I was kind of surprised a Fox News crew attacked a candidate for being pro-life. Then even more mind blowing, after being told that 83% of Americans agree that life of the mother should take precedence, he still claimed that his belief is a nation-wide belief.

8/7/2015 1:19:41 AM

Scott Walker has zero chance, based on his hair alone

[Edited on August 7, 2015 at 1:54 AM. Reason : wow Rubio has large ears]

8/7/2015 1:35:33 AM

I think if the GOP actually wants to beat Hillary, Rubio is their best shot. The Bush name is still too toxic, and the rest are either too dumb or too crazy for the general election. Kasich would do alright but he'll never win a GOP primary, way too pragmatic and ultimately liberal in his views.

8/7/2015 9:31:40 AM

Rubio doesn't seem too bad. His interview on the Daily Show was pretty good and I have a feeling he has to pander a lot to the hardliners, but I don't think he truly believes the party line.

If I had to pick, it'd be either Kasich or Rubio.

8/7/2015 9:41:30 AM

Looks like most of these polls show Trump winning by a wide margin, fwiw

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/drudge-poll-donald-trump-wins/2015/08/07/id/666039/
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/08/republican_presidential_debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html

also:

8/7/2015 9:59:03 AM

I guess the final nominee will be either Cruz or Rubio, one of the two Latino immigrant descendants.



[Edited on August 7, 2015 at 10:04 AM. Reason : ;]

8/7/2015 10:01:59 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/07/donald-trump-late-night-angry-tweets-megyn-kelly-and-it-is-epic/

Trump is melting down about Kelley. I think I was wrong about him, he was pretty bad during the debate.

8/7/2015 10:17:33 AM

If only Mitt Romney were sill alive......

8/7/2015 10:39:27 AM

Quote :

"@realDonaldTrump .@FrankLuntz I won every poll of the debate tonight by massive margins @DRUDGE_REPORT & @TIME so where did you find that dumb panel."

It's a valid question, but I think we already know the answer.

Quote :

"he was pretty bad during the debate."

I thought he was entertaining as hell.

8/7/2015 10:43:10 AM

https://www.emptywheel.net/2015/08/07/christie-lied-about-911-to-try-to-shut-down-pauls-opposition-to-dragnet-spying/

8/7/2015 1:03:46 PM

http://i.imgur.com/Y5pukAg.jpg

Comments on Fox's Facebook page... Lots of people seem mad about trumps treatment.

8/7/2015 1:25:39 PM

Quote :

"I do think that Trump lost: He said nothing, not one syllable, that infused his candidacy with any of the gravitas that it sorely needs, and there was something pouty and petulant about his whole performance. Some of his rivals managed, even under the Fox fire, to look grateful to be there and to enjoy themselves, at least a bit. Marco Rubio did."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/opinion/a-foxy-rowdy-republican-debate.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=opinion-c-col-left-region®ion=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

This quote doesn't capture the tone of the column, but i felt the same about trumps performance.

8/7/2015 3:02:58 PM

Quote :

"Almost seems like Trump is reclusing himself from the race. Not sure what he thinks he can gain by attacking the entire GOP's propaganda arm."

The GOP didn't like him to start with. Read the Politico story I posted, the RNC Party Chairman sent out instructions to candidates to just ignore him after Trump told him to "fuck off" pretty much when the Chairman said to lay off the heavy criticism of other Republican candidates.

In other words, he's making himself the populist anti-Republican establishment candidate.

DVR'd debate, will watch it tonight. Did laugh yesterday seeing that the initial question in the 5pm debate was "why do you people matter?"

[Edited on August 7, 2015 at 4:08 PM. Reason : /]

8/7/2015 4:05:24 PM

Quote :

"Holy god damn shit. Trump admitting that giving money to politicians means you can call in favors at some later point. Admits its a broken system but none on stage seem to suggest it should be fixed in any way "

I agree it's a broken system, I just don't know how you can do it. There's no law anyone can ever write and will stand up in court that will be able to stop a group or individual from putting money toward "a cause". That is true in far more countries than just ours. I'm looking beyond theoretical idealism bullshit, I'm talking practical implementation and there are zero loopholes.

8/7/2015 4:19:08 PM

http://www.salon.com/2015/08/07/bimbobackfire_megyn_kellys_facebook_gets_overrun_by_trump_supporters/

Def a little schadenfreude on my end from this.

8/7/2015 11:27:00 PM

so what's the downside of Kasich, aside from that he probably isn't crazy enough to win a 2016 GOP primary?

