10/9/2012 12:09:56 PM

Wow, they found one picture of a woman Rmoney supporter

10/9/2012 1:08:33 PM

There are some gems today....

10/9/2012 1:39:54 PM

10/10/2012 12:26:07 AM

Aaaahahahahaaaghaha

10/11/2012 12:58:08 PM

Cold water and deserts makes ya nuts

10/11/2012 1:29:18 PM

10/12/2012 8:55:30 AM

^3 I'm lazy today. could someone tally that up and see what the electoral count would be?

I just did a quick look. I think its 198 for Obama and 340 for Romney





[Edited on October 12, 2012 at 10:09 AM. Reason : ...]

10/12/2012 10:06:39 AM

lol. did they bother to find a partisan source for that map, or did the just straight make it up?

10/12/2012 10:22:08 AM

Open MS Paint
Open State Outlines.jpg
Bucket tool -> Red
*click
*click
*click *click *click *click *click *click *click *click *click ...

Sir, our internal polling shows this is a done deal
Great! Get it to graphics, we have our 10:00 story!

10/12/2012 10:25:11 AM

I hung out with this chick the other night in Charleston:



Don't watch Fox News, so I had to look her up afterwards when she told me what she did. She was pretty cool until she found out I went to State (she's a UNC grad). She didn't completely dismiss me, but I was a little taken aback in her reaction. You could tell her opinion of me lessened after this information got put out there.

She was also shacking up with some radiologist from Charlotte at the time. That's all I have to contribute to this section.

[Edited on October 12, 2012 at 10:32 AM. Reason : .]

10/12/2012 10:32:26 AM

is that Heather Childers, she used to work for News 14

10/12/2012 2:05:09 PM

Yep, sure is

10/12/2012 2:57:34 PM

Fox



vs. fivethirtyeight.com



fox basically missed NM, VA, PA, WI. MN. IA, OH and VT

10/12/2012 3:53:30 PM

^Take that 2nd map and then give WI and VA to Romney and Obama still wins.

10/12/2012 4:39:47 PM

It's fun watching the narrative change on 538.

As Obama continues his free-fall and they can't hide it, but not surprisingly expose their bias in trying to prop him up.

Regardless, it's a great source of information (at least the numbers they provide). The editorial should be squashed.



Plausible?

Or maybe Obama keeps Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and loses Ohio? Then we have 264/274 (Romney)?

[Edited on October 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM. Reason : -]

10/12/2012 5:32:10 PM

Maybe it's just because I live there, but the "Pennsylvania going red" part is the funniest to me. Somebody missed the news about the voter ID law temporary injunction. We'll still be asked to show ID's, but are not required to, so I'm looking forward to declining.

Unfortunately for Fox, blacks, poors, and students will be voting unharrassed this election.

[Edited on October 15, 2012 at 10:49 AM. Reason : .]

10/15/2012 10:48:20 AM

Quote :

"It's fun watching the narrative change on 538."

Um, the narrative cant change. It's a model that is built long before the election. The only thing that changes are the inputs, which are polls and key economic data.

I get the fools on WRAL not understanding what exactly Nate Silver does but I expect more from a person who I assume has an undergraduate degree and has taken a basic stat course.

I don't understand what you mean about bias? He's a Dem, no doubt, but he simply writes about his model reflects at a given point in time.

[Edited on October 15, 2012 at 11:33 AM. Reason : X]

10/15/2012 11:32:07 AM

Bias = saying anything good about a Democrat, ever, even if that thing is just "he has a good chance of winning."

[Edited on October 15, 2012 at 12:14 PM. Reason : newsbusters.org]

10/15/2012 12:13:19 PM

Not to mention Silver has been vocally bearish about Obama's re-election chances from the gun.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?pagewanted=all

He only really started calling Obama the clear favorite after conventions, when the polls started to tilt heavily in Obama's direction.

[Edited on October 15, 2012 at 12:19 PM. Reason : :]

10/15/2012 12:18:40 PM

Quote :

"G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney’s Rise, Polls Show Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now? Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney"

Yea love that liberal bias where Silver says that Obama's got this wrapped up

10/15/2012 12:34:54 PM

Not only are those titles objective, but they're backed up by statistics.

10/15/2012 2:49:06 PM

MSNBC jumps on the stupid wagon:

10/15/2012 8:11:20 PM

That's really bad.

