Last Pew poll from Sept 12-16 had Obama +8. New Pew poll has Romney +4.

[Edited on October 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM. Reason : +4]

10/8/2012 4:51:53 PM

One of my links (cant remember which one) mentioned how post-debate poll swing has historically not been a good indicator of outcome.

10/8/2012 5:07:46 PM

Debates and polling anomalies surrounding debates are simply one of my personal interests during each cycle.

I don't want any of my questions to appear I'm fishing for a specific answer.

I like the discussion we've had so far, except maybe minus Shrike, as I consider him to be a little bit unrealistic and annoying.

That's fine of course, and I'm sure he's a big fan of 538, but as of right now I'm most interested in the truly wishy-washy voter and the assumption their going to vote for...

...let's just say the person on stage that looks like they actually want to be there? If independents are all truly just (ashamed) Republicans in disguise, are you saying that you aren't concerned about these two groups both uniting behind Romney in the next month?

The truly undecided/independent (fake Republicans) vote that is? Still inconsequential? Would you say this mindset might be what is fueling the belief that Obama is just running out the clock? "Taking a knee" you might say, during the debates? To make sure he doesn't say something that truly sinks him, in other words, just tow the line for one more month?

10/8/2012 5:13:26 PM

Incumbent's are generally more conservative and often "lose" debates, I think its on account of it being much harder for them to pin down their opponent than vice versa.

10/8/2012 5:31:18 PM

they do the debates way too late

10/8/2012 5:54:05 PM

Quote :

"One of my links (cant remember which one) mentioned how post-debate poll swing has historically not been a good indicator of outcome."

Was it Rachel Maddow's show? She was saying polls don't indicate anything.

10/8/2012 6:00:38 PM

that's where you want to go with this? Fox News and conservatives just got done talking about how polls don't matter and are outdated. Instead of acknowledging that it is understood by people on both sides that debates don't really mean much, you are going to go with only saying polls don't matter because its Rachel Maddow and Obama is losing? Really? Just days after it was a Republican story?

On the topic of debate performance and results, historically debates don't indicate election results. There is nothing partisan about that really.

Here is New York Times
The Season of Debates

Quote :

"Do debates really matter? The experts say that, barring total disaster, the answer is actually no. The committed are already committed. (In some cases, really, really committed. Witness the large proportion of Ohio Republicans who told a pollster that they thought Mitt Romney was the person most responsible for killing Osama bin Laden.)"

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/opinion/collins-the-season-of-debates.html?_r=0

[Edited on October 8, 2012 at 6:12 PM. Reason : .]

10/8/2012 6:07:00 PM

Even if the national polls are tightening as the election gets closer, the swing state polling averages are still leaning one direction.

Real Clear Politics polling average has it as a 251 v 181 race with 106 up for grabs. Rasmussen, even with their conservative polling models, also have Romney solid only at 181. That's more ground to have to pick up no matter how you slice it.

If you give all the currently leaning Obama states to him from the RCP polling average, and all the currently leaning Romney states to him, and all the tie states to Romney too, that comes out to 303 v 235 (not far off from 538's projection). Move over anything that is only under 3 points in favor of Obama to Romney and that brings it to 281 v 257.

Even if the race tightens as the election gets close, it's going to have to tighten in the swing states specifically not just popular vote, and not only tighten, but start to flip if it's going to make a difference.

[Edited on October 8, 2012 at 6:39 PM. Reason : .]

10/8/2012 6:36:50 PM

^ yeah, but there's a 20-30% chance of that happening and Romney winning. That's not exactly a tiny amount.

The "Now-cast" was at 98% for Obama a few days ago (pretty much guaranteed win), now it's at 88%. Even though is is great news for Obama, a 1/10 chance of Romney winning is also not insignificant.

Williy0 is helping Obama out by telling his supporters not to get complacent, because he's right about that.

That's one of the double-edged swords about polling... if people "feel" their guy has a lock, they might just skip voting (it's an urge i know i fight...). OTOH, if people feel their guy is hopeless, they might also skip voting for that reason. But the better Romney does in the debates, the less hopeless his people are.

Yes, historically the debates haven't mattered, but lots of things have been different this season than history-- if you keep up with 538, the conventions were different this time around in terms of polling responses.

10/8/2012 6:46:03 PM

Quote :

"Even if the national polls are tightening as the election gets closer, the swing state polling averages are still leaning one direction."

Fair enough. And Gallup and Rasmussen were both positive for Obama today. Of course, all I hear about on CNN today is about that Pew poll..

