Romney +6 among LV in Gallup.

No candidate has ever been 50+ this late in election cycle and lost.

Rasmussen has Romney +1.

+ Haha, Romney is +22 in the South. Probably still little chance of electoral college calculus getting him over the hump. Obama wins at or above MOE in every other region.

[Edited on October 17, 2012 at 1:31 PM. Reason : X]

10/17/2012 1:24:44 PM

whats LV?

10/17/2012 1:53:03 PM

likely voters.

or this guy:

10/17/2012 1:56:38 PM

538 still looking...decent. Looks like there will be a bump.

10/17/2012 3:23:55 PM

Quote :

"I'm actually fairly OK with this. If he was a part of al-Qaeda, I don't really care if he's an American, especially if he's in Yemen. "

He was a 16 year old kid from Denver. There's no reason to assume he was a part of al-qaeda.

Quote :

"He wasn't even the one being specifically targeted, he was just a bystander."

We don't know that. Because the drone program is clouded in such secrecy, the state department doesn't even have to acknowledge its very existence, let alone comment on why a 16 year old American was A) Killed, B) targeted, C) Falsely identified as a 21 year old "combatant."

Quote :

"The guy they were going after lost all right to a judicial form of due process due to his high-level involvement in al-Qaeda, same as any other terrorist"

1) we don't know who they were going after, because they won't confirm anything.

2) you can keep hanging your hat on the perceived difference between "judicial process" and "due process," but do understand that this is a term that was popularized by Eric Holder as a means of working around the 5th amendment for American citizens.

(http://www.salon.com/2012/03/06/attorney_general_holder_defends_execution_without_charges/)

Quote :

"They're using a legitimate ambiguity in the literal language of the Constitution to target Americans overseas who have aligned themselves with terrorist organizations. I have no problem with this."

YOU. DO. NOT. KNOW. THIS. The President says, "trust me, he's a bad dude." And you're just accepting him at his word, even though WE KNOW, FOR A FACT, that the state department has outright lied in THIS VERY INSTANCE by labeling a 16 year-old American as an Islamist militant and identifying him as a 21 year old. We KNOW, FOR A FACT, that this administration uses the term "militant" to describe all military-aged males regardless of their history or political alliance. If they have been caught blatantly lying about these critical issues, then why the fuck would you be 'okay' with them using these powers without oversight to order the extrajudicial assassination of American citizens?

Quote :

"Let me know when this actually starts being abused. Until then it's a non-issue."

The president has given himself, and EVERY PRESIDENT THAT FOLLOWS, the authority to target any American citizen, anywhere in the world, and have that person assassinated without trial. And he's done it three times already, with one of the victims being a teenager from Denver. I'm pretty fucking certain that qualifies as a abuse.

But maybe people will start to give a shit when it happens to a white girl in the bahamas.



[Edited on October 17, 2012 at 4:38 PM. Reason : fiiifff...not 4th]

10/17/2012 4:30:45 PM

I now have a sudden urge to watch Dangerous Minds.

10/17/2012 4:33:25 PM

They will give a shit when it isn't Obama.

10/17/2012 4:34:02 PM

Quote :

"No candidate has ever been 50+ this late in election cycle and lost."

[Edited on October 17, 2012 at 5:49 PM. Reason : :]

10/17/2012 5:48:34 PM

So I posted this on the first page, well before the first debate,



and after recent polling mostly conducted after the VP debate and before the second debate, nothing has changed. Obama's firewall of WI/OH/IA is holding strong, mostly due to early voting which he's winning anywhere from 66%-75% of in OH and IA. 271 is his floor, Romney can. not. win.

[Edited on October 18, 2012 at 7:01 PM. Reason : :]

10/18/2012 6:57:38 PM

ibtfamous last words

10/18/2012 7:06:42 PM

10/18/2012 7:48:53 PM

^In NC Gary Johnson and the write-in spot are the alternatives on the ballot to Romney and Obama.

10/19/2012 8:19:37 AM

Looking at the demographics it is fair to say that in this election cycle the GOP is a regional party (South). I've never heard of splits like Romney is getting.

Anyway, as Gallup shows Romney +7, Obama got very good polls in two swig states yesterday, IA and WI. If he wins those and holds on in Ohio Romney can win 100% of the Souths vote and still have no way to the presidency.

Fascinating numbers coming in daily.

10/19/2012 8:38:29 AM

Im wondering if he will hold onto Va

10/19/2012 8:48:54 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/19/about-that-gallup-poll-is-romney-really-up-by-7-and-will-obama-win-the-election-anyway/?wprss=rss_business



Some context around that Romney +7 poll. It's heavily weighed down by the South which he was already going to sweep anyway.

10/19/2012 9:43:28 AM

is there any data on how accurate these sort of predictions have been in the past?

