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BoobsR_gr8
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ok gimme a sec

2/5/2006 12:57:05 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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Quote :
"Hand #11534714-4041 at Providence (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 05/Feb/06 07:28:20

Vroomster is at seat 0 with $43.40.
eezie is at seat 1 with $23.15.
Shoshana is at seat 2 with $25.05.
Darn Small is at seat 3 with $22.90.
RVoegele is at seat 4 with $18.70.
graaier is at seat 5 with $10.
noempati is at seat 6 with $28.
Preem is at seat 7 with $53.35.
Squash2005 is at seat 8 with $11.30.
getoutofhere is at seat 9 with $38.30 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 3.

RVoegele posts the small blind of $.10.
graaier posts the big blind of $.25.

Vroomster: -- --
eezie: -- --
Shoshana: -- --
Darn Small: -- --
RVoegele: Kc Ah
graaier: -- --
noempati: -- --
Preem: -- --
Squash2005: -- --

Pre-flop:

noempati folds. Preem folds. Squash2005 folds.
Vroomster folds. eezie folds. Shoshana raises to
$.85. Darn Small folds. RVoegele calls. graaier
folds.

Flop (board: 3c Qh 6h):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $.80. RVoegele
calls.

Turn (board: 3c Qh 6h 3h):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $1.50. RVoegele
calls.

River (board: 3c Qh 6h 3h 6c):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $.25. RVoegele
calls.



Showdown:

Shoshana shows As 8s.
Shoshana has As 3c 6h 3h 6c: two pair, sixes and threes.
RVoegele shows Kc Ah.
RVoegele has Ah 3c 6h 3h 6c: two pair, sixes and threes.


Hand #11534714-4041 Summary:

$.35 is raked from a pot of $7.05.
RVoegele wins $3.35 of a $6.70 pot with two pair, sixes and threes.
Shoshana wins $3.35 of a $6.70 pot with two pair, sixes and threes.
----------------------------------------------------------------


Do I raise preflop?? Am I too weak with AK preflop, I was out of position....
Please help.

"



First of all, the call preflop is bad. You are out of position. You MUST reraise here because you dont want to be first to act in a big pot after the flop with AK when it misses.

Secondly, if he calls the reraise pf, you have to either check raise or follow through with a raise on the flop, which actually had good texture(meaning its highly likely he didnt hit it) for the type of hands the opponent may have.

At some point you HAVE to make some kind of move to try to win this. check calling with a blank AK is horrible

[Edited on February 5, 2006 at 1:24 PM. Reason : .]

2/5/2006 1:00:36 PM

FeebleMinded
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Come on Rob. I have no idea how long you've been playing but even the most novice player knows that a call with AK is about the weakest play you can make. AK is favored or a virtual coinflip against everything but AA and KK, so you know that odds are, if you reraise, you are reraising into a hand that you have at LEAST a 50% chance of winning. So to just call and call down for a split is pretty bad.

2/5/2006 7:48:41 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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there has come a reason in my life(non related to money or poker) that i will never play or talk about poker.

accordingly, the game that i was going to have when i come back is off


good luck in the future





[Edited on February 6, 2006 at 1:23 AM. Reason : .]

2/6/2006 1:04:58 AM

pilgrimshoes
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wtf is this?

some religious clusterfuck?

[Edited on February 6, 2006 at 1:49 AM. Reason : e]

2/6/2006 1:48:48 AM

BoobsR_gr8
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haha not religion,

i'll talk to you about it tomorrow ben


i gotta go to sleep b.c i gotta be at work at 7:30

2/6/2006 1:50:41 AM

DrOldSchool
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Do I even want to know?

2/6/2006 2:55:38 AM

NoidRoid
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what an odd thing to say

2/6/2006 4:07:01 AM

typhicane
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Jim, I have been getting my ass kicked lately, just scared to throw some money in the pot. I dropped down a level or 2 to work on my game... I have some holes I need to fix.

I do not think I have won a 50-50 in weeks. I know this is not true, but that is what it feels like.

