Quote :

""Americans buy everything on sale except investments""

Does anyone credible really believe these investments are on sale right now though? The US appears to be a sinking ship. The government is taking all credibility away from the free market and everyone knows there is no worse investor out there than the government.

Everyone is hiding in treasuries so the only choice the fed has is to force people out of them. They do that with inflation to encourage money velocity.

The Dow may make an inflation adjusted move upwards but I don't see any profits to be made in US stocks for the forseeable future.

Everyone keeps talking about low PE ratios.... but that would imply that companies actually have profits...

Isn't it clear that the only companies who will do okay are the ones that the government decides to prop up?

The average American is going to get wiped out in this mess.

[Edited on December 6, 2008 at 1:04 PM. Reason : a]

12/6/2008 1:04:05 PM

Different tune than you had a few months ago

9/5/2008 7:26:50 PM
rallydurham:

Quote :

"Now is the time to start thinking about buying heavily. You should either be making large consumer purchases (cars, electronics, etc) because of the great discounts and low interest rates.... or loading up on stocks that might be primed for 100% return in the next four years. "

Dow is down 23% and the S&P down about 30% since then. Sounds like I should start buying?

12/6/2008 1:44:54 PM

^ I was wrong about the stocks, but correct about the consumer purchasing.

I was a naive that much of the bad news was priced in.

I was ill-informed of all the lies perpetuated on balance sheets and by the American gov't, treasury, and federal reserve.

The bottom would be close to being in if the gov't would stop gumming stuff up. They've now dug us such a hole that a recovery is anything but imminent.

The stock market is forward looking and the gov't is using ultra short term "fixes" (which are debatably even fixes in the short term) at the expense of long term future earnings.

The lies of growth from 2003-2007 have been exposed, what do you suggest will be the catalyst for the turn around?

Clearly we need to embrace the consumer led recession and crunch our debt. Unfortunately, raising short term interest rates is no longer a viable option because our gov't owes short term debt as opposed to long term debt.

If you insist on playing the bottom at least invest it overseas in growth regions where they actually have capital to spend rather than debt to inflate.

12/6/2008 2:34:38 PM

Quote :

"The lies of growth from 2003-2007 have been exposed, what do you suggest will be the catalyst for the turn around? Clearly we need to embrace the consumer led recession and crunch our debt. Unfortunately, raising short term interest rates is no longer a viable option because our gov't owes short term debt as opposed to long term debt. If you insist on playing the bottom at least invest it overseas in growth regions where they actually have capital to spend rather than debt to inflate."

Most of what I have read says we have to suffer the pain and clear the bad debt from the system rather than propping it up as the first measure. Then, in the short term, we have to replace the vanished consumer spending with government spending and greatly expand the governments balance sheet. We worry about the inflation from all the money printing after we avoid the depression. The problem is, it appears Helicopter Ben and Paulson are doing everything in their power to kept their ultra wealthy ultra powerful buddies on Wall Street from becoming just wealthy.

12/6/2008 3:43:01 PM

Quote :

"Does anyone credible "

wait there are credible people in this thread?

12/6/2008 5:05:14 PM

I probably would have sod out of the ERX on Friday had I gotten into it, but it's trading up 10 from where I could have gotten in. FUCK.

Question is, will it keep running throughout the day to make a buy in at the open worth it?

12/8/2008 8:03:51 AM

up 10? it's only at 32.50 right now.. the 52 week low is only 25.60

12/8/2008 8:16:48 AM

whoa futures WAY up... so much for shorting the market

12/8/2008 8:59:14 AM

Well damn I have today off work so I was gonna have time to sit around and find a good trade but days when the market opens up big are not good days to try and do that. Guess Ill have to wait till midday and see how things are looking.

12/8/2008 9:03:03 AM

Quote :

"up 10? it's only at 32.50 right now.. the 52 week low is only 25.60"

You were saying?

Doesn't look like the levels are going to run from here...at least yet. Thinking about some ERY.

