9

2/18/2009 11:53:30 AM

This isn't chit chat you asshat.

2/18/2009 12:02:12 PM

too scared to pull FAS at $6

2/18/2009 12:06:59 PM

Im looking to get out with minimal damage. My basis is 6.91. If it retraces to the 6.75 range or so I might bail out. I also may just sell a march 7.50 and lower my basis down to 5.91. Something is going to happen to financials sooner rather than later. I think the recent plunge is because of the uncertainty. The two scenarios will be Geithner will come out with a new statement that seems to make sense and it moves back up. Or nationalization, which would smash the RFIN. They keep walking a tight rope and I think the cat is out of the bag now and we all realize that most of the big banks are toast and can't be saved under current accounting rules. The only thing that will boost this sector is if the taxpayer picks up the tab and buys the toxic junk for much more than it is currently trading at. I don't put this outside the realm of possibility to be honest, but it's a crapshoot as to which way this administration will go. As soon as I can get out of my position I won't touch it to hold (maybe to day trade) it until there is some sort of resolve.

2/18/2009 12:13:45 PM

This market is just retarded. He hasn't said shit yet about anything and FAS and other indexes are just nosing over.

2/18/2009 12:29:10 PM

playing with some FAS at 5.87, not too much though.

OCA: stop mkt 5.60 - limit 6.30

[Edited on February 18, 2009 at 3:18 PM. Reason : ]

2/18/2009 3:14:42 PM

Eh. I'm holding my FAS through the end of the week so the options can expire. I'll start selling March calls on it next week.

While I've taken a loss on it, I did enough option trading on FAS and FAZ since late November to nearly cover my loss.

2/18/2009 10:23:30 PM

ive split it up. Ive got about 30% of my IRA in GLD which tracks the physical price of gold.

Then i've got 50% of my 401k in fidelity select gold fund. It's comprised mostly of the larger miners but also holds some bullion and silver i believe. The miners should be the only profitable stocks for the forseeable future. Natural resources are cheap right now which makes mining inexpensive, the supply of gold is relatively low given inverstor demand, and these guys should be looking to expand their operations. It doesnt hurt that most of those stocks got CRUSHED just a few months ago in the downturn when gold dropped temporarily.

Once the Federal Reserve and Treasury stops manipulating the gold market by secret short selling operations look out. At some point this will become far too expensive for them to keep up the charade. The long term price must go higher. Although, I would expect a sharp pullback in the short term (next 2-4 weeks or so) as the gov't makes a last ditch effort to restore power over the market.

Once we breakout over $1,030 thats when the fireworks will start going off.

2/19/2009 7:17:19 AM

sold my FAS at 6.21 for a 5% gain. i think it can go lower.

2/19/2009 9:36:20 AM

back in at 5.75... OCA order at 5.49 stop mkt and 6.20 limit

[Edited on February 19, 2009 at 11:49 AM. Reason : ]

2/19/2009 11:25:23 AM

Quote :

"Which gold equity are you in?"

IAU


..also, i'm taking some advice from the guys on Fast Money and buying CRXL & SWC

2/19/2009 11:59:42 AM

also:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Indian-buyers-dump-gold-embrace-platinum-15342-3-1.html

there was some guy from Barclays on CNBC Europe saying that atleast 10% of gold's value comes from Indian cultural propensity to accumulate the metal as means & symbol of wealth. if he's right, there's about $100 in the price of gold that's subject to some movement (perhaps out of Au and into Pt) in light of a cultural shift. in any case, platinum is gaining popularity also because of its industrial uses. watch for palladium to start getting some attention too.

2/19/2009 1:16:09 PM

Gold has de-coupled from all traditional metrics
gold/platinum
Gold/Silver
Gold/anything

bubble anyone?

How about - doomed to collapse when sentiment shifts again?

2/19/2009 2:08:13 PM

FAS killing me today hehehe

2/19/2009 3:13:37 PM

when it collapses/bursts, it'll be down for a long long time, and i think i will settle in the $500s.

the thing is, precious metal's have largely been pegged inversely to the dollar - that's already played out in the price in the run from $400 to $800. i think the run from $800 to $1200 will be due to the run on the Pound Sterling, Euro, and Yen. If there's a run through $1500 approaching $2000, those will be the late gamers, and most of them will have their bubble burst. good luck timing it all though, your guess is as good as mine...

