Katz: Grading the top-10 teams' schedules ( as well as a few teams that will be outside the top 10 and a glance at teams that might be on the bubble come March)

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3026792

State and teams of interest:

Quote :

"North Carolina First game: Nov. 14 versus Davidson in Charlotte Tournament choice: The Tar Heels are off to Las Vegas (Nov. 23-24) where, unlike last year's Kansas-Florida game, there is no set marquee matchup. North Carolina has to beat Old Dominion, and Louisville must take out BYU, for the possible top-10 game. In one sense it's a real tournament, but it also leaves some doubt as to whether or not the Tar Heels get the Cards. True road: Roy Williams has never shied away from going on the road. No other potential top-five team is taking as many true road games. North Carolina will play four straight on the road (six in a row away from Chapel Hill when including Las Vegas): at Ohio State in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge (Nov. 28), at Kentucky (Dec. 1), at Penn (Dec. 4) and at Rutgers (Dec. 16). Home slate: The Tar Heels didn't pour on the puff teams at all. UC Santa Barbara is a legit Big West title contender (Dec. 22), Nevada (Dec. 27) is still a threat in the WAC, and Kent State (Jan. 2) will be a viable champ in the MAC. Grade: A, but for different reasons than Memphis. UNC didn't get as many high-profile schools on the slate, let alone at home. But taking four straight true road games is impressive, especially when the team is a veteran bunch that can handle such a trip. Playing Davidson yet again, especially this season, to open the schedule will be one of the tougher tests. And then going neutral to Las Vegas for a possible Louisville game makes this schedule one of the best. "

Quote :

"Michigan State First game: Nov. 13 in the CBE Classic (TBD) in East Lansing, Mich. True road: The Spartans are playing, like Indiana, just one true road game. They'll face Bradley (Dec. 4) in Peoria, Ill. Neutral: Michigan State is loading up in this category with games in Kansas City (Nov. 19-20) against Missouri and then either Maryland or UCLA, against BYU (Dec. 8) in Salt Lake City (not Provo), and Texas (Dec. 22) in Auburn Hills, Mich. Home slate: The conferences scheduled N.C. State for East Lansing (Nov. 28) in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. None of the other true home games stand out. And while that might be disappointing for the season ticket holders, that's OK considering there are still quality teams on the schedule. Grade: Tentative C since there are some unknowns on the schedule, like whether or not Michigan State will meet UCLA in Kansas City. Texas should be an NCAA team. But the rest of the folks are clearly not locks to make the field, not even N.C. State. So, we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach as to how many NCAA teams end up on this schedule."

Quote :

"N.C. State: The Wolfpack have a schedule that might help them get wins, but might not do enough for the power-rating points. They had no choice and got a high-profile road game in Michigan State (Nov. 28) in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. And while the Wolfpack are playing road games -- at East Carolina (Dec. 8) and Seton Hall (Dec. 27) -- neither team will be close to NCAA or maybe even NIT worthy. The Wolfpack better hope it gets Villanova in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando (Nov. 25). The best game, outside of Michigan State, is maybe playing Davidson at home (Dec. 21)."

Quote :

"Davidson: The Wildcats are doing all they can to improve their power-rating for a possible NCAA at-large berth. Playing Duke (Dec. 1) and North Carolina (Nov. 14) at the Bobcats Arena in Charlotte, as well as the N.C. State game and UCLA in the Wooden Classic game in Anaheim (Dec. 8) make Davidson a player in March. Now, if the Wildcats lose all of them, then they might not be as much of an at-large factor. But at least they should be credited for scheduling these games."

Bonus for you Jaybee1200

Quote :

"Tennessee First game: Nov. 9 versus Temple True road: The Vols go to Chattanooga (Dec. 4), Xavier (Dec. 22) and Memphis (Feb. 23). Neutral: Tennessee is in the Legends Classic in Newark, N.J. with Texas, West Virginia and New Mexico State (Nov. 23-24), heads to Nashville to play Western Kentucky (Dec. 15) and the monster matchup with Gonzaga in Seattle (Dec. 29). That's a total of seven games away from Knoxville. That's not too shabby at all for a top-10 program. Home slate: If you're a season-ticket holder, then the Vols didn't give you much in terms of high-profile games. The best name among the seven home games is Temple. Grade: A-minus. Bruce Pearl deserves plenty of credit for his willingness to take on the Gonzaga game when so many other teams passed on going to Seattle to play the Zags. This schedule ertainly will be challenging for a team that will need to be ready as the target once the SEC begins."

9/19/2007 8:13:18 PM

is there anyway i can bet on a line for ncstates season record. we're so underated it would be easy money.

