And I'll wait for you to show how the NAS report, which found the same levels of statistical validity as M&M (to the point where the numbers were almost identical), so much so that it stated that we can only be certain that the earth is warmer now than it was 400 hundred years ago, is a repudiation of M&M. Wikipedia is known for censoring anti-AGW folks (there are a few well-known crusaders on there who sole job seems to be to protect pro-AGW articles), so it's no surprise that the wiki page on that W&A, which is STILL listing niggling details, makes the claim that M&M is totally debunked.

9/26/2014 1:05:34 AM

Quote :

"jeez white ppl are dumb "

I guess that means the whole world is dumb, eh?



Results of a UN world survey.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

9/26/2014 9:48:16 AM

Quote :

"I guess that means the whole world is dumb, eh? "

Yeah, actually.. the whole world IS dumb, at least the governments. Do we need to go through some examples...

9/26/2014 11:06:57 AM

I've heard bits and pieces of stories about NC CRC's panel on ocean rise recently and found out I know one of the panel's members... I bet this person is going apeshit over the stupidity of the NCGA. This person is extremely smart, pragmatic, and level headed. I'm certain they played a central role in the panel and report... and I can tell you, this person wouldn't susbscribe to "liberal fear-mongering" over climate change. They know the science and the facts. Sure, they can't say that without doubt, "sea level will rise x inches in y years", but this person can make a really fucking good estimate based on facts, sound modeling, and sound engineering judgement. I've seen this stuff first hand as well

How much more do you need to know than "coastal developers didn't like the results and wanted to modify the report to shorten the outlook so that the "bad" results don't show up". Holy fuck. Then McCrony appoints these developers to the CRC... goodbye sweet coast.

[Edited on September 26, 2014 at 11:29 AM. Reason : .]

9/26/2014 11:26:23 AM

[Edited on October 9, 2014 at 2:59 PM. Reason : why bother]

10/9/2014 2:58:13 PM

"Antarctic sea ice has hit a new record maximum, but scientists say this is even more proof of global warming."
http://www.aol.com/article/2014/10/08/antarctic-sea-ice-hits-an-all-time-high-nasa-blames-global-warming/20974708/

This is not really that hard to believe. The thing about Antarctica is that it is often too cold for it to snow. Warming the planet a bit might increase humidity and therefore allow increased snow fall.

[Edited on October 9, 2014 at 10:03 PM. Reason : .,.]

10/9/2014 10:01:18 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

Temperature goes up? Global warming.
Temperature goes down? Global warming.
Temperature stays the same? Global warming.
More storms? Global warming.
Less storms? Global warming.
Same number of storms? Global warming.
Less ice? Global warming.
More ice? What else: Global warming.

10/11/2014 1:01:56 AM

So what is it precisely about the explanation of increased moisture caused by AGW leading to more ice that you find implausible?

10/11/2014 1:17:41 AM

Someone from the National Snow and Ice Data Center thinks the Antarctic ice maximum might be attributable to:

Quote :

"The unusual sea ice growth in Antarctica might be caused by changing wind patterns or recent ice sheet melt from warmer, deep ocean water reaching the coastline, according to scientists at NSIDC. The melt water freshens and cools the deep ocean layer, and it contributes to a cold surface layer surrounding Antarctica, creating conditions that favor ice growth."

http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-continues-low-while-antarctic-reaches-new-record-high

10/12/2014 10:56:53 PM

There's natural variation. I can pretty much guarantee that there will be months and years in the future where there is more ice than the present or recent past. Doesn't change the fact there is an overall trend though.

10/12/2014 11:18:54 PM

You just showed a 36 year trend for the Arctic. But historically that's not a long time. Similarly, the global temp hasn't increased in 18 years. Wonder if that'll have to extend out to 36 years before being recognized as well.

It's worth noting that the lower amounts of ice in the Arctic could also be caused by changes in wind and ocean currents as well. And its not like this hasn't happened before.



[Edited on October 13, 2014 at 3:55 PM. Reason : k]

10/13/2014 3:54:48 PM

OKay, that pic does not look so big on mobile...

^ point was that from year to year, there's going to be years with way more ice, that doesn't mean anything for a longer trend.

And last I heard, we were supposed to be getting much cooler than we have been, but climate change has been breaking this cycle. IOW, the natural cooling period we're supposed to be in is being cancelled out by warming, and when this cooling cycle starts to end, the warming will get even more dramatic.

10/13/2014 4:58:37 PM

Quote :

"the global temp hasn't increased in 18 years. "

False.

Quote :

"-The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75°C (1.35°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), topping the previous record set in 1998. -The global land surface temperature was 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), the second highest on record for August, behind 1998. -For the ocean, the August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F). -The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for the June–August period was also record high for this period, at 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), beating the previous record set in 1998. -The June–August worldwide land surface temperature was 0.91°C (1.64°F) above the 20th century average, the fifth highest on record for this period. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average, the highest on record for June–August. This beats the previous record set in 2009 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). -The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–August (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.3°F), the third highest for this eight-month period on record. "

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

10/13/2014 5:11:33 PM

^ is that before or after they adjust all the previous temperatures down via their "corrections"? also, comparing things to their 20th century averages is not exactly a great way to make statements about trends over the last 18 years, especially when 14 of those aren't in the 20th century... #imjustsayin

[Edited on October 14, 2014 at 12:56 AM. Reason : ]

10/14/2014 12:53:06 AM

LOL still talking about the "corrections"

10/14/2014 2:17:02 AM

Sigh, it's not "false". It's acknowledged in the latest IPCC report as well as by many of the more well respected scientists in the climate change community.

