kwsmith2) on the Internet

^ Wrong on all points--as usual, troll. And if anyone has been "owned" in this thread, it's you--by the continually impressive US economy. It also sounds like the bank is owning you right now--don't blame the economy for your poor business decisions.

12/20/2007 1:18:54 PM

Go ahead and live in a state of denial.

The US Economy is far from "impressive" right now. That said, we're not exactly on the brink of the Great Depression either. At the very least we'll be in for an economic correction. The longer our fiscal irresponsibility continues, the more likely we will be to see a recession.

12/20/2007 1:25:02 PM

^ Then get the Democrats in Congress to stop with the earmarks.

Quote :

"Bill Includes $14 Billion In Earmarks ABC World News reported that 'buried in' the omnibus spending bill passed by Congress are '$14 billion in new earmarks.' Democrats 'put in hundreds of thousands of dollars to help members facing re-election. And $1 million for an energy project, sponsored by a Louisiana congressman, who faces corruption charges.' Tom Schatz, president, Citizens Against Govt. Waste: 'Members of Congress have said, we're going to use the taxpayers' money, to help our majority stay in power' [emphasis added]. Under the headline "The Earmark Bounces Back," the New York Times reports, 'Despite an intense campaign by critics in and out of Congress against home-state projects, the year-end budget sent to President Bush on Wednesday was stuffed with almost 9,000 of them.'"

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_071220.htm

12/20/2007 1:35:07 PM

Well, I'm glad you finally figured out the singular cause for all of our economic problems.


Ignorance must certainly be bliss.

12/20/2007 1:38:47 PM

Quote :

" The US Economy is far from "impressive" right now. That said, we're not exactly on the brink of the Great Depression either. At the very least we'll be in for an economic correction. The longer our fiscal irresponsibility continues, the more likely we will be to see a recession."

i agree 110%. The US economy is nowhere close to anything that would be called impressive at the moment but its not terrible. actually im not going to comment because you took the words right out of my mouth and id just be restating what you said.

12/20/2007 1:42:12 PM

bush as absolutly NO room to bitch about earmarks when it is his fault for getting us stuck in Iraq to which another 70 BILLION has been allocated. yes, i want the troops to be taken care of while over there but we should not have been in the situation where this money was needed and we should be resolving this problem. Instead we are acting as an occupation force holding Iraq together by the seams.

Quote :

"hundreds of thousands of dollars to help members facing re-election. And $1 million for an energy project, sponsored by a Louisiana congressman, who faces corruption charges"

sounds like chump change to me.
wonder how much of this went on while republicans held congress to benefit their own.

Maybe we could also save money by putting up to bid some of our overseas contracts that haliburton is currently awarded as "no bid." Report after report has highlighted spending irregularities and graft coming from this country.

This kind of shit will always be present and will grow as bureaucracy increases. Hence why i support Ron Paul's platform to elevate state's rights while reducing federal gov't. Pork spending gets away in our own NCSU student gov't budget; multiply this by 1,000,000 and you got the federal gov't.

[Edited on December 20, 2007 at 2:06 PM. Reason : a]

12/20/2007 2:01:54 PM

^^^ No, earmarks are not the "singular cause"--and I indicated nothing of the sort--they are ~$14 billion worth of the problem, though.

12/20/2007 2:05:49 PM

Well, try not to be a hypocrite. Republicans and democrats are equally guilty of tax dollar wasting earmarks.

12/20/2007 2:07:38 PM

HUR your political positions/thoughts are so adorable

12/20/2007 2:08:38 PM

^^ Try not to call me names. And if you had been paying attention, you would have noticed that I have pointed out my disagreements with the Republicans on a number of occasions—after all, I'm not a Republican. Here's just one such example:

Quote :

"There are a number of issues that I have disagreed with President Bush about: spending, border enforcement, stem cell research, and so on."

/message_topic.aspx?topic=504034

12/20/2007 2:18:50 PM