2/6/2006 7:17:54 AM

pilgrimshoes
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got a few minutes, so may as well take a look here

Quote :
"
Hand #11534714-4041 at Providence (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 05/Feb/06 07:28:20

Vroomster is at seat 0 with $43.40.
eezie is at seat 1 with $23.15.
Shoshana is at seat 2 with $25.05.
Darn Small is at seat 3 with $22.90.
RVoegele is at seat 4 with $18.70.
graaier is at seat 5 with $10.
noempati is at seat 6 with $28.
Preem is at seat 7 with $53.35.
Squash2005 is at seat 8 with $11.30.
getoutofhere is at seat 9 with $38.30 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 3.

RVoegele posts the small blind of $.10.
graaier posts the big blind of $.25.

Vroomster: -- --
eezie: -- --
Shoshana: -- --
Darn Small: -- --
RVoegele: Kc Ah
graaier: -- --
noempati: -- --
Preem: -- --
Squash2005: -- --
"


Ok, we got AKo in the SB. I feel as if playing AKo OOP in nl is probably my biggest weakness, but lets give it a stab here.

Quote :
"
Pre-flop:

noempati folds. Preem folds. Squash2005 folds.
Vroomster folds. eezie folds. Shoshana raises to
$.85. Darn Small folds. RVoegele calls. graaier
folds.
"


So the CO seat raises to ~3xBB, The worst thing to do here is just flat call. You are giving he BB pretty damn good odds to call with any two cards. with there being 0.85+0.85+0.25= 1.95 in the pot already and him only having to call 0.60 more, hes getting pretty good odds here. expect a call here if he has suited middling cards, maybe a 0-1 gapper offsuit. or hell its 25nl, any two cards could work. I found this little ditty from playing loads of short handed limit poker. If you are comming in from the SB, just flat calling is pretty bad, unless the raise is enough to push out the bb anyways. Plus, with AKo, I really want to take early control of the hand here. Lets look who raised us. Without a strong read that hes a major rock, the CO is a great spot to steal an unraised pot with many combinations of cards. So lets say if he is a thinking player, the range id riase with here is anything from Ax+suited, A8+off, 67+suited (no gappers), JTo, QTo, KTo, KQo, 66-AA, or any two suited broadway cards.... its fukcing huge. Wtih AK here you are a major favorite. Poke in a reriase to about 1.75 or so, spice it up a bit. This way if he goes bananas and pushes, we can let it go and not play for our whole stack. No sense in taking what is maybe a coinflip in a cash game. Here we also get into a situation that arises more in the lower games than in something like 200nl or sometihng. 99.9% of people if you reriase them here are pushing with QQ,KK,AA, and some even AK. This range we are wayyyy behind. We can let it go. Sometimes people will get tricky and just call here, but at a 25nl level, ive found it to be basically non-existant. then the texture of the flop will help out more. So, bump it up strong and take control of the hand from the get-go.

Quote :
"
Flop (board: 3c Qh 6h):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $.80. RVoegele
calls.
"


OK, so we whiffed here. Two options are viable. check/fold (hi captain weak-tightie), check-raise (may be a bit table image dependant, if he sees you as nice and tight, i fyou reriase him pre, then check raise the flop, he could basically peg you for either three queens, AA or KK, and he probably missed this flop. This also makes you look scared of the flush draw, which brings up other interesting side points. overall, i dont really like this play, but it is a viable option with which to mix up your play. Dont get overly ridiculous however and try and checkraise all in. If he pegs top pair, he's calling your ridiculous overbet), or we could bet out and retain control of the hand. Remember that unless he was paired preflop, he sonly like 35% to pair on the flop, just like you. id like to throw a bet out about 65% of th epot size. This doesnt commit too much of your stack, but is a bit intimidating. See how he reacts. Not to be results oriented, but he would have folded here, unelss you ahve him pegged as a nice ultra lag.

Quote :
"
Turn (board: 3c Qh 6h 3h):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $1.50. RVoegele
calls.
"


heart draw got there, kinda looks like you may have been playing that, or a slow payed set that just filled up. check raise here maybe? if it doesnt take it down its a semi-bluff at worst. Or Donk bet this like crazy.

I like to make moves liek this all the time. It works a good bit of times on scary boards here.

If he just woke up to a flush he was betting on the draw, hes comming back at you. peace. but whne you do, take some time with it, make it look like you at least had a pair. ahaha


Quote :
"

River (board: 3c Qh 6h 3h 6c):

RVoegele checks. Shoshana bets $.25. RVoegele
calls.
"


holy shatty card. again, bet out or cehck raise. his bet of 0.25 here either says "i want a bit of action and want to show down quads" or, Fucking balls that card sucked.

which is more likely.