8/7/2015 11:57:15 PM

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/08/06/kasich-record--attack/31256837/

He seems pretty reasonable from what I see there.

He's like a Romney without the elitist, out of touch feel (so far).

8/8/2015 12:17:22 AM

Yeah seems in the same vein as Huntsman, or pretty close, minus the foreign policy credentials

8/8/2015 9:14:38 AM

He advocated and signed into law more anti-abortion measures than just about any governor.

8/8/2015 10:04:40 AM

So do any of you think that the things about their views (be it on abortion, immigration, healthcare, etc) that the GOP presidential hopefulls are saying now, will cause them to have trouble going from right ---> center later in the general election?

8/8/2015 12:38:58 PM

Quote :

"so what's the downside of Kasich"

The two sides of the education reform debate both see him as a bit of a joke: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2015/06/12/troubled-ohio-charter-schools-have-become-a-joke-literally/

He took the Republican "charter schools = good" mantra to a silly, corrupt extreme, and now Ohio charter schools are the shame of the reform movement and exhibit A for those opposed to the reform movement.

8/8/2015 4:58:04 PM

I can't believe a sexist, misogynist, woman-objectifying, racist jerk is taken seriously, let alone as a future president... of all places, in the US.

And since he is leading, I guess those adjectives also apply to all his supporters.

8/8/2015 6:01:01 PM

I think it just speaks to the average GOP primary voter today. These are typically the most ideologically extreme members of the voting bloc, which in the GOP's case, happens to be mostly brash obnoxious racists who hate all levels of government. Remember back in 2008, the people holding up monkey dolls with nooses and asking McCain if Obama was a Muslim? That's the Republican "base" now and the only reason Trump's numbers aren't even higher is because the establishment has yet to embrace him as a legitimate candidate. It's basically the final form of the southern strategy championed by Nixon in the 60s. Reap what you sow.

8/8/2015 6:43:07 PM

You can't blame the south on trump. There is a vast swath through the middle of this country that makes your average southern state look progressive. Go visit anywhere in Kansas or even Boise and you'd think you were in some backwoods southern town minus the southern accent and confederate flags.

8/8/2015 7:02:33 PM

^^^ based on my Facebook, i think trump supporters cut across those labels. If his poll numbers climb higher than their 25% about republicans, this could also reflect trump's broad appeal.

I think Trump's supporters are people who just don't like hearing the overly cloy, rehearsed, political speak that characterize the other candidates, sort of how Bernie Sanders supporters like that he's very direct about things. I doubt all Bernie supporters would proudly proclaim they are socialists, but they still like that Bernie isn't ashamed of his beliefs.

For example, when Jeb was asked about common core, he deflected the question saying he supports high standards, rather than just proclaiming he sees nothing wrong with federal education standards and he supports common core. Trump would have been direct about his thoughts when faced with an equivalent question.

Trump supporters might not even like that Trump is a dick to Kelley, called Mexican's rapists (which he's since backed away from-- and during the debate called the Mexican government smarter than us), but they like that he's bold about his thoughts.

We have a true sense of the kind of person Trump is, where as for even Hillary,or Jeb, or Perry, who have been in the public eye for decades, we still don't get a feel for their core personalities.

I'm not a trump supporter, but I think trying to lump Trump into a bucket doesn't really work, he's blazing his own path, paying no attention to "how things have always been" (ironic for someone running on a conservative ticket), and he's changing the status quo.

Regarding Trump's attacks on Kelley, he can make sexist remarks against her, but is this any worse than the other candidates saying they would oppose abortion even if the life of a mother was at stake? or in cases of rape? These are more disgusting view points than being a dick to a woman, who's more than able to defend herself.

8/8/2015 8:52:52 PM

Quote :

"You can't blame the south on trump"

HUR can't even get the simplest things right. Blame A on B or B on A...who the fuck knows that's too complicated.

Quote :

"There is a vast swath through the middle of this country that makes your average southern state look progressive. "

I've spent a lot of time in both, and that's complete fucking bullshit.

Quote :

" If his poll numbers climb higher than their 25% about republicans, this could also reflect trump's broad appeal."

We all know Trump has a ceiling, and whatever he's at now is probably it.

Quote :

"Trump supporters might not even like that Trump...called Mexican's rapists"

Come onnnnnn buddy we both know that's not what he did.

Quote :

"I'm not a trump supporter, but I think trying to lump Trump into a bucket doesn't really work, he's blazing his own path, paying no attention to "how things have always been" (ironic for someone running on a conservative ticket), and he's changing the status quo."