This Pew poll is fucking weird. Obama had women voters by 18 points last poll and now it's even? What on earth is going on..

[Edited on October 8, 2012 at 7:02 PM. Reason : x]

10/8/2012 7:01:27 PM

I don't know why either, but during the debate that "positive/negative emotional response line graph thing for men/women?"

When Romney spoke it was pegged at like max positive many times for women.

Again, who knows, maybe they have the hots for him? Or maybe Romney was the only one to actually use the word women.

10/8/2012 7:21:42 PM

Sorry for the DP, but lol CNN.

10/8/2012 7:37:49 PM

Looks like Romney wants to start another war in the middle east that we can't pay for. I know that this is what his party wants him to say, but I don't think it will play well with undecideds. I would think that most Americans are tired of these wars.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/08/14279951-in-foreign-policy-speech-romney-will-encourage-military-spending-syria-intervention?lite

10/8/2012 7:59:22 PM

After being Mister Moderate in the debate he has to say some things to keep those bloodthirsty Christians in order.

10/8/2012 8:29:22 PM

Syrian intervention is a risky strategy, i think his pendulum is swinging too far with that.

10/8/2012 9:22:43 PM

is Obama trying to lose? this Big Bird shit is fucking retarded

10/9/2012 1:51:47 PM

Mitt Romney Foreign Policy Team: 17 of 24 Advisors Are Bush Neocons

Quote :

" one of Romney's top surrogates on the campaign trail is John Bolton, who served as President George W. Bush's ambassador to the United Nations. Bolton embodies the reckless neoconservative thinking that was largely responsible for getting us into Iraq under false pretenses. Today, he openly roots for diplomacy with Iran to fail and is all-too-eager to send our men and women in uniform into war. Last year, for instance, Bolton said that, "It would be in our interest to overthrow this regime in Syria.""

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/12/the_romney_cheney_doctrine?page=full

I remember seeing Bolton on Fox News from time to time. He sounds just as bloodthirsty as Cheney and Rumsfeld.

[Edited on October 9, 2012 at 2:17 PM. Reason : .]

10/9/2012 2:17:43 PM

Wow, I didn't think anyone took Bolton seriously.

He is completely nuts.

That just made me dislike Romney.

^ I actually don't perceive Cheney and Rumsfeld as bloodthirsty. Just very paranoid product of the Cold War Era.

Bolton on the other hand i think is completely batshit insane and IS bloodthirsty.

[Edited on October 9, 2012 at 5:10 PM. Reason : ]

10/9/2012 5:08:07 PM

How on earth did one debate that Romney won (even if it was by basically completely backtracking on his entire campaign to that point) completely turn this race on its head.

The polling numbers have insanely shifted towards Romney. We are talking about 8-12 point swings in a week in national and swing state polls. I've never seen anything like that.

10/9/2012 6:28:32 PM

I've never been a "blah media blah" guy, but I do think they've wanted a closer race and have done just a bit to change the narrative

I can't ever remember the media taking the "that debate was an anhialation" angle quite like this before

usually they'll cite polls, but after this one they were flat out calling it a beatdown without referencing the polls

10/9/2012 6:43:13 PM

10/9/2012 6:55:59 PM

Because I love posting Frontline:

The Choice 2012
A journey into the places, people, and decisive moments that made the men who are competing for the presidency.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/choice-2012/#a

10/9/2012 9:04:16 PM

Liberals are flinging poo at Romney signs in Virginia.

10/9/2012 9:12:23 PM

^^^^

Based on the change in polls, the debates were pretty devastating for Obama. The convention bounce and 47% were eliminated, and it's not obvious that the polls have bottomed out yet.

A change of this much is unprecedented in recent years (since 2002 since i've been able to vote...).

The only upside is that if the polls can swing one way so quickly, they can theoretically swing the other way just as quickly.

My take is that since the 47% video, people were embarrassed to say they're Romney supporters, so the "workplace" dialog was very anti-Romney. But since the debate, they don't feel like they have to be embarrassed anymore. And, now that Romney has finally disavowed those comments, that damage Obama can do by bringing it up is fairly minimal.

Romney still has an uphill battle with the electoral votes, but he's in a pretty good spot. And if it turns out Obama wins the electoral college, but loses the popular votes, it would give the GOP even more justification to stonewall Obama like they've been doing the past few years.

10/9/2012 11:56:20 PM

What a strange, strange week. Romney "wins big" at the debate and his polling soars. At the same time his polling soars, Obama's approval rating improves a sizable bit. So more people approve of the job Obama is doing but less will vote for him? US citizens are so confusing...

