^^^ i was saying that when gold was at 775 and people still thought that was stupid.

You just cant convince people otherwise sometime.

I'm not buying gold right now but that's because I already have enough for my liking right now and I certainly wouldnt sell it for a mere $1200/oz.

Maybe I'll sell around $2,500 or so in a few years... but even then probably not.



Oh yeah this whole "contagion" is off the table is ludicrous. Sounds like the same bullshit they said about the housing market in 2007.

I'm still long for obvious reasons but the U.S. is on deck for the currency crisis without a doubt.

[Edited on May 11, 2010 at 6:07 PM. Reason : a]

5/11/2010 6:04:55 PM

If I'm buying physical bullion, it's not with the intent of selling it in a few years, unless I really have to. It's insurance and it's savings at the same time, and it's sure as hell better than keeping dollars in the bank. In past periods of hyperinflation, people were sometimes able to buy entire blocks of real estate with one or two ounces of gold. Gold has been used as money for 6,000 years. This entire idea of "we don't need our money to be backed by anything" is relatively new, because it makes absolutely no sense. Fiat currencies fail 100% of the time, because government promises are worth approximately nothing when all is said and done. A stock can go from 500 dollars a share to 50 cents a share in a day's (or hour's) time.

A lot of people are into gold and silver mining stocks, which is more risky than bullion, but can yield a much better return. I don't trust gold stocks, because there's no way of knowing if the gold is actually being stored somewhere. However, you can make some decent cash by shorting gold stocks. I don't play that game, but I know of people that do.

There's a lot of talk about rhodium right now, but I haven't done much research on it. It's been doing some interesting things in terms of price, so we'll see. I think all of the precious metals are worth owning. Even the industrial metals have been doing well.

If you buy into the "owning precious metals is for lunatics" line of thinking, that's fine. Don't take my word for it. You owe it to yourself and your family to research it for yourself. I think the current economic situation, as it relates to gold and silver, is not all that different from the late 1970s. Even the mainstream networks are talking about inflation now, because almost everyone understands that our national debt cannot possibly be paid through legitimate means. Our bond market will look something like Greece's in the next few years, but unlike Greece, the question will not be "do we cut spending/raise taxes, or do we beg ECB and the IMF to give us money," it will be "let's just have the Federal Reserve buy our bonds." Politicians, for the most part, are not capable of doing anything that substantially threatens their re-election. When that times comes, you'll see the price of gold and silver spike, not only because of a weakening dollar, but because people are using it as a hedge against inflation.

5/11/2010 8:20:29 PM

Quote :

"Gold has been used as money for 6,000 years."

Well food and sex have been used as money for longer than that, perhaps you should load up on bread and prostitutes.

Quote :

"fiat currencies fail 100% of the time"

What a stupid thing to say. You could say everything fails 100% of the time on a long enough timeline.

Quote :

"A stock can go from 500 dollars a share to 50 cents a share in a day's (or hour's) time."

You can lose your ass in gold too. It's just a commodity.

Quote :

"You owe it to yourself and your family to research it for yourself."

What that the world is going to end and in the mad max world to come all that will be worth anything is gold? I work for a real investment company, I know there are much better investment strategies than gold bullion.

5/11/2010 9:35:56 PM

Yeah, in the long term gold is a piss poor investment. Just like all other minimal utility items it is nice to have in a depressed economy and a huge albatross in a a boom economy. I'd much rather have my money in something else in both the short and the long term. Ultimately gold is just a shiny rock that only has value because of relative scarcity, it has virtually no utility or functional value.

5/12/2010 5:14:31 AM

Damn. Wish I'd known about the BIDU 10:1 split and the resulting 9% surge today.

5/12/2010 3:42:00 PM

Fuck my life--I shouldn't have taken that bird in the hand yesterday!

I felt like I'd pressed my luck enough and was due for a whammy, though.

5/12/2010 3:46:01 PM

back into SSO @ $39.87



(whoops, fuck me.)