Dude. You need to quit with the constant comma splices and learn how to end a fucking sentence.

8/9/2015 1:17:26 AM

^ dude as my old work mentor told me in my padawan days " know what you don't know".

Go spend time in rural Oklahoma, high plains Montana, Boise Idaho, eastern Oregon and report back to me.

Quote :

" Trump supporters might not even like that Trump is a dick to Kelley, called Mexican's rapists (which he's since backed away from-- and during the debate called the Mexican government smarter than us), but they like that he's bold about his thoughts. We have a true sense of the kind of person Trump is, where as for even Hillary,or Jeb, or Perry, who have been in the public eye for decades, we still don't get a feel for their core personali"

Honestly that's I respect him. I don't agree with a lot of what trump says but he's always direct. None of this PC sensitive pussy shit that synapse and his ilk perpetuate. Heaven forbid we offend someone.

8/9/2015 2:55:10 AM

Forgot..


#AllLivesMatter

8/9/2015 2:56:58 AM

^^he was anything but direct for at least half of that debate. Saying something obnoxious and un-PC while avoiding the question is still avoiding the question

8/9/2015 7:25:06 AM

I think the fact that a blabbering rock star (which is what Trump is at this Point) is killing at GOP debates is a very worrisome indicator of the weakness and vulnerability within this Group of Republicans. I mean, good luck letting Trump pull that shit with Newt or Romney up on stage.

And People seriously think that one of these republicans is going to be able to trade punches with Hilary? Honestly, right now I'd say that Trump has the best shot.

[Edited on August 9, 2015 at 1:36 PM. Reason : s]

8/9/2015 1:33:55 PM

Quote :

"A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll taken after the first GOP presidential debate finds Donald Trump still leading the field with 23%, followed by Ted Cruz at 13%, Ben Carson at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 8%, Marco Rubio at 8%, Jeb Bush at 7%, and Scott Walker at 7%. "

As I said,

Quote :

"These are typically the most ideologically extreme members of the voting bloc, which in the GOP's case, happens to be mostly brash obnoxious racists who hate all levels of government. "

The GOP is fucked lololol

8/9/2015 2:33:12 PM

Quote :

"Honestly, right now I'd say that Trump has the best shot."

No fucking way this guy wins the nomination...but lettuce hope the ride lasts as long as possible (aka: him staying in it through the entire primary season, not winning (obvi), and him running as an independent)

8/9/2015 2:49:26 PM

I'd be scared as fuck if Ted Cruz becomes president. He'll probably require all citizens to have a bible in their residence to ensure we are following good Christian values

8/9/2015 4:38:23 PM

As usual, Krugman spittin' the troof,

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/opinion/paul-krugman-from-trump-on-down-the-republicans-cant-be-serious.html?_r=0

Quote :

"For while it’s true that Mr. Trump is, fundamentally, an absurd figure, so are his rivals. If you pay attention to what any one of them is actually saying, as opposed to how he says it, you discover incoherence and extremism every bit as bad as anything Mr. Trump has to offer. And that’s not an accident: Talking nonsense is what you have to do to get anywhere in today’s Republican Party."

8/9/2015 5:44:14 PM

I hope Trump gets the nomination... and becomes president. That would be endlessly fun to watch.

8/9/2015 9:24:55 PM

^^ Yep, that's generally dead-on.

Also, Paul Krugman is a douchebag.

8/9/2015 10:19:29 PM

Same as it ever was. Run to the right during the primaries, run more towards the center in the general election. You want to be as "conservative" as the next guy or just slightly more but not so far out there that you make yourself unelectable. Trump gives zero shits, and is forcing the rest of the field to adjust their messages in order to garner more attention from the people who vote in primaries.

It's the same in the democratic primaries.

The DNC is doing a smart thing by avoiding debates between Sanders and Clinton, it can only force Clinton to run more to the left and say things that will hurt her during the general election.

Dan Carlin actualy just did a podcast about this yesterday.

http://www.dancarlin.com/common-sense-home-landing-page/

8/9/2015 10:38:50 PM

Can't wait for some fresh polls to come out...

[Edited on August 10, 2015 at 10:55 AM. Reason : ^ Listening now thx]

8/10/2015 10:55:32 AM

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/09/politics/donald-trump-campaign-survival-2016/

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Trump in the next round of polls.

8/10/2015 12:50:55 PM

my understanding about the polls is that Trump only leads in the same kind of polls that Ron Paul used to in 2008 and the type that TWW used to skew way back when. (i.e. vote as much as you want).

