Oops nm, read it wrong.

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 9:24 PM. Reason : X]

2/21/2013 9:23:45 PM

this douchenugget on ESPN keeps calling us a bubble team. Is he f'ing kidding?

2/21/2013 9:59:48 PM

haha, we are a bubble team. see: nc state basketball thread.

2/21/2013 10:00:25 PM

oh give me a damn break. We're not a damn bubble team. Not at the moment anyways. If we are, then any team outside of the Top 15 is.

2/21/2013 10:08:02 PM

okay ask yourself this: how many teams from the acc are going to the tournament? does a team like virginia winning the acc tournament significantly hurt our chances at making the tournament? if the answer to that is yes (which it is), then we are definitely on the bubble.

2/21/2013 10:09:51 PM

Quote :

"how many teams from the acc are going to the tournament?"

4 at the absolute minimum, most likely 5

Quote :

"does a team like virginia winning the acc tournament significantly hurt our chances at making the tournament?"

unless we go 3-3 or worse and lose in the 1st round of the ACC tourney, then no, it only helps them be the 5th team

2/21/2013 10:11:23 PM

virginia winning the tournament would mean absolutely jack shit towards our chances of making the NCAAT

virginia is also not winning the tournament so this is a pointless hypothetical

2/21/2013 10:14:19 PM

I'm not gauging what we do over the next couple games though. I'm saying, AT THIS EXACT MOMENT, we are not a bubble team. So why in hell is this douche nozzle ESPN announcer considering us one? Right now, 5 ACC teams are in with UVA the closest to the bubble, then UNC, then us. We have the 3rd best resume in the ACC at the moment. RIGHT NOW, we are not a bubble team. We lose to BC at home, sure. But hell, you can say that about just about any team that if they lost to "x" team and "y" team, they would be bubble teams. That isn't the discussion though. The discussion is who is on the bubble with their resume RIGHT NOW. We are not.

2/21/2013 10:15:44 PM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament

we are a 5 seed right now

2/21/2013 10:18:11 PM

^lol...bubble

2/21/2013 10:19:40 PM

^^^your sound rationale will fall on many deaf trolls' ears on tww

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 10:20 PM. Reason : ^]

2/21/2013 10:19:54 PM

^^^ it also projects us to finish 3rd in the acc, which not only isn't going to be as easy as you think, but also isn't even an appropriate representation of the current situation. not that the model's wrong, it has to put something in, but we have the same record as virginia and unc. we play @unc this weekend, and virginia will likely beat georgia tech. if we don't beat unc (which is the predicted outcome) we're now 5th in the acc. so when the most likely scenario is that in two days we're on the bubble, there's pretty much no point whatsoever in talking about what would happen if the season ends today.

2/21/2013 10:25:56 PM

we're top-20 RPI and top-20 strength of schedule

we also have quality wins over Duke, UConn and UNC

but feel free to keep worrying if it helps you sleep at night

2/21/2013 10:29:41 PM

Agreed.

2/21/2013 10:35:29 PM

unless we drop 4/5 games and play terribly in the ACC tourney, I think we are in

2/21/2013 10:37:55 PM

I'd say I agree with that.

2/21/2013 10:39:40 PM

If we lose to UNC we still aren't on the bubble. However if we then lose at FSU (likely) or at GT (not likely but would be in typical Wolfpack WTF fashion), we are pushing it. Throw in an early ACC tourney exit and its hello bubble.

But if we walk into Chapel Hill and beat those fuckers then all this shit is moot and we can all start arguing about what seed we get because we are in baby.

2/21/2013 10:41:45 PM

^ your scenario: if we lose to unc and then another game we are on the bubble.

i agree 100%. losing to unc is more than 50% likely. that sucks, okay now we have to win 4 acc games in a row, something no one on this team has ever done in the regular season.

so my point is, this "oh yeah okay well IF this happens then sure maybe we're on the bubble" scenario you're presenting is probably the most likely outcome.

2/21/2013 10:51:31 PM

well if we beat UNC, we WILL have won 4 ACC games in a row...

2/21/2013 10:53:22 PM

lol, i'm done. Crazy people

2/21/2013 10:56:55 PM

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/rpi-prediction/

Quote :

"The table above summarizes the results of predicting the 2007-2012 NCAA Tournaments. The RPI is close to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings in terms of average games predicted, but is blown away by the Survival Model. Additionally, the RPI is much worse on the dimensions that matter: predicting Final Four teams and NCAA Champions. Both the Survival Model and Pomeroy’s rankings score far better and have identified more championship teams before March Madness begins. The 2008 NCAA Tournament is instructive as to why the RPI is not as predictive of future results. Prior to the Tournament, the RPI ranked Tennessee as the best team in the country. While the Volunteers had had a tremendous season, they had also relied heavily on narrow wins. The Vols were 9-1 in games decided by fewer than five points to that point in 2008, and the SEC was one of the weakest major conferences. Kansas, by contrast, had a much stronger margin of victory while running through the Big 12, the best conference in the country. Both Pomeroy’s model and my model ranked the Jayhawks first before the Tournament began. Pomeroy had the Vols ranked 19th; I had them ranked 23rd. As we now know, Kansas cut down the nets in a classic title game, while Tennessee lost in the Elite Eight to North Carolina. Ignoring margin of victory, as the RPI does, throws away valuable predictive information. "

2/22/2013 10:16:56 AM

Yeah not using margin of victory is an obvious flaw for pretty much any sport.