Also, Romney is cool with abortion now after not being cool with it since 2007, before which he was cool with it.

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 9:02 AM. Reason : X]

10/10/2012 9:02:27 AM

As soon as you realize and accept that the debates are just another reality TV show, it will make sense

10/10/2012 9:08:33 AM

^^It's not that complicated.

Run as an insane Christo-fascist to get nominated, revert to moderate to win election. Bank on insane Christo-fascist base to not vote for the black guy.

10/10/2012 9:23:45 AM

I'll be honest, if I paid no attention this last year I'd vote for this week's version of Mitt Romney. The moderate, close loopholes for the rich, lower taxes for the middle class, not push religious social mores and confident Romney is one I like.

The problem is that I have been paying attention and this version of Romney is one that hasn't existed since he left the capital in Boston. And after six years it's suddenly back? I'm not really buying it.

10/10/2012 10:54:07 AM

So Romney leads Obama by about 2% in the national polls, but this election will probably be decided by Florida and Ohio... again... where Obama has a strong lead. Miss anything?

10/10/2012 11:00:05 AM

I wouldn't say Obama has a large lead in Ohio, buy he does still lead for sure.

And Romney is more like between a 1/2 and 1 point ahead nationally from what I can see.

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 11:02 AM. Reason : X]

10/10/2012 11:02:27 AM

^, ^^^



Also,

Quote :

" This Pew poll is fucking weird. Obama had women voters by 18 points last poll and now it's even? What on earth is going on.."

...but the government scientist, Dr. Yamak, has prove it ees size of squirrel.

10/10/2012 11:04:26 AM

Yeah, let's not waste time analyzing poll internals and try to "unskew" them like the crazy right wing bloggers. Also liberals need to stop freaking out at the current poll results, keep a little perspective. I thought this was an apt quote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/conservatives-liberals-and-polls/2012/10/09/ddeef47e-124c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

Quote :

"“When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you,” he said. “When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.”"

The bottom line here is that the basic fundamentals of this race haven't changed. This is literally Romney's high water mark in the campaign and he still has no realistic path to 270. The problem is the media does a horrible job explaining margin of error. When CNN shows a poll with Obama leading by 4 in Ohio, with a MOE of +/- 3.5%, what that really means is Obama has a 91% chance of winning the state, according to that poll. Obama still has an overwhelming advantage in this election, it's just not as overwhelming as it looked last week.

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 11:51 AM. Reason : :]

10/10/2012 11:48:53 AM

^^^^

Obama has a marginal but steady lead in Ohio, Romney has taken a small lead in Florida.

10/10/2012 11:50:26 AM

^^ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is really the authority on Electoral College calculus, and they have Obama at 71% odds of winning the general election. Prior to the debate, they had Obama at 85% odds. The fundamentals have changed, they just haven't swung to the point where they are in Romney's favor. Yet.

Obama is (obviously) still the favorite, but Romney has a puncher's chance of winning.

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 1:32 PM. Reason : 2]

10/10/2012 1:29:08 PM

More positive economic news this morning with the lowest new jobless claims since Jan 2008... but more Romney gains in polls. RCP has Romney +1.3.

Crazy that this whole election was said to be about the economy and yet it's really about who is the best actor when the lights are on.

10/11/2012 8:36:18 AM

The latest Rasmussen pole has Romney ahead of Obama for "who do you trust more with the economy". That's the first time I've seen Romney ahead for that topic.

10/11/2012 9:15:29 AM

I've come to the realization that I'm more fascinated with the election process and the data than the actual election itself. What changes and why over time, who votes for who generally, etc

The swing state numbers are VERY strong for Obama today.

10/11/2012 9:25:15 AM

Quote :

"The latest Rasmussen pole has Romney ahead of Obama for "who do you trust more with the economy". That's the first time I've seen Romney ahead for that topic."

Have you not been paying attention? I'm pretty sure the economy has, for the longest time, been the ONLY issue people trust Romney more on.


Also, unless Romney nails all of the other debates, I'm going to predict he'll slip back to where he was before the first one. He didn't sink so low because of bad luck, or any particular circumstances, he did it because he's a not-too-great candidate who generates reams of gaffes and relatability-fails. The surge after the debate is impressive, but he is still the exact same Mitt Romney he was before them.

[Edited on October 11, 2012 at 2:12 PM. Reason : .]