[Edited on May 14, 2010 at 10:04 AM. Reason : ]

5/14/2010 9:52:55 AM

^ Still sitting on the SSO that I picked up at $38.48. Sold May 41 covered calls Monday at $1.32 and just bought them back at $0.48, hopefully reselling at 40 or 41 on Monday.

Just picked up a bit more at $39.27.

Also, I was thinking about picking up a Germany ETF in the hopes that weaker euro would lead to increased exports, but the sinking euro doesn't seem to be doing anything for the price yet.

[Edited on May 14, 2010 at 3:52 PM. Reason : .]

5/14/2010 3:47:04 PM

Picked up some NFLX at ~$100 and some AMZN ~$128.

5/14/2010 4:08:11 PM

There is no way I'm going long here, not yet anyway. In fact, I would say this week was a great chance to get out of some longs. It is all about the dollar/yen carry trade and the Euro is in absolute freefall right now. During the trading day the powers-that-be are trying their hardest to avoid another "flash crash" and prop it, but look what has happened to the Euro as soon as the market closed. It's going to find support somewhere but it has smashed through all support so far...so until it does, the market direction is down.

5/14/2010 4:47:43 PM

I'm going long SHRIMP - thank you BP

5/17/2010 10:03:49 AM

5/17/2010 12:02:50 PM

Bought NFLX at $100.50 on Friday. It topped $105 today so I sold in the money May $105 calls at $4.10 each.

If it gets called away I'm making 9% in a week, and if not I've already lowered my cost basis to $96.40. All in all I feel pretty good about that trade.

5/17/2010 3:37:08 PM

http://seekingalpha.com/article/205612-market-correction-nearing-an-end?source=email

5/18/2010 9:10:48 AM

I need to stop paying so much attention to CNBC and listening to it on Sirius in the car during the day.

Whenever there's an up day they get a bunch of cheerleaders on to talk about how the bull market/rally is back and on down days they get a bunch of chicken littles on to talk about how this is the beginning of a double dip.

Midday yesterday when it was way down they even had a guy on predicting that the DJIA would hit 5,000 before the end of the year.

5/18/2010 1:56:52 PM

yeah, that article was on their website today.

5/18/2010 2:27:23 PM

Quote :

"Bought NFLX at $100.50 on Friday. It topped $105 today so I sold in the money May $105 calls at $4.10 each."

Bought the calls back at $2.05 today. Hopefully we'll get an up day tomorrow and I can resell.

If not I'll just push it out another month.

5/18/2010 3:57:45 PM

Can you school me on covered calls? I kinda-sorta understand them, but I've never actually done them, and don't really know any of the strategy(ies) with them.

5/18/2010 4:01:14 PM

Quote :

"Midday yesterday when it was way down they even had a guy on predicting that the DJIA would hit 5,000 before the end of the year."

I'm reading a book right now that's predicting the same thing...basically saying that we're going to continue to deflate the massive credit bubble and with the baby boomers past thier peak spending age, we're doomed to a 15+ year depression. They're saying the same thing that happened in Japan during the lost decade will hit the US, but on a much larger scale.

Then again, with a book title like "The Great Depression Ahead", I did expext it to be a one sided argument. I hope they're wrong...pretty sure they are. The author does reference charts and historic trends to back thier claims...who knows. He can be convincing at times

5/18/2010 5:16:42 PM

I bought netflix at 97.25 and sold at 107.36.

Was depressed when it surged to 116. I do want to scoop up some $95 calls if the market dips tomorrow.

5/18/2010 6:52:40 PM

^^ the only way we turn into Japan is if we get as anti-immigration as they are.

i disagree on deflation. we've chosen to inflate our way out of the second great depression. thus, stuff will cost more relative to the value of paper that is supposed to represent it. the answer to that is to make more stuff, and hence acquire more inputs that go into making stuff...

in the mean time we will have several small cyclical inflationary bulls, with the real secular bull probably not arriving until 2026. i have a theory on 2026 -- that's 20 years (one generation) from the 2006 equilibrium that occured between productivity, equity values, and derivative values... that's a long winded conversation.

as long as we don't get too anti-supply side, we should be fine. the balance is a hard one to strike. we will constantly need to make, acquire, dig and drill for more stuff.

