I hope to god GE doesn't fail. I'm tired of every fucking company out there on the "brink of failure".

11/18/2008 2:22:17 PM

I don't think GE will fail. I think they're in worse shape than they're letting on, but i think any talk of failure in the article i posted is alarmist.

But should they hit the single digits, i'll be buying the fuck out of them.

It's crazy to think about GE having a market cap < $100B

11/18/2008 2:48:19 PM

i already want to buy them for the long haul as it is. i do think we could see under $12 though.

11/18/2008 2:52:19 PM

I am down $21,000 in GE since their high at $42 last October, and down $3,800 in MS since their high in June of 2007, if I remember correctly. Oh, and down $2,400 with XOM from their high of $96/share.


<--- not a happy camper

11/18/2008 4:35:42 PM

GE's rapidly increasing debt load is very concerning, although they will never go out of business. They are pretty well managed and a household name. I just wouldn't expect much growth over the next 5-10 years if they keep piling on this debt.

^but I wouldn't worry about your XOM. I'm looking at buying oil companies right now myself, Berkshire's big investment in COP last quarter should give you plenty of confidence

11/18/2008 6:13:53 PM

^^maybe you shouldnt have been buying stocks at their 52 week highs

11/18/2008 7:06:11 PM

^ prob purchased before their peaks, a-hole

11/18/2008 7:50:15 PM

^^ yeah, i'm almost certain that was not the case, especially with his GE. I think he means losses since their highs.


I'm planning on DCA-ing my usual amount into my IRA and brokerage accts each month, but also throwing $10k into my brokerage account tomorrow just to start playing the volatility. Each time it drops to high 7s or low 8s, buy $10k worth of S&P or DJIA index, then sell it every time it goes up to mid-to-high 8s.

11/18/2008 8:49:54 PM

HP FTW

11/18/2008 8:54:11 PM

yea that makes sense...I couldnt resist tho

11/18/2008 10:37:43 PM

So how would the recent American Express concerns affect a card holder.

11/19/2008 1:42:59 AM

HIG getting crushed again

11/19/2008 10:56:04 AM

Quote :

"^^maybe you shouldnt have been buying stocks at their 52 week highs"

Never said that -- Duke is right, this are just 'losses' since their highs. I've had GE in varying amounts for almost a decade. Had some gifted to me a long time ago, unfortunately it was gifted when it was essentially at the highest price for GE ever.

[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 11:39 AM. Reason : ]

11/19/2008 11:38:35 AM

Ok, so if I wanted to throw, say, $10k at the market as outlined in my previous post, with the intention of just setting limits and stops to buy/sell every time it reaches certain points, where would you guys put it?

S&P tracker ETF?

maybe BRK.B on this first try, since it just dropped below $3000?

11/19/2008 11:48:26 AM

^

SPY is the equity ETF for the S&P 500
SSO doubles down on the S&P, so you either gain or lose 2x the S&P500

11/19/2008 11:51:04 AM

yeah, familier with SPY. I have a ton of it in my IRA.

I'm wondering what would be the best vehicle for cashing in on the wild volatility? Sounds like SSO might be a good option.

11/19/2008 11:55:20 AM

yeah, the advantage with an ultra short or ultra index is that it magnifies the volatility, giving you much more room for "error"

so with my recent strategy of riding the volatility with these ETFs, i've made some cash but haven't really maximized profits per se. Looking at the peaks and valleys, i've bought and sold somewhere in the middle.

calling short term (or even long term) tops or bottoms is nothing more than gambling, but you can definitely make some money relatively easily.

11/19/2008 12:17:16 PM

<3 the stock market!

11/19/2008 3:51:16 PM

since i'm young & overly optimistic, i would put more cash to work if i had it today

11/19/2008 3:53:51 PM

Total Market Value: $7,594.10
Today's Change: $-1,411.20


awesome.

11/19/2008 4:11:15 PM

doubled down on SSO today, @ 23.30, but i shoulda waited a little longer.

if we continue to drop tomorrow, i'm going to buy buy buy.

11/19/2008 4:59:27 PM

can i buy the whole stock market?

11/19/2008 5:03:13 PM

technically no, but you can buy VTI, which is pretty close.

11/19/2008 5:05:09 PM

nice....i wish i knew more about this stuff. i'm thinking now is a good time to learn. i'm thinking that since the market is so low and possibly falling for the short term (hopefully) that i should dump as much money into the stock market as i can with hopes of it rebounding. is this a correct assumption?

oh and another thing...what do you guys use to buy/sell stocks? i don't see myself being a day trader or even moving stocks around on a monthly basis. what would be the best way for me to purchase stocks. would i be able to so this through my 401k?

[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 5:23 PM. Reason : ..]

11/19/2008 5:17:25 PM

it is one that if incorrect will prove to be disastrous for a lot of people that are doing what you're talking about..