Quote :
"
Showdown:

Shoshana shows As 8s.
Shoshana has As 3c 6h 3h 6c: two pair, sixes and threes.
RVoegele shows Kc Ah.
RVoegele has Ah 3c 6h 3h 6c: two pair, sixes and threes.


Hand #11534714-4041 Summary:

$.35 is raked from a pot of $7.05.
RVoegele wins $3.35 of a $6.70 pot with two pair, sixes and threes.
Shoshana wins $3.35 of a $6.70 pot with two pair, sixes and threes.
----------------------------------------------------------------


Do I raise preflop?? Am I too weak with AK preflop, I was out of position....
Please help.

"


The worst thing to become is results oriented with a single hand. Think about the way that lots of hands went down in a session, or over a weeks time. Try not a think, damn i cant win a coinflip. If this is the case, you are either committing too much to it without improving, or just playing scared. playing scared isnt TAG at all!!!1 its weak/tight and not good.

I think im kind of developing an overly aggro feel to my no limit game, which im not sure if its a good thing or not at all.....

meh...

hope this helps.

[Edited on February 6, 2006 at 11:11 AM. Reason : ]]

2/6/2006 11:10:28 AM

NoidRoid
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I dont reraise preflop with AK unless I know someone is a total maniac, and then I go all in hoping he will call me whilst being dominated(and this does happen against the right opponent).

The other 99% of the time though, I will either cold call or fold. I would call this particular bet out of position since it's only ~3xBB, however I've come to start folding AKo out of position with a 4+BB PFR. It's just a personal preference, in a solid full ring NL game you're not going to get paid off with this hand when you hit TPTK, though there is a very good chance you've been dominated the entire hand and you're still behind.

Anyways, that $.80 bet on the flop is total garbage, either raise or fold there considering how involved you want to get with nothing(A high). If I was feeling frisky, I'd raise him up to like $2.80 then bet the pot on the turn if he called. I'll only make that play about 20% of the time though, more often than not I'll just lay it down and go to the next hand. You are not going to be making any money on this hand, and yeah calling is real bad there unless you had AhKh.

2/6/2006 4:58:49 PM

typhicane
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Yeah, looking back on it, I was just weak. Being OOP and with a raise behind me, I just wanted to call and flop a A/K and slowball him a lil. After the flop, my play digressed so badly, I feel guilty for still having money in my account...

2/6/2006 6:46:32 PM

pilgrimshoes
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take ^^'s advice over mine, hes 10xs the cash game player i am.

time to go blow a few hundred, realize how bad i really have become, and get a few stories to tell later.

1/2

2/6/2006 6:55:45 PM

linoleum24
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here is one way to play AKs...

PokerStars Game #3886556445: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2006/02/06 - 20:44:10 (ET)
Table 'Nemesis IV' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Kaz One ($4.95 in chips)
Seat 2: amler ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 3: snobrd30 ($5.75 in chips)
Seat 4: worm2424 ($4 in chips)
Seat 5: The Hish 24 ($6.15 in chips)
Seat 6: Adicto ($2.65 in chips)
Adicto: posts small blind $0.05
Kaz One: posts big blind $0.10
worm2424: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Hish 24 [Ac Kc]
amler: calls $0.10
snobrd30: folds
worm2424: checks
The Hish 24: raises $1 to $1.10
Adicto: raises $1.55 to $2.65 and is all-in
The Hish 24 said, "lets go"
Kaz One: calls $2.55
amler: folds
worm2424: folds
The Hish 24: calls $1.55
*** FLOP *** [2s 5h 2d]
Kaz One: bets $2.30 and is all-in
The Hish 24: calls $2.30
*** TURN *** [2s 5h 2d] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [2s 5h 2d Td] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kaz One: shows [Ks Qs] (a pair of Deuces)
The Hish 24: shows [Ac Kc] (a pair of Deuces - Ace kicker)
The Hish 24 collected $4.40 from side pot
Adicto: mucks hand
The Hish 24 collected $7.75 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $12.75 Main pot $7.75. Side pot $4.40. | Rake $0.60
Board [2s 5h 2d Td 3h]
Seat 1: Kaz One (big blind) showed [Ks Qs] and lost with a pair of Deuces
Seat 2: amler folded before Flop
Seat 3: snobrd30 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: worm2424 folded before Flop
Seat 5: The Hish 24 (button) showed [Ac Kc] and won ($12.15) with a pair of Deuces
Seat 6: Adicto (small blind) mucked [Ad 9c]

