Hola!

12/21/2010 9:52:33 AM

what does ^ mean?

12/21/2010 11:53:27 AM

It essentially means there's a potential for snow on Christmas Eve/Day.


[Edited on December 21, 2010 at 12:00 PM. Reason : ]

12/21/2010 11:59:52 AM

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuu. wait til sunday night after I get back.

12/21/2010 12:00:53 PM

Huffman will seriously need to update that ^^ today.

\/ In a way that brings the threat a little farther south and east.

[Edited on December 21, 2010 at 12:18 PM. Reason : ]

12/21/2010 12:06:19 PM

in what way?

12/21/2010 12:08:06 PM

I believe current models are moving it further south/east. But they'll likely continue to change in the next 3-4 days.

12/21/2010 12:09:48 PM

I'm going with cold rain

12/21/2010 12:22:40 PM

You're probably on to something with that.

12/21/2010 12:44:19 PM

NOTE: Timing could end being slightly later Xmas day-26th.

[Edited on December 21, 2010 at 2:28 PM. Reason : .]

12/21/2010 2:23:11 PM

It's probably gonna snow in Raleigh, b/c I won't be here - I'll be in Charlotte.

Every snow accumulation event last year I missed b/c I was out of town at the time(s).

12/21/2010 2:54:18 PM

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/threat-for-a-christmas-snowstorm-grows-for-the-southeast

Wow, that's a large amount of precip.

12/21/2010 4:56:57 PM

GFS continues trending closer to the ECMWF solution, which has been a snow bomb since we began looking at this event. Differences include timing, moisture and proximity to coast, with the GFS being faster, slightly drier and farther from the coast.

For now, still looks like a credible snow threat across much of NC for Christmas. Still too early to tell what, if any, accumulations occur. The European model is likely extreme and very similar to the 2000 storm in some ways. My best guess now would put 3-6" on the ground across central NC.

And just for completeness, here's Huffman's latest graphic from ^ that discussion:

12/22/2010 7:35:10 AM

Ok, my weather friends, ill be traveling between raleigh and new bern thur and sun. Not expecting any ice, correct? Just snow and rain?

12/22/2010 8:17:52 AM

^^omgomgomgomg how do you people expect me to get any work done the rest of this week!!!!!!!!!!

12/22/2010 8:44:53 AM

I'll be in Goldsboro on Christmas so knowing my luck thats about where this rain snow line will setup and I'll be on the rain side of it.

12/22/2010 8:48:14 AM

So is my White Christmas working out?

12/22/2010 8:55:34 AM

Weather guy this morning was being a scrooge and a hater about a white Xmas.

12/22/2010 9:42:55 AM

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

Quote :

"FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CA REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHERE IT THEN PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES ALL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE SLOWEST (ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER)AS IT TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE BOMBING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER TIMING...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT NOW...BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL THEN GRADUALLY TREND POPS OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE HELD IN LONGER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. ADDITIONALLY THE SLOWER TIMING NOW FAVORS PREDOMINATELY SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WITH THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW BEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AS THEY HAVE."

seems like all the weather outlets are saying significant snow is looking more and more likely, with the possibility of a big one

[Edited on December 22, 2010 at 9:58 AM. Reason : b]

12/22/2010 9:57:13 AM

What's going to happen:

1. The models will come into better agreement that we will have significant snow (4-8”).
2. I will pass out. Wake up and freak out.
3. Friday comes…more snow in the models!!!!OMG
4. The weekend passes uneventfully with a cold rain and no snow.
5. I curse the weather models I work with everyday.

12/22/2010 10:02:56 AM

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Have to drive from Roxboro to far western NC on Christmas Day. Looks like that may not happen.

12/22/2010 10:02:56 AM

When I want it to snow it never does.

When I don't pay attention, we get a good snow.

12/22/2010 10:35:34 AM

I'm driving to Charlotte on the 24th and driving back to Raleigh on the 26th (or 27th) so I'd imagine my driving will be fine despite the near slick gummy tires on my car

(Kinda makes me angry that my "winter" beater is just sitting there right now in need of a new starter)

[Edited on December 22, 2010 at 10:41 AM. Reason : k]

12/22/2010 10:40:10 AM

Quote :

"Things get complicated as we head into Christmas Day as we see several different weather systems aloft approach our area and their exact interaction and timing will determine our sensible weather. The ECMWF model continues to show a historic snowstorm around the southeast with as much as 2 feet of snow across the eastern piedmont and parts of the coastal plain of NC and eastern Virginia. It also shows heavy snow of probably up to a foot in areas of central and western Virginia and North Carolina, South Carolina and eastern Tennessee and also significant snow of at least several inches if not more over the rest of Tennessee and parts of northern Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. The model shows perfect timing for the phasing of 3 separate s/w’s 2 in the northern branch and one in the southern branch that would produce a slow-moving very intense storm near the southeast coast that would climb off the mid-Atlantic coast and then out to sea eventually. This is the extreme scenario. The ECMWF has been showing a significant snowstorm for several runs now and this model has made a name for itself of being the best medium range forecast model with it’s superior resolution and data assimilation methods. The ECMWF ensemble shows similar ideas to the ECMWF track, but it is less intense and a little further east."

I know he says not to get our hopes up--but stuff like this gets me excited.