...this is where it gets difficult, and why resource wars (the only REAL reason wars are fought) have historically been unavoidable. i'm willing to bet the change in my pocket that preceding every major conflict in recorded history, M1, M2, and M3 have spiked.

thanks to Manifest Destiny and preservation of the Union during the 1800s, we're secured the bounty of the land, and all the resources that go with it. however at some point we are going to have to go ahead an man up and admit that the black stuff is either running out or hard to find, and thus is a shitty way of fueling the economy.

"Going Green" is national security issue as much as it is an economic issue - ultimately the two cannot be divorced. Thomas Friedman labels it "Energy from Heaven" vs. "Energy from Hell".

sorry you just had to read a sort of abstract on a research paper, but that's my way of saying we're commited to avoiding a deflationary spiral.

5/19/2010 12:28:14 PM

that said, my limit on AAPL just hit. picked up some at 245.5

5/19/2010 12:30:28 PM

Picked up some NFLX calls June $95 at $10.40 and some Corning June 16's for $1.95.

May purchase some shares aapl too.

5/19/2010 2:02:20 PM

geez, how overvalued is the market still is the question, based on REAL EARNINGS.


The post above a few notches is dead on.

If you are betting on deflation you are risking your entire net worth to win a few percent.


Better get the timing right, go for your 20% short term correction.

I like being able to sleep at night and being long commodities and commodity producersm for 50% of my portfolio.

The time to bet on inflation isn't when it happens, it's before it happens.

Materials, gold, silver, oil producers, agriculture, etc. You simply can't be wrong long term.

If you decide to go the other way take the high quality stocks of the world who are still making money. Trust me, you don't want to be in any speculative low quality stocks while we drift back down to S&P 850.

[Edited on May 19, 2010 at 8:07 PM. Reason : A]

5/19/2010 7:57:50 PM

Man it still looks ugly out there. I was proven justified maintaining my short position this week, however I initiated it with terrible timing two weeks ago so I only broke even overall...if only I could figure out how to make money now. SDS works fine if you time it perfectly, but wow you go underwater quick if your timing is off...and then the volatility destroys your return. If I go short again I will probably just use a larger position SH and not worry about the leverage.

For what it's worth it looks like the EURUSD has stabilized and bounced this week, yet markets are still selling off. I really cannot decide if this is bearish or bullish? One thing is for sure, volatility is up, so I dipped into QLD yesterday and today playing for at least a small bounce. I think the overall play still has to be from the short side, every attempt at a push up is being sold.

5/20/2010 1:48:43 PM

also, I added to my long term SNY position today, that stock has been destroyed the last few months and I am more than happy to lower my cost basis here

5/20/2010 1:52:28 PM

picked up some $uco june 9 calls this morning - hoping oil finally turns back around....

5/20/2010 3:06:51 PM

I just put in an order to shift my entire managed portfolio over to money market. I can make that trade quickly, then decide if I want to allocate to anything else. I promised myself that I would follow my gut, and if the trickle continued to dow 10,000, I would sell out and sit on my profits until we find a new bottom and get on an upswing. There are too many questionable things happening abroad right now, and no one really knows how they will shake out.

5/20/2010 4:55:59 PM

hey press

shut the fuck up

you are just causing more fear and making shit worse

god damn

5/21/2010 9:05:34 AM

The CNN directors must be shorting a lot of stock and want to create a self-fullfilling prophecy.

5/21/2010 11:48:37 AM

Quote :

"Can you school me on covered calls? I kinda-sorta understand them, but I've never actually done them, and don't really know any of the strategy(ies) with them."

It's mostly just a good way to generate a return in a flat or down market. You're immediately getting cash in your pocket without taking on any liability, you're just limiting your upside.