2/6/2006 8:45:50 PM

steviewonder
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goddammit i hate bodog. sat tournament, 15 left, I am BB and above avg chips. Dealt A4o. Only one caller, SB folds.

flop: A47 rainbow

caller min bets, I raise the pot(1/3 my stack) I am fairly certain my hand is the best. AA or 77, and he will raise preflop, right? Maybe he had 44, but unlikely since I have a four.

So, he takes the full time to decide, and goes allin. He has played fairly conservative(folded a nut flush when a somewhat obvious full house couldve been there), but I still feel I have the best hand.

Whats your take, by the way I started with about 12k chips, he had 10k.

2/6/2006 9:48:45 PM

FeebleMinded
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I hate stupid people playing poker. Actually, I don't hate them playing I just despise them winning. I cannot fathom how any person who isn't nearly retarded can look at two exposed aces in seven card stud and call with no pair and a draw requiring 2 or more cards to hit, especially when they are heads up. Yet it happens all the time, more often than not I would say. I really think if I hear another douchebag say "It's just poker" after he calls someones enourmous/continuous raises with shit and hits a miracle river or seventh street card, then I will fucking go ballistic.

I would much rather lose $500 to a good player who made a really good play than lose $50 to some idiot who keeps calling and catching.

2/6/2006 10:24:57 PM

FeebleMinded
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Oh yeah, and those people who say "vnh" after a play such as the one described above, also complete retards.

2/6/2006 10:52:31 PM

sNuwPack
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^conditioning my friend, if a sucker pays 1:2 on an 11:1 draw and hits, why not encourage him to make the play again, after all isn't that EXACTLY the situation you want to be in? If you'll pay $50 to win $100 against me chasing a gutshot, I'll smile everytime (mostly) and congradulate you on making your "very nice hand"

it's like petting a dog, reward them for showing a behavior that you would like them to commit again

at least that's how i TRY to look at the situation

2/7/2006 1:08:35 AM

pilgrimshoes
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was faced with one of the toughest decisions ive ever had at a poker table tonight.

Even after talking to a few others including NoidRoid I still dont know what should have been done. Im just not on the level necessary or have the understanding of the game enough to know what should have been done.

Im going to post the situation here, let it linger for a day or two till Feeble, snuW, and you others get a feel for what happened and chime in with your play, and your justification. Ill explain what I did and my reads, up untill the final decision is made.

1/2 no limit, im stuck a few buyins already, but had just doubled up with a set to an overpair. so im sittting with about $450, and not really wanting to put much at risk right now. This may be a problem as we shall see.

SB/BB post. player ive played with about 3 times before bumps it up to 12 utg. This is about his standard raise, and could really man about anything. He seems to have some strange facial tick, that makes him smile and seem really jumpy eyed alot. So reading him is fucking utterly bonkers. I mean, when the turn card peels off when you are with him HU, and he kinda shakes his head and smiles, i dont know if thats good, bad, or completely involuntary. its really kinda bizarre, kinda like he may be on something at the same itme. its really weird.

For this hand he is also stuck about 3 buy ins, but has worked a stack back up to a few hundred.

I call in late MP with AhKh, button tags along. This guy is pretty wide open also, and Im not really concerned with him. I figure him for something creative like a J9suited or something equally worthless.

Something just kinda screamed that the utg had a big hand, and it seemed like a big pair.

so the flop comes

Qh Jh 2c

pretty nice flop it seems.

UTG already had chips ready and busts out a bet of $30.

I think about it for a minute, and think about maybe trying to make a free card play or represent a flopped set. So i raise $50 more, beofre the button even acts UTG shits the bed and immediately goes all in for $193 more. button of course folds.

So the pot has 3+3*12+2*30+2*50+193=392 in it, with me to call 193 more. So basically im getting 2:1 on this draw. For some reason, I didnt really realize this at the time, the quickness of his bet just fucking startled me and i kinda lost track of how much had gone in where.