[Edited on December 8, 2008 at 9:39 AM. Reason : .]

Rofl, no sooner than I say that, it starts a mini run.

[Edited on December 8, 2008 at 9:42 AM. Reason : .]

12/8/2008 9:32:38 AM

put half my money in GNW thursday... oh boy am i happy

12/8/2008 9:34:32 AM

Quote :

"You were saying?"

damn...nice jump on the graph I'm looking at lol

yeahh, def should have gotten in on that one

12/8/2008 10:08:42 AM

FYI, not sure what you look at for your charts, but Google (and I think yahoo) will display an after market and pre market price for a given security. That's what I was going on. Google "bloomberg futures" if you want to see what the indices are trading at over night and into the open.

12/8/2008 10:16:16 AM

yeah I use Google usually

12/8/2008 10:18:46 AM

not being able to day trade in the past 2 days has lost me over $2000. i'm still up over 50% for the past 5 trading days though

12/8/2008 12:32:47 PM

without having to go back through tons of pages, what are a few good books to read on the stock market.

12/8/2008 12:34:03 PM

so i have a question. if your stocks go down, at what point do you sell and take the loss vs. waiting for it to come back around?

12/8/2008 12:50:53 PM

way too many factors for that. if you're holding long, i'd say 50%, if short, 15-25%

12/8/2008 12:54:52 PM

yeah i figured, just trying to get an idea as i'm pretty new to all this.

12/8/2008 2:06:11 PM

Quote :

"Does anyone credible really believe these investments are on sale right now though? The US appears to be a sinking ship. The government is taking all credibility away from the free market and everyone knows there is no worse investor out there than the government. Everyone is hiding in treasuries so the only choice the fed has is to force people out of them. They do that with inflation to encourage money velocity. The Dow may make an inflation adjusted move upwards but I don't see any profits to be made in US stocks for the forseeable future. Everyone keeps talking about low PE ratios.... but that would imply that companies actually have profits... Isn't it clear that the only companies who will do okay are the ones that the government decides to prop up? The average American is going to get wiped out in this mess."

A few comments to this.

First, it depends what your investment objective is. If you are trying to get "hot stocks" right now, good luck. If you are putting money away for your future lifestyle, now is the time to get in. You can't honestly believe that in 20, 30, 40 years when our generation is ready to retire that the stock market wont have rebounded.

Most Americans will NOT get wiped out if their advisor has stuck to the appropriate allocation (Large Cap, Small Cap, Domestic, International ect) which they have fuduciary responsibility to do.

People are FREAKING out about the economy right now which makes a big part of this recession an emotional one, especially for long term investments.

Don't open your portfolio statements, buy low, and reap the rewards in a few years when the rebound hits. It wont happen in the near future, but it WILL happen

12/8/2008 2:43:49 PM

Wow. Since when does IAU have an option chain associated with it?

12/8/2008 3:42:05 PM

QID, TWM, and SDS might be worth looking at tomorrow. This post is more of a "note to self" than anything.

12/8/2008 4:41:56 PM

^^^

I disagree quite a bit.

I tend to think this is one of the more dangerous times in the history of this country.

We have been living an unsustainable lie for quite some time. The government has been stealing from us and now we are supposed to pay the piper. The problem is people are so stupid in this country they actually want the government to screw it up even further.

We're about 7 years into this bear market and there could easily be another 10-20 years behind it. The standard of living is about to spiral downward in this country.

Just wait until the dollar crashes. That is going to be a severe crisis that will hamper this country beyond belief. You are fooling yourself if you think we're anywhere near a true bottom.

The Dow will shoot up in the next few years no question. As the last few years have taught us that will mean nothing when inflation runs rampant and the gains are only temporary. A few more suckers will get caught buying in the false government fueled rally and then lose it all in other fell swoop while the shorters get rich.