I'll generally go out one month on my blue chips holdings and sell at a strike price a few percent higher. Sometimes on all of it and sometimes just on half or less. It's very useful on big stuff that pays a dividend but mostly stays flat. GE, T, and lately BP are some that I use that on. The only time that I regularly go longer than a month out is if I want the expiration date to be after a dividend date. Selling near the dividend date can also work pretty well as you know it's going to drop after.

It's also useful in a volatile market. I made a killing last summer just by selling covered calls on up days and buying them back on down days. With high-premium stuff like SSO I've actually done well by buying in, selling calls at say $40, buying back on a down day, then reselling at $39 and just walking it down as the market drops, but still made a good return.

A key point is to stay aware of what's being called away. If you do a healthy number of calls monthly then after while some of your best performers will be called away and you'll be left with a shit portfolio. Generally when I have something called away I'll turn around and sell a put at the same strike price a month out.

The main reason I did the NFLX trade earlier was the ridiculous premium that was possible on a stock that I like.

5/21/2010 3:33:23 PM

apparently my limit buy on EDC hit at $21 even on Friday...

5/24/2010 10:21:15 AM

I had most of my JBHT called away in March at $35 after selling those calls at .65 in January when it was still in the low 30s.
Turned around and sold April 35 puts at .80 which expired.
Sold May 35 puts at .55 and just had them put to me.
Turned around and sold Jun 35 calls at .85.

Ended up making $2.85 per share over 2 months while the stock stayed mostly flat.

5/24/2010 3:50:52 PM

damn you Kim Jong Il!

5/25/2010 8:49:10 AM

BUY 4 AAPL $241.7899 $974.16

5/25/2010 2:49:12 PM

As much as I hate the feeling when the market takes a hit like this, it's a good feeling seeing my portfolio outperform the hell out the market during.

5/26/2010 3:46:48 PM

just picked up some DGP

5/26/2010 3:57:01 PM

got out of FAS and into FAZ this morning. Might pull out before the close, who the hell knows what will happen over the weekend

5/28/2010 2:06:04 PM

Sold Jun $105 calls on NFLX for $5.20 last Friday.

NFLX at $111.26 now.

5/28/2010 3:20:26 PM

And bp proves yet again why its almost never a good idea to buy stocks on their way down

6/1/2010 9:33:57 AM

Shit. Credit Suisse came out with an estimate today saying that the total cost for BP could be as much $18 billion. They're stock is already down way beyond $60 billion.

Their profit for Q1 was almost $6 billion.

It's already oversold.

6/1/2010 2:19:36 PM

Yeah, the P/E is at 5.9.

I'm thinking about picking some up.

6/1/2010 2:29:29 PM

I don't care what the P/E is. What is more important is the Foward P/E. This get vary drastically depending on how much the gov't decides to lay the smackdown for and any in progress class action suits.

6/1/2010 2:37:41 PM

I think the bigger issue here is that you'd be investing in a company that is responsible for the biggest oil spill in US history. My standards are by no means high, but I have to draw the line somewhere for a quick buck.

6/1/2010 3:17:37 PM

I've been thinking of going long on 'RIG'

Would that be more or less stupid than going long on BP?

6/1/2010 3:28:03 PM

^^ It'll complement my Phillip Morris and Altria Group stock.

[Edited on June 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM. Reason : oh, and also Shuffle Master]

6/1/2010 3:29:21 PM

^^^ If it makes you sleep better, BP is also the third largest producer of solar panels in the world and one of the leading producers of wind power.

Or you could invest in it and then give all of your profits to oily seals or some shit.

6/1/2010 3:36:42 PM

Well, fuck it, bought 100 shares of BP. We'll see how this goes.

6/1/2010 4:09:49 PM

Well, if it goes down I can lose money and get my ass kicked by a marine.

Great way to start the week.

6/1/2010 4:14:31 PM

eh, i was thinking about doing it anyway.

whatever, what am i gonna buy with that money right now, anyway? I'm pretty sure that, at a minimum, it'll go higher than $36.50 sometime between now and november when I get home.

6/1/2010 4:20:15 PM