I try and formulate what the fuck is going on here.

He knows me to have shown a large range of cards, but also realizes that I am capable of putting in that raise with something like KTo to a heart draw or maybe even bottom set or something like that. The flop obviously didnt scare him at all, did it help him out? or was he rollin hard the whole way?

I guess the only way for me to go about forumating a decision here is to think though how much chance I give him to be holding specific hands given the action thus far, and try and figure out where i am in my head. Unfortunately, I have grown accustomed to being able to put this in to twodimes or some other stat program and helping me out. OBvV this isnt available to me in the heat of this cash game.

So after I assume a range of hands for him to have, how can I figure live outs and decide on a call or fold?

is the ace live? are either of my cards live for a pair draw? did he set up? start out with aces?




Im going to write the rest of this post in a word doc, and post it later after some feedback.

dont just give me a "fold, dumbass" back it up with some reasoning and logic.

lets try and expand our poker capabilities and live vicariuosly though me.





[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 2:28 AM. Reason : as a side note, myt able image tonight was probably pretty garbage.]

2/7/2006 2:25:27 AM

JonTurner
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heh, I'm calling there everytime Ben, but that's just me

2/7/2006 4:23:35 AM

tomloes
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I hate to say it , but I call too. My gut puts him on cowboys.

2/7/2006 11:15:28 AM

HaLo
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you're getting two to one on a nut flush draw (with one card giving you the absolute nuts) and 3 10s to the straight which probably beat any of his current holdings, the only way you are close to -EV with a call is if he flopped a set and even then its only by a bit if he boats up or hits quads. Since he's allin, you don't have to call anymore bets on the turn and river so its pretty much even to a slight bit +EV since he probably would have slowed down with a flopped set like that.

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 12:58 PM. Reason : quads]

2/7/2006 12:57:25 PM

sNuwPack
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I believe your first mistake was raising the flop. It appears this guy really likes his hand, i believe the very least thing he could have is wired kings, slightly less likely, but still possible is a set of ladies or jacks. I also don't think you can count on your ace being an out, although it may be a pleasant surprise if it is.

I generally view the free card play as being much more viable in a limit game than no limit. It makes sense in limit bc you raise the cheap street and avoid a big bet on the turn. In no limit however, there's really no difference in putting in two bets on the flop or one on the flop and one on the turn (i mean in actuality there is a small difference, but this is more than negated in my opinion by the possibility of shutting yourself out of the hand completely if you are reraised, which in this spot you actually are) so I would just pay the 30 and try to hit the nuts cheaply against a guy who seems itching to put his stack in regardless of what turns.

Anyway, once he goes all in it's a pretty straight forward pot odds calculation. I would ignore the possibility of him filling up and beating your flush if he already has a set, bc i believe this is much less likely than kings or aces. So the way I see it you have 9 outs (flush) plus 3 outs (straight).

according to my quick math this makes you better than a 2:3 underdog to hit your hand. (there is even a 25% chance or so (probably more, but I like to lowball it a little bit so I don't get burned) that your ace is live giving you 3 more outs)

You are getting more than 2:1, so I believe this is a call; I really don't like putting in this much money on a draw,(unless it's omaha and i've got a big one) but as you've pointed out I believe the pot odds justify it. I still maintain that it would've been much better to just pay the 30 and not get fancy with the reraise since this guy was probably going all the way with this hand anyway.

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:01 PM. Reason : hfel]

2/7/2006 12:57:43 PM

HaLo
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agree completely with the argument AGAINST the flop reraise.

2/7/2006 12:59:49 PM

pilgrimshoes
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how do you find it unlikely that he has a set, thats what I would do with a set in his spot

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:03 PM. Reason : e]

later this afternoon i guess ill finish up the post with some theory ive been thinking about that i dont know if it is legit, or mostly a fabrication of my mind that needs a long break from poker after a pretty rough last 6 weeks.


Also explaining the remaining thought process that i went though before the completion of the action

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:05 PM. Reason : e]

2/7/2006 1:02:50 PM

pilgrimshoes
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btw, i think not raising this flop is way way way weak and basically puts our hand face up on the table. im trying to build a pot that he cant get away from if I do hit.

unfortunately, I like to make that move with the intention of knowing how ill react to his any possible action. however, due to his speed into the pot, my initial plans changed drastically. read dependant i guess

Also, expect a nice LAG to drop the $30 bet on an unimproved middling pair here also, if he happens to be on that, the hand is over.