10/19/2012 9:55:59 AM

If you can handle reading it all, yes http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

[Edited on October 19, 2012 at 10:50 AM. Reason : .]

10/19/2012 10:23:31 AM

that doesn't do anything except lock my browser up

10/19/2012 10:30:53 AM

Try it now

10/19/2012 10:50:28 AM

Gallup is very clearly an outlier at this point. Every other national tracker either shows a dead heat or a slim Obama lead, even right leaning ones like Rasmussen.

Quote :

"Im wondering if he will hold onto Va"

If you were to put a gun to my head, I'd still stick with the prediction that he wins every state he did in 2008, less NC and IN. I'm most pessimistic about his chances in Florida, but I think a superior GOTV effort will put him over the top there.

[Edited on October 19, 2012 at 10:56 AM. Reason : Indiana]

10/19/2012 10:53:29 AM

Quote :

"Obama's firewall of WI/OH/IA is holding strong, mostly due to early voting which he's winning anywhere from 66%-75% of in OH and IA. 271 is his floor, Romney can. not. win."

Romney will take 2 out of 3 of those at the minimum.

10/19/2012 10:58:04 AM

What makes you say that?

10/19/2012 11:00:34 AM

(his gut)

10/19/2012 11:01:36 AM

Oh you mean that thing that produces shit

10/19/2012 11:04:55 AM

Gallup has been UNSKEWED.

10/19/2012 11:39:31 AM

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/colin_small_virginia_gop_voter_registration_fraud.php

Didn't they already have a different scandal in Virginia and maybe Florida and elsewhere?

10/19/2012 11:45:33 AM

Wow, there is a shit ton of Nate Silver hate on twitter right now. Yet not a single person has any idea what his model does. It's kind of funny reading the tweets.

10/19/2012 1:41:26 PM

They probably had no idea who Nate Silver was until they heard he was The Daily Show the other night.

10/19/2012 1:46:36 PM

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

10/19/2012 1:47:14 PM

Hahahahah yeah, they have absolutely no clue. Silver never "adjusts" his numbers. He sets his formula way back in the spring, and never touches it afterwards. All the changes in his forecasts are in response to inputs.

10/19/2012 1:51:02 PM

Quote :

"But the race changed dramatically, and my guess is that, right now, it’s probably a 50-50 proposition. (Silver would likely dismiss this by arguing that political commentators always think every election is a coin toss. But empirical evidence suggests the race is actually close. At the time of this writing, Real Clear Politics poll average has Romney up .1 percent.) "

Ahahahaha

10/19/2012 2:05:16 PM

WOW

10/19/2012 2:40:41 PM

Looks like the commentors there have it all covered.

10/19/2012 2:59:13 PM

This one's gotta sting for ole' Willard,

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/romney-obama-state-president.html.csp

10/19/2012 3:12:47 PM

Love this response from Nate on that DC article,

Quote :

"Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight If you don't like the 538 forecast, you can bet against it! Bookies have pretty much the same odds that we do. http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner …"

10/19/2012 4:50:14 PM

Quote :

"Hahahahah yeah, they have absolutely no clue. Silver never "adjusts" his numbers"

he did for the maine governers election and it was still wrong.

10/19/2012 7:43:38 PM

his system probably works fine for 2 party elections, but thats not really very interesting.

10/19/2012 7:52:51 PM

Gop on full propaganda mode

10/19/2012 10:01:45 PM

10/19/2012 10:08:32 PM

"Romney campaign begins pulling out of North Carolina"
http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/10/19/2422441/romney-campaign-begins-pulling.html

Quote :

"Romney campaign advisers had telegraphed the move on Wednesday, saying it was considering moving staff from North Carolina into states long considered safe for President Barack Obama such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Associated Press reported. The Obama campaign said rather than downsizing, it had in recent weeks added organizers in North Carolina. “This signals to North Carolina voters that the Romney campaign is taking their votes for granted,” said Cameron French, the chief spokesman for the state Obama campaign. “The Obama campaign remains fully committed to North Carolina, while Republicans are adopting a reverse strategy from 2008,” French said. “On the first day of early voting, as our supporters turned out in droves to cast their ballot for President Obama, the Romney campaign is pulling up stakes and turning its back on hard working North Carolinians.”"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/18/romney-pulling-staff-out-of-north-carolina/

Quote :

"“The Romney team doesn’t ask me for advice, but pulling resources out of a state where early vote started today and there were lines wrapped around block to vote for the president when you have a narrow path to 270 doesn’t seem like a smart strategy,” Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in response to the announcement. "

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/romney-campaign-begins-shifting-out-of-north-carolina/

Quote :

"Both campaigns poured more ad money into battleground states this week, including North Carolina. At $828,000, Romney's campaign spent less than Obama's campaign at $880,000."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1014.pdf

Quote :

"Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Mitt Romney taking a small lead in the state, 49-47."