If you look at professional sports which have a much larger sample size (baseball, basketball, hockey) if you look at run differential, point differential, or goal differential practically the entire league ranks top to bottom in the same order as wins/losses. There will be some noise in the data and the occasional outlier (Orioles in baseball last year), but overall it shouldn't come as a surprise that how many "points" you score vs how many "points" your opponents score is an important determining factor in how many games you win.

So when Florida is out waxing everyone's ass around the country it's a pretty good indicator that they are better than an NC State team squeaking by UNC-Asheville. Even though "a win is a win" this stuff matters for predictive purposes.

[Edited on February 22, 2013 at 12:13 PM. Reason : a]

2/22/2013 12:12:27 PM

The race for 3rd place in the ACC is gonna be tight. All three teams that are tied right now could win out or lose up to 3 games. The only thing is that we have the most away games left.

NCSU remaining schedule
@ UNC
vs. BC
@ Ga Tech
vs. Wake Forest
@ FSU

UNC remaining schedule
vs. NCSU
@ Clemson
vs. FSU
@ Maryland
vs. Duke

UVA remaining schedule
vs. Ga Tech
vs. Duke
@ BC
@ FSU
vs. Maryland

And Duke isn't safe for 2nd either. They barely beat BC, trailed against UNC at home, and lost to Maryland. And they've still got to play Miami, and then Virginia and UNC on the road.

[Edited on February 22, 2013 at 12:38 PM. Reason : ]

2/22/2013 12:36:40 PM

^^ When Florida is waxing real teams by double digits and not the chumps in the SEC, then I'll pay attention. Look what happened when they played two real teams: Arizona and KSU... THEY LOST.

2/22/2013 8:34:45 PM

they also just lost to mizzou

not saying they aren't a good team, but the knob slobbing is a bit excessive

2/22/2013 8:53:37 PM

just speculation here....

would it really be a huge loss if we ended up 5th in the ACC? we play 12th on neutral court in the first round. we did it once, and got to the semi's and almost beat UNC.

i'd be okay with playing miami in the second round, but against duke im honestly afraid of their outside the arc shooting.

2/22/2013 9:00:54 PM

I think State and UNC will both go 3-2. UVA has an easy schedule and they're playing great so they may actually close it out 4-1.



We really need to pull off a miracle @unc tomorrow to avoid being squarely back on the bubble and a 5th place finish.

If we tie with UNC how does the tiebreaker work again. Do we get it because we beat Duke, or do they get because we lost to Wake? I can't remember if it goes top to bottom or bottom to top for some reason

[Edited on February 22, 2013 at 9:15 PM. Reason : a]

2/22/2013 9:11:51 PM

i agree, i can see us blowing it @GT, but i would rather gauge that after tomorrow.

2/22/2013 9:15:34 PM

Butler sucks.

2/22/2013 10:21:09 PM

Also guys, we're done "blowing it." Just a hunch, but you'll see.

2/22/2013 10:27:44 PM

keep at it wake

2/23/2013 1:37:49 PM

WF up by 10 on Miami in the first half, could this be Miami's wtf loss

2/23/2013 1:38:56 PM

up by 19
well now 16
damn

2/23/2013 1:47:26 PM

Looooool miami about to get blown out by wake.

2/23/2013 1:47:39 PM

I went to the State game @ Wake...they have some big bodied freshmen that when they actually play well...are tough to beat.

Plus Miami was getting by on the skin of its teeth as of late.

they are washed up.

2/23/2013 1:47:45 PM

Marcus smart has 3 fouls in 3 minutes at WVU

2/23/2013 2:11:55 PM

Gamble just pulled a CJL

2/23/2013 2:13:05 PM

It's damned hard to win that many games in a row playing division 1 opponents. Miami is bound to lose sometime. 4th game in 10 days, 3 of those on the road. Wouldn't surprise too much if they lost.

2/23/2013 2:14:23 PM

Massive screen by Reggie Johnson

2/23/2013 2:14:48 PM

Miami losing would mean absolute dick big picture-wise

2/23/2013 2:16:30 PM

Doesn't it seem like Kilicli from WVU has been there for at least 5 years?

2/23/2013 2:18:00 PM

Well, I think Wake's ship has sailed.

2/23/2013 2:22:44 PM

OK State playing exciting basketball

2/23/2013 2:28:28 PM

Watching Reggie Johnson fall brings me unreasonable amounts of joy.

2/23/2013 2:29:47 PM

Miami state shit

2/23/2013 2:32:51 PM

Wake freaking Forest

2/23/2013 2:33:20 PM

Wow, what a ridiculously awful NBA style continuation call there. That foul was 100% on the floor, he didn't even start shooting until after he had been hit, the ball went into the air, then he caught it and then shot.

college refs

2/23/2013 2:33:37 PM

Wake on TV?

2/23/2013 2:35:13 PM

Can't wait for Memphis to make the tournament and lose in the first round. One of the most overrated teams in CBB.

2/23/2013 2:35:19 PM

Miami was due for a WTF loss

2/23/2013 2:35:41 PM