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:09 PM. Reason : e]



the post comming involves sacrificing/paying EV for meta-game-ish reasons in a cash game. tournament situations are completely differen than this situation. In a tournament, I beat him into the pot. Cash game, its a bit different. (i think)

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:18 PM. Reason : again]

2/7/2006 1:08:37 PM

State409c
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Your posts read like you are the most confidence lacking guy that just happens to know poker on the planet.

That is, you are overthinking everything and not going enough on the feel of the game.

2/7/2006 1:20:01 PM

sNuwPack
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^dude I'd put a significant chunk of change on the fact that he would own your ass in any extended period of heads up play or any other form of evaluating poker performance

I guess it's not necessarily unlikely that he has a set, but the way I see it is this. Even if he does have a set, that takes at most 1 out away from you on the turn, and at most two outs away on the river. Now consider that it is 30% likely that he has kings (30 for aces 30 for kings 20 for queens and 20 for jacks is an easy estimate, making the sets less since there are less cards for him to have those hands) making your ace live, giving you 3 more outs on turn and river, round and say 30% of 3 outs is approximately 1 out, giving you an additional out on turn and river, and you are sacrificing very little precision by assuming he will not fill up to beat your made flush, i also would've reraised preflop with position, but I figured you were trying a variation play

[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:50 PM. Reason : dasf]

2/7/2006 1:44:22 PM

State409c
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Just calling it how I see it.

2/7/2006 1:45:59 PM

sNuwPack
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^me too

pilgrim when you refer to meta-game are you talking about setting him up for later? laying down 2:1 odds when you are better than 2:3 seems like an expensive ad campaign, but idk, i'm interested to hear what you have to say about it

if anything i like calling better for meta-game bc it shows that when you raise you are interested in showing the hand down


[Edited on February 7, 2006 at 1:54 PM. Reason : ldsk]

2/7/2006 1:50:32 PM

ncsuGALxcPaC
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I own pilgrimshoes

2/7/2006 2:12:50 PM

steviewonder
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dont you love it when this happens? 3 handed in a sng, definitely a playable hand from the sb, but I folded because the bb has been a loose cannon. I never get action on quads, but this woulda knocked one guy out and given me a huge advantage, it woulda been over.



oh well, ended up in 2nd

2/7/2006 4:57:48 PM

FeebleMinded
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I always ask myself, what do I think he has. I'm sure you do too, but let's, just for argument's sake, look at the possibilities.

You have the second best possible nut-drawing hand (obviously if you were holding K 10 of hearts, you'd have an extra 4 outs). So at minimum here, you have 12 outs, with those being 9 hearts and the remaining 3 10's. That's JUST if you're drawing to the nuts. If your A and K are outs too, then that bumps you up to 18 outs.

Let's look at what he may be holding from a purely mathematic point of view, and what your odds are (they may vary slightly depending on what suit his cards are, but for the sake of argument, let's just say he has no hearts in his hand.) The percentages are YOUR odds of winning.

AA: 46%
KK: 55%
QQ: 33%
JJ: 34%
1010: 57%
99-33: 64%
22: 34%
AK: 100%
AQ: 55%
KQ: 54%
QJ: 45%
K10: 81%
109: 77%
Bluff with nothing (ie 76ish): 90ish%

OK that's just the math. So you are at LEAST a coinflip to win this hand unless he is holding a set, in which case you're about 2:1. So for a pot of $392, you have to call $193. You have $92 invested in it (which really shouldn't matter, but I'm just throwing that out there.) So like you said, 2.03:1 on your money on a draw that, at the very very least, you are 1/3 to hit. There is no other play to make here than call. Even if you don't hit, it's the right play. If I told you I would go outside and flip a coin, and every time it landed on heads I'd pay you $50 but every time it landed on tails you owe me $45, would you play? You'd be a fool not to.