9/19/2007 9:20:29 PM

^ difficult to say how much I would bet on it. I do think that we are underated, but we did lose one of the most important parts of our team last season (Atsur). And, despite a couple great wins, we did only manage to barely get into the NIT.

Plus, optimism is bad for State fans

All that said, I think that we will be ranked for most of the season. I am just debating if we will be a top 5 team like many want to argue.

9/19/2007 10:07:39 PM

well 50 dollars and i'll get a 3,000 check in the mail april 2nd.

9/19/2007 10:12:01 PM

Someone will step up and replace atsur. He was just solid. The guys now have some skills he didn't have even though they might lack experience. Lowe appears to have some talent working with PG. With all of those factors combined, we will make up for atsur.

I'm surprised by the chicken little posts in this thread, seeing as how college basketball is very dynamic and players frequently improve dramatically from year to year.

[Edited on September 19, 2007 at 10:16 PM. Reason : sdf]

9/19/2007 10:15:32 PM

Yeah just look at how McCauley and Costner progressed from their freshman years up to the Michigan game and on into the season. By the Michigan game they were really in a groove and well by the end of the season they were rated the #7 PF and #2 SF in college basketball for the upcoming year by Rivals.com.

9/19/2007 11:50:56 PM

http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stories/091807aae.html

Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook - Preseason Top 25
1. North Carolina
2. UCLA
3. Georgetown
4. Tennessee
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Kansas
8. Louisville
9. Indiana
10. Marquette
11. Kentucky
12. Washington State
13. Oregon
14. Duke
15. Arizona
16. USC
17. NC State
18. Wisconsin
19. Texas
20. Stanford
21. Clemson
22. Gonzaga
23. Syracuse
24. Arkansas
25. Villanova (possible opponent in the Old Spice Classic)

9/20/2007 12:09:25 AM

^why isn't Ohio St. ranked? don't they have a bunch of McD AAs coming in to replace Oden and the gang?

9/20/2007 12:12:40 AM

so its like we're playing small quick scoring pgs all year

taiwan lawson
drew nitezel
gregory paulus
scottie reynolds
sean singleterry

could be tough but at least we will have a fast pg that can have a chance with the faster ones unlike atsur. cmon degand, gonzalez and company stay in front of em!

[Edited on September 20, 2007 at 12:43 AM. Reason : mop it]

9/20/2007 12:42:52 AM

^greg paulus, are you kidding me?

9/20/2007 12:59:59 AM

^^Fells with his mind in the game is the perfect counter to all of them. As fast, taller, longer, more athletic.

9/20/2007 1:25:11 AM

Quote :

"Home slate: If you're a season-ticket holder, then the Vols didn't give you much in terms of high-profile games. The best name among the seven home games is Temple."

why are they just looking at ooc?

vandy
florida
kentucky
ohio state

9/20/2007 4:14:13 AM

http://www.charlotte.com/sports/story/285303.html

Quote :

"GUARD VISITED LAST WEEKEND Tar Heels investigate possible violation Prospect played basketball with former UNC players KEN TYSIAC ktysiac@charlotteobserver.com CHAPEL HILL --North Carolina is conducting a review to determine whether NCAA rules were broken during a basketball recruit's campus visit last weekend. Guard Iman Shumpert of Oak Park, Ill., told the Observer he spoke with and played pickup basketball against NBA players Raymond Felton, Sean May and Marvin Williams during his official visit. All three played for North Carolina's 2005 NCAA championship team. "They were just using different ways to try and persuade me to go there, especially Sean May," Shumpert told the InsideCarolina Web site, whose report led to the school's review. The Web site is not affiliated with the school. Felton and May play for the Charlotte Bobcats, Williams the Atlanta Hawks. NCAA rules forbid representatives of a school's athletics interests from making recruiting contacts. North Carolina assistant athletics director for compliance Amy Herman, who is conducting the review, said the NBA players are considered athletics representatives because they have promoted North Carolina. NCAA Rule 13.02.3.1 states that once someone is identified as a representative of athletics interests, they retain that identity indefinitely. May and Williams are enrolled in classes, so Herman said they're allowed to talk to recruits just like any other student. She said the rules for students apply to May and Williams just as they do for students in the Rams Club, the athletics booster group. "If they meet the qualifications of a student, then they're able to have contact," Herman said. Felton is not enrolled, and Herman said she plans to talk with him to determine the extent of his involvement. In Felton's case, NCAA rules allow only for "unavoidable incidental contact" involving "normal civility." She also plans to talk with UNC coaches after they return from recruiting out of town. If a violation occurred, North Carolina would follow normal procedure and self-report it to the NCAA as a secondary (not major) violation, Herman said. Schools often self-report violations of this type. The NCAA does not comment on possible rule violations. Shumpert attended North Carolina's football game during last weekend's visit. "(The three former players said) nothing but good things about North Carolina," he said. "And then talked about how it helped them prepare for playing at that next level (NBA). But they were all pretty considerate about how it was a hard decision for me, and they sort of backed off when it came to that regard." Shumpert said the players told him he had to make the best decision for himself and his family and not to let anyone pressure him. He also has visits scheduled to Marquette and Georgia Tech and plans to choose between the three schools before his senior basketball season begins. The 6-foot-4 guard is ranked No. 15 in his class by scout.com. Efforts to reach Felton and May were unsuccessful. Herman said previous NCAA rulings do not prohibit prospects from playing in pickup games against former players. UNC sports information director Steve Kirschner said it's not unusual for the school to conduct a review of possible rule violations."