More official polls put Jeb up front. With that said I suspect this is nothing more than Trump doing hi sown thing to get some attention.

Quote :

"There is a vast swath through the middle of this country that makes your average southern state look progressive. ... you'd think you were in some backwoods southern town minus... confederate flags."

This. Shit basically the entire state of new hampshire is this way. A solid portion of Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin. Even places such as Colorado.

8/10/2015 2:02:46 PM

Quote :

"my understanding about the polls is that Trump only leads in the same kind of polls that Ron Paul used to in 2008 and the type that TWW used to skew way back when. (i.e. vote as much as you want). More official polls put Jeb up front. "

You could not be any more wrong - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

[Edited on August 10, 2015 at 2:14 PM. Reason : Trump is even neck and neck with Jeb in his own damn state]

8/10/2015 2:12:26 PM

why did Shrike boldface Ben Carson's name?

8/10/2015 4:52:48 PM

First post-debate poll is in, and wow.

Quote :

"Trump leads the Republican field with 32 percent of the vote, up 7 percentage points over last week’s Morning Consult tracking poll. Trump’s nearest GOP rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, clocked in at 11 percent. No other Republican contender reaches double digits – retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson sits in third place at 9 percent, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 6 percent."

http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/

[Edited on August 10, 2015 at 5:04 PM. Reason : ^ Probably just meant Cruz...bold creep]

8/10/2015 5:02:39 PM

Bush was boring as hell in the debate so that doesn't seem like a big surprise. I guess Trump didn't ostracize as many people as some thought.

8/10/2015 5:35:48 PM

^^

Quote :

"But the number of registered voters who say they see Trump unfavorably remains high — 52 percent of all voters say they see him in a negative light. That makes Trump both the most popular candidate within the Republican field and the least popular candidate Republicans could nominate for next year’s general election."

Seems like he's doing a great job splitting the party.

So Republicans have religious conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and Trump conservatives?

I wonder how the groups break down...

8/10/2015 5:43:12 PM

Trump is a Clinton mole.

And he's performing beautifully.

8/10/2015 8:21:36 PM

Rick Perry is done. He stopped paying his campaign staff and is essentially out of cash with donations dried up.

8/11/2015 12:23:24 PM

^If oil prices were $20 per barrel higher, he coulda found atleast a couple of Texas tycoons to shakedown for some pocket change. With oil at epic lows they were all too stingy this time around, didn't help that he was polling so low. Such is the nature of our current political system.

8/11/2015 5:00:46 PM

finally got around to watching the debates, I tried to keep myself from reading much about what the cognoscenti said (although it was harder with the Trump news), my thoughts:

the early debate with Gilmore-Pataki-Jindal-Fiorina-Perry-Santorum-Graham

-I thought the two moderators Bill Hemmer and Martha McCallum did a very good job asking questions. The first line of questions was pointing out flaws in each candidate ("Governor Jindal, your approval ratings in Louisiana are in the 30s...") When a candidate didn't answer the question, they made a remark stating as much.
-Gilmore and Pataki, why the fuck are you running?
-Jindal and Santorum, you have no shot in hell. Jindal may think he can rope a VP nomination being a minority but if that happened I think a Hispanic like Rubio would get picked ahead of him. Santorum I've never cared for at all.
-Perry did a respectable job given the circumstances of being in the B debate
-If I had to pick "a winner" it'd have to be Fiorina who, befitting the fact she once ran Hewlett Packard, came off the most businesslike in performance and speech.
-Graham came off horribly in my opinion. He may also really be here running for president but really wanting the VP nomination, but like Jindal I don't see it happening.

Good: Perry, Fiorina
Same (which if you're in this debate, means your poll numbers sucked and "Same" isn't good enough): Gilmore, Pataki, Santorum
Bad: Jindal, Graham

the main debate with Trump-Carson-Paul-Kasich-Walker-Huckabee-Christie-Rubio-Cruz-Bush