OK, that was my purely mathematical analysis, let's throw a little poker into it. It seems to be a consensus that this guy either has AA, KK, QQ, or JJ. While these are very possible or probable hands, I wouldn't rule out anything. If this guy has half a brain, he knows, after playing with you 3 times, you reraise preflop with QQ or JJ, so he most likely KNOWS you don't have QQ or JJ. So if I'm him, I have you on either a draw or one of 3 hands: AQ, QJ, or 22. Knowing this information, and knowing you are a very odds-oriented player, one that is intelligent enough to know when to fold a set or top two pair, I would most likely assume that I could get you off any of these hands by representing QQ or JJ. So I might consider betting it like that, even if my hand wasn't that strong.

My gut intuition is that he has something weaker than what everyone is giving him credit for, maybe AQ or KQ. But like we said before, the right play, no matter what, is to call.

2/7/2006 5:03:16 PM

FeebleMinded
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Haha yeah speaking of quads, I lost to them yesterday in a 7-stud sit-n-go. It was kind of humorous (not really) because I had KK in the hole, and K22 showing. The guy, who had been playing like an idiot the whole tournament, kept reraising me so each of the first 5 streets were capped. After 6th street, he was showing 38J8, so I told him, "You better have quads." So the river comes and he is all-in, of course he had one 8 in the hole and hit his final 8 on 7th street. He then claimed he knew I had the boat and also knew the last 8 was coming.

Seriously, I didn't know there were that many retarded people in the world.

2/7/2006 5:12:15 PM

sNuwPack
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ignore my last comment about him having a set only rubbing you of 1 or two outs, i obviously didn't consider him filling up with a non-heart, duh....

trying to study and post leads to me looking silly

2/7/2006 5:15:22 PM

David0603
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Straight flush draw with those odds, you have to call...

2/7/2006 10:07:29 PM

HaLo
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i saw some absolutely rediculous shit tonight. i'm so pissed i have to go to bed so i don't lose my bankroll. $100 down on some rediculous cards. AA beat by A5sooooooooooooooted by the fucking flush. 46off calls a 8xbb reraise and ends up hitting the 6 on the river. I'm so fucking pissed right now.

2/8/2006 12:40:36 AM

Erios
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pilgrimshoes, with 2-1 against the set with those pot odds, it's a borderline call. Against anything else, it's well worth your money to try and outdraw him. I'm probably calling and living with whatever comes...


The only reason I'd consider folding would be his reaction. I dunno about the rest of you guys, but when a noob can't wait to put his chips in the middle, it's almost always b/c they hit a monster. Bluffing typically takes a little courage (except for the best in the game, in which case it's their profession), so noobs need a little time to draw up the courage. This guy saw action and dove in for it. No doubt he's got a nice hand, so I'm 70% certain he's got a set.

That being said, I call anyway almost every time.

2/8/2006 6:37:47 PM

sNuwPack
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i disagree about the set, pilgrim said he bet the flop instantly, improvement calls for consideration, which ultimately calls for a pause, regardless of how slight. If pilgrim's description is true then he didn't improve on the flop, i wish he'd post the rest of the hand though

2/9/2006 1:41:25 AM

pilgrimshoes
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ok, its comming tommorow


ive had 2 tests today, and wnet to the bar at noon and just got home


soon.


btw

Quote :
"The only reason I'd consider folding would be his reaction. I dunno about the rest of you guys, but when a noob can't wait to put his chips in the middle, it's almost always b/c they hit a monster. Bluffing typically takes a little courage (except for the best in the game, in which case it's their profession), so noobs need a little time to draw up the courage. This guy saw action and dove in for it. No doubt he's got a nice hand, so I'm 70% certain he's got a set.
"



thsi guy is far from a "noob"

the only noobs at this game are way to wealthy to have this few hundred bother them, this guy is what i would consider a very tricky, and good player.

[Edited on February 9, 2006 at 1:48 AM. Reason : e]

2/9/2006 1:46:55 AM

JonTurner
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3rd in the Party $150 limit tourney tonight for $9k... my first final table in any limit tourney... EVER

2/9/2006 3:57:17 AM

jackleg
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yo if anyones in raleigh with net teller and wants to make a little cash hit me up.

