I think itll tank tomorrow, buy on rumor, sell on news

2/9/2009 8:10:56 PM

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/rss/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=213401928&cid=RSSfeed_eetimes_semiRSS

CSCO with $4 billion debt offering. Speculation a takeover target is out there. Question is, who?

2/10/2009 7:27:28 AM

Hilarious. We let big banks lever up and destroy themselves only to bail em out with taxpayer money, yet when I try and get an options trading account where I have the necessary net worth and brokerage account size but don't quite have the years of experience I get denied on the level of option trading I'd like. Simply amazing.

2/10/2009 8:12:15 AM

and down it goes...

2/10/2009 9:39:43 AM

Really?

2/10/2009 9:49:09 AM

anybody see the cover of the Dec/Jan issue of "Fast Company"?

It has John Chambers on the front saying they have $26B in cash.

2/10/2009 10:01:42 AM

^^Really. FAS : 10.17 -0.96 (-8.63%)

2/10/2009 10:22:38 AM

Bought 100 shares of BAC at 6.80. It's down to 6.15.

BAH.

2/10/2009 10:25:17 AM

Yeah, when I posted that it was down 2%, which is nothing for FAS.

Quote :

" Bought 100 shares of BAC at 6.80. It's down to 6.15. BAH."

Picking any single financial in this market is like lighting a 1" fuse and wondering if you can get away before it blows. And if you really want exposure to BAC, why not buy March 7s? Or, while you have it you can sell a March 6 covered call and lower your basis down to the $5 range. I assume your sentiment is indeed bullish by taking the long position.

2/10/2009 10:35:44 AM

Perhaps Cisco is getting ready to acquire a large company. Let the rumors begin... NetApp's market cap is just over $5B...

From
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123397121561359335.html
NetApp seems ripe for the picking. Aside from IBM, HP and Dell (DELL)
an EMC reseller, other potential acquirers include software giant
Oracle (ORCL), which has sustained robust growth via acquisition, and
networking gear behemoth Cisco Systems (CSCO), which plans to enter the
server market. Storage analyst Brian Marshall of Broadpoint AmTech
Research speculates that Net-App would be appealing to HP, IBM and
Cisco.

The rumors always fly about Cisco and EMC, but Netapp makes more sense, especially from a business integration standpoint.

2/10/2009 10:44:31 AM

saw that this morning

[Edited on February 10, 2009 at 10:53 AM. Reason : looooks interesting]

2/10/2009 10:53:46 AM

thar she goes

2/10/2009 11:14:18 AM

Ok, what just happened? Is TurboTaxTimmie giving a speech?

2/10/2009 11:14:49 AM

called it, all of the good news possible was built in, any slightly disappointing news was going to send financials falling, i still think they have a ways to fall today, maybe fas ending down around 15%

2/10/2009 11:16:49 AM

^^ yes, talking now

2/10/2009 11:17:29 AM

my gut is telling me to buy this dip...

2/10/2009 11:25:18 AM

Yeah, me too, except with DDM (or whatever the proshares DJIA tracker is) instead of SSO. Seems like the S&P hasn't dropped to match the Dow.

Unfortunately, the funds from my last SSO sale haven't settled, so it'll be at least tomorrow before I can buy.

2/10/2009 11:30:49 AM

ya - i only had a little bit of settled cash to buy in my IRA so i picked up some QLD.

i might go on margin in my dad's account to pick up some other stuff..

2/10/2009 11:32:49 AM

FAS: 9.08 -2.05 (-18.42%)

2/10/2009 11:35:58 AM

Yeah, maybe I should go ahead and bite the bullet...set up my Scottrade acct with margin trading. I've always sworn off it, as it's not very useful (and still risky) for a strictly LTBH investor. While I still do just as much LTBH as I always have, becoming somewhat of a trader has opened my eyes to margin trading. No more waiting for funds to settle, and I can take a big chunk of cash out of my trading account and put it back into my money market.

2/10/2009 11:36:58 AM

maybe, but i'm certainly not selling the virtues of margin trading.

i've found myself doing too many speculative things/borderline gambling to sing its praises.

2/10/2009 11:48:43 AM

tmmercer, I don't believe in "calling" it on a day to day basis, but i gotta give credit where credit is due...that's a spot on call for today, well done my friend

2/10/2009 12:20:49 PM

^^ what part of what we're doing here isn't speculative/borderline gambling to begin with?


I mean, I certainly don't look at it the same way as my investing in companies for the long haul. I guess it's not gambling in the sense that, by doing it with broad market indices, the worst thing that's likely to happen is me having to sit on it for a while before selling and getting my money back.

[Edited on February 10, 2009 at 12:40 PM. Reason : ^ the reasons it interests me have nothing to do with being any riskier than i am with cash trades]

2/10/2009 12:39:42 PM

ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS

DO THE OPPOSITE

OF WHAT I THINK IS A GOOD IDEA

2/10/2009 12:42:29 PM

financials may be a little over sold in the short term (week) but i still think they are a terrible play for the medium term, (3 months - year)..

[Edited on February 10, 2009 at 3:29 PM. Reason : ,]

2/10/2009 3:29:26 PM

back into FAS at 8.33

damn, jumped 40 cents in 2 minutes, holla

2/11/2009 9:37:45 AM

When did you get it at 8.33?

2/11/2009 9:43:23 AM

about 2 minutes before I posted

2/11/2009 9:47:05 AM

DRYS? Big drop and now a lot of volume has come in around the 4.80 level and it is being supported here. Looks like a buy at this point to me.

Hope you sold. Never a good idea to play with these things in the first 1hr of the market after big move days.