2/19/2009 3:14:53 PM

^^ Indeed. I have THE worst timing imagineable. I had my 401k sitting on the sidelines from mid September right up until Nov 20. Looking at the chart, you can see the S&P had only a modest decrease from the initial plunge that ended October 10 all the way through Nov 19. It was all fairly sideways. So, I shoved my 401k back in just in time to catch that 9% down day. Of course, all the news at that point was horrendous and armageddon was near and I could see visions of S&P 4-500 in the near future so I immediately pulled it out and missed the next 2 day recovery. I sat wounded until I managed to stick my nose into FAS again around the 20th of January. Sat out again until a week or so ago when I figured I'd play with it again but this time have a bit more protection and freedom to move with options just in time for the shit to go down 45% in a few days. It's simply unreal how terrible my timing has been. This time I'm just gonna say fuck it and if the financial sector implodes and wipes out my FAS investment, good fucking riddance. If it recovers anywhere near the 6.50 range or so in the next week, I'll get out with the small loss and say goodbye to these things forever. I'm a better poker player than a "what the hell is the fed going to say to fuck the market today" player.

[Edited on February 19, 2009 at 3:30 PM. Reason : .]

2/19/2009 3:28:41 PM

Dont worry we have all done some pretty stupid things that make us hate our lives.

EXIDE TECH (XIDE) 97 16.5722 1,607.50 3.11 301.67 -1,305.83 -81.23

That right now I would consider my worst mistake so far in trading, yes I still hold the shares, if you look at the charts you will see where I bought the damn things haha. I always thought it would eventually start going back up and then at some point it became too big a loss to sell so now Im just kinda stuck with it until I just really need that 300 bucks or it decides to ever get remotely near that price again.

Also if we dont bounce here in the last 30 minutes today or dont see a significant one tomorrow then I will catch you guys at 6800 or so on the DOW

[Edited on February 19, 2009 at 3:37 PM. Reason : .]

2/19/2009 3:35:05 PM

The thing is, I know full well how much these things move around, I'm fine with that, and I'm not looking to get rich off them. If you look at all the sideways periods since Nov 20 there is ample opportunity in there to make a play and either not get hurt too bad on the movement or make a little bit of a return. Then there are like 4-5 days out of all of them that really stick it to you. Somehow, I have managed to wade back in on 3 of those days.

Honestly, I don't think FAS gets much out of the 5-7 range in the near future. I can't really know what the RFIN will do if any of the big banks will get nationalized or FDIC'd. I should probably just cut my loss here, but I'm hoping that the fed will take long enough that maybe we see a bit of turnaround into the mid 6s before the next big news story.

2/19/2009 3:45:44 PM

watch out tomorrow. down we go

2/19/2009 10:48:39 PM

Quote :

"sure you did"

Yeah. I did.

Chump.

2/20/2009 12:27:50 AM

Wow, FAS getting devastated. I'm hoping to snag a July 5 put and sell covered calls on this shit for several months. At the moment, my loss is about 900 (1200 with the put) and hoping to sell about $150-200 worth per month of calls to limit the loss.

2/20/2009 9:21:18 AM

HOLY SHIT

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO BANKING IN THIS COUNTRY? This is insane.

2/20/2009 10:49:28 AM

The big banks are insolvent. I dunno why I decided to wade into FAS like a moron when I knew this already (even have posts on this very site stating as much). If the nationalize or fdic the ones that are in the most distress, BaC and CIT at this point, then the RFIN takes a nasty beating and FAS tumbles with it. I honestly don't know what will happen to FAS in that event. I suppose it would take a huge hit, but if what is left of the RFIN isn't weighed down by the toxic debt, it could go back up.

I've bought a July 5 put. so My max loss right now is right at $1200, or 50 percent. I'm hoping at the very least I can sell the calls and claw some of that back. It would be nice to sell some March 5s and maybe some April 5s for $1 each, lowering my loss to $600, then, assuming FAS is still in time out, the July 5 put will be worth 3 or so and I can sell it back making my total loss in the 3-400 range. That is about the best I can hope for at this point. Thank god for options.

2/20/2009 10:59:46 AM

"we're sorry, we could not log you in to Scottrade, your account has been PWNT."

2/20/2009 11:18:43 AM

I have yet to execute an option

took a small loss on FAS yesterday after being up in it $300 for the day. bullet dodged again!