11/19/2008 5:23:10 PM

^^^^^ got a sell order set at any particular price?

I'm thinking about setting a buy order tonight for 450 shares at the opening bell (closed at $22.18), then set a limit order to sell if it reaches, say, $23.50. Am I playing this right (this is not typically my style)? You have similar plans?

11/19/2008 5:47:28 PM

What it closed at isn't what it will open at. It's at 22.14 in after hours, there is a chance you could get it even lower, it's possible it goes up a little bit premarket tomorrow only to see it drop right away. You should probably set a buy limit somewhere in this range if thats what you want, then immediately set a trailing stop if you'd like to not have to sit at your machine all day long. As mentioned, SSO is 2x levered and 5% swings are the new norm. If you get in 5 minutes after the open and the S&P is up a mere .5% early, SSO will be up 1% and if the S&P quickly capitulates down to -3% you'll quickly be staring at a 8% drop in SSO. I've been watching the opens pretty closely for a couple weeks now and the open and close seems to be particularly more volatile than the middle of the day as traders are scared shitless about something crazy happening. Just look at the S&P today, down 1% up 1% in 75 minutes, then a clear trend was established. Go back a few days and they all look pretty similar. Not perfect matches, but close enough that I'd advise staying out of the way for an hour or so.

11/19/2008 6:02:36 PM

Anyone else thinking about buying stock in one of the big 3?

11/19/2008 6:33:56 PM

not I, said the bobby

11/19/2008 6:55:38 PM

^^^ Again, I seem to be rather timely with my observations

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/trader-talk-buying-has-dried-up/

Talks about the volatility in the morning and the afternoon. I forgot to mention before I got out of my SSO position from Monday with a small gain ($250).

11/19/2008 6:55:44 PM

Quote :

"Anyone else thinking about buying stock in one of the big 3?"

I'm considering it. Ford is at $1.26 right now, might not hurt to snag a thousand shares and hope that a bailout package goes through.

Oh, and I'll be buying GE stock very soon.

[Edited on November 19, 2008 at 7:18 PM. Reason : adsfa]

11/19/2008 7:11:46 PM

I might would make a play at Ford, but I'm about to eat 30% of my gamble on GM so you can imagine I'm hands off with the automakers. It looks like after letting Paulson swindle the taxpayers to the tune of $350 billion, congress is getting the picture that Paulson didn't have clue what he was doing and isn't about to fork over more cash to dieing industries. It also looks like they want to pass this buck on to the next congress, so nothing is going to happen until next year. GM is going under $2 in the near future as the time keeps passing with no bailout coming. They've been functionally bankrupt for 10 years and shareholders finally have the picture and are jumping ship.

11/20/2008 7:53:01 AM

On SSO

Pre-Market: 21.51

If you really just want to get it at the open, put in a market order. But again, I'd wait for that first hour of wash to pass. I'm hoping we see a downtrend followed by some more sideways action followed by a rally. I have a real hard time believing the market is just now going to start trending in an expected fashion, that is, steadily down. It weathered 2 weeks of bad news after bad news while riding up and down. Yeah, the trend was overall lower, but we still saw good rallys in there.

11/20/2008 8:36:12 AM

Have a feeling I'm going to be pissed for not pulling the trigger on SSO at 21. Having discipline to wait this first hour out and avoid the greed and fear of missing the bottom.

11/20/2008 9:52:29 AM

I'm about to hammer down on SSO.

11/20/2008 10:22:27 AM

god, i wish i had held on to SRS.

bought at 140 and sold at 160. thought i did pretty well on that.

it's sitting at 240 right now.

11/20/2008 10:24:07 AM

fuck, it bounced back up

my internet here is SOOOOO slow. takes several minutes to refresh a page

11/20/2008 10:32:59 AM

bought 100 more shares at 21.35

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 10:52 AM. Reason : SSO that is]

11/20/2008 10:52:41 AM

I caught 150 shares at 20.53 and now have a trailing stop set.

And it figures as soon as I would post it would fire at 21.72.

It's modest but I'll take it.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 11:04 AM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 11:02:44 AM

wish i had more cash to buy with...

11/20/2008 11:08:31 AM

scared to jump in mid-day like this. anyone else think this minor rally back to black is short-term for the day?

11/20/2008 11:19:03 AM

It looks like the same trend as the past week or so. Down/up or Up/down followed by a steady trend one way or the other (probably down today), then a strong move in the end. Not saying today will be the same, but thats how most of the days have looked for the past several. So, if you want to get in, do it now with a bear etf.

If the downtrend is a lot steeper than the past few days, that is, if were sitting at 4-5% down at 3pmish, I wouldn't be surprised to see it scream back up and I'd have a hard time believing it would rip another 5% off to close the day.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 11:23 AM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 11:22:32 AM

Highly confused here. So I'm checking out the financials on a company I'm considering working for - CGX.