[Edited on October 14, 2014 at 8:26 AM. Reason : *by]

10/14/2014 8:26:02 AM

^^ Because there is no satisfactory answer why almost half of the temperature trend for the 20th century is due to corrections from one dataset to the next, with NO explanation to support those corrections. If the order of magnitude of your corrections is the same as the order of magnitude of the trend, it brings the trend into question.

10/14/2014 10:40:34 PM

I corrected them.

10/14/2014 11:03:55 PM

^^
It's probably been talked about why the data has to be calibrated at least a dozen times in this thread. That's not really an issue, that's part of any data collection.

10/15/2014 12:56:45 AM

Time of observation corrections:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/vose-etal2003.pdf

The vast majority of observations from the early part of the century were takenin the afternoon, but taking observations in the morning became the preferred protocol, slowly, from the 1950s to present.



Change from mercury in glass thermometers to max/min and other automated thermometers:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027069/abstract

Mercury in glass is less accurate and has been shown to systemically bias to cooler measurements. This paper shows that an overall adjustment cannot be made to the entire data set and forced climatologists to back and make station by station adjustments.


These two together probably make up something like 2/3 of all temperature adjustments. The rest are using stats to look at regional differences in temperature to tease out heat island effects and other errors. These effects are legit, have been measured and debated extensively. I really don't mind critiques of adjustments, because that's science, but don't come at it like they are this nefarious plot and scientist lack good faith. "OMG they've never been documented".......just shut the fuck up already

10/15/2014 7:42:22 AM

Those are great explanations for why there would be an initial adjustment. That completely fails to explain why EVERY series of adjustments, from V1, to V2, to V3, to V4, and probably onwards, continues to push pre-1970s temperatures downwards and post 1970s temperatures upwards. The continued adjustments is what I am saying is not explained.

And, again, when the order of magnitude of your corrections is the same as the magnitude of the actual trend, it is troubling, to say the least. When close to half of the trend is due to corrections? That's more than troubling.

Oh, and as for "taking out heat island effects", that's bullshit. Adjustments for UHI were actually removed from the datasets in many cases, despite the known warming bias of UHI.

[Edited on October 15, 2014 at 4:04 PM. Reason : ]

10/15/2014 4:02:36 PM

They are continually revising and improving their adjustments. That second paper I posted is a perfect example. At first they just applied an average adjustment for instrument changes, but that paper shows it's better to take a closer look at the individual stations and apply an adjustment individually.

I can see how the magnitude of some data sets adjustments could be worrisome. What convinced me was Berkeley Earth's techniques, where they make no (or extremely very few) adjustments but use several statistical techniques to homogenize the data and down weight those stations with breaks in their trends. They still found warming, and the trend/magnitude was similar to what the techniques using various adjustments had found

UHI is real but many data sets chose to stop including it because they found it had little to no effect on the overall temperature trend.

10/16/2014 7:16:05 AM

cold and snowy already this year.

TAKE THAT GLOBAL WARMING! AMIRITE, HUH, HUH?

11/19/2014 1:19:59 PM

buffalo is like the new bangladesh (or something)

11/19/2014 6:57:19 PM

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/20902/20141126/end-times-signs-half-of-americans-and-majority-of-white-evangelical-protestants-think-climate-change-equals-apocalypse.htm

He he, scientists can't use all that science to convince people we need to do something, but looks like churches have used magic to get people to believe climate change is from the devil.

11/27/2014 3:37:58 PM

So is this a manifestation of the transition from "climate change isn't real" to "climate change is real, but...."?

11/27/2014 4:52:02 PM

Lima climate talks begin tomorrow. Even mediocre news would be an outstanding break through. Here's to hoping the US-China climate deal will be the jumping off point!!!

11/30/2014 5:45:50 PM

nothing about last year being the hottest year on record?

1/16/2015 6:44:15 PM

It's amazing how you can have that when "scientists" keep adjusting all the previous years downard, with no explanation

It also doesn't help your scientific credibility when you tout as major news a "new record" that falls an order of magnitude LOWER than the statistical error of the calculations. Science, or politics?

1/16/2015 11:36:35 PM

nope

1/17/2015 3:47:57 PM

Man, driving from SLC to SoCal and back over the weekend, I saw a lot of solar panels. The huge field outside Vegas looks awesome. Prepare to start seeing more of these cropping up everywhere,

1/21/2015 11:30:55 AM

that one always looks neat when flying cross-country

1/21/2015 11:34:05 AM

it won't look so cool when the terrorists hack into the control room and weaponize it.