[Edited on February 9, 2006 at 12:39 PM. Reason : ESP if you have this NT atm card i hear about]

2/9/2006 12:39:24 PM

Douche Bag
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flopped it

***** Hand History for Game 3524888736 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 09, 21:02:18 EDT 2006
Table Table 65669 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: DDragon1 ( $76.35 )
Seat 2: skinnydave ( $31.65 )
Seat 3: RAZINNETS ( $13.10 )
Seat 4: icis7 ( $25 )
Seat 5: TheINXSguy ( $19.65 )
Seat 6: rifraf7 ( $61.36 )
Seat 7: jimbobo222 ( $22.05 )
Seat 9: tim73 ( $32.35 )
Seat 10: LLBird ( $16.77 )
Seat 8: jbplotki ( $19.94 )
RAZINNETS posts small blind [$0.10].
icis7 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jbplotki [ 6c 7d ]
TheINXSguy folds.
rifraf7 folds.
jimbobo222 folds.
jbplotki raises [$0.54].
tim73 calls [$0.54].
LLBird folds.
>You have options at Table 65164 Table!.
DDragon1 calls [$0.54].
skinnydave calls [$0.54].
RAZINNETS folds.
icis7 calls [$0.29].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, 5c, 3h ]
icis7 checks.
jbplotki bets [$1.40].
>You have options at Table 65164 Table!.
tim73 folds.
DDragon1 calls [$1.40].
skinnydave folds.
icis7 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ]
jbplotki bets [$2.50].
DDragon1 raises [$5].
jbplotki is all-In [$15.50]
DDragon1 calls [$13].
** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
DDragon1 shows [ Ac, 2h ] a straight, ace to five.
jbplotki shows [ 6c, 7d ] a straight, three to seven.
jbplotki wins $39.55 from the main pot with a straight, three to seven.

2/9/2006 9:05:33 PM

steviewonder
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so you are one of the assholes that raises $1.23, and othe penny amounts, haha

2/9/2006 9:07:41 PM

dzags18
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Whats the point in showing us this hand?

2/9/2006 9:18:16 PM

typhicane
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^HE IS THAT GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2/10/2006 7:57:48 AM

steviewonder
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alright pilgrimshoes I have sat through the last few days in anticipation and suspense, you gotta tell us what happened.

2/10/2006 1:35:20 PM

FeebleMinded
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Hehe I'm watching Turner now in a $150 while I play my $20. GL Jonboy.

2/11/2006 4:02:50 PM

FeebleMinded
Finally Preemie!
4472 Posts
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***** Hand History for Game 3535496092 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:20077603 Level:2 Blinds (10/20) - Saturday, February 11, 16:17:10 EDT 2006
Table Multi-Table(594100) Table #22 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: JRAvila ( $970 )
Seat 3: PearlJammed ( $970 )
Seat 4: OWNED__ ( $910 )
Seat 5: riley1666 ( $1624 )
Seat 6: scruffpuff ( $1146 )
Seat 7: SaphireDragn ( $1970 )
Seat 8: MRPUTT1 ( $440 )
Seat 9: thugmoneymkr ( $920 )
Seat 10: slingshot77 ( $1050 )
Seat 1: riverking88 ( $1130 )
Trny:20077603 Level:2
Blinds (10/20)
** Dealing down cards **
riverking88 folds.
JRAvila folds.
PearlJammed raises [55].
OWNED__ folds.
riley1666 folds.
scruffpuff folds.
SaphireDragn folds.
MRPUTT1 calls [55].
thugmoneymkr folds.
slingshot77 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, Qh, Qc ]
PearlJammed checks.
MRPUTT1 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ]
PearlJammed checks.
MRPUTT1 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
PearlJammed bets [50].
MRPUTT1 folds.
PearlJammed does not show cards.
PearlJammed wins 190 chips

Did Jon flop a monster? Or did he buy the pot. This is so exciting. Not really, but hey, I'm bored.

2/11/2006 4:19:19 PM

NoidRoid
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I just watched turner bust out of a $615+$35 satellite on PS when he flopped a set vs some other guys straight


I'll look him up on PS or FT sometimes when I'm sitting around watching tv or something, it's pretty entertaining. I don't think I've ever witnessed him win a cent though, just bust out

I also watched him play the big(30/60, 20/40 etc) omaha 8 cash games last night for a little while, he lost a shit ton of money for that half hour but I have no idea how the session went overall.


Congrats turner, watching you lose money has become an entertaining way to pass the time between my own sessions of losing money

2/11/2006 4:53:49 PM

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