Quote :

"NC Weather is a cock-tease."

You just now figuring this out?

1/13/2016 12:48:11 PM

have they made ready the dome?

1/13/2016 1:16:59 PM

GFS has been consistent with the snow tease, while the Euro is sticking to suppression of the southern stream. ECMWF is generally the king of the global forecast models, but we'll see if that holds true in the next day or 2.

1/13/2016 2:52:41 PM

^^Barbie is working on it, but he's still fighting off the lifeforce. Big Jim is trying to stop Barbie because he's convinced Barbie is still working for Christine.

1/13/2016 3:35:55 PM

Euro is the King....Cold Rain

1/13/2016 8:03:41 PM

How cold? Frozen?

1/14/2016 10:39:26 AM

Euro not favoring much - just a dusting max

American model is davoring a dusting with up to 2 inches.


Atleast last year, euro was right most of the time but this is el nino year so who knows.

1/14/2016 10:48:44 AM

Quote :

"Central Carolina Skywarn 15 hrs · From the Raleigh National Weather Service at 4:18pm today: One of our forecasters put the write-up below together, because during the past few days we've been hearing so much about a potential winter storm on Sunday. It's a little long, but well worth your time as it dispels many of the internet and social media rumors you may have been hearing about a big winter storm on Sunday. ----------beginning of post---------- Many of you have probably seen or heard in recent days (mis)information in the (social) media regarding a big snowstorm over central NC on Sunday. That information, and the resultant hype, has been primarily a result of "perfect progging", or taking literally, the forecast solution from just one of the many numerical weather prediction models that are run multiple times per day and are used as guidance to make a forecast. Rarely does the real atmosphere ever behave exactly how a single model suggests it should. If it did, there'd be no need for professional meteorologists. The forecast solution of a big snowstorm for central NC on Sunday from that one model (the GFS model) was the result of the perfect alignment of several different weather features of interest that would come together to produce a significant coastal storm (nor'Easter) along the eastern seaboard. The probability of all of those features coming together perfectly is very low; and even in that "best case" scenario for a big snowstorm on Sunday, there were still "ingredients" missing to support a big winter storm for central NC, most notably the presence of cold air from surface high pressure of polar or arctic origin (that is, the cold air has to be here already). In the aforementioned GFS model, the cold air surface high was simulated to be well to the north and west of what would be considered a favorable position for a winter storm in central NC. As such, surface temperatures with that solution would have been only marginally conducive to support snow at the surface (ie. temperatures would be mostly in the 32-35 degree range - not ideal for significant accumulating snow). Furthermore, that one model solution had very little additional support from other model guidance; and now that one model that was showing the big storm has backed off considerably in the most recent three model runs and is now depicting the forecast solution that the other models have been showing in recent days. That is, a surface low track suppressed well south and east of central NC, with no direct impact at this latitude. Instead, very light precipitation may indeed occur over portions of central NC early Sunday morning, and perhaps again Sunday night, but such occurrences would not be directly tied to the fantasy snowstorm, and would instead be a result of the approach of a couple of the weather features coming from the northeast Pacific and Canada. That light precipitation may fall as a mix of light rain and snow over the Piedmont, if it actually occurs, with only minimal impacts expected, if any at all. ----------- end of post ------------ We are planning to share more info about the items covered above in an additional updated briefing that we plan to post on Friday. Also, please take a moment to review the attached single-slide graphic relating to social media and winter storms (courtesy of the NWS Norman office). As always, if anything changes or if we expect anything of significant impact, you'll be certain to get a briefing from us."

1/15/2016 9:06:52 AM

What do you mean I cant just take the one armageddon model every week and consider it fact!?!?!

1/15/2016 10:00:34 AM

NC Piedmont is the worst offender for sure.

1/15/2016 10:15:46 AM

If there wasn't a low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region, we'd probably see some snow today (and probably an eventual change to rain) with this system moving in.

As for Sunday, it's still possible we may see SOMETHING, but that something would just be flurries/dusting. Certainly not anything to get in a tizzy over. The upper level trough looks like it's gonna stay positively tilted too late, allowing the surface low to bomb out over Florida and stay far enough away from the coast. Guess we'll have to move on to the next system to see what it does on Thurs/next Fri.

1/15/2016 10:18:23 AM

Nc peidmont is the worst

1/15/2016 10:36:49 AM

frozen

cloud

ejaculate

1/15/2016 2:31:26 PM

so now it looks like a little snow just west of raleigh, the line somewhere near Durham?

1/16/2016 3:15:36 PM

I can't wait to see 2 flakes tomorrow!! I'm going to get to use my 4wd in my truck!!

1/16/2016 3:23:16 PM

Coming down good here in Franklinton. Ground is covered for the most part.