1/21/2015 6:37:15 PM

Oh snap! Willard has joined 2015...
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/22/romney-i-believe-in-global-warming/
And not even the weenie (Well, yeah, the climate changes naturally all the time...)

1/23/2015 8:20:28 AM

At this point Willard would get behind a 90% capital gains and millionaire tax if he thought it would get him in the WH.

1/23/2015 1:46:56 PM

2/5/2015 10:59:28 AM

Alright, seriously science, what the fuck. I was just attacked by an adult wasp sitting on my back porch, in Salt Lake City, on February 12. It's 62 degrees here today! I was so fucking startled I threw the cup i was holding across the lawn. Enough of this shit, I'm going to buy a Prius tonight.

2/12/2015 5:01:27 PM

http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/warmest-winter-on-record-earth

Lies from the liberal conspiracy AM I RITE?
Obviously since the NE had record snow and February was SO cold in NC global warming is totally bullshit. Liberals have teamed up with weather stations around the globe to report false temperatures as part of the conspiracy to sway public opinion to pass green legislation to instigate the destruction of the US economy.

We must not believe the lies!!!!



Not to mention all the ski slopes in the cascades are struggling and we had a week long of sun in Portland while i was there on business in Feb which is unheard. Not that it doesn't happen but its been an ongoing trend the whole winter.

[Edited on March 18, 2015 at 10:31 PM. Reason : l]

3/18/2015 10:29:39 PM

***gasp***

Reason Magazine science writers starting to make legit arguments that the earth is warming?????

http://reason.com/archives/2015/04/03/what-evidence-would-persuade-you-that-ma


I kinda get the sense that climate denial is slowly waning. Sure, we won't see it wane in the 2016 elections and one can still pivot to "regulation is too expensive!!11!!" Etc, but the fact remains that the evidence is just pilling too high.

I'm most interested in watching the reaction to the inevitable coming El Niño (perhaps not this year, but soon) which potentially could release epic amounts of energy from the Pacific Ocean. I predict seeing way more articles similiar to the link above from an array of media outlets.

4/14/2015 10:39:40 PM

6/17/2015 2:45:55 PM

With the pope now asserting for global policy changes to prevent global climate change what will it take for the Republican climate denyers to get their head out of their assholes and just admit...

"hey i know 95% of world climatologists agree with the human caused climate change, the pope is advocating for policy changes to prevent climate change (we know how GOPers feel about relgion), but I frankly don't give a shit and am paid by energy companies to deny and label climate change as a conspiracy of socialists liberals to destroy america."

6/17/2015 7:21:32 PM

Well, first you're gonna have to give me something other than the roundly discredited claim of "95% consensus," then you're gonna have to give me something other than an appeal to consensus. Then it'd be helpful if your predictions actually came true. It'd also help if they stopped doctoring the temperature records. Finally, if they'd stop equating skepticism with Nazis, that'd be nice, too.

6/17/2015 9:59:41 PM

First, you're going to have to concede that significant portions of the West Antarctic ice sheet will inevitably melt into the Amundsen Sea.

6/18/2015 1:10:20 AM

It's already been well established that the Antarctic melting in that region is due to volcanic activity. So not sure where you're going with that?

6/18/2015 12:45:41 PM

Quote :

"It's already been well established that the Antarctic melting in that region is due to volcanic activity. So not sure where you're going with that?"

Is that what you read from the propraganda put out from the Heartland Institute?

6/18/2015 4:13:08 PM

But they just had their own Climate Conference with folks like Sen. James 'Mountain' Inhofe and a slew of dubiously funded scientists, so of course they are equally as credible as NASA and NOAA....

6/18/2015 9:32:54 PM

^^^

Could you point me to the scientific literature that establishes that West Antarctic melting is primarily due to volcanic activity?

All of the literature that I have read has established that West Antarctic melting is primarily due to climate change but may also be influenced by volcanic activity.


To answer your question:

Regardless of root cause, we should concede that inevitable sea level rise is the reality in which we live.

[Edited on June 19, 2015 at 1:19 AM. Reason : ]

6/19/2015 1:15:43 AM

Are you guys still trying to argue with these people? At this point, they aren't going to change their tune until their homes are floating out into the Atlantic. Lost cause.

6/19/2015 9:50:17 AM

I just want a climate denier to just come out and admit

"hey i don't give a shit"
"Wyoming would benefit from climate change"
"The Koch brothers pay me to vote against climate change"
"I think we have bigger issues to worry about and the magnitude of the human impact is minor"
etc etc etc

I'm just tired of these buffoons sticking their fingers in their ears and claiming all scientists are part of some conspiracy to ruin the economy. Sure there are probably scientists in the climate change camp that cherry pick data. Logically though there is more incentive to accuse scientists on the anti-climate change of cherry picking. As certain major sponsors of climate-deniers have more to lose.

Sure you can disagree with the scope and the magnitude of policy change that climate change activists want but simply denying human impact just makes one look like an idiot.

6/19/2015 4:00:56 PM

If they ever do admit it they are just going to blame it on blacks and mexicans anyway.

[Edited on June 19, 2015 at 5:37 PM. Reason : rice and beans causes global warming!]

6/19/2015 5:37:20 PM