What's cemex?

1/17/2008 2:30:12 PM

I HOPE YOU GUYS HAVE CASH ON HAND IF YOU BUY TO GO UP B/C YOUR GOING TO NEED IT.

RECESSION = STOCKS GO DOWN, NOT UP, NEGATIVE, CRASH BOOM, BUYING TO GO UP MEANS NONO

1/17/2008 2:32:23 PM

From where did this guy come?

1/17/2008 2:38:34 PM

rabble rabble!

1/17/2008 2:41:58 PM

I am begining to turn slightly less bearish. I think we have some more selling to go but the market does not look seriosuly overbought to me anywhere but possibly tech.

1/17/2008 2:42:05 PM

I am thinking of selling my GOOG to get some cash on hand for buying sometime soon. It's about the only way I can put any money into the market anytime soon.

I got 10 shares at $343 and 4 more shares at $740. I still have a ~33% rate of return even with the loss on the most recent shares.

Thoughts?

1/17/2008 2:50:34 PM

Eh too late I sold it.
14 shares of GOOG for $610.50. 32.81% profit....no complaints here, although I'm regretting not selling when it was ~$740/share...

1/17/2008 3:10:01 PM

I can understand the financial struggles spilling over into Tech and other cyclical goods but why has energy stocks been getting the shit beat out of them this past week?? I thought the more value stocks espicially companies like XOM and COP that have been making killer profits wouldn't be as adversely effected. COP is down 12% for the week.

I was thinking about investing in some energy stocks so maybe this a good thing for me.

1/17/2008 3:26:33 PM

Granted I'd be more conservative if I was older, I can't imagine being about to retire and seeing something like this or worse happen.

1/17/2008 3:29:39 PM

Holy shit -- the DOW is down 300pts so far.

1/17/2008 3:33:46 PM

Getting close to that 12K mark...

1/17/2008 3:35:02 PM

think it'll shoot back up after 12k or shoot down?

1/17/2008 3:43:28 PM

lots of technical guys saying that charts suggest a continuing downside, especially through this quarter...

but there's also guys out there saying buying opportunities haven't been this good since 2002, but you have to be patient and able to hold back your lunch as to not puke on your computer screen.

in any case, it looks and feels like this right now:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bumbleclot

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bombaclot





[Edited on January 17, 2008 at 3:56 PM. Reason : [Edited on January 17, 2008 at 3:55 PM. Reason : dfsgdfsgdfsg]]

1/17/2008 3:44:43 PM

Quote :

"Granted I'd be more conservative if I was older, I can't imagine being about to retire and seeing something like this or worse happen."

Easy. Commodities.

Share prices going up or down are irrelevant unless they are compared to other items. So therefore something is always going up in value relative to other items and something is always going down in value relative to other items. Einstein's Unpublished Theory of Economic Relativity.

[Edited on January 17, 2008 at 4:11 PM. Reason : /]

1/17/2008 4:08:56 PM

btw, we'll probably see a bounce on the stimulus package that they've been talking about on the tv...and there's talk about an emergency rate cut, but that's a wild card

1/17/2008 4:16:11 PM

Quote :

"Gainers Last Change Change% There are currently no gainers today. "

1/17/2008 4:34:01 PM

Well, I'm up 1% for the past 12 months right now.

1/17/2008 4:42:13 PM

Total gain: $1.84 0.05%

And to make things even worse....

Quote :

"Antidepressants may not work The effects of popular antidepressant medications may be in question, according to The Wall Street Journal. A number of studies showing that drugs like Wyeth's (WYE, news, msgs) Effexor and Pfizer's (PFE, news, msgs) Zoloft may not have any effect at all on patients were submitted to the Food and Drug Administration by big drug makers but never published, the paper reported. "

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080117markets.aspx

[Edited on January 17, 2008 at 4:51 PM. Reason : .]

