I have a lot invested in Obama, but not so much that I lose all rationability.

10/2/2008 2:35:50 PM

Quote :

"John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play. McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.... ...But recent polls there have shown Obama extending what had been a small lead, with the economic crisis damaging an already sagging GOP brand in a state whose economy is in tatters. A McCain event planned for next week in Plymouth, Michiigan, has been canceled. "

Ouch. McCain is in serious trouble...he must be seeing some disturbing internal polling. Ohio and Florida would even be considered defense at this point, and Wisconsin had margins even better than Michigan....

[Edited on October 2, 2008 at 2:37 PM. Reason : -]

10/2/2008 2:36:27 PM

link?

10/2/2008 2:39:17 PM

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html?showall

10/2/2008 2:46:36 PM

well, that is the final nail in the McCain coffin.

10/2/2008 2:48:40 PM

^not necessarily. as much as i'd hate to say it, palin might pull a rabbit out of the hat tonight. not by demonstrating a commanding knowledge of the issues, but possibly by resorting to snottiness and name calling much like she did at the rnc. and if biden loses his cool, it could give the gop another palin bump.

i hope i'm wrong though.

10/2/2008 3:22:21 PM

i love how people think she can somehow revolutionize things as evidenced by her initial base surge introduction. I mean, no one knew her and she was exotic so of course there would be a bump....

However to think that would replicate because she is somehow a magical political figure as opposed to an inexperienced and generally awful politician is crazy to me. I mean, I guess there's a chance but I don't see how. I do know that the pundits will spin her talking in English as a WIN OMG COMEBACK KID but honestly, how will this change the predicament McCain's campaign finds himself in?

10/2/2008 3:30:21 PM

Obama's recent bump in the polls has little to do with either Obama or McCain, and everything to do with the economy and the fact a Republican is in the White House. It's not like Obama has some sort of amazing plan that will make everything better, hell, if anything some of his policies would make matters worse, listen to his rhetoric about "protecting American jobs, stopping outsourcing, etc" that is just protectionism. We know how well that helps a downturn economy

You still have about 6-8% undecided in pretty much every poll, and that polls have been so volatile I find it hard to call the game just yet. Obama has been up 8%, down 6%, up 4%, tied, and up 3% in about a months time, that shows a finicky, unimpressed, and undecided electorate. Does it look good for Obama right now? Yeah, but that is because of the events of the past week which have been out of the hands of either candidate. I wouldn't be counting my chickens just yet.

10/2/2008 3:32:56 PM

Pulling out of Michigan basically signals that McCain is acknowleding his loss.

10/2/2008 3:34:40 PM

.. yeah, in Michigan. Michigan wasn't critical to their electoral strategy. Republicans haven't won Michigan since Bush Sr.

10/2/2008 3:42:08 PM

They have no electoral strategy. In order for McCain to win this year he needed Michigan. he's already bled off too many Bush states to not need Michigan.

10/2/2008 3:43:23 PM

Pulling out Michigan means he's essentially going to focus all his efforts on winning Pennsylvania and just hoping he gets lucky everywhere else.

10/2/2008 3:46:39 PM

Quote :

"i love how people think she can somehow revolutionize things as evidenced by her initial base surge introduction."

look, palin sucks when it comes to addressing the issues. i know that, you know that, and anybody with a brain knows that. what i'm saying is, is that she has a history of dancing around and avoiding questions. she bullshit's her way out of trouble to the un-trained eye. it's very much like an essay question that you don't know the answer to, so you just kind of write what you can remember and make sure to use words and phrases that you heard in the previous week's lecture. unfortunately, she has a history (like in the alaska debates for gov.) of being able to BS her way into office, probably because she could somehow connect with the voter by speaking with a tone of decisiveness. and pundits like bay buchanan will wax poetic about how she communicates like ronald reagan. you and i both know it's complete BS, but as long as she keeps her mouth shut long enough not to make a complete ass out of herself, it could be considered a good night for the mccain camp, and un-suspecting voters are non-the-wiser

[Edited on October 2, 2008 at 4:00 PM. Reason : just an opinion. it mostly has to do with my lack of faith for the average voter.]

