5

9/8/2007 6:37:57 PM

Page 5 says we need some action and some water!

Something like hurricane Floyd, only slightly smaller so eastern NC isn't flooded out of existence for 4 months.

9/8/2007 7:40:11 PM

Therefore we need a Fran.

9/8/2007 7:44:21 PM

Well... I guess...

Floyd didn't end in my parent's house having trees on it though.

9/8/2007 7:44:52 PM

there are like 3 areas out there they are looking at, one in the Gulf, the other near the islands, and the last one mid atlantic

9/9/2007 1:01:11 PM

we need all three, well the gulf would be hard

but all three wuold be great considering this one was a puss

9/9/2007 10:39:39 PM

it was windier 2 weeks ago than it was today out here on the Outer Banks



and rain? HAfuckingHA We had a tiny bit early this morning (6am-ish) but then only a light mist, not even a sprinkle, a couple of times in the late afternoon.

[Edited on September 9, 2007 at 10:57 PM. Reason : ]

9/9/2007 10:56:19 PM

hurricane in the atlantic by saturday night / sunday

9/11/2007 11:45:59 AM

When is hurricane season typically over?

9/11/2007 11:56:57 AM

end of november

9/11/2007 12:03:19 PM

Im assuming you mean the system in mid atlantic between the islands and africa as far as being a hurricane by the weekend?

9/11/2007 1:28:58 PM

yeah, the broad swath of storms. all the models seem to develop something over the next few days, with the HWRF being the most destructive (Cat. 3 Sunday, Hurricane by Thursday). Should at least be a depression within the next day or so.

In fact, if you wanna take the CMC model at face value, it has 3 systems...

The one in the middle is the system which I'm referring to. The third develops just behind and the first one develops a few days later.



[Edited on September 11, 2007 at 3:52 PM. Reason : ]

9/11/2007 3:49:29 PM

What is the timeframe and any projected track at this point? I am leaving ass early in the morning to head to Camp Hatteras with the camper and just want a timeframe on whether this will threaten our plans.

9/11/2007 3:59:52 PM

you're fine, if anything, it looks like a mid-week thing next week

that is to say, the image above is valid 6 days from 8 AM this morning, sooo...end of next week even.

[Edited on September 11, 2007 at 4:09 PM. Reason : ]

9/11/2007 4:08:27 PM

I was really looking forward to "Invest 92L" to develop, but it had other ideasl

9/11/2007 9:10:53 PM

TD8

w00t

9/12/2007 1:21:47 PM

lets get some updated images on here

prefer some that update on their own not that are days old

9/12/2007 4:48:22 PM

humberto in the gulf



[Edited on September 12, 2007 at 4:53 PM. Reason : ]

9/12/2007 4:53:07 PM

ahhh there we go

whats the outlook lookin like for the three storms out in the atlantic?

9/12/2007 5:03:00 PM

houston's really flood prone right now

9/12/2007 5:06:06 PM

loop?

9/12/2007 5:39:18 PM

come on TD #8

9/12/2007 7:11:41 PM

wheres the map of that one?

9/12/2007 7:16:45 PM

000
WTNT43 KNHC 122038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA
BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS
BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W 55 KT

9/12/2007 7:21:41 PM

sweeeeeet

[Edited on September 12, 2007 at 8:03 PM. Reason : C'mon TD#8]

9/12/2007 8:02:27 PM

9/12/2007 8:20:34 PM

Damn, as if Texas needed more rain. Too late, they gonna get it.

9/12/2007 9:48:02 PM

made landfall at 85mph, if it had another day over the water it would of been really strong.

9/13/2007 4:42:23 AM

holy shit that thing spun up quick

9/13/2007 7:15:23 AM

god i hope it hits us

9/13/2007 7:42:41 AM

That Hurricane wasn't shit. I am in Beaumont and didn't lose power. Haven't gotten called in to work yet either

9/13/2007 10:23:34 AM

^^^^^ looks like that new tropical depression is right on track for our state.

9/13/2007 10:27:38 AM

It's still a LONG ways out and lets not forget most storms that go north of the islands end up curving back out to sea. Depends where the high pressure is setup as well as any fronts moving in as far as the main steering elements. Almost always some front comes along and picks it up and sends it out to sea. Give it a week then come back and see where it is lol

9/13/2007 10:37:38 AM

Things don't look good for strengthening

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 13.9N  48.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N  49.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  49.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.8N  50.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 15.2N  52.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 18.2N  59.6W    35 KT

9/13/2007 3:55:55 PM

Its gonna run into some pretty nasty shear, if it doesnt get ripped apart over the weekend it may have a shot at getting back together maybe monday or so.

9/13/2007 4:09:51 PM

Anyone excited about the new Dual Dopplar 5000 on wral

http://www.wral.com/weather/flash/1797230/

Pretty cool.

9/13/2007 9:48:53 PM

shear is supposedly forecast to die off soon?

I expect We'll have Ingrid within the next day - hopefully tonight at 11pm

9/13/2007 10:07:12 PM

aaaaaannnnnnnd we have ingrid

9/13/2007 10:31:52 PM

you mean bermuda has ingrid

9/14/2007 7:43:58 AM

Quote :

"Anyone excited about the new Dual Dopplar 5000 on wral "

It would be nice if they removed all the terrain stuff from the image, it makes it harder to see the actual radar images.

9/15/2007 8:37:10 AM

how much rain did everyone get last night? i got 3.42" at my house

9/15/2007 9:19:16 AM

looks like most of wake co. got 1-2", but ppl in the southern portions of Wake Co. got as much as 3-4".

9/15/2007 1:38:36 PM

anything new on the storm out there?

9/17/2007 12:44:04 AM

its gone. i have never seen a storm just die over open waters like that. global warming has somehow really fucked up atlantic hurricanes. No Steering currents and lots of upper level shear. If its not in the gulf or Caribbean you can forget it.

peak season

9/17/2007 9:16:30 AM

oh man, i love the glaring over-generalization that everything comes back to global warming. absolutely genius. plenty of storms die when they encounter the strong upper-level shearing this storm encountered. open water, whatever. bad timing is all this was. get outta here with that global warming crap.

9/17/2007 11:13:59 AM

^^ I've read arguments that global warming would cause more intense hurricanes to hit us.

Global warming has become the new "El Ninyo." Everything that goes wrong, just blame it.

[Edited on September 17, 2007 at 12:27 PM. Reason : /]

9/17/2007 12:27:02 PM

Just because the Cape Verde season is off doesn't mean its global warming. But anyway, that thing off of Florida looks interesting, but it only gets more interesting once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Edited on September 18, 2007 at 9:34 PM. Reason : ASD]

9/18/2007 9:33:41 PM

possible hurricane in nawlins next week

9/20/2007 12:47:11 AM

^doubtful, hype has began...it is a ULL and it takes days for them to become tropical....probably a TS.

9/20/2007 3:15:47 AM

yeh looks like that one was a dud. now ppl are starting to notice something brewing in the western Caribbean that will eventually enter the gulf. we'll see.

9/20/2007 7:17:33 PM