And nothing will even happen, but when DT plays a pickup game with some State assistant coaches after already committing, and stays with a high school friend during his official visit, we get a year's probation that probably cost us at least a Final Four, perhaps even back to back national titles.

9/20/2007 11:34:17 AM

"Of course, there is NOTHING NEW to this practice in Chapel Hill. Quite frankly, we’re surprised that it is even an issue in light of the years of behavior that the local media and NCAA has chosen to ignore. For example, in the early 1990s highly-recruited high school basketball player, Jerry Stackhouse, openly admitted that Michael Jordan made phone calls - some during dead periods - to the Kinson star that played a significant role in his selection of going to UNC."

http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/20/unc-hoops-breaks-recruiting-rules/

9/20/2007 12:04:00 PM

Quote :

"And nothing will even happen, but when DT plays a pickup game with some State assistant coaches after already committing, and stays with a high school friend during his official visit, we get a year's probation that probably cost us at least a Final Four, perhaps even back to back national titles."

Am I the only one that doesn't buy this story. David Thompson was probably the most highly recruited basketball player in the history of North Carolina. I bet there were far more serious violations committed by both State and the other schools recruiting him. I'm guessing the NCAA busted us for something stupid because it makes them look better than revealing All-Americans receive cars, thousands of dollars, and job offers for their parents during the recruiting process.

9/20/2007 2:31:29 PM

Well I thought DT addressed what happened in regards to getting State on probation in his book. I don't know b/c I haven't ever read it. It's kind of suspect that the guy from the NCAA that did all the enforcement was Bill Guthridge's roommate in college.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=6688

Quote :

"We got to listen to a few minutes of Dave Glenn on 850 The Buzz Tuesday afternoon, and a caller suggested reading "pages 38 and 39" in David Thompson’s new book, which we did, since we were near a bookstore and actually read it during commercials. Nice timing! Anyway, in the pages referenced, Thompson explained his theory of how State got probation: UNC did it. More specifically, UNC (all according to Thompson, not DBR), a) busted State for assistant coach Eddie Biedenbach playing in a pickup game; b) had aerial photos of the Thompson family driveway being paved; c) Bill Guthridge’s former college roommate (not Gene Keady, another roommate) was involved in NCAA enforcement and took marching orders from Gut when he came through the Triangle. He ended up saying some things he probably couldn’t prove, but we’re sure some UNC fans were sputtering. Okay, fuel for the fire for Thompson’s sake! In Raw Recruits, Tree Rollins supposedly got Phil Ford to admit to getting a van for going to UNC."

9/20/2007 4:50:39 PM

28 days til Ballin at the old Barn

september is going way too slow.

9/21/2007 9:50:40 AM

Waiting on the season tix in the mail!!!

9/21/2007 11:23:27 AM

^^yarly. we're in the thick of football season and i'm more interested in off season bball discussion than our game against clemson. i definitely can't say it was that way two years ago. i want to pull a rip van winkle here.

9/21/2007 11:27:32 AM

I'm hoping we have a great season and everything, but here we are again building this season and our expectations up to monumental levels. Hickson is going to be a freshman. We have a 2nd year coach. Big question mark at PG. And Brass Monkey is predicting an undefeated season (not trying to call you out, just trying to prove my point)?

Just trying to be realistic... I'd be ecstatic if we can be in the top 25 for the better part of the season, but do expect some bumps in the road. There are a shit ton of other schools out there with a shit ton more talent than we have come tourny time.

9/21/2007 3:12:19 PM

^ I agree on most of that post, but our frontline of Hickson, McCauley, and Costner is definitely one of the best in the nation so there is not a bunch of teams with a shit ton more talent when compared to our front three.