We have no tools left to fight inflation with. We can't raise interest rates, we have too much debt, and we will have fewer creditors now that other countries realize they've been hoodwinked.

The far east is about to start consuming their own goods instead of investing in our fake wealth.

If you must invest in American companies make sure you are investing in those who will do well when the dollar collapses like exporters. Make sure you are picking companies who will have the government's credit card to prop their fledgling businesses up.

Or you could just invest for the coming crash by finding oversold foreign stocks with tremendous dividends. Also make sure your "cash" investments are kept in gold/yuan/yen/etc.

The US treasury bond is practically a junk bond with a 3% 30 year yield. The sheep who are sitting in their "safe haven" are going to see their life savings erased in the dollar crisis. It may come next week, next year, or in five years... who knows... but there is no denying it is near...

12/8/2008 7:35:29 PM

Ouch I was gonna pick up a couple hundred shares of DRYS last week when it dipped below $4 but was waiting for money to clear. Forgot about it and its in the 8's today .

12/9/2008 9:40:27 AM

SENDING OUT AN SRS

SENDING OUT AN SRS

SENDING OUT AN SRS


(i don't even know what that might mean, but it's 'stuck in my head' so to speak)

12/9/2008 9:46:42 AM

SOS?

12/9/2008 9:57:37 AM

^^LOL

12/9/2008 10:05:21 AM

yeah to the tune of that annoying ass song.

but anyway, i picked up 50 shares of SRS at 81.90.

12/9/2008 10:05:45 AM

and drys pushes through 9 dollars guess i should have chased something for a change. Oh well at least the stock I bought instead ADCT is up some, of course I think Id rather have a more than 100% return lol

12/9/2008 10:08:46 AM

fuck I should have chased that shit and bought at 8 this morning. trading 10.34 now

12/9/2008 10:59:21 AM

with the little chump change i had, i just picked up SLW on Jon Najarian's recommendation on Fast Money a few days back

12/9/2008 12:25:13 PM

Quote :

"put half my money in GNW thursday... oh boy am i happy "

I dropped $3K into GNW at $.85/share and was stoked to cash out at $1.27 for a 50% gain in such a short time. I'm kicking myself now that it's at $2.50+ just a few days later

12/9/2008 1:03:58 PM

How long has it taken for a check to show up from Scottrade for you guys?

I pulled money out on the 3rd and it hasn't shown up yet. I don't remember it taking this long. I have a friend that sent me a check on Tuesday of last week (one week ago exactly) for some stuff and she lives in Charlotte and it hasn't shown up yet.

Wondering if this is a Scottrade thing or a new (...moved in in August...so not really new...) apartment thing.


Really starting to get obnoxious, kinda needed the money.

12/9/2008 7:20:31 PM

Ahh gotta love this market, stock beats earnings by 6c and tanks

Oh and DRYS just pushed through 12 so tripled since thursday yeah Im kinda upset about not having funds cleared to buy that now

[Edited on December 10, 2008 at 9:50 AM. Reason : .]

12/10/2008 9:44:13 AM

DRYS still a good buy? 90% off it's 52wk still! i know nothing about the company though.

12/10/2008 10:44:40 AM

Ummmm, hmmmm

12/10/2008 10:54:32 AM

i put a little into DRYS at under $11 just now... lets see how it goes

12/10/2008 11:06:42 AM

dang - POT up a lot from $50 the other day. at $67

12/10/2008 11:31:22 AM

^ had not been following pot, crazy how much it has dropped since mid-june. wow..

12/10/2008 11:45:58 AM

^^^^

I don't know what the underlying investments in FAS and FAZ but, how the fuck does that work?

12/10/2008 12:09:43 PM

Fuck the stock market at this time.

I realize stock is super cheap to buy, but fuck doing that when no one knows how long the recession will last, and no one knows which companies will go out of business.

Too risky for me.

Put my shit in a long term 401k account.

12/10/2008 12:15:18 PM

i hope your 401k has no stocks in it

12/10/2008 12:34:19 PM

It does, but its less than 10% or so of the whole portfolio.

