^^ um, if you can get in on Facebook at the IPO price you buy as much as humanly possible.

I can't see any circumstance where it doesn't pop 30% and it could possibly double.

5/14/2012 3:04:33 PM

Quote :

"I wouldnt touch FB, even for the pop. Better options out there. Zuckerberg is putting lipstick on a pig http://www.privco.com/breaking-news-facebooks-admits-mobile-shift-damaging-business-faster-than-expected"

agreed.

5/14/2012 4:33:20 PM

Quote :

"um, if you can get in on Facebook at the IPO price you buy as much as humanly possible. I can't see any circumstance where it doesn't pop 30% and it could possibly double."

Like I said before, when conventional wisdom among the public is exactly this, there's a better chance of losing big. A big pop in the first hour, then a free fall straight to Hell.

5/14/2012 4:47:39 PM

Quote :

"BIDU is way down over the past few weeks. Anyone still like that one?"

man, i havent touched that one in a minute... you could probably do a search and see the last time i posted about.

if i get some time, i'll take a look at it.

5/14/2012 5:03:49 PM

I'd def buy if I could get in on the IPO.

5/14/2012 7:14:28 PM

^^^ conventional wisdom has nothing to do with it, this thing is going to be oversubscribed like a mother.

Do you realize how many phone calls brokers received the day they FILED for the ipo?


I'm not saying hold the thing 5 years, just hold it 10 minutes and you are guaranteed to make money. Doubt any of us are rich enough to sniff these shares

5/14/2012 8:23:10 PM

Quote :

"Sold some June $35 puts on JCP at $1.60."

derp

5/15/2012 4:07:49 PM

Looks like my MSSB contact may actually get me 100 shares of FB
Assuming that comes through how annoying would it be for me to undo some of my current contributions to my roth ira for this year?

5/17/2012 4:34:58 PM

I'm in line for some. Won't know until tomorrow.

5/17/2012 4:38:05 PM

Looks like they bumped the price and the size of the offering. Not going to get as big of a pop because of it probably. Still going to be a winner for the day though.

5/17/2012 7:44:59 PM

I'm playing ZNGA today as a proxy to FB.

5/18/2012 7:30:22 AM

^ watch FIO as well

5/18/2012 10:29:19 AM

Looks like I got 50 shares. Much less than I applied for.

5/18/2012 11:05:34 AM

I ended up with 100. Would have liked more, but can't complain.

5/18/2012 11:16:40 AM

^^, ^, how did you get them? What was your hookup?

5/18/2012 11:18:50 AM

Broker at Morgan Stanley

5/18/2012 11:24:02 AM

And the fun begins...

5/18/2012 11:30:52 AM

fizzle

5/18/2012 11:38:38 AM

Yep, almost back to 38.

5/18/2012 11:48:45 AM

5/18/2012 11:50:13 AM

znga getting destroyed. now halted.

5/18/2012 11:51:12 AM

ROFL I'm glad I didn't get in on this turd.

5/18/2012 11:53:52 AM

Apparently the system was clogged. FB is headed back up now.

5/18/2012 12:03:43 PM

banks are shorting other tech stocks to prop FB, in at $39.9 think im selling at close no matter what

5/18/2012 12:06:03 PM

picked up 40 shares at 39.60

why the fuck not

5/18/2012 12:06:06 PM

IPO at $38
market order at $38.57
a little more at $39.54

5/18/2012 12:10:32 PM

they really screwed the IPO'ers by moving the price from $32 to $38 today.

I've always wondered why more companies don't do that. Facebook really is changing the rules on everyone.

5/18/2012 12:26:21 PM

Yeah, it never made sense to me either.

5/18/2012 12:29:44 PM

love how the underwrites came in today and supported fb at $38 - it should be sitting much lower right now. what a joke.

5/18/2012 12:29:47 PM

wow, watching the yahoo live price, it's jumping the fuck around
41.22
39.55
41.31
38.01
41.35

in a 10 second span.