1/17/2016 11:00:56 AM

mostly rain, but some snow about an hour ago here in johnston county

1/17/2016 11:16:58 AM

aww I'm so happy for you guys!

can't wait to see all the deck furniture pics

1/17/2016 11:23:54 AM

1/17/2016 11:38:52 AM

^

1/17/2016 12:30:50 PM

it was pretty this morning watching the snow fall while eating brunch, there was a lot of snow coming down around 10-11

1/17/2016 1:16:36 PM

Looks like friday could be interesting. vA and above are going to get shit on.

1/18/2016 10:43:47 AM

I believe the 440 Forcefield will keep us safe.

1/18/2016 1:31:49 PM

icy shitshow here friday morning?

1/18/2016 1:50:42 PM

Barring a significant shift south we are gonna see mostly rain but agreed VA through DC could have a shitty weekend.

1/18/2016 2:08:23 PM

Apparently people thinking this is trending more South than expected, if pattern holds...sounds like we might have a bunch of rain, a bunch of snow, or a bunch of shitty ice.

Guessing it'll go North so it'll just be cold and rainy, per the usual around here.

1/18/2016 2:31:29 PM

sNOw or SNOW?

1/19/2016 8:11:40 AM

more like shitty ice storm

1/19/2016 8:18:43 AM

All signs for Raleigh point to a mostly non event unless you enjoy cold rain with the occasional wintry mix. It is possible we see some ice which is shitty but that seems to be more a foothills western piedmont issue. Will know more tomorrow into thursday once the low actually forms and we can get a better idea on how north or south its heading. Someone is gonna get fucked pretty hard but fairly confident those people will be north and west of us per usual.

1/19/2016 8:22:28 AM

i'm just concerned that the forecast Thursday night is below freezing and they are calling for a little snow or rain, the Friday morning commute might be a cluster fuck

1/19/2016 8:47:51 AM

*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*Its GOING to ICE*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*

Actually, we'll probably know better in the next 24 hrs once the storm system reaches the west coast & we can finally get some upper air obs to work with.

[Edited on January 19, 2016 at 8:51 AM. Reason : ]

1/19/2016 8:48:53 AM

My winter beater is currently out of commission with a starting issue. My only form of transportation at the moment is the sports car on summer times.

Thus we'll probably get slammed

1/19/2016 10:10:34 AM

Headed to Blowing Rock and Boone on Thursday morning. Fingers crossed for that 10 to 15 inches they might get.

1/19/2016 12:57:12 PM

12z Euro

1/19/2016 1:25:57 PM

even if we do get anything its bullshit it would be on a friday night

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/19/east_coast_blizzard_will_impact_washington_new_york_boston.html

1/19/2016 1:32:04 PM

I thought the weather nerds were still saying change over/ice for RDU?

1/19/2016 1:32:49 PM

Quote :

"even if we do get anything its bullshit it would be on a friday night"

lol no

this will definitely impact RDU (I assume you're talking about Raleigh) early Fri morning and through a good bit of the day Sat

1/19/2016 1:35:09 PM

This map LOL

Pretty sure this is just assuming all precip that falls is snow. Fine print says varying ratios, so I guess that can be anywhere from 6:1 to 10:1. Think we can go ahead and say this is probably an extreme upper limit. Ensembles should give a clearer picture for this run.

[Edited on January 19, 2016 at 1:46 PM. Reason : ]

1/19/2016 1:39:16 PM

^^ i'm mostly saying the timing is lame

1/19/2016 3:11:31 PM

Hide yo wife

1/19/2016 3:11:45 PM

worthless for RDU.

1/19/2016 3:25:19 PM

4-6" friday morning would be enough to get most out of work at least haha

1/19/2016 3:30:08 PM

lol yeah, no doubt

If you're able to take Fri off, I sure would. Not worth getting out in that mess, IMHO.

1/19/2016 3:36:00 PM

Worst case scenario is if the snow doesnt start until mid morning where bosses will expect people to come in then we get that cluster fuck with people all trying to drive home once it starts.

1/19/2016 3:45:15 PM

Then it takes you 5 hours to get home.

Id gas up thursday night if anything

1/19/2016 3:46:43 PM

weather.com shows "Ice to rain" with temperatures b/w 34 and 39 on Friday... I believe them.

1/19/2016 3:54:41 PM

weather.com

ha.

I mean, I have little confidence in the other forecasts, but never in weather.com

1/19/2016 3:57:22 PM

What? Weather.com shows 1-3 inches of snow for Friday and 1-3 inches of snow for Saturday, which matches right with the 2-6 inches being projected.

There will be rain/sleet surrounding the snow though, so seems like a total mess.

1/19/2016 4:01:42 PM

Bread and milk. Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk Bread and milk

1/19/2016 4:10:12 PM

Soooooo, I probably shouldn't drive to Asheville this weekend?

1/19/2016 7:02:19 PM