-Once again I thought the moderators did a good job asking cutting questions.
-1st question gets right to the jugular of Trump saying he won't promise to support the Republican nominee and not run as an independent. Haha. I don't support Trump but first, at least he's honest, a seasoned politician would've just lied, which is why Trump has a lot of support at the moment actually is he's honest. Second, it's what he should be doing anyway in my opinion is be an independent candidate.
-2nd question goes to...Dr. Carson? Okay. Well, at least Megyn Kelly was hammering him for screwing up a lot of facts.
-Trump to me is the perfect candidate for social media and internet message boards. He is incredibly light on details of course, but he's a populist so he's acting like any other populist does.
-Christie's 1st question was a major chainsaw job by the moderator on the current state of New Jersey. He did handle it about as well as possible.
-Rubio had some good thoughtful answers. I thought his response on immigration was excellent and wasn't red meat for the believers or relying on cheap soundbites.
-Cruz was nothing but red meat for the believers and relying on cheap soundbites. Very poor level of rhetoric from him. He's pretty much been ostracized from the Republican Caucus in the Senate, I can't see him lasting beyond New Hampshire if he continued on this one-man run.
-Ooh, Christie and Paul attack one another! Entertaining debate on a real issue between two of the lower-level candidates (NSA collection of data: Paul discussed the Bill of Rights, Christie talked about his time in front of the Foreign Intelligence Committee as a U.S. Attorney helping jail terrorists, and his family's personal experience with 9/11).
-Governor John Ellis Bush and Governor Scott Walker were gone for long sections of the debate. And these 3 were the frontrunners. Granted, it's a drawback of having 10 candidates on stage. Bush needs to be more confident talking on issues. He's the establishment pick so he'll have the time to work on it. He was pretty good later on with his education and economy answers so maybe he just needed to find his feet first.
-Cain performed okay when asked questions and had some good rhetoric but was such a non-entity in the debate, it doesn't work in his favor. He may also be really running for vice president.
-Ditto Huckabee being a non-entity. With being the Republican runner-up in 2008, he felt like yesterday's news. I remember his 2008 run and his wit and rhetoric brought him up from being a non-entity Arkansas governor to coming out of nowhere and seriously challenging McCain for the Republican nod. Just wasn't there this time and he relied a lot on packaged soundbites.
-Thought Kasich came off as very professional and presidential, although he needs to talk about more than just his record as Governor of Ohio. He did have the advantage of talking in front of a home crowd in Cleveland.
-Christie did pretty good for what he had. It was good in the sense of propelling himself upward because he was on the lowest end of these 10 in polls entering.
-Hillary Clinton was mentioned a lot. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley? Zero. I think they would all love to run against her.
-Actual good discussion between Christie and Huckabee on entitlement reform talking about Social Security and how the trust funds have been raided and the number of people contributing have declined because the number of people making a wage subject to taxes have declined, and then Huckabee went way off the rails in the end.
-Chris Wallace went on the attack for Trump's business bankruptcies. This is one thing I did read ahead of time before watching it and the business journalist said "everything Trump said was right of how he does nothing different from what any other business does". Wallace talking about Atlantic City is below the belt because almost every entertainment company in Atlantic City has closed in the past few years.
-I agree about being hostile to the Iran deal. Iran right now are funding one side of a civil war in Syria and we want to open it up so they can send small arms there. They are also currently taking part via proxy in a civil war in Yemen, and a prosecutor in Argentina was likely assassinated by the government early this year to prevent him from stating that Iran made a deal with Argentina to keep Iran doing a terrorist act in Buenos Aires quiet. And the agreement itself states in a chapter that any party (Iran or the U.S.) can withdraw from the agreement with short-term notice and no repercussions, so Iran can get what they want in the short-term and at a later point in time invent a reason to withdraw. Why did none of these candidates say this to make their point stronger? (It'd've been easier to say you're against it now in comparison to when the debate took place from the standpoint of bipartisanship. The next Democratic Leader in the Senate Chuck Schumer is also against the Iran bill.)
-Trump did improve in the later stages of the debate.
-Paul has some of the same idiosyncraices his father has. A strength for getting a certain level of support but not for winning the nomination. Part of the most charged energetic part of the debate with Christie and was also subject to suffering a Trump one-liner. Did allright but needs to do better.
-Trump in the end will run in the General Election as an Independent candidate in my opinion. Slate podcast I listened to afterward compared him to Silvio Berlusconi.

Good: Kasich, Rubio, Christie
Same: J.E. Bush, Cain, Paul, Carson
Bad: Cruz, Trump (although for his type candidacy it doesn't matter), Huckabee

[Edited on August 12, 2015 at 11:59 PM. Reason : .]

8/12/2015 11:37:19 PM

Quote :

"Bad...Trump (although for his type candidacy it doesn't matter)"

Perhaps you haven't seen the polls...

Quote :

"Trump in the end will run in the General Election as an Independent candidate in my opinion"

We can only hope!

8/13/2015 12:58:26 AM