12/10/2008 12:50:38 PM

Quote :

"I don't know what the underlying investments in FAS and FAZ but, how the fuck does that work?"

I've read a teeny amount about these and the prevailing "logic" is if the stock drops 50% one day and moves back up 50% the next day, you're sitting lower than you were 2 days before with the final price being 0 after it's said and done. I've seen some people suggest the ETF will reverse split to get the price back up in a reasonable range that can be traded. I compared a couple others that weren't as heavily skewed, and the 2X funds and their inverse seem to track a little bit better though not perfectly either. All of Direxion's 3x funds are like this.

Actually, it looks like it's the time frame. If you go out one year for SDS/SSO, they are close. If you go out 3 months, they aren't. Direxion has only been going for a month. So I guess all the volatility has made it hard for these fund managers to track like they want to.

12/10/2008 1:24:51 PM

^^ Money market might not be so hot either.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axHG.5Dvl3P4&refer=home

Quote :

"Investors in money-market mutual funds that focus on U.S. Treasuries may lose money for the first time if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next week and yields become too small to cover expenses. Record-low yields on government debt have already led money-market funds to waive fees to keep returns positive. If the Federal Open Markets Committee, as expected, cuts its target rate, some Treasury funds may allow returns to turn negative, said Peter Crane, president of Crane Data LLC, a money-fund research firm in Westborough, Massachusetts. “No one has ever paid above and beyond their interest income to be in a fund,” Crane said. “But if we see another cut, we’ll likely see negative yields.” The U.S. Treasury sold $27 billion of three-month bills on Dec. 8 at a discount rate of 0.005 percent, the lowest since it started auctioning the securities in 1929. The U.S. also sold $30 billion of four-week bills yesterday at zero percent for the first time since it began selling that debt in 2001. Money- market managers could impose a system of incremental debits or charge monthly account fees, Crane said. "

12/10/2008 2:00:34 PM

Quote :

"Fuck the stock market at this time. I realize stock is super cheap to buy, but fuck doing that when no one knows how long the recession will last, and no one knows which companies will go out of business. Too risky for me. Put my shit in a long term 401k account. "

Ok...you realize that your "long term 401k account" is in the stock market right?

It's a good time for qualified dollars (retirement money that can grow tax free). It's not good for non qualified if you're looking to grow your money in the next 5 years.

But saying "F the stock market" and that you're just going to put your money into your 401k makes no sense. 401k=stock market unless your company is just putting it in CD's which guarantees you wont have enough $ to retire

12/11/2008 9:14:04 AM

Quote :

"Ok...you realize that your "long term 401k account" is in the stock market right?"

Uhhh, not necessarily? It's clear you must not touch your 401k. Mine isn't invested in stock at the moment.

12/11/2008 9:24:40 AM

Ok....the whole point of a 401k is so that it grows in the stock market and capital gains taxes don't apply. So having a 401k NOT in the market (unless you have self directed and it's in private equity or debt) defeats it's purpose. Having a qualified account sitting in cash doesn't allow it to grow tax deferred. It doesn't grow at all with the exception of a small interest.

No, you can't touch it without penalty but that doesn't mean it's not in the market.

12/11/2008 9:41:51 AM

Quote :

"Having a qualified account sitting in cash doesn't allow it to grow tax deferred."

I took my 401k out of stocks when the Dow was around 11000. How much growth have I missed out on? 0? Or, I guess I'll allow negative growth if oxymorons are cool.

I put about 30% of it back to work when the Dow went below 8k. The little maneuver turned my -14%ytd figure into about -10% ytd. Wish I would have done more.

[Edited on December 11, 2008 at 9:54 AM. Reason : .]

12/11/2008 9:53:36 AM

but 401k is taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal...

[Edited on December 11, 2008 at 9:54 AM. Reason : .]

12/11/2008 9:54:28 AM