1/17/2008 4:46:48 PM

^ive been saying that for years

depression is mental and placebos would do just as much as that crap. but thats for another thread

1/17/2008 4:53:47 PM

money market ftw right now

1/17/2008 5:08:48 PM

Quote :

"Share prices going up or down are irrelevant unless they are compared to other items. So therefore something is always going up in value relative to other items and something is always going down in value relative to other items. "

In some sense this is true, but complete economic loss is possible and indeed not totally out of the question right now. If the world's ability to satisfy human desires contracts then the value of underlying assets can fall.

1/17/2008 6:27:58 PM

Quote :

"From where did this guy come?"

lol, i usually just read whats posted, don't comment much until i saw everyone in here trying to make money to the upside in a recession. it doesn't really work, either sell your trades or insure your investments.

Quote :

"lots of technical guys saying that charts suggest a continuing downside, especially through this quarter... "

correct!!!

1/17/2008 7:06:15 PM

Quote :

"From where did this guy come?"

lol, i usually just read whats posted, don't comment much until i saw everyone in here trying to make money to the upside in a recession. it doesn't really work, either sell your trades or insure your investments.

Quote :

"lots of technical guys saying that charts suggest a continuing downside, especially through this quarter... "

correct!!!

1/17/2008 7:08:02 PM

or just stay passive...bailing out in a recession means you miss the following upswing...

and you cannot guarantee that it will go down tomorrow, no one can...efficient market theory

1/17/2008 7:09:26 PM

just dont look at your portfolio for 6mos people.

1/17/2008 7:10:42 PM

I'd say the bottom is coming in 4-6 months, reovery won't start until the 4th quarter at the earliest IMO

1/17/2008 8:45:07 PM

CASH IS KING

Too bad i have none.

Fuck.

1/17/2008 10:38:59 PM

hope it tanks till after march...yay slow pay on the bonus check

1/17/2008 11:34:46 PM

i say it is stagnant till q2 end

1/17/2008 11:40:55 PM

Quote :

"United for urgent action, the White House and Congress raced toward emergency steps Thursday to rescue the national economy from a possible recession, including tax rebates of at least $300 a person -- and maybe as much as $800."

this is quoted from yahoo...http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080118/economy_stimulus.html

so the actual definition of recession may be two bad GDP quarters..sorry economic advisers, were in one and if you don't like it like that, how about we've started....last week!!! maybe even before last week

1/18/2008 1:46:45 AM

i dont know about you

but 300 dollars or 800 for that matter does not help me out that much

and i'm not even getting it

i dont get how this helps anything

1/18/2008 2:02:57 AM

^ The only way it "helps" is Americans are supposed to take their $300 or $800 and go spend it on "toys" or whatever. That way businesses benefit from people having more money that they can spend. It's consumption.

It could work, it could not. For example, the reason the Fed injections of money over the past six months hasn't helped at all is because once banks receive the money, they're not lending it out, they're hoarding it. With people in debt, they could use the money to pay down their debt. This could help businesses somewhat as people that are behind on their bills could use the money to pay some of the balance. Or they could do what I would do, just put the money in my savings account, which is not what the government wants people to do as it defeats the purpose of giving us the tax rebate.

[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 7:35 AM. Reason : /]

1/18/2008 7:25:30 AM

Quote :

"the reason the Fed injections of money over the past six months hasn't helped at all"

The injections have helped. They've brought the TED spread down and the Commercial Paper discount spread down, which is what they were intended to do. You can't stimulate aggregate demand directly with the type of temporary injections they were doing but you can stop some of the financial panic which they did.

1/18/2008 8:28:28 AM

Cramer Rant number....7,362.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=624755222

Actually pretty good.

[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 9:04 AM. Reason : /]

1/18/2008 8:54:02 AM

up 130 right now i doubt it will last

1/18/2008 9:42:25 AM

UA (Under Armour) down another 20% today... down 60% since August and about 30% of that in a few days.

1/18/2008 9:50:15 AM

I knew that stupid shit was just a fad...

1/18/2008 9:52:55 AM

Quote :

"UA (Under Armour) down another 20% today... down 60% since August and about 30% of that in a few days."