10/15/2012 8:16:15 PM

damn, he hit the ground before he even had a chance to pull the chute, huh

10/15/2012 9:12:09 PM

I imagine the kinetic energy released from his body upon impacting the Earth at that speed would be many times more powerful than the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated.

That would be going out in style.

[Edited on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 PM. Reason : -]

10/15/2012 9:19:23 PM

but to be traveling that fast he'd have to be pure energy anyway

10/15/2012 9:23:09 PM

10/15/2012 10:24:18 PM

10/15/2012 11:12:56 PM

10/17/2012 10:11:14 AM

10/17/2012 10:27:40 AM

10/18/2012 10:15:07 AM

What state is that?

Or is that a totally meaningless national survey?

10/18/2012 10:55:55 AM

that is gallup national survey of likely voters

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

[Edited on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM. Reason : asdf]

[Edited on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM. Reason : asdf]

10/18/2012 10:57:30 AM

lol yeah ask Al Gore how important national polls are.

10/18/2012 11:09:19 AM

gallup predicted bush would win...just not that gore would get popular vote

10/18/2012 11:27:35 AM

Not the point. This gallup poll is based on national popular vote, which is irrelevant.

Besides, if Gallup's national poll in 2000 said Bush then it was incorrect anyway.

10/18/2012 11:38:44 AM

now 52 to 45

10/18/2012 1:25:20 PM

This makes ZERO sense. There is not a single scenario where Romney is +7 nationally but the state polls in OH, MI, NV, etc have Obama +3 or more.

Unless a region like the South, states which Romney is a lock already for, are Romney +30-40.

10/18/2012 1:32:35 PM

It's not even internally consistent with their other polls. Which shows Obama ticking up in RV and approval. Also, if you look at their cross tabs, Obama is leading everywhere but the south, where Romney is up 15-20 points.

10/18/2012 1:38:50 PM

gallup registered voters poll is 48 - 47 romney

10/18/2012 1:38:51 PM

This is just an honest question, Is 538 credible or not?

10/18/2012 1:44:06 PM

538 is essentially nothing but a poll aggregator that assigns "weights" to various polls based on their historical accuracy. It should be considered no more or less credible than polling in general.

10/18/2012 1:47:35 PM

Quote :

"Ben Stein Tells Incredulous Fox & Friends Hosts Taxes Are Too Damn Low "I hate to say this on Fox, and I hope I'll be allowed to leave here alive, but I don't think there is anyway we can cut spending enough to make a meaningful difference," Stein said. "We going to have to raise taxes on very rich people, people with incomes of like say, 2, 3 million a year and up, and then slowly move it down.""

http://gawker.com/5953010/ben-stein-tells-incredulous-fox--friends-hosts-taxes-are-too-damn-low

10/18/2012 8:52:34 PM

10/19/2012 8:29:27 AM

About the Gallup polls

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

Quote :

"However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case."

[Edited on October 19, 2012 at 8:41 AM. Reason : ]

10/19/2012 8:40:57 AM

Quote :

"538 is essentially nothing but a poll aggregator that assigns "weights" to various polls based on their historical accuracy. It should be considered no more or less credible than polling in general."

It's as credible as the accuracy of its past predictions, e.g., more credible than just about every polling outfit.

Just because it uses polls doesn't mean it can't be better than polls at prediction, just like an astronomer with 50 telescopes can quite easily tell you more than any individual telescope. It's definitely more accurate than RealClearPolitics, which simply averages the polls together without any weights or subtly whatsoever.

[Edited on October 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM. Reason : .]

10/19/2012 10:28:11 AM

this is currently the 3rd headline on foxnews.com:

Quote :

"Was It a 'Fluke' That Newspaper Covered Obama Surrogate Talk Attended by 10 People?"

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/22/obama-surrogate-sandra-fluke-speaks-to-crowd-10-in-nevada/

(originally the headline was something along the lines of "If nobody shows up to hear you, are you worth listening to?")

10/22/2012 4:12:30 PM

^^True, I just wanted to dispel the notion that Nate's just reading tea leaves.

10/22/2012 4:24:42 PM

Fox and Drudge are making a big push recently. Every headline on Foxnews.com right now is critical of Obama in mostly very trivial ways.

[Edited on October 22, 2012 at 4:29 PM. Reason : .]

10/22/2012 4:28:18 PM