9/21/2007 3:16:17 PM

^ thanks for that .. our big guys do look good, but Hickson is still unproven. Not saying he won't be a force to reckon with, but still he comes in as an unproven freshman in NCAA competition. That said, there are 5 players on a basketball team, not just 3, and I would guess there are going to be plenty of teams out there with more talent top to bottom than our team.

But I do hope we go undefeated. I would burn my apartment complex to the ground.

9/21/2007 3:54:10 PM

9/21/2007 4:22:33 PM

Quote :

"I would guess there are going to be plenty of teams out there with more talent top to bottom than our team."

More talent? The Costner/McCauley combo has already proven to be one of the best frontcourts in the country. Now add Hickson and Smith to that for depth. Grant at SF is faster than the vast majority of college players. Inconsistent play, but undeniable talent. Same deal with Fells--streaky shooter, gets burned on some plays, but an amazing athlete.

The only question is how much production we'll get out of our PGs. Talent-wise, we're loaded.

9/21/2007 4:31:31 PM

yeah more talent. all i'm saying is this shit happens every year.. gavin granted we have a lot more talent, but I'm gonna try to not drink the kool-aid just yet ... we'll see. To predict us before the season starts to be undefeated or final four is absurd right now, just trying to point that out.

I'm not saying that it CAN'T happen, but to expect it is crazy

[Edited on September 21, 2007 at 4:57 PM. Reason : .]

9/21/2007 4:51:25 PM

I wish State the best of luck and will be hoping for a spot in the sweet 16 (and that they get sent to Denver for rounds 1 and 2)

9/21/2007 5:03:17 PM

Quote :

"And Brass Monkey is predicting an undefeated season (not trying to call you out, just trying to prove my point)?"

Quote :

"Predictions Red and White Game - White team Barton College - W UNC Pembroke - W William & Mary - W New Orleans - W Rider - W Penn State or South Carolina - W TBA - W (Old Spice Classic Champions) @ Michigan State - W @ East Carolina - W South Carolina State - W Davidson - W Cincinnati - W @ Seton Hall - W Western Carolina - W Presbyterian - W North Carolina Central - W @ North Carolina - W @ Clemson - W Miami - W Georgia Tech - W @ Florida State - W @ Duke - W Wake Forest - W Virginia Tech - W @ Maryland - W @ Boston College - W Clemson - W North Carolina - W @ Virginia - W Florida State - W Duke - W Wake Forest - W ACC Tournament Bye Friday - W Saturday - W Sunday - W (ACC Champions) NCAA Tournament 1st Round - W 2nd Round - W Sweet Sixteen - W Elite Eight - W Final Four - W National Championship Game - W NC State 2008 National Champions (39-0; 16-0) Set the new record for wins in a season, and the first team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers to go undefeated. One can only dream. "

You talking about that? That was a dream/joke prediction, which I stated in the prediction with "One can only dream. ". I wasn't being serious. I mean besides the fact that I list us winning unforseeable games where we don't even know who we would be playing, like those in the ACCT and NCAAT, I also made predictions for the Red & White game as well as the two exhibition games. That should have tipped you off that it wasn't a serious prediction.

9/21/2007 6:36:01 PM

Quote :

"but here we are again building this season and our expectations up to monumental levels. "

gavin and brandon were the ones talking about a NC.

9/21/2007 7:14:50 PM

heres your official take it out back and beat its tail prediction

Red and White Game - White team
Barton College - W
UNC Pembroke - W
William & Mary - W
New Orleans - W
Rider - W
Penn State or South Carolina - W
TBA - W (Old Spice Classic)
if Villanova then L
@ Michigan State - L
@ East Carolina - W
South Carolina State - W
Davidson - W
Cincinnati - W
@ Seton Hall - W
Western Carolina - W
Presbyterian - W
North Carolina Central - W
@ North Carolina - W
@ Clemson - W
Miami - L
Georgia Tech - W
@ Florida State - W
@ Duke - L
Wake Forest - W
Virginia Tech - W
@ Maryland - W
@ Boston College - W
Clemson - W
North Carolina - L(major screwjob)
@ Virginia - W
Florida State - W
Duke - W
Wake Forest - W

ACC Tournament-2 seed
Bye
Friday - W
Saturday - W
Sunday - W (ACC Champions)

NCAA Tournament
1st Round - W
2nd Round - W
Sweet Sixteen - W
Elite Eight - W
Final Four - L

33-6 (13-3)