10/2/2008 3:56:32 PM

Not unreasonable, and doesn't signal defeat. Michigan was a long shot to begin with. I doesn't have to win Penn either, though if he doesn't he can't lose Va, Fl, Ohio. He could still lose Co.

10/2/2008 3:56:47 PM

He can't afford to lose Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado and still expect to win. Him losing those three Bush states signifies that McCain has to pick up a least 1 Kerry State to win and he won't do it.

Obama already has 269 electoral votes from states where the margin is above 5%. Obama doesn't need to win any of the remaining battleground states and he is the de facto president due to the projected make up of the House of Representatives.

[Edited on October 2, 2008 at 4:18 PM. Reason : .]

10/2/2008 4:16:20 PM

http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/74vm0/eight_words_can_win_biden_the_debate_tonight_now/


lollercaust

10/2/2008 4:34:48 PM

McCain didn't quit nearly as early as Obama

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/22/obama-stops-advertising-in-red-battleground-states/

10/2/2008 4:38:09 PM

^

Quote :

"Of the seven states -- including Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota -- Florida and Virginia are considered key battlegrounds this year. Obama's decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows."

Yeah, he really gave up on all those states.

10/2/2008 4:42:21 PM

Yeah that's awfully inaccurate. It's Fox though, that says it all. Pulling out of Michigian is big news and to say it was always a long shot is just ignorant. In fact McCain was polling ahead of Obama there only 3-4 weeks back.

Obama is spending and has spent a shitload in Florida and NC in particular. Virginia has seen ton of continued attention, hell he has nearly 50 campaign offices in that state alone!

Only relevant ones listed here are Alaska, Montana, and Georgia - and come on, how is that suprising at all. Those are strong base states.

10/2/2008 4:56:59 PM

Quote :

"McCain didn't quit nearly as early as Obama"

i.e. McCain wasted a lot more money on lost causes

10/2/2008 5:11:48 PM

Quote :

"Yeah that's awfully inaccurate. It's Fox though, that says it all. Pulling out of Michigian is big news and to say it was always a long shot is just ignorant. In fact McCain was polling ahead of Obama there only 3-4 weeks back. "

It seems everytime I see McCain now, he seems very irritated, I would almost think, considering his supposed rashness and short temper, that he's given up in his mind. Just his rant about life not being fair to him shows a level of desperation or hopelessness. But, there's plenty of time for him to change his attitude. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him whip the Wright scandal back up, and play on Ayers more, because those things could potentially help him as a last ditch effort, even people don't perceive it as desperate and underhanded.

Quote :

"^ meet the kettle. "

You're right, a leader that can motivate and inspire is a terrible quality, i'd hate to have that in a president.

[Edited on October 2, 2008 at 5:57 PM. Reason : ]

10/2/2008 5:54:57 PM

And here's an ad Obama has been running in Appalachia and the South: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/new_obama_ad_in_south_stars_bl.php

Seems like a good ad to me.

10/2/2008 6:08:18 PM

Quote :

"Of the seven states -- including Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota -- Florida and Virginia are considered key battlegrounds this year. Obama's decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows."

Uh... I was in Florida yesterday and saw a bunch of Obama ads.

10/2/2008 6:16:06 PM

^^ Seems a little blatant. Hey, these folks like bluegrass, right? Let's get a famous bluegrass artist to tell them to vote for Obama. Standard, but this sort of targeted marketing typically makes me a little uncomfortable. Like that update Google explained via personalized analogies.

[Edited on October 2, 2008 at 6:29 PM. Reason : that's not to say the ad didn't appeal to me]

10/2/2008 6:19:01 PM

^ yeah, it's generic, but that's what works. Look at any successful advertising campaign, ever.

People know that advertisers will put tits anywhere to sell something, and yet it still works.

