Yeah, and?

12/11/2008 10:01:59 AM

Quote :

"I took my 401k out of stocks when the Dow was around 11000. How much growth have I missed out on? 0? Or, I guess I'll allow negative growth if oxymorons are cool. I put about 30% of it back to work when the Dow went below 8k. The little maneuver turned my -14%ytd figure into about -10% ytd. Wish I would have done more"

Uhhh ok but if you remember your original comment it was "F the stock market, I'm staying out of it" but yet you said you went back in.

You sound confused

12/11/2008 10:44:45 AM

nattrngnabob <> rallydurham

12/11/2008 11:10:36 AM

ha! my bad

12/11/2008 11:12:56 AM

^ no worries

Kinda quiet, did everyone get full of all the volatility? I know after I made some good calls and then got scared and cut early with a small loss that would have been GREAT gains left a bitter taste in my mouth. I'd love to see the markets get out of this band they are in and get to a point where the direction is a little more clear.

12/11/2008 11:39:36 AM

Quote :

"I'd love to see the markets get out of this band they are in and get to a point where the direction is a little more clear."

we may be in this band [Dow 8000-9500 and S&P500 850-990] for a few more months.

to me its all about jobs. once we see the rate of job losses slow, then we can start to measure when we're coming out of this thing.

12/11/2008 11:57:02 AM

so in a year or year and a half

12/11/2008 1:14:47 PM

yeah i've been pretty quiet too after picking up another round of SRS the other day.

gonna sit back and see what happens.

plus work's been busy

12/11/2008 1:23:30 PM

For short term investments, you guys should really be looking into Private Equity and Private Debt.
There is a lot of money to be made in investing in companies that need capital right now (obviously due deligience is recommended to make sure they have a strong business plan).

We have a strong number of our clients in the Private Equity markets and our annual return last year was about 16%. Given what's going on in the economy, that's pretty damn strong.

12/11/2008 1:30:21 PM

I've heard a lot of cases for that. How would a private investor like myself get a piece of corporate bonds?

12/11/2008 1:52:41 PM

become a client of our firms

Seriously though, most of the time there is certain criteria that is goverened by the SEC for private capital. Criteria includes net worth, investable assets, income etc.

Typically it depends on the minimum investment. There are smaller "vanilla" type deals where the minimum investment is $25k and other that start at $100k

Do you know if you have a self directed portion to your 401k? (meaning that you can put those dollars anywhere you want vs. the platform provided by your company). If so, putting those dollars into a shorter term investment (typically private equity/debt are anywhere from 5-10 years) is a great option to build your qualified dollars.

A lot of these deals are also great for non qualified and can often generate monthly/quarterly income.

12/11/2008 2:03:38 PM

Nice, went to lunch and account was up a couple hundred, come back and bottom has fallen out and now Im down almost the same amount.

12/11/2008 3:38:53 PM

bought 110 shares of SRS at $80 yesterday, sold today for $98.

[Edited on December 11, 2008 at 3:47 PM. Reason : /]

12/11/2008 3:43:15 PM

^^^ dont listen to her. she made me lose all my money and now i live in a yellow box in the ghetto.

[Edited on December 11, 2008 at 4:18 PM. Reason : +^]

12/11/2008 4:18:13 PM

on purpose

12/11/2008 4:20:03 PM

Quote :

"become a client of our firms"

I had a hunch you'd say that. I think it's wonderful that there is a mechanism set up such that I can buy stock for really low commission, but not one set up where I can buy corporate bonds without having to pay a middle man hefty fees for...nothing.

Quote :

" Do you know if you have a self directed portion to your 401k? (meaning that you can put those dollars anywhere you want vs. the platform provided by your company). If so, putting those dollars into a shorter term investment (typically private equity/debt are anywhere from 5-10 years) is a great option to build your qualified dollars."

Not that I am aware of.

Anyway, I suppose corporate debt isn't so different than stock, if the company goes bankrupt you lose your investment, or are bonds more preferred than common stock and if the company is forced to liquidate you are at the front of the line to get your cut if there is any available?

12/11/2008 8:28:56 PM

you pay the "middle" man to set up the deal and do the due deligence to protect your investment. It's true that there is still risk but it can be minimized by escrow accounts, first lien positions etc. That being said, I'm sure there are plenty of "deals" out there that will take your dollars to raise capital for their business. But you pay for someone to make sure you get into the "right" deal

12/11/2008 10:00:24 PM

Remember when folks trusted the middle man and the housing market collapsed?
Remember when folks trusted the middle man and the commercial paper market came to a screeching halt?
Remember when folks trusted the middle man and credit default swaps cost tax payers $85 billion just to bail out AIG?

You investment peddler types won't have any credibility with anyone for a long ass time.

12/11/2008 10:57:29 PM

Quote :

"Negotiations in the US Senate to try to secure Republican backing for the $14bn (£9.4bn) car industry bail-out have collapsed, senior Democrats have said."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7778830.stm

12/11/2008 11:42:37 PM

I had a feeling it would play out like that. Hopefully they don't get anything passed tonight and the stock pushed back into the mid 3s. If that happens, I think I'm going to gamble on it again. It should briefly touch 5 or 6 when they pass a bill. I'll have a trailing stop set at 40cents or so and I should make a little change off it.

12/11/2008 11:56:54 PM

stock is pushed back alright, check out premarket for GM and F. Too scary for me

12/12/2008 7:21:22 AM

Quote :

"Remember when folks trusted the middle man and the housing market collapsed? Remember when folks trusted the middle man and the commercial paper market came to a screeching halt? Remember when folks trusted the middle man and credit default swaps cost tax payers $85 billion just to bail out AIG? You investment peddler types won't have any credibility with anyone for a long ass time."