10/11/2012 2:11:01 PM

On the contrary, the gaffe-prone, hard-right caricature that the media created is exactly why Romney is seeing such a surge right now. After months of the media shitting on him, expectations were so low going into the debate that Romney was able to win handily simply by appearing competent. But more than that, he has now shattered the narrative that he is out-of-touch and Bush-like.

Like I said 2 days ago, Romney now has a puncher's chance of winning this thing. Obama is still favored in the important swing states, but you never know what might happen after tonight and 2 more Presidential debates.

10/11/2012 2:40:49 PM

Remember how in 2004 Kerry came out and smoked Bush in the first debate, got a significant bounce in the national polls, which he rode to a decisive election day victory? Yeah, neither do I.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/obama-may-be-over-performing-in-the-swing-states/2012/10/11/4abcf480-13cd-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem

tldr; As long as Obama maintains his WI/IA/OH firewall, nothing else matters.

[Edited on October 11, 2012 at 3:01 PM. Reason : :]

10/11/2012 2:53:55 PM

Obama's been dropping pretty hard in Ohio.

If romney got that + one other biggish state, he'd win.

Although this is somewhat unprecedented, 538 is calling for a stabilization nearly the same as past post-debate wins, which is a +3-4 points for Romney. If that ends up being the case, Obama still would have a safe cushion at that point.

10/11/2012 3:06:13 PM

Quote :

"On the contrary, the gaffe-prone, hard-right caricature that the media created is exactly why Romney is seeing such a surge right now. After months of the media shitting on him, expectations were so low going into the debate that Romney was able to win handily simply by appearing competent."

I disagree that it's a caricature, but agree that exposing it really did set the bar impossibly low.

10/11/2012 3:09:37 PM

Quote :

"Obama's been dropping pretty hard in Ohio."

Based on what? The most recent polls still show him with anywhere from a 4-6 point lead, including a 63-37 lead with people who have already voted.

Some important ground game facts,

https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

Quote :

"• Democrats’ party registration leads Republicans’ in nearly every battleground state. • Democrats have out-registered Republicans in every battleground state for the past three months. • Latino registration has greatly exceeded registration among non-Latino whites, and Latinos’ registration preferences have increasingly favored Democrats since 2008. • Most new registrants are younger than 30. In fact, more than four in five new registrants are women, young people and minorities. And this is where we stand today in early voting in some of the most important states: • Iowa: We lead in vote-by-mail ballots cast, in-person early voting, total voting and total ballots requested. We also lead by a wider margin than we did at this point in 2008 in both ballots requested and ballots cast. • Ohio: We lead in ballots requested and ballots cast and are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain."

[Edited on October 11, 2012 at 3:22 PM. Reason : :]

10/11/2012 3:14:37 PM

^
THis is the best i can find on short notice:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

But it has the gist... Obama's plummeted, the polls have stabilized for now, but Obama "only" has a very volatile ~67% chance of winning Ohio now. It wouldn't take much to flip that, the way thing shave been going.

10/11/2012 3:34:43 PM

Quote :

"I disagree that it's a caricature, but agree that exposing it really did set the bar impossibly low."

Romney isn't nearly as gaffe-prone as he's been made out to be. And I don't think you can seriously argue that Romney is a hard-right candidate. His move to the right was a very transparent courtship of the base during primary season. Every candidate does it, some more than others. But his track record shows him as a moderate.

The biggest thing you can nail Romney on (and it is a big thing) is his constant flip-flopping. Obama needs to really make it a point to go after Romney's constantly-shifting positions, not with just a quip or 2, but with a significant portion of his opening and/or closing remarks devoted to it.

10/11/2012 3:41:28 PM

Agreed totally, but I have to say that you don't know what his actual positions are. He was moderate in Massachussettes, because he had to be to get elected. He's hard-right nationally, because that's what he has to be to get elected. In all cases, he demonstrates that his positions are a function of political expediency. So I think it's safe to say he will be hard right as long as he relies on the votes of the hard right, no?

[Edited on October 11, 2012 at 5:04 PM. Reason : .]

10/11/2012 5:03:59 PM

If Romney wins how long will it be before war with Iran begins?

10/11/2012 8:26:02 PM

Obama should have hit him harder on all of this. He may have just lost the election with his debate performance.

10/11/2012 8:30:54 PM

I don't think he has lost yet, but I wanted to see Romney versus Obama at his best.

10/11/2012 8:43:58 PM

^^^Never.

We will be too busy at war with Russia.

10/11/2012 10:59:17 PM