[Edited on February 11, 2009 at 10:33 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on February 11, 2009 at 10:37 AM. Reason : .]

2/11/2009 10:24:44 AM

rimm is looking like a good buy to me for a long term play

2/11/2009 10:42:12 AM

Drys up .20 already. Currently kicking myself.

2/11/2009 10:51:37 AM

wow, DRYS dropped that much? glad i took the money and ran @ $15

2/11/2009 10:57:57 AM

100 point swings aint shit these days...

2/11/2009 11:18:39 AM

into DDM (2x leveraged ProShares Dow ETF) at $25.80 for 538 shares.

2/11/2009 11:43:57 AM

bought some more QLD with small amount of newly settled cash

btw, i have some legacy RIMM that is getting creamed

2/11/2009 1:52:26 PM

Wow this is shaping up for an absolute spectacular collapse.

They are now admitting the entire banking system nearly failed in September.

Look out below, 8,000 will be a distant memory soon.

2/12/2009 7:11:37 AM

300 of FAS at 8.16

2/12/2009 9:37:40 AM

^^Dont buy into that fear mongering. Rep. Paul Kanjorski is an idiot. He says "If they had not done that their estimation was that by two o'clock that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the United States"

O rly?

"Assets of money market mutual funds have increased significantly since 2004, rising about 82 percent to a level of $3.5 trillion by July 2008. This increase primarily reflected very significant inflows to institutional money market funds, and to a lesser extent, inflows to retail money market funds in 2007."

http://www.ici.org/home/faqs_money_funds.html

So according to this guy, more money than existed in money market accounts was going to be withdrawn. I can see how this was cause the system to collapse

Also where were they going to go with it? Were they going to stuff it under their mattress, open up foreign banking accounts? Pshhh...this is total bull and this senator bought it...

Now saying that, the dow could retest its November lows.

[Edited on February 12, 2009 at 9:46 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on February 12, 2009 at 9:48 AM. Reason : .]

2/12/2009 9:45:22 AM

Also sold Feb 7.5 covered call at 1.25. Hopefully we don't retest Nov 20s today. However, given my luck in the past few months, it is starting to look likely.



[Edited on February 12, 2009 at 10:21 AM. Reason : .]

2/12/2009 9:53:50 AM

loaded up FAS at 7.66

2/12/2009 1:44:01 PM

went all in at 7.40

just sold at 8.20



I AM NOW AT UP 4% IN ALL ACCOUNTS COMBINED!!!!! FUCK THE ECONOMY!

[Edited on February 12, 2009 at 3:46 PM. Reason : ]

[Edited on February 12, 2009 at 3:46 PM. Reason : ]

2/12/2009 3:42:24 PM

sold a little early, but well played. i picked up some at 7.65, gotta wait to tomorrow to get out as i dont have funds that have settled, hopefully it doesnt drop.

2/12/2009 3:58:28 PM

i was too excited to be UP. i don't even care lol. i'll play it again when funds clear . i still think we can go WAY lower.

2/12/2009 4:07:34 PM

I'm down with options, inspired by Mr. Joshua - big thanks for the patience in these threads and educating me - fuck these wild swing and trying to get on the right side of it. My cost basis is 6.91 so I had plenty more downside and I was still making profit. Sure, my upside is certainly limited now, but there is still the chance I don't get called away and can turn around and still sell for a profit.

2/12/2009 4:16:04 PM

bought faz at 41 and sold at 51 had to wait for the funds i bought the faz with to settle so that i could make the money heh but 24% increase is always nice!

2/12/2009 4:50:20 PM

Looking at the s&p we are nearing the end of this descending wedge, next week will likely be when we learn which way we are heading for the next few months. The bears tried really really hard yesterday to send it lower and failed as the end of the day rally brought us right back to the bottom of the wedge, likely we will have some upside today and possibly monday. Middle of next week its gonna have to break the wedge and at this point you have to lean to the bullish side simply because every single time the bears have tried to force it under they have failed. If we break up then its likely we have seen the bottom for any forseeable future. If it finally breaks down and holds it then look out below.

2/13/2009 8:14:58 AM

I think barring a shock, then obviously the next rhythm should be to the upside as we are in between earnings of the big players. However, I just can't put outside the realm of possibility that there isn't a major story that will leak that will rattle the markets to the tune of 1000 points in the dow, smashing the Nov 20s, and so on. The banks if they are forced to mark to market will be insolvent. The feds are in the process of stress testing right now. They'll find out what we already know and it's literally a loose loose scenario, why?

1) They find out the banks are under stress and report the news as such, markets shit a brick
2) They find "something" out and don't report anything, market assumes the worst and shits a brick


They have been playing this high wire tiptoeing act for months now, trying to figure out how they can keep from tipping their hand and revealing to the world that these institutions are insolvent if FASB 157 is applied. This is why it is dragging out and taking forever and why Geithner looks like a complete idiot with no plan...because ALL PLANS have undesirable consequences for everyone involved. How long would it take you to decide between firing squad, lethal injection, hanging, or something else if you didn't have a deadline for which to make that decision?

[Edited on February 13, 2009 at 12:28 PM. Reason : .]

2/13/2009 12:28:07 PM

guys, i'm not much of a short term trader but the FAS/FAZ play is definitely interesting for some quick turns. what are you thinking of FAS some time in the next few hours?

2/13/2009 12:57:17 PM

In at 8.00 out at 8.42 on fas

2/13/2009 1:59:42 PM

what the heck is fas/faz? that is all you guys talk about

2/14/2009 12:13:21 PM