[Edited on December 22, 2010 at 11:06 AM. Reason : from Huffman's blog.]

12/22/2010 11:06:01 AM

Well by that account perhaps being in Goldsboro will net me more snow than being in Raleigh

12/22/2010 11:12:34 AM

Most places are labeling Raleigh as the "bulls eye" for this storm. I'll be a little further east. But here's Huffman's map:

12/22/2010 11:14:35 AM

holy fuck i'm gonna crap my pants i'm so excited. i need to prepare for my bubble to be burst...but damn we've never had a chance for snow on christmas like this.

12/22/2010 11:14:51 AM

Didn't we get a good amount of snow Christmas of 2004? I seem to remember 8+ inches that year.

12/22/2010 11:15:23 AM

Cary is spraying their streets with salt already.

12/22/2010 11:43:40 AM

Quote :

"The ECMWF ensemble shows similar ideas to the ECMWF track, but it is less intense and a little further east."

This will happen.

OMG OMG OMG



[Edited on December 22, 2010 at 12:13 PM. Reason : 12Z GFS]

12/22/2010 11:45:45 AM

God, I NO NOT want to be stuck in G'boro with my family if we get dumped on...I wonder if I can fabricate a legitimate excuse to leave on Christmas day after the festivities....

12/22/2010 12:43:57 PM

Snowicane!!

12/22/2010 12:50:56 PM

Quote :

"God, I NO NOT want to be stuck Exiled in G'boro with my family if we get dumped on...I wonder if I can fabricate a legitimate excuse to leave on Christmas day after the festivities...."

12/22/2010 12:59:11 PM

Quote :

"Didn't we get a good amount of snow Christmas of 2004? I seem to remember 8+ inches that year."

wral says no. they said it snowed .4" in 1947 & there was 1" on the ground in 1966 or something, other than than just slight trace amounts on christmas.

speaking of wral, they say nothing is happening on saturday & slight chance the low might sling some rain around this way on sunday...

12/22/2010 1:20:40 PM

my uneducated opinion (and the most likely scenario): a few flakes, some rain, and a whole lot of disappointment

12/22/2010 1:22:06 PM

we're supposed to drive up to VA from durham the day after christmas for a quick overnight and back trip. i hope the snow doesnt' derail this...

i cant wait to get back!! it's mid 70s in houston, im ready for some cold weather and hot beverages!! for just a few days, then i'll happily come back to the warmth of texas

12/22/2010 1:34:29 PM

The 12z Euro bombs out the low once again. It has shown a burying now for 5 or 6 runs. Here is my current map:



forecast and discussion: http://www.sandhillswx.com

12/22/2010 2:09:52 PM

Quote :

"wral says no. they said it snowed .4" in 1947 & there was 1" on the ground in 1966 or something, other than than just slight trace amounts on christmas."

You're right. I'm thinking of the day after Christmas.

Also do you^ have any inclination to speculate as to accumulation totals?

12/22/2010 2:19:03 PM

my whole family is driving down to charleston early monday morning to board a cruise ship...

we are wondering whether we should head down saturday morning or not. waiting until monday morning may be risky if there is still a ton of snow and ice on the highways

12/22/2010 2:48:40 PM

If the snow is Saturday night you should be fine by Monday morning the roads will likely be fine by then. I'd hold off until at least friday afternoon to make any travel decisions though as this storm is going to be based so much on track and timing on how bad it really is.

12/22/2010 3:30:18 PM

yeah that's what worries us... b/c obviously we will take 40 to 95 to get down there and those roads will be first to be cleared.. however, we have to take other back roads to get to highway 40 and we'd have to "wait it out" and monday morning the roads still be horrible..
if we get a whole lot of snow, just how much of it would melt by monday morning... could be worse then with ice over

12/22/2010 3:55:14 PM

You're worrying about nothing. It won't do shit.

12/22/2010 3:57:11 PM

These are not the droids you are looking for. There will be no snow this weekend.

12/22/2010 4:10:24 PM

No I am not going to speculate on accumulations just yet. I probably won't do that until Friday at some point.

12/22/2010 6:26:23 PM

957PM NWS discussion has an update regarding amounts..

says the latest models (nam and gfs) are trending more toward the strong ECMWF model..

they say that even the most conservative models are showing at least 1-2 inches even in the triad region...

12/22/2010 10:29:34 PM

what about in the rocky mount area?

12/22/2010 11:21:32 PM

3AM discussion says the ECMWF is showing the low a little further east now, as well as the GFS. So the trend is moving it further east, which would be less snow for us.

12/23/2010 8:26:42 AM

Sure, a little less than the historical amounts it was forecasting earlier. You're still talking about really significant snow at this point.

Continue to wait.

And the 06Z GFS was slower and farther west, so there's that...

[Edited on December 23, 2010 at 9:16 AM. Reason : ]

12/23/2010 9:12:45 AM

If I get snowed in in wilmington, I'm gonna be pissed.

12/23/2010 9:23:33 AM

Lets face it in reality we arent gonna know whats gonna happen until it actually starts snowing. 6 hours prior is about when I start actually believing the forecasts. However, it sure is tons of fun to watch the models and speculate on the possibility of SNOWMAGEDDON!!

12/23/2010 9:28:06 AM