Income statements, balance sheets, and cash flows for the last few years look very solid. Good net income, return on equity and assets, increasing revenue yoy....everything looks great. No scandals or majorly bad announcements. Missed a few quarterly earnings targets, but has still done well. Many of its subsidiaries are expanding rapidly, adding new equipment, employees etc.

Yet, in the past year the stock has dropped over 80% and had a major decline in P/E, which now sits at a pitiful 2.5ish

I can find no rational reason for the major stock price drop, especially in Oct/Nov 2008, with it going from 40 to 10. It was at almost 80 at the start of the year.

What gives? Because the financials look good, I'm not doubting the stability of my (possible) job at this place, and the opportunities look good. What are the investors seeing that I'm not? Not asking you to do my research for me...but what are some possibilities?

I can only think of long-term forecasts not being positive, but my goodness, I know CGX is rapidly expanding its operations....do they see something different than the analysts? Would a relatively high debt/income ratio from expansion be enough knock 80% off a stock?

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 11:27 AM. Reason : a]

11/20/2008 11:27:26 AM

about to brief our mission and go fly, so i won't be around the computer. i set a limit order for 485 shares of SSO at $20.50. We'll see what happens by time I get back (market will be closed by then, anyway).

Quote :

"the stock has dropped over 80%, mainly due to a decline in P/E"

that's a sort of backwards way of thinking about it.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 11:29 AM. Reason : asdfasdf]

11/20/2008 11:27:37 AM

Quote :

"what do you guys use to buy/sell stocks? i don't see myself being a day trader or even moving stocks around on a monthly basis. what would be the best way for me to purchase stocks. would i be able to so this through my 401k?"

11/20/2008 11:28:44 AM

^^Yeah, that's why I changed the wording. Didn't mean to imply causation.

11/20/2008 11:31:06 AM

Quote :

"What gives? Because the financials look good, I'm not doubting the stability of my (possible) job at this place, and the opportunities look good. What are the investors seeing that I'm not? Not asking you to do my research for me...but what are some possibilities? I can only think of long-term forecasts not being positive, but my goodness, I know CGX is rapidly expanding its operations....do they see something different than the analysts? Would a relatively high debt/income ratio from expansion be enough knock 80% off a stock?"

I've only taken a couple of minutes (my connection is sluggish) to glance over some things to see if I could glean anything. The only thing I can think of is investors are tepid on how well they will absorb the 2 acquisitions they made this summer. It also looks like several other competitors in your group are down in similar ways. I wouldn't sweat it, and with such a low P/E, maybe you can get them to offer you an EPP on the stock.

11/20/2008 12:03:03 PM

Quote :

"what do you guys use to buy/sell stocks? i don't see myself being a day trader or even moving stocks around on a monthly basis. what would be the best way for me to purchase stocks. would i be able to so this through my 401k?""

The best for you is probably Scottrade if you want a brokerage account. It's $7 a trade.

There's some website that allows up to 10 free trades a month, but I forget its name...google it.

You might want to look into starting a Roth IRA. It's not accessible money like a brokerage account, but the younger you are, the better an idea it is. You can buy individual stocks, bonds, indexes, mutual funds, etc.

It's a rare occasion that your company's 401(k) allows you to purchase individual stocks.

Oh, and day trading is usually a bad idea. Buy and hold FTW.

Edit: And the less you know about the market, the better off you'd be just buying index funds. Hell, even if you know alot, you'd probably be better off just buying Index funds. (For example: Ticker 'SPY' or 'VFINX'). It's very boring, but over long periods of time... it's proven nearly impossible for most mutual funds to beat the market average.... so why not just buy an index fund and take that market average? For individual stocks... for every Microsoft there's 30 you've never heard of that went bankrupt. Even if you win big on some, you're going to lose on others. With Indexes, You're not going to take the risk of individual stocks.



[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 12:57 PM. Reason : ]

11/20/2008 12:51:04 PM

Quote :

"Had some gifted to me a long time ago, unfortunately it was gifted when it was essentially at the highest price for GE ever. "

Assuming that this statement somehow referred to the taxes payable.

If you sell at a gain from the giftors basis, you have to pay tax on sale price - basis. However, when you sell at lower than you were gifted, you still must use giftors basis, unless that basis is higher than stock price when it was gifted, at THAT point, price of stock at the time of the gift applies as basis for the loss.

Other than that, it doesn't matter what price at time of gift was. For reference, look to IRS Code section 1015

11/20/2008 12:59:51 PM

I knew I should have stuck to my damn guns on GM. I knew they'd get a bailout. I chicken out and sold for a small loss, saw it near 2 this morning and thought "no, I've cleaned my hands of this pure gamble play" only to see the shit go to 3.50.

11/20/2008 1:14:56 PM