You might want to do your research on my firm before you start throwing stones. We aren't "investment peddlers" in fact, we don't even care if you don't hold your IA's with us. We provide advice and you pay us a retainer for that advice. We make money, when you make money.

I agree that the typical broker set up will diminish, anything that produces a transactional commission will, but that's not how we set ourselves up as the "middle man"

Just saying...

12/12/2008 7:41:05 AM

which company?

12/12/2008 7:50:36 AM

I think we're trading in the 6500 - 9500 range for the forseeable future. Until the dollar cracks and then the dow will shoot up to account for the dollars lost value.

Shorting is way too dangerous right now. Owning US stocks is marginally dangerous. Owning cash is terribly dangerous.

12/12/2008 8:23:08 AM

Man, I wish I was an option's player. Yesterday when I saw how much trouble they were having with GM I thought to myself - great opportunity for a short term shorting of them and probably the energy ETFs. Wake up this morning and sure enough, GM is tanking.

12/12/2008 9:04:19 AM

Whats everyone's take on FAS/FAZ this morning? Grab FAS near a low or ride FAZ on up

Other than the extreme swing potential with the 3x leverage, how does everyone like trading these ETFs versus regular stocks? Commissions, etc?

12/12/2008 9:19:29 AM

well it was fun while it was going up...right?

12/12/2008 10:45:30 AM

^^

one thing to be aware of if you're not trading in a tax advantaged account:

http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/081211/117_id.html?.v=1

12/12/2008 11:40:05 AM

Quote :

"Man, I wish I was an option's player."

Trading options on those 3X ETFs has given me my best month of option premiums in 3 years.

12/12/2008 11:57:21 AM

so why is the stock market up?

12/12/2008 1:01:36 PM

^ that multi-week rally i mentioned may be underway (having started last week).

one thing i'm starting to understand is that nature's cycles are stronger than individual catalysts and anomalies.

12/12/2008 1:04:16 PM

Yeah the market almost seems to be getting sorta back to normal with cycles and what not. How long it will last is anyones guess but Im actually able to start making trades again based on charting and the likes and they are actually doing what I think they will rather than randomly cliffdiving or rocketing up

12/12/2008 1:42:37 PM

Think we're about to see some good buying days since the Senate (mercifully) shitcanned the automakers' bailout?

12/14/2008 6:11:48 PM

The Fed meets for a couple of days and will be talking about what sort of quantitative easing they'll be doing. I'm thinking it might be a good time to get into FAS and maybe GLD.

[Edited on December 14, 2008 at 9:03 PM. Reason : .]

12/14/2008 9:03:26 PM

Quote :

"one thing i'm starting to understand is that nature's cycles are stronger than individual catalysts and anomalies."

Darren Aronofsky made this shit a decade ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ1sZSCz47w&feature=related

12/15/2008 12:10:18 AM

^lol, I totally want to do that

12/15/2008 8:04:37 AM

Quote :

"one thing i'm starting to understand is that nature's cycles are stronger than individual catalysts and anomalies."

Have you read up on the Eliot Wave stuff?

12/15/2008 8:45:26 AM

Quote :

"i put a little into DRYS at under $11 just now... lets see how it goes"

If you held onto it during the dip today may be the day to try and get out about even or positive or gamble and hold in hopes it will push higher. I didnt get into DRYS but did buy into PRGN which is another shipper at 5. May get out today if it pushes above my break even point have to keep an eye on things.

12/15/2008 9:56:49 AM

^^ ya. according to it, the "supertop" was October 2007. i think we retest those tops over the next couple of years, and maybe even crack them -- but the trend from 2012 onwards will be that of net outflows of cash from the overall rate of investment, as baby-boomers start retiring. the last few decades a 12-15 PE ratio was "normal". i think during the net outflow period which will hopefully end by 2025, the new "normal" will be a PE of 5-8.

^ i still got it as well as SLW.

12/15/2008 11:14:59 AM

gonna load up heavily on FAS soon.

12/15/2008 3:18:33 PM

^ I'm with ya.

Quote :

"Whats everyone's take on FAS/FAZ this morning? Grab FAS near a low or ride FAZ on up"

Yeah that was my question on Friday but I took too long second guessing myself first thing to get in at 18.5 and then I didn't want to buy on the rise. I decided to pick some up when it dipped to 21 and held through the weekend.

I'm kicking myself for a couple reasons with this whole trade, but lets hope it shoots up to atleast 25-30 over the next weeks and I'll still be happy

12/15/2008 3:30:31 PM

bought 350 FAS @ 20.01

12/15/2008 3:45:22 PM

Well you're in for a dollar better price and twice my shares, but lets see where this goes!

12/15/2008 3:49:01 PM

I'm just stoked for next Monday after options expire when I'm in the green to sell a ton of covered calls on my 3X funds.

12/15/2008 3:50:15 PM

bought 60 FAS @ 20.30, lets see what happens.

12/15/2008 3:56:20 PM

bought 94 FAS @ 20.30

[Edited on December 15, 2008 at 4:02 PM. Reason : .]

12/15/2008 4:00:22 PM

Well alrighty then, lets all jump on the FAS train

Holding 150 FAS @ 21 from Friday

[Edited on December 15, 2008 at 4:05 PM. Reason : .]

12/15/2008 4:02:50 PM

we're all gonna be really happy or really fucking pissed tomorrow hehe

12/15/2008 4:03:41 PM

fucking double post

[Edited on December 15, 2008 at 4:06 PM. Reason : ]

12/15/2008 4:06:07 PM

hopefully it will be happy!

12/15/2008 4:06:52 PM