The traders at Wall Street are all going to rally around the battle cry: "We must protect this stock!"

1/18/2008 10:09:10 AM

Any thoughts on AMD?
In a low right now -- might be a good buy.

1/18/2008 10:37:07 AM

So, some of you may have been thinking about liquidating some of your portfolio. Now, as in the next few hours, might be a good time to do it.

This is options expiration Friday. In general that means we can expect to see quite a bit of volatility at the end. We could be way up or way down but there is serious risk to the downside.

I have heard 'round the blogosphere that the quantity of put options in place for Feb is significantly less than Jan. The issuance of a put reduces total downside risk in the markets. The buyer of the put has hedged against the market going down and the seller of the put has inherently less risk than the owner of the stock.

Reduction in outstanding puts therefore has the potential to increase downside risk and lead to a lot of selling at the end of the day. Nothing is ever for sure but the risk is there.

1/18/2008 11:02:32 AM

DOW only up ~30 now

[Edited on January 18, 2008 at 11:11 AM. Reason : ]

1/18/2008 11:11:14 AM

was not at computer during the runup. could not sell

1/18/2008 11:30:04 AM

I'd like to hear dirt on BAC if anyone has it. I am looking at a 7.3% dividend yield and rising.

Tell me why write downs inherited from Countrywide losses will force BAC to cut the dividend or their credit card exposure is too much to bear.

Much lower and I have got to hear some bad stuff to justify not going long on this one.

1/18/2008 12:21:18 PM

AMD should be doing well later in the year. probably a great buy, or wait a bit maybe. didn't a big arab investor buy up some AMD??? that made the cheap stock look even better..hah its cheaper than what he bought it too...lol

1/19/2008 1:12:09 AM

tell me when they have a better product than intel, especially for notebooks and mobile devices.

[Edited on January 19, 2008 at 2:08 AM. Reason : .]

1/19/2008 2:07:43 AM

everyone should be putting money in Tech which has been artifically been slumping thanks to the fucktards in financials.

1/19/2008 4:19:41 PM

^

I see several reasons why tech doesn't look good.

1) A coming recession. Recession is bad for consumer discretionary and business investment, the two largest sources of tech revenue

2) Constrained credit. Fast growing companies often have cast flow issues. Tighter credit standards could make that harder to manage

3) Issues with fixed income investment. High magin tech companies have to park their income somewhere. Likely in the very types of financial instruments which are seeing high defaults.

4) Higher risk premiums. In bad times there is a flight to quality. While this may held established giants like Microsoft for the tech sector in general it is bad.

5) International contagion. A lot tech profits are coming from overseas. I don't see how the global economy survives a big US recession.


The major upside that I see is the falling dollar but I think it is overwhelmed by the negatives.

1/20/2008 4:18:12 PM

Quote :

"a big US recession."

What makes you think we're going to have a big recession?

1/20/2008 5:19:37 PM

Aren't we already in the midst of one?

1/20/2008 5:20:09 PM

^^

There are several events going on at once, each of which could cause a recession.

1) Collapse in construction spending. By this I mean home building is falling and looks to fall further. Commercial real estate is also experiencing high vacancies, impling a reduction in construction. This decline in construction the start of most US recessions.

2) Credit collapse. Of course there is the subprime / CDO crisis. But there are also credit cards, commercial mortgages, prime residential mortgages, home equity loans and corporate bonds and credit default swaps. All of which are likely to experience far higher defaults and losses to bank balance sheets.

For every dollar a bank losses on the balance sheet it must reduce lending by approximately ten dollars. This will lead to a collapse strong contraction in lending

3) A decline in home prices that is unprecedented in history. This cuts collateral that household would use to back loans. This is combined with coming out of a period of growth in US consumption that was clearly unsustainable will lead to a sharp reduction in consumption growth and perhaps an outright decline in consumption.


Essentially US consumption was supported by a combination of rising asset values and loose credit. As that unwinds it is hard to see how there is not a sharp slowdown in US and indeed global demand.

1/20/2008 6:37:19 PM