10/2/2008 6:23:57 PM

funny how if that guy wasnt endorsing obama he'd be a "dumb redneck"

10/2/2008 6:25:01 PM

^ no, just the people listening to him

10/2/2008 6:26:05 PM

Quote :

"Seems a little blatant. Hey, these folks like bluegrass, right? Let's get a famous bluegrass artist to tell them to vote for Obama. Standard, but this sort of targeted marketing typically makes me a little uncomfortable. Like that update Google explained via personalized analogies."

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS GO INTO THE BLUEGRASS THREAD IN CHIT CHAT TO SEE HOW MUCH I LIKE THAT TRASH.

It's pathetic to see this type of advertising. Don't associate with some retard that you think everyone in a specific region will find cool. It makes it clear that you're someone who stereotypes people based on their geographic location, which is incredibly stupid.

10/2/2008 6:50:00 PM

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200881001026

Quote :

"Obama to drill for debate in Asheville Sen. Barack Obama will rehearse in the Asheville area for his next debate with Sen. John McCain, Obama's campaign told the Citizen-Times. ... He’ll be hunkered down," Roussell said. But Obama managed to fit a rally into his schedule while practicing in Clearwater, Fla., for the first debate, and the campaign didn't rule out an appearance. "Having a public event was certainly an opportunity to both prepare for the debate and reach voters at the same time," Roussell said. North Carolina Democrats will have their annual Vance-Aycock dinner Saturday at the Grove Park Inn, providing an opportunity to fire up the faithful should Obama show up early. The stop in Western North Carolina will be Obama's first of the campaign. He lost the region in the primary election to Sen. Hillary Clinton, who campaigned here. “He’s making his rounds around the state, and North Carolina is certainly an important one," said Roussell. "

10/2/2008 7:40:30 PM

^^seriously, you are retarded. Having a local favored son release a campaign ad is big and isn't stereotyping.

10/2/2008 8:18:40 PM

Quote :

"But Obama managed to fit a rally into his schedule"

In other news...stock in Teleprompter manufacturers is soaring on news that Obama is gaining in the polls.

10/2/2008 8:33:47 PM

oh fuck

here we go

10/2/2008 9:03:43 PM

You know the Republicans have all but collapsed when Charles Krauthammer is writing off McCain. Sure, he backhands Obama as many times as he can in his limited print space, but in the end:

Quote :

"Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. famously said of Franklin Roosevelt that he had a "second-class intellect, but a first-class temperament." Obama has shown that he is a man of limited experience, questionable convictions, deeply troubling associations (Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Tony Rezko) and an alarming lack of self-definition -- do you really know who he is and what he believes? Nonetheless, he's got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/02/AR2008100203043.html

10/3/2008 1:20:09 AM

Quote :

"look, palin sucks when it comes to addressing the issues. i know that, you know that, and anybody with a brain knows that. what i'm saying is, is that she has a history of dancing around and avoiding questions. she bullshit's her way out of trouble to the un-trained eye. it's very much like an essay question that you don't know the answer to, so you just kind of write what you can remember and make sure to use words and phrases that you heard in the previous week's lecture. unfortunately, she has a history (like in the alaska debates for gov.) of being able to BS her way into office, probably because she could somehow connect with the voter by speaking with a tone of decisiveness."

That was exactly what I watched!

[Edited on October 3, 2008 at 8:16 AM. Reason : .]

10/3/2008 8:16:14 AM

New Hampshire Battleground Poll: Obama +10
from TIME: Real Clear Politics

Obama 53 (+6 vs. last poll, Sept. 23)
McCain 43 (-6) Obama...

BOOYA. It's only 4 EV's but this state is pulling away.

10/3/2008 9:20:04 AM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

Another one from Rasmussen (the fox news poll) showing Obama +10 in New Hampshire. That means that New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire are at the moment out of reach for McCain. Now he has has to steal one of the Kerry blue states to even have a chance, and since he's pulled out of Michigan, the only one left with even a remote chance of turning is PA.