5/18/2012 12:31:54 PM

One of the HFT companies must have engineered the log jam that drove it back down to the IPO price.

I tip my hat to them.

5/18/2012 12:34:58 PM

yeah on one hand, hat tip.. on the other... that shit scares the fuck out of me

5/18/2012 12:53:45 PM

I thought FB was opening at $38; why does the tracker show $42?

/noob

5/18/2012 12:57:14 PM

yeah im staying out of this one. Broken market. Will probably regret it, but not worth it to me. Maybe when it settles...

5/18/2012 12:58:33 PM

I imagine people will start coming in from the sidelines now that it's somewhat stabilized.

Also I just noticed that YHOO is way up today. That's been interesting to follow over the past few weeks. We'll see what Third Point ends up doing now that they've ousted the CEO.

5/18/2012 1:03:52 PM

^^^

IPO for big firms was $38 but it opened at $42 for regular investors.

5/18/2012 1:21:00 PM

"It won't go below 38, the underwriters won't let it". That sweet, sweet false sense of security.

5/18/2012 2:27:01 PM

Quote :

"Morgan Housel ?@TMFHousel The average company with a market cap between $90-$100 billion has revenue of $77 billion. Facebook: $4 billion."

5/18/2012 2:44:08 PM

^ That's not an entirely fair comparison but yeah it definitely drives home a point.


The company is facing rising expenses, rising competition (pinterest just rec'd a $1.5 billion valuation), and is still struggling to monetize.

That being said, fundamentals never seem to matter on these type of stocks early on. Look at Netflix, amazon, etc. No one ever cares for the first few years. Then reality sets in and the stocks tank like a mother.

They even found people to buy groupon even though it was a GUARANTEED loser.



One point to make though contrary to what I said above. Once the lockup is over there is potential for the market to get flooded with 1.8 BILLION shares. If this stock is floundering you can bet your sac people will dump to lock in their riches.

[Edited on May 18, 2012 at 2:55 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2012 2:52:38 PM

looks like no one is getting rich off of FB on day 1

5/18/2012 3:08:39 PM

i just bought some FB @ 38.6

why the hell not...

5/18/2012 3:12:11 PM

One of my favorite excerpts from Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis. Seems applicable today, bold emphasis mine.

Quote :

"investment is grounded on the past whereas speculation looks primarily to the future. But this statement is far from complete. Both investment and speculation must meet the test of the future; they are subject to its vicissitudes and are judged by its verdict. But what we have said about the analyst and the future applies equally well to the concept of investment. For investment, the future is to be guarded against rather than to be profited from. If the future brings improvement, so much the better; but investment as such cannot be founded in any important degree upon the expectation of improvement. Speculation, on the other hand, may always properly--and often soundly--derive its basis and its justification from prospective developments that differ from past performance."

5/18/2012 3:18:52 PM

look at the bids showing up at $38 - they are not wanting $fb to fall below ipo price.

5/18/2012 3:44:25 PM

ask of 9,999,900 @ 38

Yeah that shit is not going below 38. Underwriters have definitely come to backup this price point.

5/18/2012 3:48:05 PM

Hey, even up a penny on opening day is a success.

5/18/2012 3:49:13 PM

so let me ask another noob question. I understand that supply/demand/investors perceptions/etc. cause the price of stocks to increase/decrease. I know that stocks are set at a certain price for IPO. But what determines the actual number/value of a stock? Why is FB $38.01? or $42.02? What's giving it that number?

5/18/2012 3:51:09 PM

JPM and MS sponsoring 380M for 38

5/18/2012 3:51:14 PM

38 support.

[Edited on May 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM. Reason : wow, didn't realize it would be so small....]

5/18/2012 3:54:03 PM

3.7M left on that ask @ 38. 5 mins left to close.......

5/18/2012 3:55:15 PM

the most recent price the stock traded hands at is its current price.

5/18/2012 3:56:34 PM