ya. good analysis Bobby.


...this thread is coming along fast

[Edited on January 10, 2008 at 5:53 PM. Reason : sdfsdfdsf]

1/10/2008 5:52:18 PM

ima get some mysql when it debuts

1/10/2008 6:02:29 PM

How many readers on this board trade primarily tech?

I am wondering because I am starting to believe that the returns in tech are influenced by the amount of tech employees who are long the tech sector. Normally, I would think that small players really couldn't influence anything but my hunch is that the number of tech sector employees who are long tech is staggering.

1/11/2008 8:52:43 AM

Quote :

"Market rally in part on CFC and BAC deal. However, I am suspicous about the terms. If very unfavorable terms are announced then Citi, Merrill, etc could be in for a shalacking. Consider this: Suppose that CFC goes bankrupt by the end of 2009 and the executives could have seen it coming. Then in turning down even a $2 per share bid from BAC then they could be liable for failure to act in shareholder interest. I am not saying the terms will be bad, they could be quite good. Or the deal could be rumor. However, even if true the deal is not necessarily a positive sign. "

Best comment I read about it:

Quote :

"Never seen a shotgun wedding before."

1/11/2008 9:02:56 AM

BoA to buy CFC for $4b in stock.

1/11/2008 9:27:49 AM

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080111markets.aspx

1/11/2008 10:45:59 AM

ETFC up 50% in a few days... i put a buy in at 2.40 the other day and for some reason it didn't go through

1/11/2008 10:57:37 AM

Quote :

"How many readers on this board trade primarily tech? I am wondering because I am starting to believe that the returns in tech are influenced by the amount of tech employees who are long the tech sector. Normally, I would think that small players really couldn't influence anything but my hunch is that the number of tech sector employees who are long tech is staggering."

i don't know if i'd say 'primarily', but i do trade in a lot of tech. however, i do not work in tech.


i'm getting hammered in RIMM and MA. RIMM is down with all of tech, and MA is down on bad earinings guidance by credit card companies. i'm holding onto both. RIMM because i don't want to take a loss and it could swing back just as fast, and MA because they're not a credit card company - they're a transaction processor and shouldn't be beat down so much.

1/11/2008 12:08:12 PM

theres a guy here at work in his mid 30s who has been contributing a ton to his 401k since he started pretty much and he took a gamble last year when our company's stock hit a real low (about $77 a share i think he said)...put 40% of his 401k into it because he said he was sure it was going over $100 for the year even tho he knew it was risk.

well he sold it at 160 last year (topped out at 168 so he timed it well). over 200% return on 40% of his 401k for 2007 = gg for him last year heh.

[Edited on January 11, 2008 at 12:24 PM. Reason : ]

1/11/2008 12:23:23 PM

i wonder if this will do something for AMGN eventually:

http://tinyurl.com/2f3bqa

1/11/2008 1:34:19 PM

I do mostly tech but thats b/c I work in tech. I don't like to trade what I don't know. Speaking of tech, still thinking about getting into rimm.

1/11/2008 1:58:07 PM

Markets are getting raped.

1/11/2008 3:30:35 PM

jesus tiddy fucking christ, my portfolio is down 3% for the fucking day.

My only stock in the green is damned SIRI which has been nothing but a lead weight the last year which i only kept in hopes of a merger.

[Edited on January 11, 2008 at 3:33 PM. Reason : l]

1/11/2008 3:32:16 PM

Eugh. I need to just stop checking them.

1/11/2008 3:32:25 PM

*shoots self*

1/11/2008 3:36:26 PM

Quote :

"Picked up some TTM"

This is awesome:

http://www.geekologie.com/2008/01/worlds_cheapest_car_unveiled_c.php

1/11/2008 4:41:32 PM

Quote :

"still thinking about getting into rimm."

Can still go lower, don't go bottom feeding just yet, especially in the midst of the "R" word, its PE relative to the Apple's, Google's, etc is worth looking into.

1/11/2008 6:36:53 PM

good point

1/11/2008 6:38:02 PM

Returns in 2007 ~ 60% (all from MFs)

International MFs FTW.

(best performing one returned 76%!)

1/11/2008 6:51:19 PM

Did you ever buy that condo in Dubai?

1/11/2008 6:58:37 PM

and the reasoning as I remain bullish

ADBE -new product cycle
AET -solid
BUD - consumers seeking affordably priced beer
BBY - electronics are the must have consumer item, Circuit City hurting, CompUSA done
GLW - exposure to LCD market
FCX - copper, China...enough said
HON - nice margins
MCD - great performer, nice dividends/buybacks, new high quality coffee station will improve margins/draw customers
NWS.a - good assets/global exposure
OXY - need some exposure to wild energy market
X - steel + lack of iron ore in China = US Steel ftw

those are my speculative stocks, everything else should be in mutual funds (plenty of overseas exposure but keep US holdings strong, as the dollar has reached a bottom and will improve USD returns)

good luck, should be quite the interesting year

1/11/2008 8:55:12 PM

^ i find ADBE and X interesting.

i'll be looking to unload my IAU as gold approached 950

1/11/2008 10:29:10 PM

bg they brought NH2 back from the dead this week

1/11/2008 10:33:12 PM

haha, it was a great strategy, just no support from our end

1/11/2008 11:58:25 PM

Quote :

"Did you ever buy that condo apartment in Dubai UAE?"

