i wonder where we'll be in a year

1/20/2008 7:00:57 PM

I can't say baby where I'll be in a year.

1/20/2008 7:03:18 PM

Euro Markets are in freefall this morning. When I first looked the German index was down 7% equivalent to an approximately 800 - 900 point fall in the Dow. There is some recovery but it looks like a true capitulation in the European indices.

I take this as a broad realization that they will not survive a US recession.

1/21/2008 8:03:18 AM

Been watching Bloomberg for 40 minutes, have not seen a green stock ticker symbol yet. Looks like the Dow futures are off ~350 points right now, but things are improving.


Also, I don't know why CNBC can't have market programing on holidays. The rest of the world is open!!


Looks like Bobby's prediction is coming true - AAPL just above at 150 in Euro trading.

[Edited on January 21, 2008 at 8:40 AM. Reason : cnbc]



[Edited on January 21, 2008 at 8:49 AM. Reason : AAPL]

1/21/2008 8:39:40 AM

The scary thing is that AAPL is being pulled down by the market, not not even by the reasons I pointed out.

1/21/2008 8:53:58 AM

Good--I'm thinking about buying back into AAPL when I accumulate some more money in my acct

1/21/2008 9:02:43 AM

holy shit this is getting ugly

1/21/2008 12:09:48 PM

I'm confused.

Google Finance and Yahoo Finance still have all the charts and trade values up from the 18th, but Yahoo Finance says the markets are open are close at 4pm like normal.

Are they actually closed for MLK day or what?

[Edited on January 21, 2008 at 12:42 PM. Reason : edit: Ok, I see they're closed. Stupid Yahoo Finance. Delays the killings one more day...]

1/21/2008 12:41:30 PM

Quote :

"AP Photo: People watch a giant screen showing the Bombay Stock Exchange index on BSE building in Mumbai, India, Monday, Jan 21, 2008."

1/21/2008 12:43:09 PM

Dow futures closed down 514 points.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

If the earnings reports are bad tomorrow morning we could be looking at the largest gap lower opening in history.

1/21/2008 12:48:51 PM

WORLDWIDE RECESSION!!
HIDE YOUR MONEY UNDER YOUR MATTRESSES!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!

1/21/2008 12:56:34 PM

i wish the markets weren't closed today...we could've used the overlap to go ahead an price in some of the panic, instead taking a sucker punch first thing tomorrow morning

1/21/2008 2:48:54 PM

Looks like this is going to hurt... So much for diversification...

I guess I am locked into some losses until the end of the year, lol.

1/21/2008 3:59:43 PM

stock market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6gCeV1nkxE

1/21/2008 5:23:05 PM

like i said 2 pages ago. dont look at your portfolios for 6 months. it will only lead to bad decisions. stick it out

1/21/2008 5:44:25 PM

Or you could cash out, and wait for the bottom to hit in 3-5 months, and then get back in

1/21/2008 6:57:20 PM

^ no
^^ yes

1/21/2008 8:09:13 PM

Quote :

"Or you could cash out, and wait for the bottom to hit in 3-5 months, and then get back in"

worst idea ever

1/21/2008 8:33:19 PM

Quote :

"But there are also credit cards, commercial mortgages, prime residential mortgages, home equity loans and corporate bonds and credit default swaps. All of which are likely to experience far higher defaults and losses to bank balance sheets."

can you back this up with substantial data / analysis besides just..."this analyst said so"?
im not sure anyone can...which is a lot of market hype to me...

anyways, i own SDS (ultrashort S&P ETF) going into tomorrow - bought it fri. morning to offset losses in long equities

market is quite oversold on the short term, not that that is a reason to buy long, but what if we test some lows tomorrow and have a significant bounce back soon?
of course, the question is how long that will last

who knows!

1/21/2008 8:37:07 PM

What are you guys talking about ^^ and ^^^?

1/21/2008 8:50:42 PM

No dead cat bounce.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNCuQ.1w0vRQ&refer=home

Paul - I'll respond tomorrow, but those aren't analyst opinions those are my own.

[Edited on January 21, 2008 at 9:21 PM. Reason : paul]

1/21/2008 9:20:32 PM

wait wait thats karl, my old econ professor
thats all you had to say, haha i honestly do trust your opinion!
i want to hear yoru reply

1/21/2008 9:27:01 PM

Glad I got out of GOOG when I did. Now I have cash to buy in when things are cheap.

1/21/2008 10:35:32 PM

1/21/2008 11:58:55 PM

This is the bull leaving us.