[Edited on February 20, 2009 at 11:33 AM. Reason : ]

2/20/2009 11:32:41 AM

You should look into them. I really thought about buying July 5s early in the week when they were trading at 1.40, instead I paid 2.25 for em. I got stayed greedy and paid a price there. Actually, if scottrade gave me more flexibility to trade naked I'd be a lot better off. I could have sold naked March 5s yesterday for 1.25 which would then be covered after expiration today. By the time I get to trade on Monday they'll only be worth .75 cent if I am lucky.

[Edited on February 20, 2009 at 11:37 AM. Reason : .]

2/20/2009 11:36:50 AM

wow GE nearing $9

2/20/2009 11:45:10 AM

the stock market looks horrible and there doesnt seem to be a bottom anywhere near
and Bank of america stock stopped trading for some reason

2/20/2009 11:52:51 AM

and it just keeps dropping...

I wonder if my parents are going to have to move in with me when I'm 25 because they can't retire. That would suck...

2/20/2009 12:08:52 PM

2/20/2009 12:50:42 PM

Just touched 7285 - hello 1997

(7197.49 was the October 9th, 2002 intraday low - 7286.27 was the close)

[Edited on February 20, 2009 at 1:00 PM. Reason : .]

2/20/2009 12:54:13 PM

Shocker, I took a position at 4.30 earlier and jumped on that announcement too soon and sold out of it at 4.60, its now trading at 4.80.

Dumb dumb dumb.

[Edited on February 20, 2009 at 2:25 PM. Reason : .]

2/20/2009 2:24:46 PM

who cares you made SOME money this jump is such crap.

2/20/2009 2:51:15 PM

yesterday i made a gentleman's bet with our head finance guy that we would not close a single day below 7000 for the Dow. the time frame was until the end of May. he thinks we'll test 6500 by then.

2/20/2009 3:22:22 PM

would it be dumb to buy some shares of bank of america now, thinking that once we get out of this mess, it may go up?

2/20/2009 3:43:22 PM

some may call it dumb, but the only money I make in this market is flipping financials.
Nationalization or not, I could not pass up BAC today at 2.71. It was worth the risk of loosing it all.

Its the same story every 2 weeks for the last 3 months with financials. They get hit hard but rebound the next week.

2/20/2009 3:48:02 PM

you know how we do

2/20/2009 4:00:05 PM

So over or under 6 weeks for GM to declare bankruptcy?

2/20/2009 4:18:56 PM

6 sounds about right

2/20/2009 4:23:07 PM

Quote :

"yesterday i made a gentleman's bet with our head finance guy that we would not close a single day below 7000 for the Dow. the time frame was until the end of May. he thinks we'll test 6500 by then."

i've been saying 6500 since october, and my time frame was by the end of march. Whats the figure on your bet. My buddy and I bet one wendy's jr. bacon cheeseburger.

2/20/2009 4:34:48 PM

$1

2/20/2009 5:38:36 PM

Bets for this week?

I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out.

Talk of bank nationalization....Obama wants to raise business taxes....no good.

[Edited on February 22, 2009 at 5:59 PM. Reason : ]

2/22/2009 5:56:51 PM

6500 is the bottom.

im calling it

[Edited on February 22, 2009 at 6:00 PM. Reason : haha shit didnt read the post a few up]

2/22/2009 6:00:13 PM

It ultimately depends on how long it takes for some action about the banks begins. The longer they go without a plan, the more selling off will occur. There is nothing ahead of us in the next month that should cause any appreciable rally. I don't see any reason for 6500 to be the ultimate low any more than 7000 or any less than 6000. The market could react to the stress test news in one of two ways

1) Holy shit, these banks are royal fucked and we really are headed for an L shaped recession and it will take a little bit of time to find the ultimate low.
2) These banks are in rough shape but nothing we can't handle. Time to value hunt and the market has already found its ultimate lows.

I'm tending to lean towards #1

2/22/2009 7:01:42 PM

apparently nationalization is a good thing.

2/23/2009 9:24:41 AM

i'm selling at the end of today and then i'm done for a while and am waiting until 6500

2/23/2009 10:57:19 AM

Bought some HBC $40 March Puts at $6.90.

[Edited on February 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM. Reason : strike]

2/23/2009 12:35:45 PM

I too am trolling for a little bit of put buying.

2/23/2009 12:41:46 PM

Might not be a bad time to take a piece of ERX. Or, if you are afraid of the decay, buy some puts on ERY.

2/23/2009 1:30:06 PM

bought some DXO at $1.88

gonna sell at $2.10 if possible

2/23/2009 1:56:43 PM