[Edited on September 21, 2007 at 7:18 PM. Reason : possibly 34-5 if we don't meet nova in orlando]

9/21/2007 7:17:31 PM

lol

Quote :

"Miami - L"

wtf

[Edited on September 21, 2007 at 10:53 PM. Reason : -]

9/21/2007 10:52:54 PM

you know a wtf game is gonna happen out of nowhere

9/21/2007 11:00:20 PM

i'm just saying a trip to the big tourney would be a step forward and I guess should be expected with what our team is at this point. If we get that I'll be happy. But Brass Monkey you started this thread and have probably posted 3 pages on your own in this thread to build up our team as a perennial power when we have yet to step on the court this season and are coming off a mediocre (yet very brilliant at the end of the season) year. Believe me I hope you are right, but this shit (inflated expectations) happens EVERY year, so if we miss the sweet sixteen I still wouldn't call this a disappointing season as long as we make the big ole dance.

9/21/2007 11:17:35 PM

if NC State makes it to the final four, I will shave

9/21/2007 11:46:39 PM

okay

9/21/2007 11:50:21 PM

hahaha. BOOK IT!

9/21/2007 11:51:04 PM

^^^ head, balls, back what we talking about here?

9/22/2007 12:44:45 AM

points

9/22/2007 12:59:25 AM

face... and I will throw in the balls

9/22/2007 1:39:09 AM

^ and we'll throw 'em back

haha

9/22/2007 2:45:40 AM

yeah and if Tenn goes to teh final four I'll grow a beard

9/22/2007 11:46:45 AM

Quote :

"But Brass Monkey you started this thread and have probably posted 3 pages on your own in this thread to build up our team as a perennial power when we have yet to step on the court this season and are coming off a mediocre (yet very brilliant at the end of the season) year."

I know I've posted a lot in this thread since I created it, but I have not tried to build our team up as a perennial power. Mainly I have just posted information such as preseason polls, news stories, etc. Pretty much anything to get discussion going. Are we a historical power? Yes. Have we been a team to reckon with since 1990? Not really. We had a pretty good team the year we came in 2nd in the ACC, and if we could have established a go to guy the year after Hodge left, we could have probably won more games (the BC double OT game comes to mind). Could we win the National Championship this year? Yeah, anything can happen, but obviously the odds are against us. I, unlike Gavin Grant, think we will lose 8-10 games.

I'll admit that I'm glad to see a lot of preseason polls having us in the Top 25. It's kind of easy to see why we could be a Top 25 team. Besides UNC there aren't really any teams that have more talent and depth than us in the ACC. Duke has talent, but no real post presence (Zoubek sucks), and will probably look like a lot of Sendek's teams with a live by the 3, die by the 3 mentality. Clemson has a lot of returning players, but talent wise State's players are better. Also Clemson sucks at free throws. They've lost a lot of games b/c they couldn't hit free throws. Maryland lost three talented seniors and I don't see them challenging for the ACC. I think they'll probably finish 5th or 6th. Florida State has possibly the worst coach in the ACC in Leonard Hamilton, a guy who parlayed a #1 recruiting class into zero trips to the NCAA Tournament. GT is an unknown since they lost Young and Crittenton, and West, but will have 3 seniors in Morrow, Dickey, and Smith. BC lost ACC POY Jared Dudley, and that asshat Sean Marshall, so Rice will have to probably do everything. I think they will miss the NCAAT this year. Same for UVA, Singletary will probably have to do everything.

9/22/2007 4:25:55 PM

Lets just hope that finding a new PG will not mirror the football team finding a new QB.

/jinks

9/22/2007 4:32:35 PM

let's just hope october flies by

9/22/2007 4:35:19 PM

Quote :

"let's just hope october flies by"

9/22/2007 4:36:04 PM

You know what Sidney needs to do, post a picture of the Alamodome in the locker room and have a little note below it that says, "DO YOU WANT TO BE HERE COME APRIL?"

9/22/2007 4:46:30 PM

^nah, i'm positive that Sid comes up with way better shit than that.

9/22/2007 4:53:46 PM

Quote :

"yeah and if Tenn goes to teh final four I'll grow a beard"

I hope you can grow it....because I think they will damn near do it.

UT is going to be sick this year.

9/22/2007 4:55:03 PM

bttt...b/c a good basketball season may help to balance out what looks like a long football season.

9/22/2007 11:31:11 PM

if basketball season disappoints i'm just going to move out of the country.

9/22/2007 11:40:39 PM

Quote :

"balance out what looks like a long football season."

indeed.. already has been a long season. 1-3 .. November can't get here soon enough.

9/22/2007 11:47:27 PM