Yes, I did. Paying $800/month for it now, for the next 3 or so years. That's the main reason I can't invest as much as I wuld like to right now.

1/12/2008 4:28:47 AM

Whats the diff between condo and apt?

1/12/2008 9:57:42 AM

Who will buy Citi?

With BofA ponying up for Countrywide and JPMorgan looking into WaMu, who is left to buy Citi? Wells Fargo? That would be a hoot. I am starting to believe that Citi may be loosing this game of muscial chairs. That is, unless the Prince Alwaleed put is still in place. It will be interesting to see how many times he is willing to double down on a loosing investment.

[Edited on January 12, 2008 at 12:49 PM. Reason : .]

1/12/2008 12:44:43 PM

WTF r u talking about ^

citi is not that bad off and besides they are getting a cash infusion by some arab country in dubai

1/12/2008 12:52:43 PM

kwsmith2 knows what he's talking about.

1/12/2008 1:14:35 PM

i'm just in the house of pain

1/12/2008 1:17:39 PM

right now, we all are, but such is the market.

1/12/2008 1:30:46 PM

just gonna wait for things to settle in a few months then re-up on bargains

1/12/2008 2:05:25 PM

Quote :

"citi is not that bad off and besides they are getting a cash infusion by some arab country in dubai"

The latest rumors I've heard have the Q4 2007 writedowns at $24B. Now consider the following:

1) Citi has about 200B in Tier One capital and something around 2.5T in risk weighted assets giving the a capital ratio of 8%. You need a capital ratio of 7% to recieve the highest credit ratings and a capita ratio of 6% to maintain "well capitalized" status with the Fed.

2) If Citi's credit rating slips that is the begining of the end

3) If Citi looses well capitalized status then it must apply for a waiver for its deposits to remain FDIC insured.

4) 24B writedown would impy a capital ratio of about 7.04%

5) A second writedown of the magnitude would put them at 6.08%

Now all of that seems bad but here is the real upshot. If I were Citi I would not a write down a dime that I didn't have to. Which means all this traditional talk of "clearing the deck" by putting all the writedowns in one quarter doesn't hold.

They could have $100B more in writedowns and they wouldn't say a word. I am not saying they have $100B in writedowns but the possibility remains that they have more to come. And they have Credit Card exposure, which I believe is the next shoe to drop.

Long Term Capital was the big baddest kid on the block, so I don't think Citi former dominance counts for all that much.

[Edited on January 12, 2008 at 2:26 PM. Reason : .]

1/12/2008 2:24:21 PM

I'm probably going to pick up some BAC next week because in light of the contrywide announcement there is no way BoA is going to cut dividends. I figure I can lock in a 7% yield and pick up a undervalued solid financial.

1/12/2008 4:21:16 PM

^^i like the points (especially about the credit cards, which will be the next domino in line), but who is gonna be able buy citi...don't think private equity has enough money (even blackstone/carlyle) and i don't think the big ibanks are gonna touch it...it's just too big

1/13/2008 11:45:59 AM

the gvt is going to have to step in.

1/13/2008 8:02:18 PM

Either the Chinese government or the Emirati government or someone like that will just buy a bigger slice at what's seen as bargain prices.

1/14/2008 9:08:20 AM

I think CC is going to be acquired by some private equity firm in the near future. i'm gonna buy some

1/14/2008 9:21:14 AM

Premarket is looking good so far on the stocks I've checked.

1/14/2008 9:28:51 AM

yeah looks like IBM's gonna pull the market up on strong earnings.

1/14/2008 9:59:45 AM

Whew. Glad I didn't dump all that company stock.

1/14/2008 10:01:26 AM

Sometimes this whole thread reminds me of Family Guy...

"BUY WAFFLES!!"

[Edited on January 14, 2008 at 11:30 AM. Reason : ]

1/14/2008 11:30:14 AM

fully monetized my INP and then some. letting the rest of it ride on house money.

1/14/2008 12:47:24 PM

i'm thinking about picking up cc and etfc shortly... been watching them closely.

1/14/2008 2:35:59 PM

I've read good things about e-trade.

1/14/2008 3:16:32 PM

^^^ I actually sold some put options on waffles, I just have to hope that their earnings aren't stellar.

1/14/2008 3:17:20 PM

they've had a beating like a red-headed step-child... i think it could go from its current 3.23 to $10 by the end of this year. gonna get some shares, maybe draw it out some to make sure i don't lose my shirt.

i bet they get bought out and send shares up instantly.

1/14/2008 3:19:26 PM

MacWorld tomorrow, right?
Could be interesting to watch AAPL.

1/14/2008 11:05:55 PM

maybe, but i'm just not feeling it right now

1/15/2008 12:20:30 AM

I don't think they have any amazing announcements tomorrow.

1/15/2008 4:37:32 AM