10/3/2008 9:47:20 AM

Well I don't think Colorado is out of reach for him. But now he is FORCED to defend a swing state with his life since he gave up on Michigan....all while bleeding support from NC, VA, FL, NV, MO namely that are all trending Obama...where each of them would spell disaster for him. UNLESS he thinks he can pick of PA which I just think would never happen.

Basically, he has to win all of those above despite the trend, AND win Colorado which is polling better for Obama. PLUS we are operating that Ohio is a given for McCain but that ALSO is swing.

Flat out, in terms of the EV I wouldn't want to be him right now.

10/3/2008 9:51:54 AM

imagine if mccain supporters actually participated in polls

10/3/2008 9:59:39 AM

imagine if they polled cell phones as well as land lines.

10/3/2008 10:04:53 AM

they're so maverick they won't even vote in Nov.

10/3/2008 10:06:21 AM

imagine if working class people were up at 12:30 on a weeknight submitting online polls

10/3/2008 10:07:46 AM

^ oh yeah of course, it's not the McCain supporters sitting around the house eating Wurther's Originals that pick up their rotary telephones...they're not supporting. It's just the Obama college kids.

10/3/2008 10:07:58 AM

i just wouldnt put too much stock in polls...didnt your high expectations and subsequent disappointment in 2004 where polls projected kerry to win teach you a lesson? why would you get your hopes up based on something as unreliable as telemarketing?

10/3/2008 10:13:46 AM

Never , at any point in 2004, did Kerry hold such a large lead in the national polls or in the individual state polls. It basically stayed within the margin of error up until election day.

10/3/2008 10:16:54 AM

Quote :

"didnt your high expectations and subsequent disappointment in 2004 where polls projected kerry to win teach you a lesson?"

No, I didn't think Kerry would win. Bush was up most of that horse race, particularly the momentum and when it mattered.

10/3/2008 10:18:54 AM

Quote :

"Never , at any point in 2004, did Kerry hold such a large lead in the national polls or in the individual state polls"

lots of election day polling at actual polling places had kerry winning big, how do you not remember? i remember some of my democratic friends back then talking about how kerry was definitely going to win and the polling data supported it

bottom line is if you put too much stock in any polls, you're an idiot

10/3/2008 10:21:48 AM

Quote :

""Say it ain't so, Joe. There you go again, pointing backwards again," she said toward the end of the debate. "Now, doggone it, let's look ahead and tell Americans what we have to plan to do for them in the future.""

Quote :

""I'll betcha," Palin said in answering the first "

Quote :

"PALIN: A two-state solution is the solution"

Quote :

"Bless their hearts," she said in another answer. iReport.com: Did Palin knock it out of the park? On the cause of the mortgage crisis: "Darn right, it was the predator lenders." "

LOL; McCain really wants this country bumpkin who can not even use proper english to be is right arm. Preciding over senate sessions and meeting world leaders. She would be a joke and as a foreign dignitary I would laught at Palin as a showcase for the uneducated ignorant american stereotype.

I do not mind have a "Mrs. Six Pack Joe" as mayor of my community. I would hope though that the VP of my nation though would be more intelligent and more refined than the average citizen.

Her broken grammar and local slang may work in Alaska; but not in the main land.

[Edited on October 3, 2008 at 10:29 AM. Reason : a]

10/3/2008 10:25:15 AM

2004 was much closer in national polls, though Kerry lost a few states where he was consistently polling higher. 2000 on the other hand, is somewhat similar to this year, where Gore had a large lead in polls, though I don't remember the polls being so volatile (changing so rapidly and widely).

10/3/2008 10:26:13 AM

Quote :

"lots of election day polling at actual polling places had kerry winning big"

......which was contrary to all the polling that took place leading up to election day, hence the reason it turned out wrong.

10/3/2008 10:27:51 AM

did any of us say anything about exit polls?

10/3/2008 10:35:50 AM