1/22/2008 12:26:22 AM

that cat's about to have a mean fall, let's hope he has nine lives LOL

1/22/2008 3:54:11 AM

surprise rate cut this morning?

1/22/2008 7:27:48 AM

^

I don't see that, but I would have liked to see a press conference called and handled like this

http://modeledbehavior.blogspot.com/2008/01/bernanke-needs-to-speak-tomorrow-before.html

Europe seems to be stabilizing which is good, but BofA had profits fall 95% this morning. And here is the thing - Dow futures lock down at minus 650. In other words, the futures are not allowed to drop more than 650 in a single day, thus traders at minus 540 start to worry about the lock limit and don't trade in as heavily.

There could be more pent up supply



TNX hit my target of a yield 3.5% over the night. Yields look to move lower this morning. We coud see 3.45 to 3.4 today.

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 7:50 AM. Reason : TNX]

1/22/2008 7:46:24 AM

Ok that was wrong - 75bps.

That does shock me. With the meeting so close I would have expected language rather than cuts and certainly not 75 bps. This is shocking to me.

I would have thought we were moving further away from the Fed put.

My guess is that the Fed heard from analysts over the holidays who said that Ambac and MBIA are toast. If I heard a good solid report on that I would have supported 75 bps before the open.

1/22/2008 8:38:14 AM

^^^ Just happened. The Fed cut 75 percentage points.

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 8:40 AM. Reason : /]

1/22/2008 8:38:38 AM

you mean .75 percentage points.

1/22/2008 8:40:45 AM

In light of the rate cut, i just read this article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/hftn/080121/011808_cure_fortune.html

Scary read in terms of increasing inflation and the every falling dollar..

1/22/2008 8:44:36 AM

^^^

Just a note if the terminology is confusing

75 bps = 75 basis points = .75 percentage points

In finance mostly we speak in terms of basis points because a percentage point is typically a large movement or spread.

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 8:56 AM. Reason : .]

1/22/2008 8:56:28 AM

jesus...

1/22/2008 9:33:37 AM

down like 450

1/22/2008 9:35:38 AM

Eugh, is nasdaq.com down?

1/22/2008 9:41:49 AM

i think everyone wants to watch the slaughter

1/22/2008 9:42:35 AM

cavuto is talking bout how it could hit bear market in interday trading today...thats -729 iirc

1/22/2008 9:43:34 AM

Eugh, wish it hadn't come back up...

NASDAQ 2267.78 -72.24 3.09%
DJIA 11786.83 -312.47 2.58%
S&P 500 1288.04 -37.15 2.80%

1/22/2008 9:49:12 AM

DJ Indu

11,850.56

-248.74


Nasdaq Comp

2,278.85

-61.17


S&P 500

1,294.35

-30.84

1/22/2008 9:53:05 AM

Ok well, this is not that bad so far.

We can handle 350 points. It looks like the rate cut, so far has stabilized things considerably. When futures were at minus 525 before Wachovia and BofA reported I was concerned that we could be down 1000 points.

Quote :

"cavuto is talking bout . . . "

Are you watching Fox???

This is a CNBC, Bloomberg only situation. Fox is only to be watched for humor purposes.

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 10:04 AM. Reason : Fox, really?]

1/22/2008 10:02:27 AM

CSCO a good buy right now?

1/22/2008 10:12:43 AM

Quote :

"i think everyone wants to watch the slaughter"

Everyone slows down to look at a car crash.

1/22/2008 10:26:21 AM

only down 150 now

1/22/2008 10:29:40 AM

look at those people buying stocks after the selloff

850 new lows today, record since 1990

sold off my last bidu puts this morning....HEHEHE, wow over 300% on my last two contracts...
PUT/SHORT THE MARKET



[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 10:57 AM. Reason : PhAnToM TrAdEr]

1/22/2008 10:44:14 AM

I cant even log into my ameritrade account - site is getting hammered.

1/22/2008 10:47:36 AM

Everyone ready to BUY BUY BUY when things bottom out?!

1/22/2008 10:51:30 AM

i inched into margin in my dad's account, so i might have to sell some etfs. i just want to get him out of that margin balance so i don't have to worry about it. i'm not selling much else otherwise - atleast not until we see a near term bounce - i hope we see that with MSFT earnings etc.

1/22/2008 11:00:41 AM

MS, SHLD, and DFS are way up today.

1/22/2008 11:39:45 AM

hey y0000000000000000


buy low, sell high.

thats what i say

1/22/2008 11:41:17 AM