Romney is probably going to win NC. But this might be reflective of the health of the campaign's overall ground game.

10/19/2012 11:29:22 PM

It's not even close in NC.

10/20/2012 7:49:53 PM

How is it October and there are no posts from Genuisboy about Tagg Romney owning the e-voting machines.

10/21/2012 7:19:23 PM

probably because he prefers Romney over Obama

Quote :

"Romney will take 2 out of 3 of those at the minimum."

I don't see him taking any of them, esp. not WI, like if the race went badly enough for him to win IA we'd start seeing post- pre-mortems for our country right about now.

10/21/2012 9:25:47 PM

http://www.technicianonline.com/news/passion-pit-plays-dj-set-for-obama-support-1.2780966#.UITHB8XA-w0

Quote :

"To celebrate the occasion, several student groups and organizations held rallies and celebrations. Among the politically-charged events Thursday was "Wolfpack for Obama present: Passion Pit." Attracting students who support either President Barack Obama's reelection campaign or Passion Pit's music, or both, the free concert drew more than 500 spectators to Harris Field Thursday afternoon. Sponsored by Students for Obama, the event brought students together to celebrate the opening of early voting and was set up to educate them about where to vote and how to register."

10/22/2012 12:11:14 AM

I am hearing reports in OH that 21% of voters have early voted and among them Obama leads 54%-39% at this time (A Quinnipac number).

10/22/2012 9:12:42 AM

Iowa too.

My question is how does this affect polls? Would you not be less inclined to answer a robopoll if you already voted?

10/22/2012 9:16:37 AM

You gotta love the media's desperation to make this a close race. A poll comes out with Obama +5 in Ohio and the narrative is "the race has tightened". Meanwhile, polls showing Romney +1 or +2 in Florida and it's "Romney solidifies lead in sunshine state".

Also, Nevada is all but gone for Romney, which means Obama has a path to victory even if something fishy goes down in Iowa.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/first-weekend-of-early-voting-favors-obama-in-battleground-nevada-20121022

Quote :

"About 53 percent of the voters who turned out on Saturday and Sunday in Clark County, the state's most populous, were Democrats, while just 31 percent were Republicans. The 22-point disparity is higher than the 15 points by which Democrats outnumber Republicans—a sign, the party says, of the field organization Sen. Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats have spent a decade building."

Things are getting really desperate for Romney, expect a McCain-esque 11th hour push in PA or something similar.

10/22/2012 12:00:57 PM

Quote :

"As both presidential campaigns ratchet up their efforts to capture Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, recent polling suggests the race might already be over—for Mitt Romney. Certain key data from the latest polls suggest that President Obama’s victory in the Buckeye State could be a foregone conclusion — because each survey suggests that President Obama holds a double digit lead among those who have already voted. SurveyUSA’s poll showed Obama leading 57 to 38 percent — a 19-point margin. Rasmussen Reports, a Republican-leaning pollster, found Obama leading by 29 points, 63 to 34 percent. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News showed Obama ahead by 26 points, 63 to 37 percent. A PPP poll found Obama leading by the largest margin of all, 76 to 24 percent. In all of these cases, the numbers cited reflect only those who have already voted. Another important indicator that bodes well for Obama can be found in the registration numbers. According to a memo released by the Obama campaign, four in five in Ohioans who have registered to vote this cycle are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino, which are all demographics that lean strongly Democratic. Additionally, almost two-thirds of Ohioans who registered to vote live in counties where Obama won in 2008. Other favorable statistics for Obama can be found in the early voting data. Specifically, 55 percent of the early-vote ballots requested in 2012 come from women, which is 3 percentage points greater than in 2008. Part of the reason the Obama campaign has been doing so well in Ohio (and swing states in general when compared to his national polling numbers), is that Ohio’s economy is doing better than the national average. Unemployment is currently at 7 percent, down from 7.2 percent, or 0.8 percent below the national figure in September. Many of those jobs are in manufacturing and were created by the auto rescue — sectors that have been a centerpiece of the re-election campaign. "

http://www.nationalmemo.com/is-the-race-in-ohio-already-over/

Quote :

"The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election. We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48."

PPP Poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1013.pdf

10/22/2012 12:05:39 PM

Nate's new article is a systematic bitch slap to everyone on both sides who question his partiality. Highly recommend a read...

And kind of funny about how the "liberal media" is reporting Gallup.

10/22/2012 12:06:49 PM

I don't know if this has been discussed at all or not but since the 2010 census the electoral college has shifted quite a bit. 12 electoral votes shifted, providing a net gain of 8 for states that lean republican. Texas got an additional 4 alone. It'd be even more of a run away for Obama had that not taken place.

10/22/2012 12:36:49 PM